The Rebirth of the Financial Hegemon
Vol 3 Chapter 76: it's a pit
Newbies who have just entered the speculative market often have a lot of basis for establishing positions.
There are people who buy and sell by listening to news, those who buy and sell by watching the news, and those who buy and sell by lot...
After a little more evolution, study various technical indicators for position building.
What kdJ, Macd golden fork to buy, dead fork to sell and other tricky operations...
Or focus on researching the fundamentals of the industry as an investment basis.
A little more high-tech, there is some kind of quantitative trading module, or some kind of intelligent trading software.
It is very high, and it seems to be very high.
However this is of no use.
Alpha dog, who defeated the national Go player, was beaten alive in the market and became a waste dog.
It turns out that no matter what tricks traders use to trade, the 28/20 profit and loss rule will never change.
Many people have become green barley-like dishes in round after round of harvesting in the market.
This has led many people to develop various conspiracy theories when they doubt life.
Some people may even think that the main force is probably eyeing the little funds in his hands.
In this regard, those institutions that are regarded as the main force and those institutions that go bankrupt every year can only shout that the current retail investors are so cunning.
If the harvest fails, it will be the sun.
Even a government of a country does not have an absolute chance of winning in that highly complex market.
Every year, a country suffers major losses due to strategic mistakes.
Historically, there are not only one or two countries that have lost money to become indebted and bankrupt.
This seems to prove that there is simply no right way to trade in the world.
There is no right way to invest.
Otherwise, how could a company or a fund backed by the state go bankrupt due to losses.
Whether it is technical flow or fundamental research, whether it is small capital or the so-called main force, there is only one dead end in the end.
For value investors, what you invest in is always worthless in the end.
Technical flow traders, and often die of technology.
All in all, the investment market is highly complex.
In this highly complex market, value and technology simply do not exist.
However, in this market where value and technology do not exist, there are still people who will never decline like evergreen trees.
soros.
This financial crocodile that makes the whole of Europe fear three points is the evergreen tree.
From the day the Quantum Fund was established, there has been no defeat.
Soros, who has accumulated a lot of money, led the Quantum Fund to gain momentum in the financial market with an annual compound interest of more than 30%.
Because Soros has a pair of eyes that see through the essence.
The market is very simple.
But the human heart is complicated, too complicated to see the simplest things clearly.
Under the interference of information and the long-term thinking mode, people will always complicate simple things.
Because people are too smart.
Smart people always think a lot, and smart people always solve problems in smart ways.
Like the collision of billiards.
Smart people always think about what happens to the force of the impact and the arc of the reflection from a certain location.
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There's nothing wrong with that.
But the fault is that smart people are always conceited.
Smart people always refuse to admit their mistakes when they make mistakes.
Smart people are smart.
When the calculation is correct, it is time to calculate the smarter way of working.
Soros is also a smart man.
But he is also a very simple smart man.
As a generation of speculators, he knows that the market only goes in two directions.
Either up or down.
If you are looking in one direction, just believe in yourself like a pig.
As early as two years ago, after numerous research and analysis, Soros began to be bearish on the Southeast Asian economy.
He has been convinced that the economies of these countries will decline, and that their currencies will depreciate.
In this regard, Soros is convinced.
Therefore, after confirming that the decline of the Thai baht should not be a trap, Soros has a deep sense of grievance.
In a pure market, there are only two results, up and down.
But if you have to say something that determines this relationship, it's only two words.
trend.
The general trend is like a surging river, which can be sparse but not blocked.
Under the general trend, whether it is a country or an individual, it is a drop in the ocean.
Follow the general trend to win the country's fortune, and follow the trend to make profits.
Soros is convinced of this.
Thousands of years of records in the history books have long recorded that the general situation cannot be violated.
Rubles, British pounds, pesos to renminbi…
All market results are perfect proof of what is irresistible.
In various analyses, it has long been proved that the economic development of Southeast Asia has reached a bottleneck.
