Rebirth Starts From 2006

Seeing that they all understood, Chen Yang stopped talking about this, and instead said, "After talking about the outside, let's look at the inside.

On the surface, the subprime mortgage crisis this time is due to the fact that after five or six years of skyrocketing housing prices in the United States, prices generally stopped rising and then fell, and the housing price bubble burst. The bond market thunderstorm, which caused,

However, the deeper reason is that in order to pursue high profits, investment banks excessively use financial derivative products, that is, subprime bonds in the housing market, resulting in ineffective risk supervision and granting loans to many people who do not meet the conditions for lending. this financial crisis,

From this financial crisis, the first to be impacted and at the same time the most impacted are investment banks, which can prove this point.

Today, among the top five investment banks on Wall Street, Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch were acquired, and only Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley remained.

However, both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have also suffered heavy blows in this financial crisis, but they are lighter than the other three.

Although the Federal Reserve pushed Lehman Brothers out this time as a scapegoat to calm the anger of the people, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley can also use this opportunity to step on the wreckage of Lehman and wash their feet ashore.

But, whatever their end, it proves a conclusion,"

Looking at the three people who were paying attention, Chen Yang stretched out a finger and said seriously, "The pure investment banking model can officially declare failure!"

Pure investment banking model, declared a failure? ? ?

Qin Yu and Huang Shan were both stunned,

This is a big proposition. It is enough to do a graduation thesis for a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard Business School, but is it thrown out by Boss Chen so lightly? !

The two fell into deep thought immediately.

Think about it carefully, this time the financial crisis, although many savings banks have also been affected, or were merged, or went bankrupt,

But for big banks, the impact is not serious,

Even savings banks and investment banks are in the opposite situation,

**** acquired Bear Stearns, and Bank of America acquired Merrill Lynch. In terms of savings, Bank of America is currently the largest bank in the United States, followed by **** and ranked second.

So, in a sense, this is not so much a financial crisis as an investment banking crisis? !

At this time, Qin Yu suddenly thought of another point, she looked at Chen Yang suddenly,

"It's no wonder that when we acquired a bankrupt financial company in the United States, you insisted on implementing a business balance strategy instead of taking the more profitable pure investment bank route. This is the reason?!"

Leaving aside the central bank and policy banks, the main types of financial institutions include ordinary commercial banks, investment banks, securities companies, trust companies, asset management companies, financial leasing companies, foreign exchange brokers, insurance, trading and settlement, etc.

According to market types, it is further divided into capital market and money market.

The capital market includes medium and long-term bank credit, securities (bonds and stocks), insurance, financial leasing,

The money market includes interbank lending, repurchase agreements, commercial paper, bank acceptances, short-term government bonds, large denomination negotiable certificates of deposit, etc.

In other words, the business scope of the five financial companies acquired by Rainbow Group in the United States covers almost all types of capital and currency markets.

Don't think that big and complete is good,

Like many industries, financial companies also need to pay attention to professionalism,

Whether your main business is an ordinary commercial bank, an investment bank, or other types of financial business, it is very important for mid-to-high-end customers!

They will choose whether to use your company to provide them with services based on your business expertise.

Only ordinary people who know nothing about finance think that a company with all kinds of businesses is the best.

Otherwise, why didn't the top five investment banks in the United States operate other businesses besides investment banks before this year? !

Of course, the reasons for this are a bit complicated, but their own reluctance is still the main reason.

Because the capital market is the most important part of the financial market and the core and cornerstone of modern finance,

And the investment bank is the heart of the capital market. Its role in adjusting the economic structure and promoting economic development is irreplaceable in modern economic activities!

To be more precise, an investment bank is not actually a bank, but a non-bank financial institution that operates asset business, and is the main financial intermediary in the capital market.

For example, the New Century Bond Company of the United States, which has already gone bankrupt, is actually an investment bank.

Therefore, the importance of investment banks to the entire financial market is naturally conceivable.

