New Shun 1730

The primary industry is hopeless.

What to rely on?

Rely on the secondary industry, rely on industry.

Only when the industry develops and the nitrogen fixation technology is solved, the predicament of the primary industry can be relieved.

Before that, the so-called "total national wealth" or "total productivity" can only be improved by the rapid development of industry.

Industrial development depends on capital.

To put it simply, if you want to build a railway, you need capital to build it.

Capital is capital.

Capitalists are capitalists.

These are not the same thing.

That is to say, it depends on capital.

Then we have to talk about that magical thing.

The invisible hand.

The invisible hand is a law, the law that water flows to lower places and hot air runs upwards.

This thing is not God, not Jesus, not Hu Da. It does not mean that by using this thing, Saint-Simon said that [capital will flow to socially beneficial undertakings, such as smelting, mining, irrigation, canals, etc.]

Or, using this thing, everything will be fine.

I still say that.

This thing is similar to the rule of "I like hot things".

It is a rule.

It is not the God of "God loves the world", there is no "personal love", but the ruthless rule of heaven.

A cup of 0-degree water and a cup of 15-degree water, under this rule, I will find 15-degree water.

And a cup of 15-degree water and a cup of 30-degree water, under this rule, I will find 30-degree water, instead of looking for 15-degree water like the former.

Wei Zheng said, "Water can carry a boat but can also overturn it", which means something similar.

The invisible hand, under certain conditions, that is [capital will flow to socially beneficial undertakings, such as smelting, mining, irrigation, canals, etc.].

And under another condition, it is like Dashun, financializing and hedging farmland, flowing to farmland, flowing to usury, and flowing to land rent.

Even if it is said that when Dayu was controlling floods, he had mastered the law that "water flows to the lowest place".

So, does it mean that Dayu thought, what's the point of controlling floods? Water flows to the lowest place, just let it flow, and it will be controlled naturally?

This is called letting nature take its course.

No.

It's not like that.

Rather, Dayu knew the law that "water flows to the lowest place".

Then he used this law to dig rivers and block river banks, so that the water "flows along the river channel that Dayu hoped for".

And this river channel conforms to the law that "water flows to the lowest place".

Of course, Liu Yu must bear the main responsibility for the Dashun School of Realism, a group of people who rushed to the trend of Saint-Simonianism.

He said half of what Marx said, kept half, or completely reversed it.

And Marx's thoughts are based on the critical inheritance and development of British classical political economy, French Utopian Society, and German classical philosophy.

Liu Yu said that half of this set of criticism, inheritance, and development should be kept, and some should even be practiced in reverse.

Then "criticism, inheritance, and development" will definitely be removed, and the source of thought will be rushed.

The essence of Saint-Simonism is: recognize the invisible hand, recognize private ownership, but use this law. I hope there will be a hand like the "National Credit Bank" to regulate, lure, hook up, and control - mainly lure - so that capital will flow to infrastructure, industry, development, canals, irrigation and other industries.

Everything is still based on "human selfishness" and "capital's profit-seeking nature", or it can be said that it is based on the "invisible hand".

What does Li Li mean by these words?

It means that since the invisible hand really exists, and water can carry a boat but can also overturn it, the capital that is now made by the invisible hand likes to run to farmland, like to run to hoard land and collect rent, like to run to land speculation, and like to run to pawnshops for usury.

Then can I think of a way to stop them from going there?

I said, can we educate them? Tell all the landlords, gentry, and businessmen, don't buy and hoard land, okay? For the future of the country, for the country, for a better tomorrow, invest in railways, mines, coal and iron complexes, okay?

Nonsense, of course not.

Because all this nonsense is useless.

The invisible hand will make them spontaneously run to land and usury.

Since nonsense is useless, can we think of a way to stop them from running to land and usury with the highest return rate?

Use administrative orders, national regulation, administrative policies, etc. to restrict them?

That is, use the state machinery to build a dam to enclose the "lowest" place. In this way, even if it is a natural law that water flows to the lower place, then because of this dam, the water cannot flow to the lowest place?

In fact, to put it bluntly.

The set of "Guan Zi" - inducement with benefits. If the direction is not what the court wants, then find a way to regulate it, so that the direction of the inducement is the direction the court wants.

Simply put, heavy industry, including railways, iron smelting, chemicals, etc., has large investments, slow results, and small returns. Capital does not like to run here, at least not now.

So what to do?

Under the premise of the existence of the feudal dynasty of Dashun, there are only three ways.

