Rebirth of the investment era

As for other main line concept sections...

The two major oversold and unpopular sectors, 'Coal' and 'Nonferrous Metals', which led the gains, performed very strongly this morning. At the close of the market at noon, their gains exceeded 5%, becoming the main force supporting the market; 'Military Industry' and 'Pharmaceuticals' ', 'Consumption', 'Petrochemicals' and other main areas basically followed the market fluctuations. Occasionally, major funds participated in undertaking, but the overall trend was not strong, which can be said to be generally good.

The three popular themes of ‘infrastructure’, ‘state-owned enterprise reform’ and ‘internet finance’ once led the market yesterday.

Today, it has fallen into an adjustment trend again. In the morning's market performance, it showed a trend that was obviously weaker than the market. The investor group who took on these major lines yesterday once again showed a disappointed look.

Of course, the market index has the highest weighting attribute. In the past few days, it also led the rise in the main line area of ​​'big finance'.

Today's performance was also relatively sluggish. Regardless of the securities, insurance or banking sectors, they all significantly underperformed the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index. Among the three, the securities sector, which was relatively resilient, even fell sharply near midday. The index fell, from a slight decline of 2% to 3%, to a decline of 56%.

Faced with such a midday closing situation, the majority of investors in the market are relatively disappointed.

After all, the external market has such a good trend, and at the same time, stimulated by the good news of "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect", the index only rose slightly, and the hot spots in the entire market rotated very fast, and there was no sustained profit-making effect for hot spots that lasted for more than two days. Participation, this trend... can be said to be seriously lower than the expectations of the majority of market investors.

Of course, for some investors who are lurking in the "non-ferrous" and "coal" fields in advance.

After enjoying the market dividends in the morning, they were quite excited and happy.

But no one knows how long this kind of excitement and happiness will last. After all, according to the previous market performance, no matter how hot the performance of the hot sectors that led the rise that day was, in the end it was just a one-day market trend.

"Hey, this rebound market still doesn't feel like it has much sustainability!"

At 12:35 noon, Yuhang Minghui Capital, inside the main fund trading room, had finished eating and returned to the trading room. After completing a brief review, He Hong said helplessly: "'Colorful' , and 'coal', the two major hot spots in today's market, may have performed well in the morning, but their sustainability is still questionable, and once market expectations are formed, who knows... the market will plunge in the afternoon."

"It cannot be said that there is no sustainability at all." After He Hong's death, the company's general manager Xu Zhongji responded, "Whether it was the main lines of 'infrastructure', 'state-owned enterprise reform', and 'Internet finance' that were shown yesterday, or the 'military industry' that was shown the day before , the main line of 'big finance', or today's main lines of 'coal', 'non-ferrous metals' and 'petrochemicals', in fact, in essence, they all revolve around an 'oversold rebound' market, but the differences between each main line and each sector The market moves too fast, making people feel dizzy and unable to grasp the key points.”

"It is true that the recent market hot spots have been centered around the 'oversold rebound'." He Hong said, "But just like Mr. Xu said, the market prices of each main line and each sector rotate too fast, which is dizzying. , can’t grasp the key point at all, and this… is actually the biggest problem.”

“Because the market moves too fast, it’s impossible to catch, predict, and predict.”

"It is impossible to predict, difficult to catch, and there is no sustainability in catching it, which will greatly dampen the market's hype mood."

"The current market that revolves around the 'oversold rebound' can be said to be a 'one-day tour' market. If it continues like this, it is estimated that it will only be a 'half-day tour' market."

"Because once the market expectations of a 'one-day trip' are formed in the minds of the majority of investors in the market."

"Then the main funds participating in the market speculation will definitely take advantage of this expectation to carry out a new round of front-running. After half a day of rising prices, they will most likely start to sell off and reap the rewards."

"Hey, in fact, the core hype hot spot of 'oversold rebound' is the worst hype hot spot in the market."

"Because the market hot spots and stocks that meet the 'oversold rebound' are poor in terms of fundamentals, news, sentiment, and capital. The logic of continuous speculation is lacking, and naturally the expectations are not high. Just rely on this alone." If there is a line, it will not be able to drive the market upward at all.”

