The Pentium Era - South to North

"By the way, this industry you mentioned will eventually turn into a gangster society, so what's going on?" Zhang Chen asked Xiaofang.

"It's very simple. Let's first see how the money goes out." Xiaofang said, "It's so easy for you to borrow money from these platforms now. As long as you have a business license, a company can borrow several money from different platforms. The money can be transferred to an individual with an ID card. The borrower's loan information on all these platforms is not entered into the central bank's credit system.

“When applying for a loan at a bank, the bank only needs to check your corporate or personal credit report, how many loans you have, which banks you have borrowed from, including corporate legal persons, whether you have loans, how many credit cards you have in total, etc. , clear at a glance.

"If you have a large number of loans that exceed the current scale of your business and involve many banks, the bank will be alert and they will feel that your use of funds is abnormal. Moreover, if you need funds, why not go to the same bank? , enlarging the credit scale. Generally speaking, if your business is operating well, the bank will continue to enlarge the loan limit for you.

"At the same time, including whether your loan is overdue, whether you have any interest arrears, the repayment record of the corporate credit card, etc., are all on it. As long as you have a bad credit record, no bank will lend you another loan.

“As I said before, the risk control of these platforms is completely blank, and it is not included in the credit reporting system management. This means that even if the borrowers do not repay their money, it will not affect the credit reporting of enterprises and individuals. Under such circumstances, their money is not just put away, but all the money will be lost in the end.

“Coupled with high interest rates, this weakens the borrower’s repayment ability and further expands the risk.

"What should you do if you don't get the money back? If you owe a credit card, the bank can call the police or at least go to court to sue you. The same is true if your company owes a loan. The bank can sue you and enforce your collateral or you and the guarantor. As for the assets, the bank has at least implemented early guarantee measures in this regard.

"As for these platforms, there are basically no guarantee measures, and there is no way to sue you. Even if you sue, there is no way for him to win."

"Why is this?" Zhang Chen didn't understand. "Why can't he even sue you?"

"The money he gives you is not his own. If it is his own money, he will be suspected of illegal fund-raising. It is the own funds of their platform. Because they do not have a financial license, they cannot engage in financial business. No Say that he will lend you his own money directly. Even if he wants to lend you money, he can only use an entrusted loan through a bank.

"By the way, although in actual business activities, it is common for companies to borrow money from each other, this is actually not allowed by law. Borrowing funds between companies is not allowed, let alone collecting funds. Interest, so this kind of money can only be recorded as current money in accounting. However, if the current money is not returned after a certain period of time, it is also illegal.

"All these online loan platforms, in name, can only be said to play the role of information transmission. When implemented in the contract, it is peer-to-peer. My money is lent to you, although it is actually my money that arrived on the platform first, or The platform will help me split it up and lend it out. I will give you 10,000 yuan. The platform will lend the money to three or four people. When it is implemented in the contract, it is a contract between me and you or those three or four people.

"Then the question arises. How can the platform sue you if you owe money and haven't repaid it? You have no borrowing relationship with the platform. Even if you want to sue, I will sue. In the contract, I am the lender, but in fact, How can I sue? 10,000 yuan is not enough for me to sue several people, hire a lawyer to pay the litigation fees, and the related expenses, right?

"Needless to say, there are other losses involved, such as the issue that excessive interest rates are not protected by law and the issue of beheading interest. If a borrower borrows a thousand dollars from these platforms, the borrower may actually get nine thousand dollars. Yes, interest and other expenses are deducted first, but legally, these are not recognized.

"The so-called interest has only one calculation method legally, and that is after you use the principal, interest will accrue. Therefore, when it comes to court, the borrower's loan can only be calculated as nine hundred, not one thousand. , In this way, I will suffer losses as soon as I sue. What's more, as I said before, there is no way to sue. It is too difficult.

"Then I am a lender, what should I do if I want to get my principal back? There is still a way. Many platforms mistakenly believe that they can evade their repayment responsibilities, but in fact they cannot.

"As long as my money is not transferred directly to you, but is transferred to the platform account, I can sue the platform. Even if I have no contract with the platform, I can also sue for unjust enrichment, and I have the right to get the money back. The platform cannot escape this responsibility.

"What's more, if there are too many such things and the public security intervenes, they will directly investigate the platform as a disguised illegal fund-raising. The reason is that your platform is actually self-financing. Therefore, at this time, the platform has only two options. One The idea is to find a way to repay this part of the money without causing a thunderstorm, or to run away.

"What should I do if the platform does not want to run away, but has no money to repay, and it is impossible for it to sue the borrower? The simplest and cheapest way is to use private relief, that is, to use underworld methods to ask for money. So, In the end, this entire industry will become a gangster, which is an inevitable result.

