Rebirth of the investment era

"Open low, open low again!"

Facing the turbulent market call auction, at 9:15, in the Yuhang, Anzhao Fund's internal Selected Mixed No. 1 Product Fund Trading Room, Qin Qiuyue, who was closely watching the changes in the market prices of the two markets, couldn't help but frowned for a moment: "Only About 9% of the stocks have achieved a rise. This is... too tragic, right? The news released so many positive signals last night, but it still can't even resist a peripheral trend."

"Mr. Qin, look at this situation..." Zhou Hui, assistant to the fund manager and leader of the trading team, responded, "If the call auction continues like this, the major market indexes will probably open at least one point lower."

"If we really go like this, there's nothing we can do about it." Qin Qiuyue sighed softly.

"It seems that the index is really going to test the 2,000-point position." Zhou Hui said, "I didn't expect that within a month or so, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index would return to the big box between 2000 and 2200 points."

Qin Qiuyue nodded slightly and said with emotion: "Yes, when everyone thought that the Shanghai Stock Index had broken through the big box of 2000 to 2200 points and achieved an effective breakthrough, they did not expect that it fell back again. It has been almost three years. ?The large box range of the Shanghai Composite Index from 2000 points to 2200 points is really like a powerful magnet, which forcefully attracts the index to this range. No matter how it breaks through, it ultimately fails."

"However, the index has been trading in this large box range for nearly three years, which is enough to fully demonstrate that this range is the extreme bottom of the market." Zhou Hui took over and said, "I think it will take until the index takes this wave. Once the trend is over and the panic selling is gone, we should be able to add some chips again at the lower edge of the shock range from 2000 to 2100.”

"Aren't you going to continue to be bearish?" Qin Qiuyue said slightly surprised.

Zhou Hui responded: "The index has reached the bottom of the shock range. Even at the current position, it is only less than 10% lower than the bottom of 2000 points. Although the market performance is still very bad, there is a high probability that the 2000 points below the index can still be Hold on, it’s really not advisable to be too bearish here..."

"I feel that I am still not very optimistic!" Qin Qiuyue said, "The 2200 point position fell too suddenly. It can be said that there was basically no resistance, and it went straight through. The subsequent index is just 2000 points away from the bottom of the box. There is only more than 100 points of depth space left.”

"It is difficult to say whether this deep space can fully digest the hold-up that has accumulated since around 2,500 points and clear out the panic selling chips in the market."

"and……"

Qin Qiuyue paused and continued: "The market is at this position and there is no obvious shrinkage!"

"Yeah!" Zhou Hui responded, "Quantity is indeed a problem. It seems that we have to wait until after this wave of heavy volume, the market will shrink again, and there may be an obvious bottom signal."

If the index continues to plummet in volume, it will bottom out at this position.

Not only Qin Qiuyue didn't believe it, but she didn't believe it either.

What's more, according to her observation, the current market does not have a "big main trend" that can guide positive changes in market investment sentiment and confidence. In other words, there are no sustained hot spots for making money. In this situation... the market simply cannot attract investors. Without incremental funds entering the market, in the face of continuous selling on the market, the existing funds on the market will not be able to absorb it, and naturally it will be difficult for the index to bottom out.

Of course, although she agrees with Qin Qiuyue's point of view, there is no signal that the current index has bottomed out.

But at the same time, she also believes that there is a high probability that the index can maintain the characteristics of the bottom of 2,000 points, and can digest this extreme panic selling sentiment in the subsequent depth of more than 100 points.

"Let's continue to wait patiently!" Qin Qiuyue thought for a while and said, "After we encountered setbacks in the 'military industry' line of layout, even if we have completely reduced the fund position to a safer position, the net value of the fund is still In this wave of continuous market decline, the retracement is still relatively serious, which makes us lose a certain amount of trading initiative and part of our ability to resist risks. Therefore, we can only wait for clearer opportunities and make investments in the right direction. We can no longer He rashly went to catch the 'throwing knives' from the market."

See the market performance after the holiday.

Qin Qiuyue still feels that her decision to decisively reduce her position before the holiday and desperately stop the loss of the "military industry" front-line holding chips is very correct and lucky. Otherwise, she would not be able to look at the current market trend calmly at this moment.

During the brief discussion between the two, the market trading time had reached 9:17.

After a short two-minute initial collective bidding, the market patterns of the two cities have shown a relatively clear path.

In terms of the main lines of the market, various industry sectors, and concept sectors, yesterday's afternoon trading once supported the market rebound. The main lines of 'infrastructure', 'state-owned enterprise reform', 'military industry', and 'Internet finance' performed relatively strongly, and Its related industry sectors and concept sectors still maintained a relatively strong state in the initial collective bidding stage today, ranking among the top gainers among various industry sectors and concept sectors in the market.

