Survivorship Bias

    Only five chances left.

    Listening to the voices of his companions being tortured, An Wu Jiao couldn't keep his absolute calm, he even prayed for a second that he could change to another state, at least he could take advantage of his indifference and malice , so that he can come up with a way to deal with them and rescue them earlier.

    But he knew it was impossible, this game was not his game alone.

    This is very similar to the Prisoner's Dilemma ①, everyone in it can't get the information of others, can't come up with a so-called plan and plan, and decision-making mistakes are the norm.

    He comforted himself, at least Yang Erci came out.

    The opportunity for three people to choose the same must be used for the first time, otherwise the further down the road, the worse the mentality, the shorter the time, and it will be difficult to choose the same result in the same round.

    If you want to get the final victory, there must be a chance.

     "Okay, selfless companions once again exchanged their sacrifices and dedications for time, which is exactly what you humans believe in, time is life."

    An Wu Jiu's eyes turned cold when she heard the rabbit's voice.

    Humans…

    Isn't it one of their kind behind the scenes?

    "Let me see how much time you got this round." Rabbit paused, "Oh! 44 seconds! That's a good number."

    "For the third time, please tell me which choice you will make."

    An Wujiu stared coldly at the box in front of him, the exposed wire seemed to be connected to the metal wall, and perhaps more things he didn't know about.

    The last round was three [knockouts] because they all thought of the same level.

      Go down the same path.

    But they are not pure-minded people, they will definitely doubt this choice, especially Yang Erci. It has been repeated twice, and this time she definitely doesn't want the opportunity to unlock to be wasted on herself again.

    She is the heaviest when it comes to shaking hearts. She must have expected that everyone would be inclined to choose No in this round. Compared with others, Yang Erci was most likely to choose Yes.

    But for An Wu Jiao, this time, no matter what.

    He can't think too much, otherwise everyone's ideas will be too consistent, and the result will be bad. This time, his thinking level has to take the initiative to drop one level.

    At least in this round, An Wujiu must let the option of [No Knockout] prevail, even if he can't go out in the end, it doesn't matter, he can't harm the people outside who sacrificed for them in vain people.

    Without much hesitation, An Wujiu pressed the white button and chose No.

    He bet the possibility of success on the other two, especially Yang Erci.

    Preferably NNY…

    This time An Wugui thought was actually very short, he pressed the white button with 30 seconds left in the countdown.

    He believed in Yang Erci and Shen Ti.

    At the end of the countdown, the rabbit's voice appeared, as if deliberately provoking him, and specifically said to him: "It's so decisive, you are the first one to make a decision."

    An Wujiu didn't want to pay attention to him, he just thought it was funny, "Is it so happy to see other people suffering?"

    The rabbit's laughter stopped, and then asked him in a natural and extremely innocent tone: "Don't you feel happy? What a precious sacrifice and nourishment this is."

    An Wujiu thought it was absurd, the next second, he heard the rabbit say: "In the last game you watched tigers fight across the mountain, and three people died under your hands, you were not the same at that time. Satisfied with victory?"

    "Why do you know?" An Wujiu is puzzled, isn't it the NPC of this game?

    "Of course I know, don't forget, I even know you have a sister." Rabbit's laughter was ironic, "Everyone you kill directly or indirectly at the altar, you I'm afraid I forgot."

    "An Wujiao, I'll remember it for you."

    An Wujiu felt cold all over, as if he had been dismantled by this rabbit, like a corpse killed by him.

    It is happily dissecting its trophy, savoring this obvious victory.

    The rabbit laughed, "An Wujiu, you have to cheer up, I like your heinous appearance the most, even my own friends are not spared, why are you so weak now, in order to be irrelevant people can't move."

    It gave An Wu Jiao a lot of confusion and self-doubt, and then did not continue, "Ah, I seem to say too much, for each of you."

    "Let's announce the results. Will it make you happier or sadder?"

    New words appeared on the LED screen on the box in front of her eyes, and the cheerful celebratory sound surrounded the metal tomb where the three of them were almost buried alive.

    [NNN]

    "Are you happy! You are one step closer to the final decision of not being knocked out!"

    [The door lock of player Yang Erci has been unlocked! ]

    Not possible.

    An Wujiu couldn't believe the facts in front of him.

    "What did they choose?"

    "How can I tell you this?" Rabbit laughed sharply, like a soft knife, gouging out his heart, "You really deserve to be a spiritual leader, it seems that all Everyone follows your decision."

    Why is no one shaken?

    An Wujiu carefully recalled his own calculations, is it really because he is too conceited, in fact, he can't guess what other people think at all.

    He can't save anyone at all, can't be this **** savior.