The first is that the court will become the owner of the world's largest capital.

What the fuck is the invisible hand, what their water flows to the lower place, what the hell, capital is controlled in my hands, and it will flow wherever I let it flow.

But the problem is, firstly, Dashun is a loser. Datang can still implement the equal-field system, because Datang still has a lot of "state-owned land" assets in its hands, but what does Dashun have? Relying on that little agricultural tax a year, after paying for the maintenance of troops, disaster relief, and official salaries, how much is left? Without assets, how can it be qualified to be the owner of the world's largest capital?

Second, if Dashun really has this ability, then things are simple. North America, Australia, Yili, Heilongjiang, at least tens of billions of acres of arable land.

With such capital, wouldn't the radicals of practical learning be able to play with it?

It took 20 years of large-scale immigration to ensure that the per capita land ownership reached 30 acres.

There is a domestic market.

The contradiction between people and land is alleviated.

There is food.

Small farmers also have extra money to buy cloth.

Industry and commerce will develop as the domestic market expands.

So what is there to worry about?

Isn't the key point that there is no ability?

Second, find a way to protect large industries.

Use violent organs to crush any forces that hinder industrial profits.

This is also very difficult.

Because, according to the normal route, it must be light first and heavy later.

In the case of Dashun, if you engage in light industry, you will definitely compete with the people for profit.

Compete with the people for profit.

These four words are infinitely wonderful.

The key lies in "people", what exactly is the people, and who are the people.

At the beginning, when Sang Hongyang and Xianliang Wenxue debated, they talked about the issue of competing with the people for profit.

Xianliang Wenxue said, what does the central government want the right to mint coins? It is better to give the right to mint coins to the free market and to local tyrants. Is this thing difficult? Who doesn't know how to mint coins? In this way, you leave the minting of coins to the market, isn't it good?

If the central government wants the right to mint coins, it will compete with the people for profit.

Xianliang Wenxue said, what does the central government want the salt and iron monopoly? It is better to give things like salt and iron to local tyrants.

The central government wants salt and iron, which means it competes with the people for profit.

Obviously, the "people" who compete with the people for profit here are definitely not the same as the "people" that people generally understand.

But Dashun is different.

For example, Dashun relied on Indian cotton yarn in Songsu to build a large textile enterprise.

That would definitely kill Hubei's textile industry.

And those textile workers in Hubei, that is, they rely on the local market in Hubei and the opportunity of Sichuan salt entering Chu. The old women spin some yarn and weave some cotton cloth to earn some money for porridge, buy some salt, exchange some money to pay currency taxes, and buy red hairbands for their daughters.

Then do you think this is the people? Is it competing with the people for profit?

Of course, you say that these people, with backward productivity, will be crushed by the rolling wheels of history.

But the problem is that they are human beings. They have self-awareness and know that "I will leave a great name when I die."

When they face the wheel of history, they are not consciously thinking: Oh, I don't make progress, so I deserve to be crushed to death by the wheel of history. So they closed their eyes and waited for death, waiting for the wheels to roll over, and laughed three times, "I died in the right place, happy and happy."

No.

They would recite a few poems on the spot, and then go to the nearby Dabie Mountains.

Then can these big industrial giants of your Dashun provide employment for tens of millions of people?

Definitely not.

If they could, things would be simple.

Liu Yu's reforms were nothing more than abolishing the canal and moving the trade center from Guangzhou to Songsu.

That's all.

This led to continuous uprisings and resistances in Dashun for 20 to 30 years.

It took 30 years of intermittent suppression to stabilize it.

After the Qingzhou Army finished fighting in the Western Regions, reorganized and dispersed, except for a part of them who became the foundation of the Marine Corps and fought overseas, and a part of them were in the southwest.

The rest were basically busy suppressing the uprisings and resistances along the canal, the Yangzhou salt workers, and the Wuling porters.

Can you, the bourgeoisie, suppress it? Where does your power come from?

The French Revolution was able to withstand the test, and Paris was able to crush France, and France was able to crush Europe. Whose power did it rely on?

It relied on the peasants.

Did the peasants follow you, the bourgeoisie? No, it was you, the bourgeoisie, who summoned Gracchus and Caesar with the necromancy, and they followed Gracchus and Caesar.

You threw away the skins of these ancient heroes and replaced them with Guizot and others. Do the peasants know who you are? You, the bourgeoisie, are a halberd and a spear, and the peasants follow you?