Among them, real estate, building materials, public transportation, and high-speed railway sectors in the "big infrastructure" fields, stimulated by the positive news released by yesterday's news, have become the initial collective bidding stage of today's market, and only a few sectors can still Sector areas that remain in red territory.

In addition to the relatively strong main lines of ‘infrastructure’, ‘state-owned enterprise reform’, ‘military industry’ and ‘Internet finance’.

The main lines of 'consumption', 'medicine', 'finance' and 'gold' in the defensive field are not that weak, and panic selling on the market is limited.

As for other main areas such as 'venture capital', 'restructuring backdoor', and 'ST sector', which were relatively weak yesterday, as well as main areas of 'growth stocks' such as 'mobile Internet', 'smartphone industry chain', or basic The main areas of 'cyclical stocks' such as coal, non-ferrous metals, petroleum, chemicals, etc. are relatively poor and there is no expectation of speculation, or the main areas of traditional agriculture such as agriculture and animal husbandry are facing increasingly sluggish market investment sentiment and panic selling sentiment. Below, the market performance is quite ugly, and the decline is not small.

As for the performance of the main core stocks and popular stocks in the two cities.

Core component stocks in the main areas of 'infrastructure', 'state-owned enterprise reform', 'military industry', and 'Internet finance', especially mid- and large-cap stocks with relatively abundant market liquidity, such as China Railway Construction, China Communications Construction, and China China Metallurgical Corporation, Huaguo Construction, Gemdale Group, Kewan Real Estate, Poly Real Estate, Huaguo Heavy Industry, China Airlines Mechanical and Electrical, China Airlines Optoelectronics, Airfa Power, Huaguo Great Wall, Airfa Technology, Oriental Fortune, Hengsheng Electronics, Flush... Many stocks performed relatively well, either opening slightly higher, or opening flat or slightly lower. The signs of panic selling on the market were not obvious compared to the entire market.

Of course, in this field, there are also stocks that have been fully abandoned by funds and have extremely weak trends.

Stocks such as Beixin Road and Bridge, Shibei High-tech, Shanghai Construction Engineering, Beijiang Communications Construction, China Fortune Land Development, Kumho Group, etc., which were overly hyped in the early stage, have opened sharply lower, and there are signs of panic selling on the market. Still very obvious.

A number of stocks in the weak main line sector, except for those with obvious positive support, other stocks have obviously opened sharply lower. On the market, there are very serious signs of panic selling. Among them, yesterday, there was almost a crash in late trading. The Shell Resources concept stock 'Cologne' opened for trading today. It was immediately hit by panic selling of 100,000 lots at the beginning of the call auction, and was pushed to the lower limit. As a result, the vast number of retail investors who rushed in to speculate yesterday were all suffocated.

As for the performance of the first batch of five new stocks listed today after the IPO market reopened, which has attracted much attention.

Although the vast majority of investors in the entire market had previously expressed their intention to boycott IPOs, give up purchasing new shares, and not accept new shares, on the day of listing, the five stocks still hit the daily limit and went out of the way. A huge buy order of 100,000 lots sealed the market's limitless price limit.

Overall, in an extremely weak market sentiment atmosphere.

Judging from the two-minute initial collective bidding performance, the preference of the main funds on and off the market is still in the direction of the main board, and stimulated by the good news released by the Xinwen Network yesterday, the two items of 'big infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' The main line of the market, which is independent of the overall market trend, is significantly stronger than the market, and it is becoming more and more obvious.

"Crisis, crisis, danger and opportunity are all on the thin line!"

At 9:18, in the main fund trading room of Yuhang and Minghui Capital, Xu Zhongji looked at the changes in the market prices of the two markets and said with emotion: "It is infinite danger, but there seems to be a glimmer of opportunity."

"The opportunities that Mr. Xu is referring to are the two lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform'?" asked fund manager He Hong, standing next to Xu Zhongji.

Xu Zhongji nodded slightly and responded: "What do you think?"

He Hong thought for a while and said: "I think we can look at it after the official opening. Although the two lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' have new good news, the overall market is falling below 2200." After hitting the mark, the sentiment performance and market confidence performance were really poor."

"Under such circumstances, it is quite difficult for the two main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' to lead the market and create sustained money-making opportunities!"

"You know, these two main lines are both relatively large market main lines."

"Once the market goes out of a sustained trend, the incremental funds consumed and the funds to undertake are not small amounts. In the current market, funds on the market are showing a comprehensive outflow. I am afraid it will be difficult to support the market acceptance of these two main lines. , in other words...it is easy for these two lines to have a short-term rebound with the help of good news, but it is too difficult to reverse. If we take the 'flying knife' here, the value of participation is not great."

