New Shun 1730

"Rational?"

Elizabeth smiled and asked, "What is rational?"

Hannibal recalled what Liu Yu said and tried to translate the sentence to its original meaning.

"Evaluate your opponent, scold those who are tongue-tied, fight those who are weak, don't provoke those who can't beat you, and give in when it's time to give in and cede land and pay compensation."

This is a statement that reveals some of the true meanings of diplomacy at this time. Elizabeth trusts Hannibal very much, so she asked, "Do you think Dashun is strong enough?"

Hannibal, who has lived in Dashun for more than ten years since he was captured, still has the impression that Russia was the Russia when St. Petersburg was first built more than ten years ago.

Even though some progress has been seen in the past few days, the situation of the Russian army has been chaotic for more than ten years, and the overall characteristics should not have changed.

Thinking about the tactical system and characteristics of Dashun after the military reform, Hannibal didn't want to admit it, but he had to tell the truth.

"Your Majesty, the Dashun army's tactical system seems to be a style chosen specifically to restrain us."

"Rapid formation changes, high mobility, excellent battalion and square formation conversions... The imaginary enemy of this tactic is an enemy with a large number of irregular cavalry."

He smiled helplessly.

"...That is, us."

"A large number of Cossacks and Torghut horse archers are the characteristics of our army. The tactical system of the Dashun Army is completely designed to restrain us."

"Their speed of changing formations and integrated lighter field artillery can enable them to maintain efficient killing and formation integrity when facing a large number of irregular cavalry on the opposite side in field battles."

"If a war breaks out between us and China, the scale of the war will be at the level of a few thousand people due to logistical pressure. In a battle of a few thousand people, their high mobility, extremely fast speed of changing formations, and light artillery coordination completely restrain us."

"Considering factors such as logistics and taxation, we are even further behind."

After all, he graduated from a regular French military academy and participated in the actual combat of the War of the Quadruple Alliance. He saw the characteristics of the Dashun Army's tactical system almost at a glance.

This tactical system is invincible in Europe with the size and population of Dashun.

The reason for placing it in Asia is that Liu Yu is sure that there will be no large-scale field battles with a scale of more than 100,000 people in Asia, including India, at least for decades.

Although in Hannibal's view, it seems that the tactical system after the Dashun Army reform is designed to restrain the opponents of a large number of irregular cavalry in Central Asia or Russia.

But in fact, this is not tailor-made for restraining Central Asia or Russia. It is just imitating some system tactics after the French Revolutionary Army Reform, and the reflection of the "prophet" who saw the various problems of the line formation in the Seven Years' War, especially the Prussians who valued the firing rate and the oblique horizontal formation, and were defeated by the irregular cavalry of the Cossacks and the Torghut tribe several times.

The entire set of army tactics revolves around three things.

Boring machine technology makes field artillery lighter.

The field battle change of the company-battalion scale can be completed within three minutes.

The front row of skirmishers cooperates with the main horizontal column behind.

This is just the direction of the future, not for the tide of irregular cavalry in Russia.

From the perspective of the tactical system, it is ahead of the times, and naturally surpasses the current Russian army.

Elizabeth cast her eyes on Bestuyev and asked sincerely: "You participated in the signing of many treaties in my father's time and dealt with monarchs of various countries. In your opinion, what does this Chinese marquis mean?"

She didn't care at all and told Bestuyev clearly that Liu Yu had made a lot of efforts in this coup, and even helped in times of trouble.

This is not a secret. Even if someone says it's not, there is no, or it's a coincidence, no one will believe it.

Besides, foreign intervention is not a big deal. There are a lot of kings in Europe who can't speak their own language. Elizabeth at least speaks Russian.

Although Bestuyev didn't like Hannibal, who studied in France, he was still convinced of the first-hand intelligence Hannibal got from Dashun.

In the battle to pacify Junggar, some previous envoys also noticed the changes in Dashun's tactical system. In fact, the Russian army had long felt the restraint of this tactic.

Otherwise, it would be impossible to make such a big concession on the issue of the boundary treaty, because it was indeed impossible to win.

But the problem is that Liu Yu said "be rational", which is really a very simple request.

Could it be that he thinks that Russia may have a completely irrational, even mentally ill, tsar who does not care about Russia's interests at all?

He has never seen Peter III, who ordered the withdrawal of troops after defeating Prussia, so he naturally thinks that Liu Yu's "rationality" is a bit nonsense.

Bestuyev thought for a long time and replied: "Your Majesty, this matter should be viewed separately."

"To maintain peace between China and Russia and to instigate Russia to expand westward are actually not the same thing."

"Instigating Russia to expand westward can maintain peace between China and Russia. But maintaining peace between China and Russia does not require instigating Russia to expand westward."

"In this matter, I think Liu Yu's focus is to instigate Russia to expand westward, not to maintain peace between China and Russia."

"But... there is no reason? Europe is too far away from Dashun, and Russia's westward advance has no impact on Dashun. Dashun is not France, and they can't get any benefits at all."

Bestuev vaguely felt that the reason why Liu Yu supported the coup was not for "non-aggression between China and Russia", but for "letting Russia move westward".

This seems to be one thing, but if you think about it carefully, it is clearly two things.

If it is to support Russia's westward advance, then it makes sense why Liu Yu is keen to overthrow the German faction in power.

But if this question is thought through, new problems will arise.