    "Don't be discouraged, at least you are not three Yes, this is much to be congratulated."

    Although this choice is not random and cannot be calculated strictly according to the probability of occurrence, it is a bit strange that the same result appears three times in a row, and it appears when he makes a strategy change .

    This is a game of the altar, and it will not tamper with the player's result to cheat, and this method is quite clumsy, and the player who has been tampered with the result is very clear.

    But the players are really allowed to form a prisoner's dilemma. When the number of players increases to three, it is difficult to achieve cooperation through repeated games. The two can also try again and again to seek trust from the cooperation of the tentative.

    When there are three people, they don't even know what choice the other two made. Everyone thinks that they may be the different choice, but no one can be sure that they must be.

    No solution at all.

    Luck? Or is there really a problem with the game  ?

    It was almost the first time that An Wujiu had such doubts.

    Once suspicion arises, it is difficult to suppress.

    An Wujiu thought that even if some players knew that they had been tampered with, and they chose Y, but it was NNN, he couldn't tell, and the other two would always be kept in the dark.

    But what's the point of breaking the rules so despicably?

    "Your companions are really strong. Three rounds have passed, and none of them have pressed the stop button, and are still desperately persevering for you."

    The rabbit smiled and said, "Now... do you really want to go out and press that button for them?"

    Can no longer be affected by it.

    What it wants most now is for everyone to lose their senses and fall into madness.

    You lose.

    An Wu Jiu sneered and looked up at the nonexistent pair of prying eyes.

    This scene almost made the rabbit hiding behind to wonder if his personality had mutated again.

    But in fact, An Wu Jiao didn't, he just stood at the extreme bright spot and took a step towards the middle.

    "If you want to see me break down, I'm afraid you won't get what you want."

    An Wujiu’s expression was calm, he accepted his weirdness calmly, “I have a dark side and a bright side, just like all human beings. The calm and composure of me, you can't easily break me."

    "I'll make sure of your trick."

    The rabbit was silent for a while, and in this rare silence, the cry became more and more harsh.

    Its crazy voice suddenly became indifferent, completely cold, as if declaring a given fact, "You may not believe, one day, you will be smashed to pieces."

    "It's your destiny, understand?"

    Although she has amnesia, An Wugui doesn't believe in the so-called fate at all.

    Maybe this is true, but before the shattered result comes, he can't accept his fate.

    The ruthlessness of the rabbit didn't last long, and soon returned to that crazy tone, "Okay, we're starting the fourth round of selection."

    "This time, the poor little ones gritted their teeth desperately and won a full 30 seconds for you."

    "Think carefully about whether to knock it out or not. In thirty seconds, I want to hear your answer."

    "Come on, little beauty."

    The thirty second countdown begins soon.

    An Wujiu didn't think, didn't think at all, but put his hand into his pocket.

    The rabbit watching all this could not help squinting.

    What is this guy doing?

    He took out a piece of golden light, which was very random. The key piece said hoax, which was one of the rewards he got when he unlocked the water tank game.

      Between the palm and the back of the hand, the dust settled.

    Select Yes for the side with words and No for the side without words.

    He made up his mind and removed his palm.

    Hoax is written on the side facing up.

    [Scam]

    Although it wasn't the outcome he wanted, he took a gamble.

    Be quick, An Wujiu presses the button, thinking in his heart.

    Maybe he is a gambler.

    Knowing that the opportunity is precious, the many doubts that keep popping up in his mind still force him to make this bet.

    An Wujiu is using this willful randomness to bet on the information he needs.

    He wanted to verify his conjecture.

    "I didn't expect you to be so sloppy." The rabbit saw that he pressed the button and chose Yes, both mocking and disbelieving, "Did you give up?"

    An Wujiu raised his head and asked him for the first time, "Guess what?"

    The rabbit sneered.

    "I have a question that I'm curious about, don't worry, it's not about what other people choose, I don't want to foul." After speaking, An Wujiu threw a second question, "I am the first Someone who makes a choice?"

    This time, the rabbit did not respond immediately, not even a smile.

    It was uncharacteristically quiet, terribly quiet.

    "I take it as your acquiescence." An Wu Jiu put away the shard with hoax in his hand, lowered his head, and looked at his fingertips, there were many calluses on it.

    "You know what? When people are extremely excited, they will talk more and more information will follow." An Wujiu raised his eyebrows calmly, " I don't know if you're human, but you made a mistake."

    "I've been thinking about how to solve the predicament of the three of us, and I ended up in a deadlock and almost couldn't get out. But you set up this game, in fact, you want us to find out, just It's better to find out later, when it's irreversible, and it's completely overwhelmed by the regret of hindsight, and the game effect will be the best."

