New Shun 1730

"As heaven moves forward, a gentleman strives to strengthen himself. Even though the Dutch can ask for help, they cannot count on them. In the end, we must rely on the governance of the country to strengthen ourselves."

Although Tokugawa Yoshimune admired his son for daring to think, he also believed that his second son was not a cowardly and incompetent leader. But the idea of ​​war between Dashun and the Netherlands is not considered possible.

He used to have the standard Japanese aristocratic way of thinking. Whatever he planned, even the world would give way to his plan.

But reality slapped him hard. Not only did China and Japan go to war this time, but he also knew in his heart that the security reform he led had actually failed.

From determined reform to tinkering, it ultimately did not help.

But in his heart, he felt that it wasn't his reform ideas that were problematic, but that it was just "an odd fate" and bad luck.

"The ancients said: Man plans things, and God makes things happen."

"I presided over reforms for my father, but God's way is unpredictable. Originally, rice was too expensive. Although grain is valuable and cheap, it was so expensive that people could not make a living, so I presided over the cultivation of fields for my father."

"The land reclamation had just begun to produce results. As a result, the weather was favorable once in a century. There were three consecutive warm summers, and the yield per mu was the highest in a century. So rice was so cheap that no one cared about it. The warriors used rice as their salary. The price of rice was low, and they were extremely poor. They borrowed money from merchants. A lot of money."

"My father has finally stabilized the price of rice, enriched the finances, abolished the rice system, and allowed the feudal clans to attend meetings again. There is also a little more money in the treasury."

"As a result, two consecutive cold summers ushered in. In the Kansai area, there was no harvest. Millions of people were starving and the price of rice skyrocketed, with prices everywhere."

"Thanks to the sweet potato and the coinage reform, there was no big chaos. But after the natural disaster, there were man-made disasters, and the Tang people came to attack again..."

"Nowadays, people in the Tang Dynasty are oppressed. If they want to be independent in the future, they must start with internal changes. However, how difficult is it to change? It is up to people to plan things, and to achieve things, it is up to God. If God does not allow it, what can we do?"

"If God doesn't give it, what can I do? What can I do?"

Tokugawa Munetake did not agree with Tokugawa Yoshimune's self-evaluation.

A few words of Tianruo's refusal indicate that Tokugawa Yoshimune believed that he was unlucky and caught up in a natural disaster, which led to the reform to the present, which is a complete mess.

However, Tokugawa Munetake discussed it with his close aides named Xiao, and boldly said that some people thought that the idea of ​​​​the reform itself was wrong.

Tokugawa Munetake even believed that many of his father's reforms were just a slap on the head.

Some people use the idea of ​​being a lord to govern a county to govern the entire Japan, and use the experience of reforming the Wakayama lord before becoming a shogun to guide the entire Japan. This is simply impossible to succeed.

Some things that are good governance in one village will not work at all if they are promoted nationwide.

Some policies may be implemented under a vassal with hundreds of thousands of stones, and the people will applaud them, but if they are promoted nationwide, it will lead to a disaster.

For example, Tokugawa Munetake believed that the biggest failure of the reform, or the one thing that the whole torment could be called "reform" rather than "repair", was that it was not continued for even two years.

When Tokugawa Yoshimune was the feudal lord, he witnessed with his own eyes the development of the commodity economy, which led to the gradual disintegration of feudal land ownership.

People have no money - they ask merchants for loans - they mortgage their land - the money cannot be paid - the merchants annex the land - they continue to lend - the more they merge, the more they get.

So as soon as Tokugawa Yoshimune took office as a general, he immediately issued a policy: prohibiting land mortgage sales.

After the decree was issued, all land mortgages became illegal.

Before the decree was issued, the land that had been mortgaged would be redeemed in seven years at a mortgage price of 15% per year.

As a result, the decree was issued, and within two years, Japan was in chaos.

How can the already poor people who have to pledge their land afford to repay the 15% of the land price every year?

However, some people cooperated, took the newly issued laws, and went to businessmen to ask for land directly without paying them, and made a fuss, thinking that they had already paid enough interest.