The economic recession in these countries is already unstoppable.
Thailand's fixed exchange rate and highly independent financial market, as well as the hollowing out of rapid development, make the Thai baht the first link to collapse.
ASEAN's motto is that one prospers and one loses, and under the tied interests, as long as the Thai baht collapses, the currencies of other countries will inevitably follow.
It's like a cog. If one link goes wrong, it will explode.
So after confirming this, Soros will openly attack Myanmar.
The general trend is inevitable, but there is one more sentence.
Times make heroes, heroes make times.
The attack on Myanmar was a campaign carefully prepared by Soros.
Myanmar, next to Thailand.
Due to their geographical location, the two countries have very close ties economically.
As long as there is a problem with Myanmar's currency, it is bound to have an impact on Thailand's economic system.
People are always blind.
Once the kyat collapses, the Thai currency, which is next to Myanmar, will be infected with panic.
This is called the herd effect.
As one of the giants at the top of the pyramid of this era, Soros can say that no one can control the weakness of human nature.
It turned out that Soros' judgment was correct and his campaign was successful.
Under his strong criticism, the kyat suffered a huge sell-off. In the sharp depreciation of the kyat, the Thai baht also immediately had a chain reaction.
The result was in line with Soros' judgment, but it was not the result he hoped to see.
In other words, this is not the result he wants to see now.
Ordinary investors will infer the consequences based on their own judgment, and then establish positions in advance based on the inferred results.
But Soros is different.
He knew that he was only a man, not an omnipotent God.
The results can be recommended according to the trajectory, but the results may not necessarily be consistent with the deduction.
To prove your deduction is correct, the result is the most powerful explanation.
He needs to wait for the market to verify his judgment before opening a position.
As long as the results are correct, it is never too late to open a position.
This is where Soros is frustrated.
The collapse of the baht proved that his deduction was correct, and it also proved the success of his campaign.
But the funds that broke the Thai baht were billions of dollars, funds that had nothing to do with him and the Quantum Fund.
This means that everything he has done painstakingly has made wedding dresses for others.
Someone got ahead of him and attacked the baht.
Soros is a person after all.
He worked hard to calculate the layout, but in the end, someone else grabbed the top spot, and everyone was so angry that he vomited blood.
This is a great shame for Soros.
Since the Quantum Fund became famous, which general push and attack has not been dominated by the Quantum Fund.
But now, I don't know who has seized the opportunity.
This made Soros feel very suffocated.
Unlike Robinson, a tiger accustomed to hunting.
Soros likes the feeling of being in a hurry.
The feeling that one word decides the life and death of a country makes Soros feel like he has the authority of God.
In addition, that kind of clear-cut position also allows him to leave a lot of money on offense.
In the past, where the Quantum Fund Bing Feng pointed, there would be countless funds willing to be the pawns who waved the flag and shouted.
These are the benefits of fame.
Under the fame, just one sentence can mobilize thousands of troops.
But now, this kind of authority has been snatched from him.
But there is no way to get bored.
No one can change what has happened.
Soros is very human after all.
After confirming that nothing can be changed, adjust your mentality quickly.
After rubbing his chin a few times in the habit, he said to Stanley Druckenmiller, his most capable officer.
"Stanley, find out who got the hand before us."
Druckenmiller, as Soros's number one fighter, knows Soros's character very well.
Druckenmiller knew that his boss was deeply resentful this time.
But Druckenmiller was also curious about who could actually get ahead of the Quantum Fund.
The timing of that unknown fund was too good and too bold.
You know, even the Quantum Fund does not dare to easily spend billions of dollars to attack the Thai baht.
A country's goods system represents the sovereignty of a country. Without absolute certainty, no one dares to attack easily.
But the market is always full of variables.
Not Almighty God, no one can have absolute certainty.
Who will it be?
Intrigued, Druckenmiller immediately started an investigation by intelligence agencies.
Soon, the results came out.
With the intelligence system mastered by the Quantum Fund, there are very few things that cannot be found in the capital market.