In a sense, investment banks are the brightest jewels in the crown of the entire financial market.

The five major investment banks in the United States are equivalent to occupying the core and leading position in the global financial market, earning the part of the financial sector with the highest technical content and the highest proportion of profits.

That being the case, of course they don't need to develop ordinary commercial banking business!

But now, everything has changed,

From Qin Yu's point of view, Boss Chen had foreseen this, so he insisted on the principle of balance to develop the business in the whole financial field.

Fortunately, I still laughed at him for being greedy and greedy, but it turned out that I was short-sighted!

Looking at Qin Yu who was full of admiration on the screen, Chen Yang blinked blankly, and quickly realized,

"Ah, yes, that's what I thought!"

On and off the screen, the four laughed lightly together,

After a short silence, Zou Rong suddenly asked, "If it is said that the pure investment bank model is not good, does that mean that those investment banks will transform in the future?"

Chen Yang turned his head to look at her, and said with a smile, "This has to be viewed in two parts. First of all, I said that the pure investment bank model has failed, but it does not mean that the pure investment bank cannot survive.

In fact, investment banking is always the most important part of the financial module,

However, what is associated with the higher profit level of investment banking business is that this type of business is also more risky.

When the scale is below a certain level, the risks are controllable, and you can live quite well by only doing investment banking business.

However, when an investment bank develops to the status of Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs, what they need to consider should not only be profits,

In other words, profits should be placed in the back row, and the ability to resist risks should be put first in the business process! "

Huang Shan nodded thoughtfully, "This is what you often say, whether a company can survive for a long time does not depend on its profitability, but on its ability to resist risks?!"

"right,"

Chen Yang nodded and said, "For large-scale enterprises, there are many opportunities to make money, at least it is easier than ordinary companies.

However, when a risk comes, whether it can withstand it is the key to testing the resilience of a company.

Companies with insufficient risk resistance and resilience will face bankruptcy sooner or later.

Therefore, being able to resist temptation and keep loneliness is the long-term way to run a business! "

This high-pitched song caused the three beauties to roll their eyes at the same time.

Still able to resist the temptation and keep the loneliness,

Go and see for yourself how many companies Honggu Capital has invested in and how many industries it is involved in!

Well, even if you don't mention those joint stock companies, what about the ones you founded yourself,

First real estate, then communications, and then the Internet, new energy, big data, cultural media...

Is this how you can stand alone? !

Boss Chen had a thick skin, so he pretended he didn't see it, and said to Qin Yu without changing his expression,

"I infer that next, two major events will happen in the US financial sector. First, the US government will relax the control of banking business and allow investment banking companies to directly operate commercial banking business!"

In order to prevent the emergence of super trusts, especially in the field of financial capital that can shake the fundamentals of the economy, the United States has the strictest management and restriction policies in the world.

Fortunately, commercial banks can develop investment banking business through business cooperation, comprehensive management, financial holdings, etc., but the business scale will be limited.

But for investment banks, they cannot directly develop commercial banking business.

So for a long period of time, **** can acquire Bear Stearns, Rainbow Group can also acquire five financial companies, but no investment bank can acquire commercial banks.

If an investment bank wants to operate across businesses, it can only do so in the form of indirect investment, not even in the form of a group subsidiary.

For example, investing part of the money and setting up another bank that has nothing to do with the main business,

Of course, as long as the investment bank wants to do business in this area, there will always be a way to operate it under the management framework, but there is no direct connection.

But now, investment banks are facing the most serious survival crisis in history. Even from the perspective of stabilizing the economy, the United States must relax restrictions in this area and allow investment banks to operate commercial banking business.

At least it can be operated as a group subsidiary,

Otherwise, even if this crisis is over, these investment banks may not be able to escape the next time!

In fact, starting from the "Interim Regulations on Intermediary Business of Commercial Banks" issued in 2001, my country began to relax the control on commercial banks' investment banking business.

