The Son of Finance of the Great Age

  Chapter 238 Sitting on a mountain and watching tigers fight?

  Malaga synthesized almost all available information, coupled with his long-term experience as the governor of the central bank, to come up with such a shocking conclusion. He wasn't sure if the Thai government knew about the whole plot, but even if they did, they probably wouldn't be able to stop it.

Although he was a human being in two lifetimes, Zhong Shi did not come to any conclusions in this regard. This is because no matter whether he was in the previous life or the present life, his contact range was limited to the financial circle, and he rarely had access to high-level politics, so naturally he was not clear about it. way.

   Zhong Shi, who is launching a fierce attack on the Thai baht, is obviously unaware that he is doing things that are helping the evildoers. But even if he knew, he probably wouldn’t stop, because the first is that capital is inherently profit-seeking, and the second is that he knows that in later generations, with the great help of the mainland government, Hong Kong successfully resisted this A financial crisis.

  At this time, most insiders’ understanding of the current situation in Thailand is only in the currency crisis stage, and not many people realize that this currency crisis is about to evolve into a financial crisis, which will severely hit the real economies of Southeast Asian countries.

"How?" When Zhong Shi returned to the Tianyu Fund, he saw that most of the researchers had not left, and gathered together in small groups to discuss something. He shook his head, knowing that they must be discussing selling Thai baht today move. The specific executor, Andrew, was surrounded by a group of researchers, explaining something profusely in sweat.

Seeing Zhongshi appearing, Andrew let out a sigh of relief, wiped the sweat from his forehead, and yelled at Zhongshi who was not far away: "The task has been completed, but I have been questioning these researchers for a long time, and it is still you Let’s explain to them why we’re short.”

   "Hey, the topic person, didn't you say you won't short the Thai baht?" Although the researchers knew that it was Zhong Shi's order, few of them had the guts to ask Zhong Shi face to face.

The reason for this kind of prestige is not only because Zhong Shi is the founder and largest investor of this company, but also because Zhong Shi’s investment performance is astonishing, and even once destroyed the currency system of a country, although this incident has never happened. It has been confirmed from Zhongshi's mouth.

   "Did I say that?" Andrew rolled his eyes and retorted unceremoniously, "What I said clearly is that so far, there has been no shorting of the Thai baht. Please go back and take a good look!"

Since Andrew successfully "predicted" the situation in Thailand, these researchers have often used what Andrew said on TV to squeeze him. They also know that such remarks aimed at the public are half-truths and half-false, and basically cannot be used as a manipulator reference.

  Although these researchers didn't take it seriously, Andrew was very serious, just because he enjoyed the life under the aura of celebrity at this moment very much. Not long ago, the Financial Times specially invited him to do an exclusive interview, and even revealed the meaning of asking him to write a column during the conversation, which made Andrew very proud.

  At that time, Andrew came to Hong Kong from the United Kingdom and worked hard in a foreign country. If he hadn't met Zhong Shi, his life trajectory would have been different. Now he seems to have become one of the hottest analysts in Hong Kong's financial circle, and even after the report of the Financial Times came out, he became a little famous in the British circle.

  Just two days ago, a headhunter called Andrew and asked him to come out for a talk. Andrew, who was overjoyed in his heart, dealt with it calmly, and replied to the other party with a rough number. Although he had no intention of changing jobs, the young headhunter was obviously frightened by the bargaining chips Andrew wanted. Even coffee He left in a hurry without finishing his drink.

   Following Zhong Shi in the past few years, Andrew has already had a net worth of over 100 million, and this figure is still calculated in US dollars. He naturally looks down on the price offered by the funds that want to poach him. The reason why he agreed to meet with the headhunter was naturally to satisfy his bad taste.

Seeing that the eyes of the researchers were full of longing, but after a long time, no one came forward to ask, Zhong Shi was a little speechless. He stroked his smooth chin and said half-jokingly and half-seriously: "I'm really Is it so terrible? Doesn’t anyone dare to ask the real reason?”

  Hearing Zhong Shi's self-deprecating words, the researchers burst into laughter. Amidst the somewhat insincere laughter, a sharp voice suddenly sounded: "They are not afraid of you, but they are in awe of you." The laughter stopped immediately, and almost all the researchers turned their eyes to the speaker .

   "It's you, why haven't you been fired?" Zhong Shi laughed when he saw the speaker, and couldn't help joking.

   The speaker was Ma Jiarui, the only researcher who made money on the Thai baht futures contract some time ago. It was he who speculated that there should be allies in Thailand, and took the opportunity to make a lot of money by doing long Thai baht. Since the last public debate with Zhong Shi and others, his confidence has greatly increased, and he has spoken a lot more than usual.