Not to mention the circulation of billions of dollars, no matter how clever the tactics are, it is impossible to hide such a large amount of funds.
Jushi Asset Management, an asset management company under Jushi Capital.
After knowing the name, Soros was speechless for a moment.
The name Boulder Capital has become very famous recently because it was the company that suddenly bought Standard Chartered Bank.
A long time ago, Soros sent someone to investigate the origin of Boulder Capital.
But unfortunately, except for some obvious things, nothing of value can be found at all.
Apart from learning that the company is ostensibly in the hands of a Chinese, there is no greater gain.
In the office, Soros and Druckenmiller were relatively silent.
After a long time, Soros whispered to himself.
"Boulder Capital..."
"Boss, what should we do now?"
"Stanley, what do you think?"
"I think that since the current baht's movement is in line with our judgment, then we should continue with the previous plan."
"how do you want to do it."
"I'm going to take a $2 billion position."
"Stanley, do what you want..."
In terms of personnel, Soros can be said to have impeccable charm.
At that time, he had enough trust in Druckenmiller to leave the Quantum Fund for Druckenmiller.
Now, he still won't influence any of Druckenmiller's decisions.
The sudden collapse of the Thai baht has caught all major capitals around the world preparing to attack the Thai baht by surprise.
However, in the trend of the market, these capitals all began to choose to establish short positions in the Thai baht.
Soon, the name of Jushi Capital was known to everyone in the circle.
Many people are curious about this name.
When Jushi Capital acquired Standard Chartered, many people inquired about the company's origins. Now, this little-known company has actually taken the lead in launching an attack on a country's sovereign currency.
For a time, the name of Jushi Capital became the most famous name in the financial industry, and even faintly competed with the Quantum Fund Tiger Fund for the limelight.
In contrast, the culprit does not know how to explain it.
Jushi Capital Hong Kong headquarters.
Zhao Jiangchuan watched the market trend like a dumb goose in a daze.
On his face, there was no show of arrogance at all.
With this fellow's temperament, it is very unreasonable.
After gaining sufficient strength, Zhao Jiangchuan was no longer prepared to continue to keep a low profile.
However, the current Zhao Jiangchuan has only confused and innocent face on his face.
He felt as if he had gone a bit too far.
Jushi Capital was the first to leverage 10 billion USD of Thai baht with 1 billion USD~www.readwn.com~ After discovering that adding leverage would kill himself, Zhao Jiangchuan had no choice but to go to the Thai stock market to make some money Pay interest.
As a hooker, this guy fine-tuned the hook to an optimal module.
Accidentally, he made 160 billion baht in the Thai stock market.
With so much money, Zhao Jiangchuan is also very guilty.
He knew that the Thai baht would collapse.
What's wrong.
Of course, before the Thai baht collapses, I will exchange some dollars for it.
Otherwise, the Thai baht will depreciate in the future, and the Thai baht assets in his hands will not be lost.
But Zhao Jiangchuan didn't expect that there would be a problem with this change.
Jushi Asset Management is very careful to sell one billion baht in the spot market every day, but before three days have passed, the baht has dropped from 23 to 26.
With this result, Zhao Jiangchuan was as dumbfounded as everyone else.
In other words, he is more embarrassed than others.
Standing outside the chessboard, Zhao Jiangchuan is very clear about the Bank of Thailand's family.
It is definitely not something that can be defeated by billions.
Logically speaking, it is impossible for his three billion dollars to break the defense line of the Bank of Thailand.
Moreover, in addition to the Bank of Thailand, and its ally the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
The combination of these two companies once made international short-term capital be crying father and mother.
Even the Tiger Fund and the Quantum Fund were beaten all over at the beginning.
But now, with a mere $3 billion, he has broken through the elastic range of the Thai baht.
This makes no sense.
Suddenly, Zhao Jiangchuan's dazed eyes lit up.
He suddenly understood what was going on.
What, it's a pit!
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