In Dashun, without the support of hundreds of millions of small farmers, how could you suppress all resistance in a peasant country?

If you have the power to suppress the resistance caused by the bankruptcy of small farmers and handicrafts of this scale, the overall decline of rural areas and the gentryization of rural areas, then why do you take off your pants and fart? Just take the first path, concentrate and command capital, and rush to the billions of acres of land in the new world.

As for the third one, it is what Lao Ma said about playing with three:

Cheating, fooling, and forcing with bayonets are also ways.

In short, let capital run in the direction of infrastructure, heavy industry, mining, irrigation, canals, etc.

If you can use superb financial fraud to play a credit bank under the skin of Saint-Simonianism and use the credit bank as the baton, that would be the best.

If you don’t have this ability, then rely on bayonets.

Liu Yu and the old emperor still laid a good foundation for Dashun. There are both vast markets and commercial hegemony outside, as well as Java in India, two excellent raw material production areas, and huge amounts of gold and silver to be mined in Fusang and the Southern Ocean.

Rely on foreign trade to develop light industry.

Relying on bayonets, forced redemption, and capital industrial bondization, the gentry's money was forced to flow into domestic infrastructure.

Once infrastructure is built, many problems will be solved.

Because infrastructure, especially infrastructure in the steam age, means the development of many industries such as cement, coal mines, iron mines, smelting, metal processing, steam engines, shipbuilding, and mechanical processing.

To be honest, Li Li's ideas are still "conservative".

In his subconscious, he felt that industry and commerce could not accommodate so many people. He felt that leaving 100 million agricultural population and 200 to 300 million people engaged in industry and commerce, how could it be possible?

Therefore, with this "conservative" subconscious, he believed that the ultimate solution was immigration and migration.

However, his idea was the idea of ​​Saint-Simonism: to find ways to create conditions for capitalists and "entice" them to invest capital in "socially beneficial" industries such as reclamation.

The ultimate goal is to wait for the completion of infrastructure, so that capital can reclaim land and attract people to work there, and finally rely on the billions of acres of "commercially valuable" land overseas, in the Northeast, and in the Western Regions to relocate people.

For example.

At this time, there is no infrastructure and transportation conditions.

The black soil along the Heilongjiang River is worthless. Capital will not even look at it.

But if the railway is built, or if steamships can go directly from Vladivostok to northern Jiangsu without looking at the weather, then the black soil along the Heilongjiang River will have great commercial value.

Now you go to the Seven Rivers of Yili to farm, and you can grow grain and cotton, but you can't transport it out or transport it to densely populated areas. Do you call it "commercial grain" or "commercial cotton"? It's not even a commodity, and you can't complete the critical process of "being realized in circulation" in surplus value. You can't circulate and earn surplus value. Which capital will go there to reclaim wasteland and relocate people?

Therefore, Li Xi felt that Liu Yu was playing a "Ponzi scheme" similar to that of later generations in Fusang.

He was fooling people and blowing bubbles there, blowing up a lot of capital, and then going to immigrate and solve the problem of relocating people from the Yellow River.

When the bubble was about to burst five years later, Liu Yu "won the bet" and actually found a big gold mine in Fusang.

So the bubble did not burst.

Then Li Xi felt that he could learn this set of things.

You, the Duke of Xingguo, can blow bubbles, so why can't I?

Twenty years later, when the big infrastructure was built, when the bubble was about to burst and the principal had to be repaid, the infrastructure had been built, the transportation conditions had improved, and the land in the Northeast, the Western Regions, the South Seas, and Fusang could be sold casually, and the principal would be repaid, right?

For example, the land along the Heilongjiang River is not worth much now. Because the goods cannot be transported out, the self-cultivating farmers may like it, but the self-cultivating farmers in the Central Plains are unwilling to go, and the bankrupt farmers who hope to make a class leap and become self-cultivating farmers cannot afford to go; and the capital that can afford to go does not look down on it and thinks it is unprofitable.

Twenty years later, the railway will be built to the banks of the Heilongjiang River. By then, the principal will have to be repaid, and there will really be no principal and it cannot be repaid. Will you accept the principal of one or two silver taels to give you ten acres of land in Heilongjiang?

Besides, will there be such a good thing at that time? Sell these ten acres of land and return your principal of one or two silver taels, right?

Now Dashun is not without resources.

The lands north of the Songliao watershed, the Ili River Valley, Australia, and North America are all state-owned lands.

But the problem now is that the infrastructure is not good, the logistics are not smooth, and the transportation cost is too high. These state-owned lands are worthless.

