The Son of Finance of the Great Age

  Chapter 223 Bangkok Clouds (1)

   "It really relaxes my whole body!"

After returning home, Zhong Shi stretched comfortably, but was surprised to find that Andrew and Liao Xiaohua were sitting upright in the living room, their eyes staring at the front without moving. Children, and sitting opposite them was Zhong Shi's father, Zhong Jianjun, who was speaking in Cantonese that was not very proficient.

  Zhong Shi had a headache, and was about to run away, but Liu Lan, who was sharp-eyed, saw him and shouted towards the living room: "The stone is back!"

Hearing Liu Lan's shout, Zhong Jianjun could only stop his long talk, glared at Zhong Shi, and said unceremoniously: "I'm about to graduate from university, and I'm still running around. I've been out of shape all day. Take a look at your two friends, and learn from them when you have time!" After saying that, he gave Zhong Shi another vicious look, and then walked upstairs slowly.

  Zhong Shi scratched his head, sat down in Zhong Jianjun's position with some helplessness, and pretended to be fierce and said to the two who couldn't help laughing: "What are you doing here? Didn't I tell you not to come to my house if you don't have important matters?"

   "It's like this. We just got an extremely reliable news, and we couldn't contact you, so we had to come here." After suppressing his smile for a long time, Andrew returned to normal, sat up straight, and said seriously.

  As soon as he heard that he was talking about business, Liao Xiaohua also put on a straight face, looking at Zhong Shi expectantly, with a look of extreme longing in his two bloodshot eyes.

   "Oh? What's the matter?" Seeing that the two were speaking so seriously, Zhong Shi also became serious and looked at Andrew seriously.

"According to the information I have received, international hot money, especially American hedge funds, are attacking Thailand's baht on a large scale. It is said that they have mobilized as much as 10 billion U.S. dollars." Andrew said with a stern face, "except in the spot foreign exchange market , It is said that they have also established a considerable number of short positions in forward foreign exchange transactions, and now they are using a two-pronged approach to prepare to beat down the Thai baht in one fell swoop."

   "Uh..." Zhong Shi was speechless for a while, and then he lay back on the sofa and said lazily, "That's all you heard? Andrew, your market sense is a bit too dull, right?"

   "Why, you know all about it?" Andrew's face showed obvious astonishment, but after seeing Zhong Shi's expression, he became excited again, "Zhong Sheng, didn't you hear the news a long time ago?"

  Zhong Shi shook his head, and said slowly: "I didn't hear the wind, but the exchange rate between the yen and the dollar has depreciated sharply recently. In other words, the dollar has strengthened and the yen has weakened. Do you know this?"

   "Of course we know this, but what does it have to do with the attack on the Thai baht I just said?" Andrew looked at Liao Xiaohua, saw that he was also puzzled, and turned his head to continue asking.

"It's a big deal!" Zhong Shi looked resentful, and then analyzed one by one with his fingers, "A stronger U.S. dollar means a stronger currency linked to the U.S. dollar, which is a disaster for countries whose currencies are pegged to the U.S. dollar. , especially countries that rely on exports and foreign investment to drive economic growth. Think about it, what are the countries like this?"

   "Thailand?" Andrew suddenly realized, and blurted out.

"It seems to be more than that!" Liao Xiaohua thought for a while, and said one by one, "Thailand should be just one of them, and there are Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and South Korea. The currencies of these countries are mostly fixed exchange rates, and most of them are It’s pegged to the U.S. dollar.”

  In fact, the currencies of most countries can only be pegged to the U.S. dollar, because their currencies cannot be globalized at all, nor will they become settlement currencies in international trade, so they can only circulate in one country or region at most.

This is the pattern formed after the Second World War. At that time, the United Kingdom and the United States fought openly and secretly on the international currency, but in the end, due to the strong national strength of the United States, the "Bretton Woods" with the US dollar as the central currency was formed. system".

   "Huaxia's renminbi seems to be pegged to the U.S. dollar." Liao Xiaohua finally added.

   "Huaxia is not a problem." Zhong Shi waved his hand, signaling that Liao Xiaohua had lost his mind. "What I want you to consider is that countries with open capital accounts are countries with free currency and foreign banks."

   What a joke, there is no possibility of a currency crisis for Huaxia at this time. Because currency cannot be exchanged freely, even if there is a certain amount for exchange, it is impossible for large amounts of US dollar funds to enter Huaxia in the form of hot money. Even if QFII was later opened up, that is, specific foreign investors can directly invest in China's stock market, but there is still a certain amount.

   "If this is the case, then there are only a few countries such as Thailand, Singapore, and South Korea!" Liao Xiaohua said with certainty after thinking for a while.