"To be honest, the main funds in the market choose this direction to trade."

"In my opinion, it's an act of desperation."

"It also proves that apart from this specious hot spot in the market, other major market lines are more difficult to speculate on."

"Of course, this also shows that the current market adjustment is not over at all. The emotional and financial aspects have not recovered at all, and they cannot support the sustained market speculation of the main line."

"You are right!" Xu Zhongji responded, "Fortunately, yesterday we did not increase our positions on a large scale related to the two main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform', otherwise we would be very passive today."

"It's strange to say..."

Xu Zhongji paused and continued: "In this round of adjustment, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has fallen all the way from around 2,500 points. To this point range, it has dropped by almost 10%. It has even made an obviously effective and sustained rebound. There is no market trend at all, which is in stark contrast to the trend at the beginning of the month and the previous month. Even if the market is suppressed by the negative news of the IPO restart, logically, it should not be so weak."

He Hong thought for a while and said: "It is not just the negative pressure caused by the IPO restart. The market can be so weak. I think the main reason is that the market tone was too high in the early stage. Everyone's expectations were raised too high, and the supervision I changed my attitude too quickly, which led to the collapse of my confidence, and I ended up where I am now.”

"but……"

He Hong thought about it carefully and then said: "On the surface, the market is quite pessimistic, but in fact, both the macroeconomic aspect of policies and the financial aspect have actually improved significantly. The market situation from April to early May has improved significantly." According to the market trend, it is obvious that the stimulation of market capital volume is much faster and more intense than before, and even if the current trend is very bad and the market continues to fall, the volume energy has remained above the 100 billion mark."

"It's just the emotional side, it's hard to deal with!"

"In the financial trading market, confidence has always been more valuable than gold."

"At this stage, if we can truly solve the problem of a serious lack of investment confidence in the market, then all problems will be solved."

"The so-called market confidence basically fluctuates with the market's continued money-making effect." Xu Zhongji said, "As long as there is a money-making effect, market investment confidence will naturally and slowly recover. If you want a sustained market money-making effect, In my opinion... we still have to cooperate with the news, policies, and fundamentals of a certain direction of the market to achieve the expected effect of a wave of mainline market trends!"

"Yes!" He Hong responded, "In fact, the biggest difficulty in the current market is here. The main funds that have been active in the market recently have tried to do this with the cooperation of various market news and various policy incentives. Many directions, but none of them have been successful.”

"The market at this time..."

"To create another grand main line of market conditions like 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' in April and May, and then gather the market's continuous profit-making effect, thereby reversing the market's investment sentiment and investment confidence, it is really incomparable." It’s difficult, I can’t find the direction at all.”

"Moreover, even if there are excellent fundamentals, the news will also support the main line areas."

"After the first wave of major funds involved in speculation, it was not unanimously recognized by the majority of investors in the market. It was unable to speculate on the relay market and open up the space for mid-market markets. Naturally, it was unable to achieve sustained profit-making effects."

Xu Zhongji nodded slightly and said: "We have found the crux of the market problem. The key is...how to solve this crux and make a reasonable trading strategy in advance, so as to take advantage of the market."

"It's difficult!" He Hong smiled bitterly and said, "I have studied several directions, but they all feel wrong."

"What directions have you studied?" Xu Zhongji asked.

He Hong responded: "Finance, the 'electronic consumption' field that was hyped last year, and the 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' fields that are still in the adjustment stage."

Xu Zhongji frowned slightly and said: "These lines have been verified by the market recently. At present, there are indeed no obvious opportunities."

"Well!" He Hong nodded, "If we can't find the direction, we can only wait."

"When?" Xu Zhongji asked.

He Hong responded: "Let's wait until the market's 'half-day tour' market can no longer sustain and all market main lines enter the underestimation level. Currently, there is no main market line that can lead the market to break through, so we can only wait for the market to move." It reaches an extreme point where the valuation rebound and the sentiment rebound tighten again.”

"This is a stupid way." Xu Zhongji said, "I'm thinking, if I were Mr. Su who invested in Yuhang, what would I do now?"

