Game of Thrones: Digger of the Dreadfort

According to the result, let the gods judge whether Miss Margaery wins or I win..."

A smile appeared on Samwell's face:

"If you agree, then let's start now. Please choose your own positive and negative sequence first."

Margaery tilted her head and thought carefully.

The rules of coin tossing don't seem to have changed much.

It just changed from throwing it once to throwing it three times.

She thought for less than three seconds before making up her mind, "Okay."

"I choose 'either way'." Margery said a sequence at random.

"Then I choose 'anyway'."

Samwell said as he caught the coin with the nail of his thumb and flicked it upward.

The coins are raised high and spinning in the air, reflecting the sunlight that shines into the hall through the narrow windows...

This seemingly fair "coin toss" is actually not fair!

Each side chooses a sequence of three coin heads and tails, and keeps tossing coins until the sequence appears, which counts as a victory.

However, the side that chooses the sequence last has a huge advantage.

No matter what sequence the first player chooses, the second player can have a relatively better solution.

Take Margery’s choice of “pros and cons” in this round as an example.

Samwell's choice of "anyway" is better than the former in terms of probability.

Because in an infinitely long sequence, assuming that the coin is tossed all the time:

The winning conditions for Samwell's "Anyway" are either a "Head-Again" or a "Again-Again". There are two possibilities.

If Margaery's "pros and cons" wants to win, the only possibility is "pros and cons".

Because if the sequence of "anti-anyway, anti" occurs, then Samwell, who chose "anti-anyway", will directly win before Margaery.

One of the prerequisites for Margaery's victory is actually the basis for Samwell's victory.

Unless the result is directly determined in the "first three throws" at the beginning, this possibility is very small.

Otherwise, the probability of Samwell's "anyway" will take precedence over Margaery's "anyway" in an infinitely extended sequence... Among the four possibilities of victory, Samwell's chance of winning is Margaery's. 3 times, a winning rate of approximately 75%.

For a gambler, a 55% probability of winning is already a huge advantage.

If you can control the odds of winning at 75%, you can almost invest all your wealth...

Chapter 290 Mathematical Probability, Looks Like Your Dad

As the coin spun in mid-air, "Little Rose" Margaery Tyrell's pupils suddenly contracted.

"Snapped".

Samwell Tarly caught the coin, covered it with his palm, and then slowly opened it.

The side of the coin facing up is the portrait of the character, which is the positive side.

"Ah, no one hit the first shot."

Samwell scratched his head honestly and said, "Come again."

He continued tossing the coin.

The second shot is heads, the third shot is tails.

The first three shots were heads or tails, and no one could guess it.

Margaery didn't notice anything unusual for a while.

Samwell remained silent. The probability of hitting all the first three shots was too low. The next few shots were the beginning of the game.

The fourth throw is up, the fifth throw is up... the eighth throw is tail, the ninth throw is tail, and the tenth throw is up.

"Anyway" appeared first!

Samwell won.

The fat man smiled and said: "Miss Margaery, it seems that the gods are on my side, and he asked me to maintain my oath."

It's not luck, it's pure probability calculation.

From a mathematical point of view, the probability of his "no matter what" is three times that of Margery's "no," which means that he has a 75% probability of winning against Margaery.

But the other party obviously won't give up so easily!

Margery sighed quietly and pursed her lips.

She just felt that her luck was a bit bad, and she hadn't realized the difficulty of the fat man in front of her.

"Maybe the gods just took a nap, and it doesn't count this time. So, I'll punish myself with a drink, and let's do it again..."

Margery poured herself a glass of golden wine from the Arbor.

She was not that stupid to let Samwell go so easily.

"Miss Margery, no, Your Majesty the Queen, you..."

Isn’t this just playing rogue!

Although the probability of Margaery winning is much lower than that of Samwell, the more times she wins, the more times she will win.

And Samwell didn't dare to fall out with her. This was the most terrible thing.

"What do you want?"

Margery also knew that she was in the wrong, so she slightly pulled down the shoulders of her waist-length dress, revealing her fair pink arms and a white tube top.

Now, a certain key part can be seen at a glance.

"How about adding this bet?" Margaery said with a sweet smile.

what is this?

Samwell obviously will not be seduced by beauty, but he must prevent Margaery from flipping the table directly.

"It's not enough to punish yourself with one drink, at least three drinks!"

Samwell showed a fat, aggrieved face, otherwise it would appear that he had suffered a great loss.

"Oh?" Margery chuckled.

Is this fat man trying to get me drunk?

Margaery didn't realize the seriousness of the problem at the moment. She thought to herself, it was just three glasses of wine.

In "Little Rose's" opinion, she didn't win the first time because she was just unlucky.

Two more times, she will definitely have a chance to win, and then Samwell will have to honestly confess the information he knows.

Therefore, Margery drank three glasses of wine without hesitation.

The "coin toss" begins again!

This time, Margaery chose the "anyway" sequence, because Samwell just relied on "anyway" to win.

Samwell wanted to laugh in his heart. He just won, not that "anyway" is the optimal solution.

Instead, among a variety of different choices, they are mutually beneficial and inferior, forming a cycle of mutual reinforcement and restraint, just like rock-paper-scissors.

Margaery chose "No matter what", and the winning sequence could only be "No - No, no", and "No - No, no".

Samwell immediately chooses "positive and negative" to suppress, and he has two possibilities of winning.

The first possibility for Margaery to win is "either way-either way", but it is the condition for Samwell to win first.

His winning rate is still three times that of his opponent!

"Then, I'll start."

Samwell flicked the coin.

The silver deer spun slowly in the air, but finally fell on the back of his hand and was caught violently.

The results came out very late this time, until the No. 12 vote.

"Pros and cons, pros and cons, pros and cons."

The last three columns match the "forward, reverse, reverse" sequence chosen by Samwell, and he wins again.

"what?"

Margaery felt very bad, but she couldn't tell what was wrong.

This feeling is bad!

"Come again!"

Margery drank three glasses of wine in one gulp.

She pulled her long skirt straight to her waist, leaving only a tube top on her upper body. The snow-white skin on her waist was perfectly displayed in front of the fat man.

This is her bet. Anyway, there is no one else here, and the maids are not present.

As long as we can get information about the situation in Kuqiao, it's nothing to be taken advantage of by the fat man.

"What do you choose?" Samwell covered his nose, feeling a heat concentrating in his nasal cavity.

"Wait a minute."

"What's wrong?" The fat man looked confused.

The opponent won twice in succession, and Margaery realized that Samwell might be cheating.

She questioned: "This doesn't seem fair, does it?

The coin is yours, and you are the one who tossed it. How can I be sure that the game is fair? "

"Then you throw it?" Samwell suggested, handing the silver deer to the woman beside him.

Margery took the silver deer from the opponent's hand and looked at it carefully.

This silver deer is made of silver, its thickness is even and smooth, and there is nothing unusual about it.