Prior to this, commercial banks could only carry out currency business, and absolutely could not set foot in the capital market. On the other hand, the management was even stricter!

pull back,

Chen Yang took a sip of water, and before Huang Shan and Qin Yu could speak, he continued, "Secondly, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will definitely change their business models and increase the business types of commercial banks,"

Speaking of this, Chen Yang paused, and smiled meaningfully, "The most important thing is that they will definitely seek to become shareholders of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York!"

After Boss Chen finished speaking, Huang Shan had a chance to speak out. She looked at Chen Yang with hesitation and said,

"I see what you mean, but is the Fed really going to make a change?"

That's right, the key point of this matter is not Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, but the Federal Reserve. They hold the power to formulate financial policies in the United States, and their every move attracts worldwide attention.

If there is anyone who can completely save this financial crisis, it is absolutely none other than the Federal Reserve.

Because the root of the financial crisis lies in the United States, and they are responsible for the disaster. If they don't solve it, who can solve it? !

On the screen, Qin Yu frowned and thought, but kept silent.

After Huang Shan finished speaking, Chen Yang smiled. When she was about to explain, she suddenly took out her mobile phone and made a call.

Chen Yang and Huang Shan looked at each other and fell silent.

After a while, Qin Yu hung up the phone and said to the camera, "I have asked Xueli to inquire about the news!"

Chen Yang raised his forehead slightly, looked at her and smiled, "Mr. Yu, how about a bet?"

Qin Yu's face collapsed, "Don't fight!"

Whether I'm sure or not, I'm crazy to bet with you!

Besides, after the boss's analysis, she also believed that the Federal Reserve would change its financial control policy, so she would not bet with him.

Huang Shan also covered her eyes dumbfounded, and quickly let go, looked at him and said, "If the Federal Reserve can relax its control, of course the financial crisis can be ended soon.

However, I remember that Volcker is a staunch risk control faction. With his influence in the Fed, is it really so easy for the Fed to loosen control? "

The current chairman of the Federal Reserve, Bernanke, took office in 2006. Before Bernanke, Alan Greenspan, a legend in the American financial circle, had held this position for 19 years.

Before Greenspan, Paul Volcker served as the chairman of the Federal Reserve for eight years.

Many Fed leaders, including Greenspan, have great respect for this legendary financier. If Volcker firmly opposes something, even the Federal Reserve will seriously consider it.

In fact, just a year and a half later, Omar at the time followed the advice of the financial veteran and issued the "Volcker Law" bill aimed at major reforms in the US banking industry.

The core of this bill is to prohibit commercial banks from engaging in proprietary investment business, and to prohibit banks from owning, investing in or launching hedge funds and private equity funds.

At the same time, the scale of commercial banks is also limited, and it is stipulated that any financial institution shall not occupy more than 10% of the savings deposit market. This regulation has also been extended to other fields such as non-deposit funds to limit the growth and merger of financial institutions. ,

It can be seen from this, what is the attitude of this financial veteran~www.readwn.com~ Now that the business management restrictions on investment banks are going to be relaxed, it is hard to say whether this veteran will jump out and object.

But Boss Chen, who knew the result, didn't worry at all, so he smiled leisurely,

"It's still the same thing. Times have changed. Mr. Volker has always attached great importance to the risk control of financial institutions. However, the most important thing right now is to solve the financial crisis caused by subprime mortgages.

And the best way to resolve this crisis is to let the U.S. investment banking market get out of the predicament and regain its vitality from the root cause.

Besides, the development of commercial banking business by investment banks is also a means of risk control! "

Chen Yang spread his hands, shrugged and said, "As long as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley become member shareholders of the Federal Reserve, if they have a similar crisis in the future, the Federal Reserve can justifiably launch a bailout for them.

At the same time, the investment banking institutions that were previously free from the Fed will also be under the control of the Fed as a matter of course.

Why not do something that benefits both sides through cooperation! "