He Hong thought for a while and said: "Judging from the deeds on the dragon and tiger lists of the two cities, the positions of the main fund managed by Mr. Su should have been reduced a lot, but judging from his eagerness to establish a third fund Look, he seems to be obviously looking forward to the market."

"That's why people can't understand it!" Xu Zhongji said.

"Mr. Xu, my suggestion... is to wait a little longer." He Hong pondered for a while before saying, "The current asset management scale of the 'Yuhang Department' is already quite large, and what they use is still With trading seats in the business department of an ordinary brokerage firm, tens of billions of funds flow in and out. In a market with a daily turnover of only 100 billion, it is difficult to hide one’s tracks. Our asset management scale is at least an order of magnitude smaller than theirs. Since we are currently taking If you don’t know the direction, you can wait for the opponent’s fox tail to show up before following suit, or it’s not too late to make a reference transaction.”

"Okay!" Xu Zhongji responded.

He also feels that the current market rebound trend is very weak and has poor sustainability, and there is a high probability that the market adjustment will not end.

"The plan to increase positions, given the market performance like this, naturally needs to be shelved." After a pause, Xu Zhongji continued, "The key is... should we continue to reduce positions?"

He Hong thought for a while and said: "Since we predict that the market adjustment will not end, my suggestion is to continue to reduce, at least reduce the fund position to the true defensive range of 30% to 40%, leaving close to 70% The amount of cash is truly safe, and it can also prepare us for any subsequent immediate opening of positions.”

"Okay!" Xu Zhongji glanced at the time that had reached 12:57 and responded again.

Immediately afterwards, he turned his attention back to the trading boards of the two cities.

As the two finally decided to reduce their positions according to the original plan, watch the market coldly, and not participate in any rebound in the market at this moment, the last three minutes passed in a blink of an eye, and the market ushered in continuous bidding transactions again.

As soon as the market opened, the two major industry sector indexes of 'non-ferrous metals' and 'coal', which had been favored by active main funds in the market in the morning, experienced rapid plunges. Related core component stocks within the sectors also experienced sudden declines. A relatively concentrated amount of heavy selling.

At the same time, due to the plunge in the two major market hot spots of ‘non-ferrous metals’ and ‘coal’.

The market index, which was originally trending quite well, began to fail to hold up. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index dropped from an increase of nearly 5% to near the opening point.

"Damn it, it must be poisonous! Are you starting to dive now?"

Seeing that the market, under the relatively hot mood at noon, not only failed to continue its upward trend, but immediately plunged back down after the opening. Su Yu's main group of Yuhang hot money participated in the 'coal' and 'non-ferrous metal' hot spots in the morning. They couldn't help but complain about the hot money that was being hyped.

"Hey, it's really weak. I originally thought that the rebound of 'coal' and 'non-ferrous metal' would be able to survive today, but I didn't expect... the harvest started in half a day."

“I have to say that the current market situation is really difficult!”

"As for the market situation of 'half-day tour', tell me how to do it? Speaking of making a check for 'Pingmei Energy' today, there is no problem from any angle, but I never expected... It would be so hard in the morning, and in the afternoon It was smashed just after the market opened. The funds lurking inside this check are simply sick, right?"

"It's too difficult. I really shouldn't have taken it this morning."

"It's a money-losing market. No matter what you do these days, the only result is losing money."

"Hey, it seems like it's really time to take a rest. Damn it, this crazy market, the speed of rotation is really dizzying, I can't even understand it."

"What the hell? 'Venture Capital' is here?"

"It feels like all the funds on the market are just speculation, right?"

"No matter how these funds are speculated, there are two words, it will be over if you don't follow. At this time... a short position is better than anything else."

"It's true, short positions have outperformed 98% of investors in the market in the past two weeks."

When the news in the group was refreshing rapidly and many hot money bosses in the group were complaining...

However, in just a few minutes, the market hot spots have changed again. While the indexes of the two popular sectors of 'non-ferrous metals' and 'coal' have gradually fallen, the concept sector of 'venture capital' and its related industry sectors have also changed. , began to rise rapidly again, and instantly reached the top of the growth list of the two cities!