You say these lands are all good lands, but you must exchange two acres for one acre and exchange with the landlords. Landlords have to think about it. If you can give me land, can you give me tenants? If you can't give me tenants, can you transfer the domestic grain market to me? You can only give me land, what's the use?

You can't give me my one acre of land, and the social conditions, material basis, and population market behind it. How can the two acres of land compare with my one acre of land that involves social relations?

Besides, I spent money to immigrate tenants to Fusang, ready to be serfs for me. When they saw it, they thought, damn, there are thousands of miles of fertile land, what's wrong with people who have to be serfs? Won't they run away?

The serfdom of Luosha was so harsh that a group of serfs ran to the Don River and became Cossacks. When they arrived in Fusang, wouldn't they run away even more happily?

At the time of Confucius, the harsh government was fiercer than a tiger, but at least there was a tiger.

Are there tigers in Fusang?

At most, there are some cougars, which are just cats.

A harsh government is more ferocious than a tiger. Maybe you should think about it. Should you go after a harsh government or a tiger?

A harsh government is more ferocious than a cat. Who wouldn't go after a cat?

What? Can you issue a "Fusang Enclosure and Fugitive Slave Law" to regress to slavery? You send soldiers to catch fugitive slaves?

Besides, even if you issue a "Fusang Enclosure and Fugitive Slave Law", what can I do with a bunch of slaves? The East Coast can grow tobacco, sugar cane, and cotton, and sell them to Europe for money to earn surplus value. I get a bunch of slaves and grow grain for fun?

I have a quirk. I just love grain and like to see grain piled up?

You have to distinguish between love and use.

If I can't sell it, how many years will it take me to earn back the money for the boat tickets for the tenants who migrated? Then I will issue boat tickets and do charity for the tenants here?

Then I will tell the ship owner that I have no money, no gold or silver, but I have grain. If you don't like it, you can take two bags of grain to pay off the debt when you go back.

Is the ship owner crazy? He crossed the Pacific Ocean for tens of thousands of miles in wind and rain to bring back two bags of food? Wouldn't it be better for him to bring back some Chilean saltpeter, copper, sandalwood, fur, etc.?

So, the billions of acres of land in Fuso are not valuable.

At least, they are not valuable now.

Dashun said, I actually have state-owned assets. You see, I have a lot of land in Fusang, Northeast China, and the Western Regions. Aren’t these all capital?

However, as Lao Ma said:

[A black person is a slave under certain conditions. Without these conditions, he is not a slave. ]

[A spinning wheel is capital under certain conditions. Without these conditions, it is just a spinning wheel, not capital. ]

Capital is a social relationship.

Your land is just land now. To turn it into capital, it still lacks the key "specific conditions".

Without these "conditions", black people are just black people, not slaves, spinning wheels are just spinning wheels, not capital, and land is just land, not state-owned assets that can be converted into cash.

Therefore, the Dashun court now only has land, and there are really tens of millions of acres of land.

However, Dashun still lacks one thing, a "condition" that can make the land in Fusang, Northeast China, and the Western Regions become convertible assets.

And Li Li believes that the key to this condition lies in "infrastructure, logistics, transportation, and transportation tools."

Technology, Dashun has it. There are agricultural technologies that can produce 150 kilograms per mu and have surplus value that can be squeezed.

Dashun also has demand. The external market, internal changes, industrial and commercial development, and the demand for agricultural raw materials are constantly expanding.

There is no shortage of people. As long as the transportation cost, including the cost of transporting people, is solved, it is no problem to make 30 to 50 million yuan in Fusang and other good places.

What is lacking is how to solve the problem of "transportation cost". Make sure that the thousands of miles of sea, the Songliao watershed, and the Western Desert no longer excessively increase the transportation cost.

As long as this condition is solved, the capital that was fooled and forced before is nothing? It will not be repaid casually in the future.

Therefore, as long as the bet is placed on the railway to really become a Grand Canal without water, and on the steamship to travel back and forth to Fusang in the future, it will only take three or two months without depending on the weather to run five or six times a year.

You say that it takes so much effort to cross the Pacific Ocean now, and you still have to look at the weather, the ocean currents, the wind direction, and the storms. If we don't depend on God's will in the future, and run five or six times a year to transport people, food, silk and cotton, wouldn't it be profitable?

Let's take a gamble, and roll the dice in 20 years, and bet on the infrastructure, logistics, transportation and vehicle industries, that is... heavy industry.