Rebirth of the investment era

Su Yu pondered for a while and replied: "The first to take advantage of the preferred stock pilot program must be state-owned enterprises and central enterprises. Therefore, the direction of this concept is basically consistent with the direction of the reform of state-owned enterprises."

"As for the recovery of the real estate economy..."

“Although macroeconomic policies in all aspects have been liberalized in the direction of real estate, in terms of specific market reactions, inventory digestion, demand boosting, and national housing prices returning to the growth channel will all take time to react, that is, There are expectations, but in the short term, the fundamental improvement and performance of related companies will definitely not be able to keep up. Coupled with the particularity of the real estate industry, related real estate companies usually lag behind the market for half a year to a year in performance confirmation. .”

"So, in the direction of real estate, expectations are strong and there is demand for rebound, but the space may not necessarily be high."

"You mean... we don't want to go in this direction?" Li Meng asked.

"No, do it!" Su Yu continued to reply, "Since the country has returned to the development path with 'urbanization construction' as the core in terms of macroeconomic regulation and control, and liberalized the real estate industry, then the market's response to this field will be 'Low expectations' will gradually turn into 'high expectations', and due to the previous low expectations of the market, the valuation of the entire market has been greatly compressed. The PE valuation of the entire 'real estate economic industry chain' is basically 10 times , or even less than 8 times, which means that the spring of valuation has been compressed to the limit. Once expectations change, the flexibility of the entire industry chain will be huge. "

"It's just that we need to streamline our thinking when making investments in this direction."

"Simplify your thinking?" Li Meng didn't quite understand.

Su Yu smiled and continued: "The core of stock speculation is the difference in expectations, but the core support of the stock price is the company's fundamental improvement and solid performance growth."

"There is a strong difference in expectations, but there is no ability to deliver on performance."

"Then, the stock will be reduced to mere conceptual speculation. After the surging main capital speculation, the stock price will fall back to the original point because the expected difference is filled."

"Correspondingly, when a stock's performance is stable but the market's future expectations are poor, the stock's valuation will be repeatedly compressed, often resulting in performance growth but the stock price not rising, or even falling."

"If we want to obtain excess returns in the market, we must start from both the expected difference and performance growth."

“Only when these two complement each other can we emerge from the trend of big bull stocks.”

"Looking at the 'real estate economic industry chain' we are discussing, this field accounts for a very important part in the macroeconomic development route of 'urbanization'. As expectations change and policies change from suppression to relaxation, or even encouragement, As the entire industry is expected to change, how will the industry chain behave? In the entire industry chain, which link will be the first to explode in demand?"

When Li Meng heard Su Yu say this, the originally hazy thoughts in his mind suddenly became clear, and he said, "What do you mean, we should carry out layout and hype in the order of the expected performance of the entire industry chain?"

"Yes!" Su Yu said with a smile, "At the same time, we use this main line to connect the concepts of 'state-owned enterprise reform' and 'preferred stock pilot'."

"As for the restructuring backdoor that you mentioned before when the IPO review was suspended, as well as the main conceptual lines such as 'mobile Internet' and 'Apple industry chain' that performed well last year and even at the beginning of this year, there is currently not much room for differences in future expectations. , it’s okay to pay appropriate attention, but I don’t think it is the main breakthrough direction for our next operations.”

"Do you still insist that the subsequent market reversal will form a 28-20 split?" Li Meng asked.

Su Yu nodded and said: "From the perspective of the difference in market expectations, this is inevitable. Last year, the small and medium-sized board and the GEM rose well. Various investment institutions in the market and the vast number of retail investors are concerned about the 'mobile Internet' and 'Apple industry chain' The future expectations of these two core main lines have been raised to the highest point. Although the current market has dropped a lot compared with the highs in November and December last year, overall, the popularity of these two core main lines The valuation of stocks is still about 3 to 5 times the average market valuation."

"Market speculation and too consistent expectations often leave little room for success."

"Consistency is bullish, consistency is bullish, there is no essential difference."

"According to what I said before, the two major small and medium-sized board and core main areas of GEM, 'mobile Internet' and 'Apple industry chain', are currently full of future expectations and are waiting for the performance to be realized. If the performance does not meet expectations, the stock price will It has fallen back to the original point of last year, and many votes have been cut in half. Next, they will continue to make up for the decline. If the performance generally exceeds expectations, these two core main lines will have expected differences again, ushering in investment opportunities."

"If you intervene before this, the uncertainty will be huge."

"Because, when expectations are already high, it is already very difficult to raise market expectations further and create new space."

"Looking at the direction of the motherboard, many areas have been suppressed in all aspects before."

"If the future expectations are gradually changed from extremely pessimistic to no longer pessimistic, or even normal, or optimistic expectations, then the increase in valuation due to the change in expectations will bring about extremely high flexibility in stock prices and even huge profits in investment. Chance."