    "Otherwise you won't be playing tricks all the time, trying to leak a little bit to make the game more fun."

    The rabbit smiled.

    "You're crazy, do you know what you're talking about?"

    The result came out, the celebratory sound lingered all over the body, An Wujiu stared at the LED screen in front of him, without the slightest surprise on his face.

    [YYY]

    [The door lock of player Yang Erci has been unlocked! ]

    An Wujiu ignored it, walked up to the box, and pulled the exposed wire, as he thought, a little pull, the other end would fall out.

    It doesn't seem to be thorough enough.

    An Wujiu opens the panel and finds something in the collection threshold.

    The next second, a gun appeared in his hand, without hesitation, he aimed sideways, and smashed the selection box on the metal wall with one shot.

    "You're crazy!" Rabbit screamed.

    In the smoke, An Wujiu stared at the completely destroyed display screen and calmed down.

    "Stop acting."

    "This box is a gimmick."

    "It's so rudimentary on purpose that it will break as soon as you pull it off, but you are still arrogant and sure that no one dares to take it lightly, let alone destroy the box."

    An Wujiu put the muzzle of the gun on the ground, "Have you used a lot of sarcasm and stimulation to impose psychological pressure on the players? Haven't you tried it? Everyone in the past has been defeated by you. Brainwashed, right? They either collapsed or fell into a vortex of thought, unable to get out of this unsolved problem."

    An Wujiu's mouth was straight and indifferent.

    "Everyone ignores that, from the first round, what you said was [tell me your choice], every round is like this, in this round, you even boldly said [I want to hear your choices]."

    He directly exposed the truth.

    "The appearance of this box is basically used to confuse the answerer. In fact, the answer must be oral, it must be said, am I right?"

    The rabbit listened quietly, and even smiled, "So you just randomly selected an answer and asked me if you were the first, just to know what this box is used for of?"

    "Yes, I don't believe that the same decision will be made four times in a row, impossible, we are not fools."

    "If it's not cheating, the problem is in the props. You are too arrogant and think no one can see through this scam, so the third time you directly state the order of answering questions and tell them clearly I, I was the first, and called me the spiritual leader, and everyone followed my answer."

    An Wujiu's eyes were clear and sharp, "The following here is the truth you blurted out."

    "The first person to press the button in the box and make a choice will directly assimilate the choices of the three people. No matter how you think or make a decision, the final answer is the same."

    In a way, the rabbit is excited.

    This An Wugui, under its pervasive verbal violence and psychological oppression, can earn clues from its cruel words, and even gamble to get the information he needs.

    The ultimate calm is also a kind of madness.

    What a horrible guy.

    "Wonderful, ordinary people can't make it here." Rabbit smiled with emotion, even applauded, and easily said the fate of others.

    "Either they were crushed by the cries outside, or they were tortured madly by this choice of information containment."

    "You, and the man with green eyes next door, are the only two players who can detect clues halfway through the game."

    "Should I say that you are a natural couple, or should you say that you are the same type of extremely stress-resistant monster."

    When she heard Shen Ti's name, An Wu Jiu's Adam's apple rolled.

    This is not what he expected, Shen Ti is more unconstrained and carefree than himself.

    Fortunately, he found it too, and he knew he would find it too.

    "But so what? You're just getting rid of the blindfold."

    "What's left now, isn't it the real game?"

    "An Wujiu." The rabbit smiled strangely, "Is the information you bet on enough?"

    --------------------

    The author has something to say:

    ①The Prisoner's Dilemma is a special psychological game. I wanted to write about it, but it's too late. I'll just copy the introduction, but it's not actually a real Prisoner's Dilemma, because there are three people, The situation is completely different. It is almost difficult for three people to cooperate. They still know each other. If they don't know each other, there is basically no solution.

    The following is reproduced: "The story of the prisoner's dilemma is that two suspects are caught by the police after committing a crime, and they are locked in separate rooms for interrogation.

    The police knew the two were guilty but lacked sufficient evidence. The police told everyone: if both of them deny, each will be sentenced to one year in prison; if both confess, each will be sentenced to eight years; if one of the two confesses and the other denies, the one who confesses will be released, and the one who denies will be sentenced to ten years.

    Therefore, each prisoner faces two choices: confession or denial.

    However, no matter what the accomplice chooses, the best choice for each prisoner is to confess: if the accomplice denies, and if he confesses, let him go, and if he denies, he will be sentenced to one year, it is better to confess than not to confess; , If he confesses, he will be sentenced to eight years. Compared with ten years of denial, confession is better than denial. "