"Even if Mr. Xu insists on being optimistic about these two lines..."

He Hong paused and continued: "Then we have to wait for the opportunity on the right to come out, and the risk of our intervention will be significantly lower."

Xu Zhongji nodded slightly and responded: "There is no problem with the logic and reason of what you said, but judging from the current market performance, if the market is destined to reverse in the future, then the two "infrastructure" and "state-owned enterprise reform" This line is undoubtedly the area with the strongest expectations, the most positive news, and the most sustained hype and investment value."

"besides……"

Xu Zhongji thought for a while and continued: "The index did fall below the 2200-point support line, but at the same time, it is not far away from the 2000-point position below. From the market point of view, with the panic spreading, the trend is indeed terrifying, and there is no trace of it. For signs of bottoming out, you can ignore the influence of emotions and conduct a rational analysis of the current market position. Whether it is the overall valuation or expectations, it has been compressed to the extreme.”

"Furthermore, the negative impact of the IPO restart in the market today is that the first batch of new stocks are listed."

“I think it’s basically landed.”

"Subsequent changes in expectations should theoretically lead to a rebound and can be expected."

In fact, in his opinion, the current market trend, if analyzed carefully, is quite divided in terms of long and short positions. While everyone knows that the Shanghai Stock Index is not far from the bottom of 2000 points, and should not be so bearish, on the other hand, the Shanghai Stock Index has completely fallen below 2200 points. At the same time, the external trend became worse again, which affected the market investment sentiment and continued to slide into the abyss, which in turn drove everyone to desperately sell on the market to kill the fall, and irrationally tried to be bearish.

"Then what Mr. Xu means... we can take over some of the 'flying knives' in the main areas of infrastructure and state-owned enterprise reform here?" He Hong asked after listening to Xu Zhongji's analysis.

Xu Zhongji nodded slightly and replied: "I think it is appropriate to pick up a little bit. Our fund positions are not heavy at the moment. Let's pick up some chips here. Even if the market continues to fall in the future, the two lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' , and still can’t come out, then it’s too late for us to decisively stop losses and change investment direction.”

"Similarly, if the market really goes beyond expectations next."

"The two lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' are really reversed here. Then we will have a serious lack of positions in these two directions, and it will be very uncomfortable in the future."

"Overall, we can bear the risk of attacking, so there is no need to hesitate too much."

"Okay!" Seeing that Xu Zhongji had already said this, He Hong retained his analysis and followed Xu Zhongji's suggestion. He quickly turned around and ordered the traders in the trading room to change their trading strategies and let everyone take on some at a low level. In the main areas of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform', there are obvious changes, and there are core component stocks that are obviously taken over by main funds.

And as his trading order was issued...

At this time, the market trading time has quickly passed 9:20.

It can be seen that although the two cities still continue the previous performance pattern of each main line, each industry sector, and each concept sector, on the whole, after a large number of false pending orders were canceled between 9:19 and 9:20, the market panicked and sold But it has worsened again, resulting in the two cities no longer having industry sectors and concept sectors that remain in the red.

Immediately afterwards, at 9:21, the two cities continued to fall. Mainline concept sectors such as 'venture capital', 'restructuring backdoor', and 'ST sector', which had been relatively completely abandoned by the main market funds, all opened lower by more than 2%. , and in the direction of the small and medium-sized board and GEM, the index declines of the first-line industry sectors and concept sectors of 'growth stocks', such as 'Apple concept', 'Internet software', and 'Internet applications', have also exceeded 5%.

At 9:22, the ‘ST sector’ once again exceeded the limit of 7 stocks, and there was a wave of limit drops.

At 9:23, the panic selling sentiment is still continuing. Active funds on and off the market are further moving towards defensive sectors such as 'consumption', 'medicine', and 'finance', as well as the obvious positive stimulus from last night's news. Gathering in the fields of 'big infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform'.

At 9:24, under the huge selling pressure of the entire market, the overall pattern of the two cities continued to decline. Even the two cities' "Architectural Decoration" and "High-speed Rail" led the gains in the two cities, ranking first in the concept and industry sectors of the two cities. The decline in the major sector index also expanded to less than 5%.

Finally, when 9:25 arrived, the collective bidding in the two cities ended.

I saw that the Shanghai Index was set at 79 points, a drop of 26%. Among them, the Shenzhen Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 59% and 71% respectively. In terms of the overall opening performance of the index, the two cities are still strong in Shanghai and weak in Shenzhen. According to the pattern, the mid- and large-cap stocks with relatively good liquidity did not fall very much, while the small-cap concept stocks with relatively lack of liquidity, especially have neither expected performance support nor good concept stories to tell, and are not in line with the market's popular main lines. The so-called "three noes" small-cap stocks on the sidelines suffered particularly fierce declines.

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