"Understood!" Li Meng said, "This is actually the essence of fear and greed among market investors. The higher the price rises, the more optimistic it becomes, and the higher the price falls, the more pessimistic it becomes."

Su Yu responded with a smile: "Yes, the stock market is like a pendulum. Under the induction of market sentiment, whether it rises or falls, it will be excessive. And this effect is also true when it comes to the specific performance of industries, individual stocks, etc., optimistic Sometimes, you are too optimistic, and sometimes you are too pessimistic.”

"The pendulum effect." Li Meng smiled and said, "This metaphor is really good. Then... let's conduct guided operations in the direction of the 'real estate economy industrial chain', but... according to the industrial chain you mentioned From the perspective of demand and Lilan’s explosive conductivity, which link is the strongest in the current real estate economic industry chain?”

"It depends on where the difference in expectations is the largest, where the imagination of demand is the largest, where the policy tilt is the strongest, and where the story is the best." Su Yu said with a smile, "At the current stage, in the entire pan-real estate economy, it is obvious that infrastructure-related stocks are The strongest link has the best expectations, and it also has strong policy support."

"Infrastructure construction!" Li Meng was stunned when he heard that Su Yu's most promising direction was infrastructure construction. Then he realized, "You want to say 'New Silk Road'!"

"Yes!" Su Yu nodded and said, "The main line that can resonate with macro policies is a good main line with a huge market. Only when it is hyped, there will be no policy risks. Moreover, in the 'big country infrastructure', Driven by various powerful macro-policies such as 'a great power attaches importance to weapons', 'further accelerating urbanization', 'rural revitalization', and 'road access to every village', the demand in this field is essentially in an explosive stage, and it is also Part of the 'real estate economy'."

"certainly……"

Su Yu paused and continued: "Infrastructure and real estate are integrated as a whole, and they are all part of the macroeconomic strategic development of 'urbanization construction'. Now, in this field, there are policy supports and huge demands are coming one after another. As of now, there is a story about the 'New Silk Road' to be told, and the valuation has been compressed to an extremely low position by the market. In addition, the market does not have much future expectations in this regard. Once the hype starts, the space is quite broad. "

"But the market has speculated in this direction before." Li Meng said, "But at that time, market investors did not admit it and did not follow the trend and continue to attack. In the end, this strong policy attribute and the main line concept from top to bottom, that is, It’s over.”

"That was a market opportunity before, which was not mature." Su Yu said, "At that time, the market was in a unilateral downward channel that had just begun, and funds from all walks of life gathered in the 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone' sectors of the small and medium-sized board and GEM. The two main lines of the mobile phone industry chain have not receded yet, so there is naturally no spare capacity for the main line of the 'New Silk Road'. There is also the valuation spring of the market in this regard at that time, which was not compressed hard enough, and there is room for flexibility. However, given the overall low expectations, the valuation at that time was not enough to attract institutional investors to participate on a large scale."

"But it's different now..."

"Market valuations have been compressed to the limit. Macroeconomic policies have loosened restrictions on the real estate industry, clear guidelines for accelerating urbanization, rural revitalization, the clear implementation of the policy of connecting every village with roads, and the construction of high-speed rail, expressways, and various infrastructures. , the rapid advancement and scale of major power projects, and the further clarification and tone of the 'New Silk Road' policy."

"Valuation advantages, demand expansion, policy support, the market has completed its final decline, the bottom has reversed, and various opportunities have arrived. Naturally, the final results will be completely different."

"Okay!" Li Meng said, "Then let's stir up this nerve in the market."

"Yeah!" Su Yu nodded, "This direction can be used as a core point of breakthrough, but the main line breakthrough must also be coordinated by the branch lines. The only way is to spread the market to multiple sectors and draw out a clear macro main line. , Only then can we attract the participation of funds from all parties and complete the establishment of the main line of the market.”

Li Meng thought for a moment and said: "Revolving around the core point of infrastructure demand expansion, the upstream and downstream industrial chains should be able to serve as feeders. And according to what you said, industrial demand and Lilan transmission paths are often gradually transmitted from the upstream. Looking downstream, the fields of steel, cement and other building materials also have considerable differences in market expectations."

"Yes!" Su Yu said, "Under the influence of 'acceleration of urbanization construction', 'acceleration of infrastructure construction', 'recovery of the real estate industry' and other conditions, these two major fields have opportunities for reversal. At the same time, they are traditional sunset industries. , when emerging industries dominated the market, they have been knocked to the bottom, and their valuations cannot be lowered. The difference in market expectations is indeed quite large, and it can be used as a feeder for speculation."

The two of them followed the current market trends and market information.

After discussing the market outlook and investment strategies for several hours, we finally fully established our subsequent investment ideas and fell asleep tiredly.

The next day, the two made a unanimous decision.