"That's right! These are the countries!" Zhong Shi nodded approvingly, "Although the economic situations of these countries are different, they all have a fixed exchange rate system and are more dependent on export orientation. Because once the domestic currency appreciates and the export is unfavorable, then There will be big problems in the domestic economy. At this time, those international predators are like sharks smelling blood, and will soon attack the currency systems of these countries.”

   "Just like Thailand now?" Andrew already understood a little bit, but still asked.

"That's right!" Zhong Shi nodded, "Let me analyze Thailand's economic situation for you. Although Thailand quickly completed its industrialization process by attracting a large amount of foreign capital in the early 1990s, these capitals can only transfer production costs. We must know that Thailand itself is not a big consumer market, so the products produced are destined to be exported again.”

   "What's more terrible is that not all the funds are invested in the production sector, and a considerable amount of funds are invested in Thailand's securities and real estate markets. This will inevitably form a bubble, just like Japan a few years ago."

"Since the year before last (95), with the appreciation of the Thai baht, Thailand's exports have been hit hard. Last year, the export growth was only 3% higher than the previous year, which means that the export-driven economic growth has reached its peak. And the real estate market has a huge bubble. It is said that houses worth 20 billion US dollars cannot be sold in Bangkok. You must know what supports the real estate industry, which is bank loans. These unsold houses will inevitably become bad debts of the bank .With the collapse of the real estate industry, the banking system has also been exposed to huge risks."

"Looking at Bangkok's stock market again, it has been constrained by the bubble in the real estate market since last year and has begun to slump. If you can't make money in the stock market, the new capital will decrease. Without new capital support, it will be difficult for listed companies to raise funds. This will deal a fatal blow to production and even consumption.”

"The most important point is that when Thailand's economy is hesitating, capital from foreign countries will naturally look for the next economic growth point. It is important to know that most of these foreign capitals come from Japan. Under the circumstances, these yen capital cannot get the corresponding income in Thailand, they will withdraw from Thailand and invest in China instead.”

  At this time, China's coastal areas are carrying out a campaign of three links and one leveling in full swing to attract foreign capital and technology. The so-called three links and one leveling, that is, water, electricity, roads, and site leveling. It means that as long as the funds are in place, the factory building can be started immediately.

In addition to the support of hardware conditions, Huaxia also has an advantage that Southeast Asian countries cannot match, that is, it has the largest market in the world, and its consumption capacity is far from being fully developed. It can be said that this place has a big heart, The market is as big as it is.

"With the collapse of the domestic economy and the flight of foreign funds, you can all imagine the tragic end of Thailand!" After finishing speaking, Zhong Shi lit a cigarette and thought maliciously in the curling smoke, the financial crisis in Southeast Asia It's really here!

   "Can't the Thai government announce free floating?" Liao Xiaohua was terrified when he heard it, because he thought that not only Thailand, but even the countries he mentioned just now have various economic problems. According to Zhong Shi's analysis, isn't the currency of these countries all at risk of being attacked?

  He suddenly realized that Hong Kong is also a region linked to the US dollar, and it is also a regional financial center. If international hot money starts a currency war, then Hong Kong may also be attacked. Thinking of this, he couldn't help shivering all over his body, and cold sweat the size of soybeans appeared on his forehead.

  Andrew doesn't care. He is a believer in the free market and is extremely disgusted with any behavior that interferes with the market. So when I heard about this kind of currency war, not only did I not have the slightest worry, but the more I heard it, the more excited I became, wishing that I could immediately devote myself to a big fight.

Zhong Shi looked at Liao Xiaohua, whose face had obviously changed, and then at Andrew, who was still indifferent, and then said leisurely: "Impossible! The Thai government is determined to become the center of the regional economy. The policy supported by mentality does not allow them to take the initiative to choose a floating exchange rate system unless it is a last resort. In fact, since January this year, the Thai baht has faced continuous attacks from international hot money, but until now the Thai baht has remained within a fixed range. Not to mention that Thailand has done a very good job."

  Although he was praising the Thai government, both Liao Xiaohua and Andrew could hear that Zhong Shi's tone was not optimistic, which showed that Zhong Shi was not optimistic about the continued support of the Thai government.

   "This doesn't work, that doesn't work either. Is there no other way?" Liao Xiaohua stood up suddenly and shouted angrily.

  For Liao Xiaohua's sudden gaffe, Andrew was clearly unprepared, and hurriedly moved aside, shouting incessantly, "Relax, buddy, relax."

   "It's not impossible!" Zhong Shi curled his lips, and didn't mind Liao Xiaohua's slightly exaggerated reaction, "It's not certain who will win. You must know that Thailand has an extremely strong ally!"

   Thank you very much book friends Ga Geli and Fu Shen Zhang for voting monthly tickets!

  (end of this chapter)