Rebirth of the investment era

After Su Yu, Li Meng, and He Qian arrived in Shenzhen City.

Su Yu immediately asked He Qian to meet with the core management personnel of the new nanotechnology company.

The core management personnel of New Nanotechnology never expected that at this time when the money shortage crisis was spreading throughout the market and money could not be borrowed anywhere, an investment institution would actually come to their door.

So, basically without any obstacles, Su Yu and his team won the order of new nanotechnology.

With a direct investment of 4 million, it supplemented New Nano's imminent cash flow crisis. At the same time, with the approval of all shareholders of New Nano Technology, it occupied 10% of the shares of New Nano.

After taking down the new nanotechnology company...

The next day, Su Yu and his party visited Mingjiang Technology Company again.

Different from the New Nano Company's thirst for funds and the urgency of approaching huge debt repayment pressure, Zhu Jianming, the boss of Mingjiang Technology Company, was not in a hurry to sign a contract with the 'Yuhang Investment' represented by Su Yu, but was in a fierce fight with the three people. During the bargaining, they finally accepted the 4 million funds offered by 'Yuhang Investment'.

And in the end...

In this transaction, the 'Yuhang Investment' represented by Su Yu obtained 15% of the shares of Mingjiang Technology, which was a 5% reduction from the initial expected 20% shareholding.

The two deals were negotiated and 8 million was spent.

Su Yu considered that tomorrow is the day when the stock market opens and he must go back to take charge of the work. So He Qian was left to finish up in the Shenzhen market.

He and Li Meng returned to Yuhang that night.

Back at Yuhang's home, it was already 10 o'clock in the evening. After Su Yu finished washing, he turned on the computer and checked today's various market news, chat software, and various messages in emails.

I saw that the entire market has been shrouded in a 'money shortage crisis' that broke out from the banking and financial systems.

Whether it is financial media, trading forums, or financial communities.

Everyone seems to be in a financial crisis, the end of the world, and is extremely pessimistic about the market outlook.

and……

Rumors are everywhere in forums and communities.

There is news that a local commercial bank in the southwest region suffered a serious run and went bankrupt overnight; there is news that major banks have begun to restrict large-amount fund transfers and will not allow the redemption of financial management funds at this time; there is news that the central bank will cut interest rates tomorrow. Accurate, news about the release of trillions of liquidity; there is also news about a commercial bank begging big customers on the spot, and even kneeling down to big customers in order to prevent them from transferring funds... Anyway, there are too many to list.

Except for the rumors.

That is, the inter-bank overnight repurchase rate and inter-bank lending rate, which are still above the 20% mark and seem to continue to rise, continue to stimulate the nerves of the market that is close to collapse, as well as the completely broken on-site and off-site financing channels.

Su Yu felt this extreme panic and pessimistic market sentiment.

I know that the market will definitely not be better tomorrow.

I couldn't help but open the chat software and email, and took a look at everyone's messages and some intelligence information Lin Antu sent me.

I saw that whether it was in the comments or in the retail investor group of his classmates, the main hot money group, and the "Yuhang No. 1" investment group, they were all filled with extremely pessimistic discussions.

As for the intelligence information sent by Lin Antu, it contained some more sensational news.

For example, the internal net cash flow of Qianjiang Bank is less than 3 billion; for example, the overnight repurchase rate and lending rate of many city commercial banks have risen to around 30%; for example, a business in Qianzhou has sufficient funds and can lend funds. Banks, within twelve hours after the news was released, attracted more than 50 commercial banks to gather loans; for example, two commercial banks’ internal teams, in order to obtain a loan fund of 50 million yuan for emergency relief, asked the lender to A fight broke out in front of the bank...

Dozens or hundreds of news and internal information were arranged in the emails Lin Antu sent him.

Shocking and jaw-dropping.

"Is there any internal information from the central bank?" Su Yu asked when he saw that Lin Antu was still online.

Lin Antu replied: "No, no information has come out from Yanjing. It can be said that everything is calm, which is strange... This round of market money shortage crisis has become like this, and the central bank can still remain motionless and pretend to be Tsukuru didn't see anything? What are you planning to do?"

As a market researcher.

When the market financial crisis has developed to this stage, he really can't understand that the central bank can still remain indifferent.