The two main funds, 'Yuhang No. 1' Fund and 'Yuhang No. 2' Fund, have begun to make final position adjustments, further focusing their positions on infrastructure, real estate, steel, etc. with 'urbanization construction' as the core. Cement, building decoration and other major fields.

Of course, in this process of further concentrating the focus of positions.

Regarding several core stock positions in the field of "Internet finance", they have not moved at all and have maintained their original status.

After 4 consecutive trading days of fine-tuning positions...

By April 22, when the index slowly approached the 2070 point again, the two main funds finally completed all positions adjustment tasks.

At 9:48 a.m., in the internal trading room of Yuhang Investment.

Su Yu looked at the market that had once again fallen into endless sideways fluctuations. He looked at the various scattered hot spots on the market that were chaotic and completely unable to form a synergy of funds. He also looked at the 75% position water level in the background of the fund account management and the positions that had been completed. The 32 core underlying stocks know that this moment is the best time to complete the concept switch and create the main line of the market.

Therefore, he couldn't help but turn his head quickly, and immediately issued a centralized fund to Li Meng and all the traders in the trading room, and tried his best to boost the infrastructure sector. Huaguo Construction, Huaguo MCC, Huaguo Communications Construction, Huaguo Communications Construction, and Huaguo Communications had completed the construction of positions. State Railway Construction and China Railway Group's five large-cap stock trading orders that combined the concepts of "state-owned enterprise reform", "new Silk Road" and "preferred stock issuance" aroused market sentiment.

At the same time, he had more than 70 million in his own stock account.

He also went all-in on a stock called Beixin Road and Bridge, which was in the same infrastructure sector.

As his instructions are issued, as his own trading actions.

In just ten seconds, five stocks of Huaguo Construction, Huaguo MCC, Huaguo Communications Construction, Huaguo Railway Construction, and Huaguo China Railway, which had shrunk to the extreme, suddenly changed, and tens of millions of funds were used to buy them. Under the influence of the market, they rose straight up one after another, jumping onto the real-time gainer lists of the two cities.

As for the "Beixin Luqiao" that Su Yu used his own stock account to attack with all his strength, because the market was not large, the selling volume and circulation volume were limited.

The tens of millions of funds directly thrown out by Su Yu drew a vertical straight line upward, reaching the daily limit, instantly attracting the collective attention of market investors.

"Damn it, the big guys in the infrastructure have made a collective move. What... happened?"

Noticing the changes in the entire infrastructure sector, some investors exclaimed.

"Beixin Road and Bridge have skyrocketed, and Huaguo Construction, Huaguo MCC, Huaguo Communications Construction, Huaguo Railway Construction, and Huaguo China Railway have also gone riot. Is this any good?"

"Are the main funds going crazy, trying to pull blue chips at this time?"

"Are you cheating? You must be cheating. The trend of blue chips is that the lows are getting lower every time. How can there be any market trend?"

"The main force is to save itself, don't follow!"

"Who is stupid? The blunt knife of blue chips is much more vicious than the concept stocks of small and medium-sized boards and GEM."

Amidst the hesitation, confusion, hesitation and disbelief of many investors...

At 9:51, the five stocks of "Huaguo Construction, Huaguo MCC, Huaguo Communications Construction, Huaguo Railway Construction, and Huaguo China Railway" had a complete change. After absorbing surging buying orders of over 100 million, they competed with the entire market. The vast majority of investors were shocked and jumped on the 5% increase.

At the same time, due to the direct drive of these five stocks.

Within a few minutes, the growth rate of the construction and decoration industry sector jumped directly to the top of the list of industry sectors in the two cities.

Seeing that the main funds continued to attack, buying orders continued to surge. At 9:55, the construction and decoration sector, which had attracted the attention of all investors, began to gradually receive follow-up orders. Many active short-term funds were in the straight line of Beixin Road and Bridge. The daily limit, Huaguo Construction, Huaguo MCC, Huaguo Communications Construction, Huaguo Railway Construction, Huaguo China Railway and other stocks have continued to rise as a demonstration, and they have entered the market to open positions to try and make mistakes, and join the long army.

At 10:02, after Su Yu carefully observed the follow-up situation of various funds in the 'Architectural Decoration' sector on the market, he couldn't help but issue instructions again, asking the traders to continue to push up 'Huaguo Construction, Huaguo Construction'. The buying volume of several benchmark core stocks such as China Metallurgical Corporation, China Communications Construction Company, China Railway Construction Corporation, and China Railway Group Corporation has pulsed the opening of core stocks in the fields of steel, cement, and real estate, and attracted more market funds. This area converges.

At the same time, taking advantage of the attention of market investors, they quickly focused on this field.

The attack path of funds fully demonstrates the core logic of the macro-main line of "infrastructure construction of a great country" brought about by the "recovery of the real estate economy and the acceleration of urbanization construction".

wap.