What benefits will Russia's westward advance bring to Dashun?

After jumping out of the "seemingly reasonable" trap of thinking that the westward advance is for the peace of the East, this matter has become even more confusing.

At the beginning of the Sino-French alliance, everyone thought that this was Dashun's attempt to form an anti-Russian alliance of China, France, Turkey and Sweden with France as the axis.

But now think about it, this seems a little unreasonable. Although Dashun has made a big opening on the issue of the boundary treaty, it is just some of the old lands of the Junggar tribe, and it does not even involve the fur area that the Russians value.

Sweden went to war with Russia. In theory, if Dashun wanted to help Sweden and weaken Russia, it should support the coup.

Create chaos with a coup.

But the problem is that the direction of Dashun's coup was very strange. It was not aimed at creating chaos at all.

Instead, it was afraid that there would be chaos in Russia. From detention and surveillance to the coronation ceremony, it was a one-stop service. For Russia, the whole coup not only did not cause chaos, but also smoothed out the previous chaos.

This Dashun marquis even thought of a one-stop service. Didn't he know that making the coup "a mess" and even a civil war between the new party, the old party, the German party, and the Russian orthodox faction would be considered to weaken Russia?

This coup itself shows that Dashun actually didn't care about Russia at all, and didn't even think that Russia was a threat.

Bestuyev thought hard for a long time, but still couldn't figure out what the benefit was for Dashun to have a "strong, westward, stable, and rational" Russia?

Simply to help France?

Or was this coup a request from the Palace of Versailles?

After saying this possibility, Hannibal immediately denied it.

"Your Majesty, in fact, shortly after I was captured, more than ten years ago, he had already considered this coup. At that time, there was not even a formal ambassador between France and China."

"At that time, he mentioned your Majesty's safety and used the possibility of imprisoning you in the monastery to force me to cooperate. He seemed to have been planning this coup for a long time, even... I even suspected that when Count Osterman went to the capital for negotiations, he was considering visiting Europe and coup."

"This matter has absolutely nothing to do with the Palace of Versailles. Moreover, you cannot understand China's pride. How could they choose to listen to the Palace of Versailles? It is even more impossible for Liu Yu himself to have any private contact with the Palace of Versailles."

After denying that this matter was a conspiracy of the French, things became even more bizarre.

Bestuyev pondered and could not figure it out.

Elizabeth also frowned. She believed Hannibal's words, which meant that more than ten years ago, Liu Yu had guessed that the Russian political situation might fall into chaos? Falling into chaos is conceivable, but if a coup was considered at that time, it would be a bit too scary.

Moreover, if a coup was considered at that time, and the smooth routine of this coup, wouldn't it prove Bestuyev's conjecture? Liu Yu did not regard Russia as a threat from the beginning, so his high-sounding reason of "for Sino-Russian peace" is completely untenable.

If it is for peace, Russia should be allowed to continue to be chaotic and rotten. One is strong and the other is weak. The strong has peace at any time and has the power to not want peace at any time.

Go west... Russia's westward advance, what benefits will it bring to Dashun?

Bestuyev reviewed the known intelligence about China in his mind, and considered Liu Yu's diplomatic style, and vaguely grasped some key points.

"Your Majesty, if this matter has nothing to do with the Palace of Versailles, or as Lieutenant General Hannibal said, the Chinese side had considered the issue of Russia's westward expansion more than ten years ago, this is a bit subtle."

"Let's recall. The time point of the first Sino-Russian War was the eve of the outbreak of the War of the Polish Succession and the opportunity of Peter the Great's death. Dashun took advantage of Russia's internal chaos and the issue of the succession to the Polish throne to resolve the eastern border through war."

"Then, taking advantage of the gap between the outbreak of the War of the Polish Succession and the Fourth Russo-Turkish War, the separatist Mongols of the Junggar tribe were quelled."

"Then, in the context of the most intense Fourth Russo-Turkish War, the Swedish war was about to start, and the Austrian succession issue was obviously going to be a war, forcing us Accepted the Western Front Treaty. "

"In fact, the only war we really had with China was the one more than ten years ago. The troops deployed by both sides were only at the level of a thousand people. The rest were all forced by China to agree to their treaty demands by relying on diplomatic means and taking advantage of the chaos in Europe. "

"In other words, once the war broke out in Europe, Dashun also took advantage of the situation to expand. After the war in Europe was over, Dashun stopped. "

"Can we assume that China will have a large-scale military operation in its other strategic directions? So they hope to resolve the contradictions and differences between China and Russia as soon as possible, so that we can invest in the European battlefield without worries, and they will take the opportunity to launch a large-scale war in other strategic directions? "

"Moreover, the enemy in this strategic direction may threaten and pressure China through us? For example, by providing us with financial assistance and gold coin contracts."

"After all, we are the only country around China that has the ability to pose a substantial threat to it."

"Then, combined with his move to come to St. Petersburg to plan a coup this time, we can draw the following conclusions after clearing away these mysteries."

"First, the enemy country in his next strategic direction is a European country, and it has money, and can use financial support to make China feel threatened by us."

"Second, this country is now our ally."

"Third, this country is an enemy of France, because our foreign policy is likely to turn pro-French, which will cause us to break the alliance with the country that Dashun is about to go to war with and become an enemy."

"Fourth, this country has a conflict of interest with Dashun, and is at least a neighboring country to some extent."