Su Yu chuckled and said, "You have to drink the bitter fruit you brewed by yourself!"

"Since the global financial crisis in 2008, under the various macro-strategies of national economic stimulus and revitalization, the central bank has released waves of water, and market liquidity has long been excessive."

"In the past one or two years, after the central bank released water, the economic response has become increasingly sluggish."

"On the contrary, the inflation problem is becoming more and more serious, which can be seen."

"For example, where did the terms 'Garlic You are cruel', 'Jiang Youjun' and 'Uncle Scallion' come from?"

"When there is excess liquidity and inflation continues to soar, if we continue to use water to stimulate the economy, it will be like drinking poison to quench thirst. In the end, big problems will arise."

"The central bank is certainly aware of this."

"So, from the end of last year to now, the intensity of water release and liquidity release has been getting smaller and smaller."

"But until economic growth slows down and the global economy and the Federal Reserve do not turn a corner, even if the central bank knows the crux and wants to tighten liquidity, it still has great concerns."

"So, it has been delayed."

"But now, since late April, the Federal Reserve has released the signal that it will exit the QE plan and will most likely switch to the interest rate hike channel in the future."

"The central bank has lost its previous concerns."

"We also intend to gradually tighten liquidity, alleviate the current inflationary problems that plague people's livelihood, guide funds to invest in the real economy, and reactivate economic vitality."

"But there are some guys who claim to be the top economists and institutional researchers in the country."

“In the last wave of water releases by the Federal Reserve and the domestic central bank a year ago, they ignored the global inflation situation and continued to predict and predict that the domestic central bank and the Federal Reserve would continue to release water to stimulate the economy. This led to the vast majority of domestic financial institutions misjudged the macro-monetary situation. , in the first quarter, when the central bank had already released liquidity, it expanded wildly and extended lending on a large scale, resulting in excessive growth in money supply and social financing."

"Such a situation..."

"If the central bank continues to release liquidity, there will be no problem."

"But what's the result?"

“It was the Fed’s sharp turn in monetary policy in late April, and it was the central bank’s determination to curb the problem of excess liquidity, suppress inflation, adjust monetary policy, and watch indifferently to guide the adjustment of economic institutions.”

"This has led to domestic liquidity, which has become increasingly tense since late April as expectations for the central bank to release liquidity have failed again and again."

"After all, if the central bank doesn't release liquidity."

"Then according to the original target of annual fund supply, the additional social financing increase released in the first quarter will need to be paid back in the second quarter."

"In recent years, various commercial banks have sought to obtain more liquidity."

"The aggressive expansion of off-balance sheet assets has led to a plummeting number of basic deposits."

"This naturally aggravated the outbreak of this crisis and the severity of the market's money shortage due to the misjudgement of monetary policy and the lack of money."

"But, overall."

"Our domestic financial supervision is still based on strong supervision."

"The central bank still has a lot of cards to play. A money shortage crisis like this will only have a temporary impact. As long as the central bank releases a certain amount of liquidity in the future, the crisis will naturally be resolved."

Gu Bo

"Of course, the central bank has yet to move at this time."

"I guess I'm trying to shake things up and take advantage of the money shortage crisis in the market to make these commercial banks who have tasted the bitter consequences understand that they shouldn't predict policies or abide by the rules. I feel that there is no precedent for bank failure in the country, and I feel that in the end, the central government must take the blame. They just carried out off-balance sheet expansion and aggressive investment, forgetting the most basic risk issues.”

"I understand!" After listening to Su Yu's analysis, Lin Antu finally understood the logic behind it and replied, "Mr. Su's analytical ability is really amazing. I really admire him."

He didn't think as far ahead as Su Yu, so he had always been a little hazy about this money crisis.

Now, I finally understand it.

"I estimate that after this money shortage crisis, these commercial banks that have tasted the bitter consequences of this time will return to stable operations, gradually sort out their bank assets, and move towards true optimization." Su Yu After Lin Antu replied, he laughed and said, "But the era of high bank growth is probably gone forever, and the grand occasion of 2007 will never happen again."

After saying that, the two continued to chat for a few words, and then Su Yu went to bed.

The next day when he woke up.