   "I'm an ace analyst. It's because of Andrew's vision that I'm going to be fired." Ma Jiarui was amused, and quickly retorted, without losing the slightest bit of wind in his words.

  Although Andrew is said to be the investment director of the entire Tianyu Fund, his director is only responsible for personnel affairs, specifically the personnel director and external public relations. Because Tianyu Fund has no intention of opening up to the outside world at all, so the so-called external public relations are basically equivalent to having nothing to do, so Andrew's specific job is to fire people.

"Since you call yourself a trump card analyst, then explain to everyone why I sold Thai baht." Zhong Shi laughed, and left the task of explanation to Ma Jiarui, just to test whether he was really talented or not. Hit and miss.

"I said last time that the Thai baht can resist this currency crisis, but we still have to choose to short the Thai baht, which is actually not contradictory. The reason why I said it can resist the last currency crisis is because Thailand is not a pure free market , the government’s influence on the market is far stronger than the outside world imagines, as can be seen from the fact that local banks are prohibited from lending funds to foreign investors. But first of all, the support of Southeast Asian countries to Thailand will not be unlimited, because Thailand’s domestic economic situation is relatively bad, especially the financial industry. Secondly, the attack by international capital on the Thai baht will definitely not be a one-time attack. Even if this time it is unsuccessful, they may be planning the next attack.”

"According to my tracking of the U.S. market, I recently discovered an extremely interesting phenomenon. The yield of one-year U.S. Treasury bonds has recently risen by eleven basis points, and the yields of U.S. government bonds in other years have also risen to varying degrees. There is no rumor of raising interest rates. In fact, the Federal Reserve is entering a channel of interest rate cuts. This shows that someone has sold a large number of government bonds in the market. There are a handful of institutions that can do that. And that raises another question, what do they do with the money they raise by selling so much Treasuries?"

"Speaking of which, I think everyone has a basic idea, that is, international hedge funds are planning to attack Thailand for the second time. Although I don't know where their logic is for attacking again, there is no doubt that now The whole world's financial hotspots are focused on the baht, if they are not planning to short the baht, I really can't think of a second market!"

As soon as the analysis was mentioned, Ma Jiarui's face immediately became extremely serious. He cleared his throat, glanced at Zhong Shi again, and seeing him nodding and smiling, he analyzed boldly and blurted out the whole sentence without the slightest pause. It is a well-thought-out plan and a well-prepared plan.

  When he was speaking, his eyes exuded an astonishing confidence. This powerful confidence infected most of the people present with his eloquent analysis, making them involuntarily agree with his statement.

"What if we invest in Russia's bond market?" Just as Ma Jiarui finished speaking, when everyone was still in deep thought, a voice retorted that the speaker was Ren Ruowei, who was not weak at all in terms of macroeconomic analysis. Yu Ma Jiarui. "You must know that the yield of the Russian government bond market is huge, even if the Thai baht depreciates, it may not be comparable."

"No! It won't be the Russian market!" Ma Jiarui categorically denied, "First of all, the Russian government bond market is limited and may not be able to accommodate so much funds. If you invest in the Russian government bond market in advance, you only need to continue to roll over to continue to make profits. You must know that the ruble has depreciated so badly that the risk of Russian national debt is not so great. Secondly, even if they really invest in the Russian national debt market, they do not need to sell US national debt. They can use this national debt as collateral to borrow at low cost. Then invest the funds in the Russian government bond market. Doing so now not only gives up the benefits of US government bonds, but also bears certain risks, which is definitely not what professionals do.”

  Ren Ruowei lowered his head and thought for a while, raised his head again after a long time, and nodded at Ma Jiarui, indicating that what he said was very correct.

Seeing that there was no voice of refutation, Ma Jiarui went on to say: "What we are doing now is to seize such a vacuum period and consume Thailand's current foreign exchange reserves at the fastest speed. After the funds from the United States enter the market, we will You can sit on the mountain and watch the tigers fight."

   "You are wrong!" Zhong Shi interrupted him in time, "We are not sitting on the mountain and watching the tigers fight, we are the ones who will finally bring down the Bank of Thailand!"

   "How is this possible?" As soon as this remark came out, almost everyone was stunned. Their first reaction was that this is impossible. After all, Thailand recently announced that it has US$30 billion in foreign exchange reserves, which is almost four times the size of the current Tianyu Fund. No matter how leverage is used, with the scale of the Tianyu Fund, I am afraid that it will not be able to destroy Thailand's foreign exchange system.

   Thank you very much Demon Dragon War Ghost and Mouse Fly for voting monthly tickets!

  (end of this chapter)