After seeing this decree, the businessmen also saw the scene of common people cooperating to acquire land. They would rather the local people starve to death than lend even half a cent to the farmers.

All the vassals were poor, and the tributes were constantly being increased, and the people were even more money-poor, unable to survive, so they had to borrow money.

Businessmen did not dare to borrow or take the pledged land. As a result, people simply abandoned their land and ran to the city to seek a living. There was not much work to do in the city, and public security plummeted.

The land was thrown away, the countryside was in ruins, and the price of rice soared. Due to financial difficulties, each vassal borrowed a lot of money from merchants.

Taking advantage of the sharp rise in rice prices, each vassal just happened to be able to repay the money. Otherwise, they would not be able to pay back the money if the rice price was low. So they continued to increase tribute in order to collect more tribute rice during the peak rice price period and return it to the merchants at a discount.

The higher the tribute, the less the people can afford to farm, and there is no place to borrow money, so more people abandon their land and run away...

What was originally intended to protect the small-scale peasant economy turned out to be the opposite, with rice prices soaring and land barren.

The shogunate and the feudal lords and samurai only collected tribute, but did not help the people. Not to mention the Qingmiao Law, Japan did not even have a Changpingcang.

There was no Green Crop Law, no official lending institutions, and no official control over all daily necessities such as firewood, rice, oil, salt, sauce, vinegar, tea, etc. If Guan Zhong of the Legalist system had complete official control over the economy, he would dare to cancel private lending.

This is no longer just a slap on the head, this is purely mindless.

The results can be imagined.

Two years later, this policy, the only one that could be considered a "reform" rather than a "repair", was declared invalid.

As for how to reform, Tokugawa Munetake also discussed it privately with his trusted staff, taking the history across the sea as a lesson, and studied it for a long time, and thought that what he could learn was the one who "upheld the Zhou Li but practiced the magic of Shen Shang".

Not to enrich the people, but to enrich the shogunate.

However, since Tokugawa Yoshimune believed that his reform was a chance that God did not give him, Tokugawa Munetake could not say anything at this time, and wanted to avoid this topic.

Now he is not even the heir. If he directly puts forward his own reform ideas at this time, once there is a disagreement, his chance to be the heir will be completely gone.

However, he wanted to escape, but Tokugawa Yoshimune did not let him go, and asked directly: "My son, what are your views on future governance?"

Tokugawa Munetake thought that he had his own views, but it was not convenient to say them at this time. I have to wait until you pass the throne to me and die before I can really have my own views.

Since he didn't dare to have his own real opinion at this time, Tokugawa Munetake only said: "Human power is limited. Whether the policy can be beneficial or not depends on whether God grants it."

"My son can't think so far, so I can only talk about the financial problem. In any case, the finances of the shogunate must be reversed, otherwise it will be difficult to get the money to buy firearms and train hatamoto."

"I think that the government-run monopoly system should be implemented. For example, taro, copper ingots, etc. should all be granted to big merchants to monopolize, so as to obtain gold and silver profits."

"When the goods of the Tang people enter the commercial port, we should also try to organize merchants to raise capital, grant them the right to monopolize, and the shogunate will collect some profits. Sell the goods of the Tang people in large quantities to various feudal domains, collect tariffs and obtain profits."

"In this way, at least some gold and silver income can be obtained."

"Only with gold and silver can we buy firearms and train hatamoto."

Tokugawa Munetake avoided the topic of reform, and Tokugawa Yoshimune also heard that Tokugawa Munetake was evading, but he also knew that reform was extremely difficult and it was not something that could be said casually.

If the monopoly is implemented on a large scale, and the imperial merchants and middlemen who trade with the Tang people are supported, it does not touch the areas that really need reform.

Reform, reform, either move forward or move backward.

Moving forward means land annexation and people fleeing to cities. Japan will not have colonies, large export industries, or poorhouses. One step forward will inevitably lead to two steps backward.