The central bank, the 'savior' that the entire market is looking forward to, still has not cut interest rates, nor has it conducted any open market operations. However, after a night of fermentation, the money shortage crisis in the entire market has further spread. The overnight repurchase rate and inter-bank lending rate between banks have dropped. It has generally reached an astonishing 30% or more. Compared with a few days ago, it has increased 10 times. Countless shocking news and rumors are still flying in the sky.

Su Yu briefly browsed various financial news information driven by mobile phones.

Then after washing up and having breakfast, he and Li Meng came to the company.

There was still a simple morning meeting, and then he came to the company's trading room, sat in front of the computer, and waited for the arrival of 9:15.

"Mr. Su, the market sentiment today is very pessimistic!"

Li Meng sat next to Su Yu, browsed the market's financial information, as well as hot topics in major trading forums and financial forums, and said.

In private, she could call Su Yu by his first name.

But in the company, Li Meng is usually addressed as "Mr. Su".

"The market money shortage crisis has spread from within the banking system to the market. Under such circumstances, it is surprising that market sentiment can be good." Su Yu said, "But there is no need to be pessimistic. Domestic financial risks are generally still It is controllable, otherwise the central bank would not have allowed this crisis to spread to this point."

"What do you mean?" Wang Can on the side didn't quite understand. "Mr. Su, does he mean that the central bank deliberately did not rescue the market?"

"It's not intentional!" Su Yu said, "It's the commercial banks that made mistakes in their predictions and made mistakes in lending excessively in advance."

After saying that, Su Yu glanced at Wang Can and continued: "You should study the investment logic of the market more and give me a morning analysis, a midday analysis, and a closing analysis every day. At the same time... don't keep your eyes on the market. Pay more attention to off-field news, otherwise it will be difficult to make progress."

Once he entered the company and became a superior-subordinate relationship, Su Yu didn't have that much kindness to talk about.

So, it was no longer polite to speak.

Wang Can knew that Su Yu really wanted to teach him, and he also really wanted to learn, so he nodded and said nothing.

Li Meng couldn't help but smile softly when he saw that Wang Can, who was so big and tall, looked like a primary school student in front of Su Yu. Seeing that the time was approaching 9:10, he stopped talking and carefully read important market news. For stocks with major positive and negative announcements before the market, as well as some stocks that I am concerned about and plan to open a position in, I cut out multiple interfaces and made all preparations for the opening of the market.

Su Yu was in silence between the two of them...

Instead, his gaze shifted from the two markets to the retail investor group and hot money main group of his classmates.

In the classmate retail investor group, there is not much information discussed except complaints. In the main hot money group, some people who hold positions for the weekend are complaining, but there are also many people with short positions who have a positive attitude towards this kind of market bad news. I feel that the central bank will definitely rescue the market. I feel that the 2,000-point mark of the Shanghai Composite Index is still quite supportive and will not fall below easily. I am waiting for the market to open and use panic to buy bottoms.

"Brother Su, what do you think of today's market?"

When he was checking the messages in the group, and there were only 3 minutes until the collective bidding time of the two cities at 9:15, Zhao Qiang sent him a message on the chat software.

Su Yu replied with a smile: "The market investment sentiment is extremely poor, and there are major negative news. In the minds of the majority of retail investors, the Shanghai Stock Index should have reached its limit at this moment. Although the performance after the opening may not be so bad, under today's situation, if Without direct positive stimulus from the central bank, it would be difficult to reverse the trend."

"Are you also bearish?" Zhao Qiang said, "The Shanghai Stock Index is only 3 points away from the 2,000-point mark. This is the lowest area hit in April, and it is also an extremely important integer point mark. Since 2008, , it has not broken through this support in 5 years. In addition, the market has reached this point and has already dropped more than ten points in advance from the rebound high point in early June. This fully reflects the negative impact of the market. I think it is fair. Don’t be too pessimistic.”

"In the long term, we are definitely not pessimistic." Su Yu said, "But under the current situation, the market's money shortage has exploded, and institutional positions have fallen into a cannibalistic prisoner's dilemma. The market has no real financial push. It’s difficult to hold on to 2,000 points!”

"And it's not right to say that all the downside is gone."

"The market has indeed fallen by more than ten points in a row from the beginning of June to now, which fully reflects the bad news in some markets and the need for a rebound from oversold conditions."

"But no one expected that the money shortage in the banking system would spread to this extent."