"In other words, as soon as we start to crack down on the underworld, a large number of bad debts will appear on these platforms. Now even the credit card debt collection companies entrusted by banks have already become underworld-oriented, let alone them."

Zhang Chen nodded. He felt that what Xiaofang said made sense, but he still had a question in his mind. He said:

"But when I was eating earlier, companies in Hangzhou all had money to entrust Mr. Huang and his company to launch their platforms. I didn't hear them say that such a thing had happened."

"That's because the time has not come yet. In one or two years, these problems will explode." Xiaofang said, "From last year to this year, how many such platforms have appeared, and those borrowers are switching from different platforms When you are borrowing money, you don’t know it at all. As I said before, these are not subject to credit reporting. No one knows the actual situation at all.”

"Are you saying that their repayments were actually borrowed from other platforms?" Zhang Chen asked.

"Yes, to be precise, it's a U-turn of funds. He owes this platform two thousand. When the repayment date comes, he borrows two thousand from other platforms to pay it back. You thought he had good credit, so he will borrow another two thousand from you tomorrow. Five thousand or three thousand, that's it. A borrower operates dozens of platforms at the same time, moves funds between these platforms, and snowballs his debt.

“But there will always be a day when they can’t get out. As long as there is a group of people who can’t get out, the money they owe to all the platforms will become bad debts. These borrowers can be said to connect all the platforms through their debts. If they are connected together, as long as this group of people can't move away, the risks of the entire industry will come. As long as the P2P mine explodes, it will explode in a series.

"Some people have been telling regulators that the risks of small loans are low. Who said the risks of small loans are low? If a person needs to borrow even two thousand, do you think it is easy for him to repay the two thousand? Is it? The risk is actually the same as owing 20,002,000,000. When I see the current situation of Internet finance in our country, do you know what I think of? "

Xiaofang looked at Zhang Chen and asked. Zhang Chen shook his head and asked, "What did you think of?"

"Thinking of Fannie and Freddie, it was the subprime mortgage crisis that caused the collapse of the entire Wall Street in 2008. The logic is the same. Fannie and Freddie sold houses to people who were unable to buy houses. Our current P2P finance is to transfer a large amount of money , lent it to someone who has no ability to repay it. If you are not careful, the thunder that explodes will not be smaller than that of Fanfang."

Xiaofang sighed as she spoke, and said: "Actually, what I told you was written into an article when I was abroad this time to remind the supervisors to pay attention. But unfortunately, no domestic media was willing to publish it. They I think it’s inappropriate. The higher-ups are still encouraging Internet innovation, so you’re here to pour cold water on it? The media in Hong Kong are willing to publish it, but what’s the use?”

Hearing what Xiaofang said, Zhang Chen also felt that this matter was important. He thought for a while and said to Xiaofang:

"Give me this article."

"What do you want to do?" Xiaofang asked curiously.

"I think you are right. I will send your article to Sun Hou and Li Yong tomorrow to see if I can pass on your opinions through them and attract the attention of the higher-ups."

Zhang Chen said to Xiaofang, Xiaofang nodded and said yes.

Zhang Chen thought of another thing, and asked: "According to you, Zheng Huihong's company will also have risks. Aren't they also doing business loans for those sellers? And their Huabei, isn't it with credit cards?" almost?"

"It's different. They use big data analysis to do risk control through technical means. It can be said that they do better than banks and us. We don't have such technical means."

Xiaofang looked at Zhang Chen and continued:

"Their entrepreneurial loans are cooperated with China Construction Bank. They are issued through China Construction Bank, and there are no problems with compliance. Technically, they rely on big data analysis. For example, how many goods does your company sell with them every month? They have data on how many raw materials there are, and with the joint guarantee of three companies, the risk control is very good.

"As for Huabei you mentioned, the same is true. Their credit limit is also based on your behavior on Dibao.com, after collecting all your data, and making a precise analysis. Based on this, your credit limit and repayment ability are determined. How much do you spend online each month, including whether you consume necessities, luxury goods, snacks, etc.

"From each of your purchases, the computer will calculate whether you have surplus food. For example, if you only buy daily necessities on Taobao.com every month, your economic conditions will definitely be inferior to those who often buy snacks and Luxury.

"The quality of your life can also be analyzed based on the quality of the things you buy. Similar to this, computers can have tens of thousands of analysis methods to dissect you and understand you better than you know yourself.

“The judgments made using big data are more objective and solid than those we rely on manually. This is why I say we can’t do it, but we can judge the future of this company through communication with the management team. , this is something that computers can’t do.”

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