Moving backward means that the land will be transformed into a well-field system, and buying and selling will not be allowed, merchants will be suppressed, and commercial activities will be cancelled. The shogunate will monopolize the market, implement the official craftsman system before the Spring and Autumn Period, and samurai will be demoted to fiefdoms. Japan will be strictly frugal and completely feudalized, and the unified market of Japan that has finally emerged will be broken up again.

Moving forward or moving backward will not work.

However, Tokugawa Yoshimune did not have such a vision at this time. He always felt that there should be a way to protect the shogunate, small farmers, and samurai, and it should be feasible, but he just didn't find it.

Tokugawa Munetake avoided talking about it and only talked about the financial aspect. Yoshimune did not continue to force him to talk about it, but warned him about the harm of compradors and merchants.

"This method can only be used temporarily, not for a long time. Just like the rice system, cancel the commutation and ask each domain to pay rice at a rate of 1% of the koku as a substitute. It can be used when the finances are insufficient, but once the situation improves, it should be canceled immediately."

He could feel the harm that the "comprador monopoly economy" brought to Japan.

This is like a cup of poisoned wine.

There is no way. If you don't drink it now, you will die of thirst.

If you drink it, fortunately this cup of poisoned wine is chronic. As long as you survive this period of time when you are about to die of thirst, you can slowly treat it in the future.

Tokugawa Munetake also knew the crisis here, and said repeatedly: "Father is right."

"This method can be used for a while, as long as the politicians are sober and know that it cannot last long. Use it for the time being, support those comprador merchants first, and when the financial situation improves in the future, you can abandon them."

Tokugawa Munetake was very confident, just like everyone who thinks that quitting smoking, drinking, and even drug addiction is really simple.

Use it now, and you can stop using it if you want in the future.

To show that he still has ideas, Tokugawa Munetake said: "In addition, we should also open up new sources. We should be self-sufficient according to local conditions and try to be self-sufficient to reduce the impact of Tang people's goods."

"For example, sugar and silk should be viewed separately."

"Silk is produced in small quantities in our country and occupies land. No matter what, we can't compete with the Tang people."

"As for sugar, our people love sugar, and our country does not produce sugarcane. But considering the climate, it may not be impossible to grow it. If we can find a way to grow it, try to grow it in various places, and squeeze sugar by ourselves, the Tang people will import less sugar."

"First, through the comprador monopoly Accumulate wealth and divide it into several parts. "

"Part of it is used for training soldiers."

"Part of it is used to open up new fields and cultivate mountains and swamps."

"Part of it is used to grow sugarcane, expand seafood, specialize in papermaking, dig sulfur, etc."

"In this way, in 20 or 30 years, at least some goods can be sold to the Tang people to reduce the outflow of gold and silver as much as possible."

"And this cannot be done without money. Therefore, even though we know that opening up trade is a cup of poison, we have to drink it for the time being."

Tokugawa Yoshimune nodded. This is a more realistic consideration.

The situation in Japan is really different from that in Dashun. When Dashun opened up, silver flew into the country at a rapid speed; while even in the closed-door situation in Japan, silver still flowed out.

It is absolutely unrealistic to want to balance imports and exports. To be more realistic, we should treat the income from comprador trade as capital accumulation and invest it in some industries instead of squandering it.

Thinking about it, he asked again: "The Tang people are strong and invincible. Do you think you can defeat the Tang people by training them?"

"Father, training is not to defeat the Tang people, but to prevent the Tang people from attacking again and seize more conditions. After training, when there is a change in the world, we will first weaken the vassal states, and then we can become strong and retaliate."

Yoshimune sighed bitterly: "The world will change? I am afraid that if the world changes, the Tang navy will go alone and go to Japan to establish themselves as kings."

Tokugawa Munetake shook his head and said: "The world that father understands is from his own country Emishi to Yangguan in China; from Korea to Annan."

"Are the world now only the Tang people and Japan, as well as the vassal states of Korea, Ryukyu, and Annan?"

"When I say the world will change, I mean when the southern barbarians and the Tang people have a conflict and the Tang people have no time to look east."