"We never expected that bank overnight repurchase rates and interbank lending rates could skyrocket tenfold overnight, generally reaching over 30%."

"In other words, this is negative news that exceeds market expectations, and the market will definitely react."

"It's just that it's definitely not as exaggerated as the index falling to the limit."

"If the 2000 point is directly penetrated and then falls further, it will be even more difficult to build confidence again!" Zhao Qiang agreed with Su Yu's point of view to a certain extent and couldn't help but sigh, "Hey... I didn't expect that. , more than ten years have passed since the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index broke through the 2,000-point mark for the first time, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is still struggling here."

"If you don't break it, you can't establish it!" Su Yu said, "If you don't break through the last line in the hearts of investors on the market, you won't be able to travel lightly and rebuild confidence in the future market. Here... it's just right to be short and long! "

When Zhao Qiang heard this, he smiled and said, "That's right. Look short and do long."

During the brief discussion between the two, 9:15 arrived.

Su Yu closed the chat box and instantly turned his attention back to the collective bidding boards of the two cities.

I saw nearly 2,000 stocks in the two cities, and only a few dozen were in the red market. The rest of the stocks all opened lower. All industry sectors and concept sectors also opened low, and there was no red market. Among them, the "big financial" sector with the main board's weight was directly lower. After opening 3 points, several local commercial banks saw their initial collective bidding fall by more than 7 points.

With the screen full of green, he looked at several core concept stocks that he was paying attention to.

I saw that Shanghai Steel Union opened lower by nearly 5 points; Huaqingbao opened lower by 4 points; Wangsu Technology and Fenda Technology, which have institutional holdings, opened lower by nearly 6 points; LeTV, Oriental Fortune, and Tonghuashundu It opened about 3 points lower, similar to the decline of related concept sectors.

Saw such a brutal initial collective bidding scene.

Su Yu and Li Meng, who had expected it before, looked quite calm on their faces, while Wang Can was stunned and said in surprise: "Looking at this situation, you won't open the market directly below 2000 points, right?"

"Probably not." Su Yu replied, "There will definitely be resistance near 2000 points. This... after all, is the psychological support level for many long investors on and off the market. Furthermore, the GEM index is away from 1000 points. The mark is closer to 2,000 points than the Shanghai Stock Index. With the 1,000-point support line of the ChiNext Index in front of it, it is not easy for the Shanghai Stock Index to directly penetrate 2,000 points."

As he spoke, time quickly passed by 9:16, 9:17, and 9:18.

Then, it quickly entered the real collective bidding time period from 9:20 to 9:25.

As time passed by minute and second, the brutality of the collective bidding in the two cities became more and more fierce. Finally, at the moment when the time was fixed at 9:25, the Shanghai Stock Index finally fell by 2.81%, opening at 2015.06 point, the GEM index fell by 2.37%, opening at 1002.87 points.

As for the industry sector and concept sector, there is still no red plate.

Among them, the 'Big Finance' sector and the 'Internet Finance' sector were among the top losers. Several local commercial bank stocks were approaching their lower limit. Internet financial concept stocks such as Shanghai Steel Union, Tianyu Information, and Yinjie Holdings were also almost close to their lower limit. Extremely tragic.

But despite the opening results of the two cities, they were extremely unsatisfactory.

The index still held the most critical support point, retaining the last trace of long hope and sentiment.

"Sure enough, it still opened above the support position." Seeing the final opening result, Li Meng sighed with a smile, "Looking at the support strength of the Shanghai Stock Index at 2,000 points and the ChiNext Index at 1,000 points, it is still quite strong. Now the two major indexes, They all held the key points, and after the market opened...there was a lot of money, so they should be grabbing for a rebound, right?"

As she spoke, she looked at Su Yu.

I would like to know what he thinks and whether he can buy at the dip here.

"There should be a short-term rebound." Su Yu said, "But with the current financial situation and the market's pessimistic risk aversion, if we want to fully absorb the panic selling here and the passive reduction of positions by many major institutions, we hope that It’s still very slim, so... first check the market acceptance situation, and don’t rush to build a position.”

Li Meng nodded slightly when he heard Su Yu's words.

Then, after a short wait, 9:30 arrived quickly, and the two cities officially began bidding transactions.