The Son of Finance of the Great Age

  Chapter 255 Exclusive News (3)

   While Zhong Shi was going to deal with trivial matters, Ma Jiarui directed the short selling activities of the entire Tianyu Fund. It is not a command, because they only need to sell at the lowest price of Thai baht.

Soon, the market realized that another wave of short sellers had also joined the ranks of short sellers. There had been a sudden attack before, but it was stopped by the intervention of the BOT not long after. At the time of the tentative attack, another wave of short selling surged. It made them realize that something might happen on this day.

  America, inside the Tiger Fund, Billy King is staring at the numbers on the screen, and communicating with his operation team from time to time.

  This is just a team of Tiger Fund shorting the Thai baht. It is mainly responsible for seeking arbitrage opportunities in the short-term Thai baht market, that is, buying low and selling high quickly. The reason why this team was set up is to solve the problem of Thai baht positions.

  Because Thailand imposes punitive loan interest rates on offshore investors, if the Thai baht cannot be destroyed in the short term, this cost will destroy the speculators. Hedge funds shorting the Thai baht also predicted the relevant situation and prepared this hedging method of buying the Thai baht at a low price.

  Because the intervention of BOT is inevitable, when the price of Thai baht in the market is low, these groups start to frantically absorb Thai baht, and then wait until the BOT intervenes to sell this part of Thai baht to earn the relevant price difference. Of course, their positions cannot be compared with the number of short sales, and are only used as a small part of hedging means.

   Today, when Tiger Fund sold Thai baht on a large scale again, Billy King and his team bought a lot of Thai baht at a low level, and were preparing to sell when the BOT intervened. But while he was waiting for a suitable price, a large number of Thai baht selling orders emerged in the market, bringing the price of Thai baht back to its original position, and there is even the possibility of a further decline.

   "This is too bad. It seems that it has attracted the attention of other institutions, and our arbitrage can no longer be carried out in the short term." Seeing this situation, Billy King showed a regretful expression on his face.

  There may be a large number of arbitrage opportunities in the market, but such opportunities are fleeting. If you fail to grasp them, you will miss such opportunities in vain.

  But Billy King was not discouraged at all, because his team was only a part of the whole short-selling plan. When the Thai baht continued to fall, the Thai baht in his team's hands immediately became a bargaining chip for short-selling, just in line with the whole plan.

   "The current situation is more complicated, and we don't see arbitrage opportunities for the time being. Should we go all out to short?" Billy King asked quickly after calling Julian Robertson.

As a part of risk hedging, specifically hedging the risk from high offshore interest rates, this part of the position cannot be easily shaken, but now the market's impact on the Thai baht is obviously increasing, Billy Kim Other thoughts arose.

   "What's the specific situation?" Julian Robertson asked calmly.

  Although it is already late at night in the United States, the energetic Julian Robertson still has no rest and is still fighting in the office, discussing the current market with his analysts and strategists.

   "A large number of selling orders appeared at the price of 26, which lowered the quotation of the entire market by at least 3 basis points, and the positions we established before can no longer be sold." Billy King said without thinking. These data have been printed in his mind, and they come out of his mouth.

  At this time, wasting one more second may mean hundreds of thousands of dollars in losses, so traders all have shorthand skills.

   Julian Robertson here was silent, and then there was a loud discussion from the microphone. Obviously, the team here is also paying attention to the fluctuations in the market. Half a day later, Julian's voice came back from the microphone: "Don't operate for the time being, wait for the next instruction, I'll check the situation first."

   Billy King hung up the phone. Although he didn't quite understand what the boss meant by understanding the situation, he knew very well that Julian was a man of great powers and had deep friendship with many hedge fund managers. All he had to do now was to wait patiently. .

  …

   Soon, Julian Robertson got news from allies who were shorting the Thai baht together. Although they also sold part of their Thai baht positions today, the intensity and scale were far from the turmoil shown by the market. That said, there are other attackers in the market.

The foreign exchange trading departments of multinational commercial banks were immediately excluded by him. Most of the work done by these exchanges is the same as that done by Billy King's team, which is to conduct short-term arbitrage on the basis of hedging, like a dog Snatch that little pitiful profit. Hedge funds only regard this part of the profit as a hedging method, and absolutely do not mean to regard them as the main profit point.

  The organization that evacuated funds? Well, it is possible, but a new question arises, how did they know that the US hedge fund chose to attack on this day, and it happened to be at this time. If it is a coincidence, I am afraid that even Julian Robertson himself would not believe it.

   There are not many possibilities left. The biggest suspicion is that there is another short-selling force in the market, and this force not only has strong funds, but also can properly grasp the "turning point" of the market. Of course, it was his wishful thinking that Tiger Fund's short selling again was a turning point in the market.

   The visitor is not good!

  Although everyone is shorting the Thai baht, the other party is obviously selling regardless of the cost. It is obvious that they are trying to grab market share and maximize profits when the Thai baht depreciates. This is tantamount to competing with them for profits.

  Thinking of this, Julian Robertson felt uncomfortable for a while, but then he felt a little relieved. After all, this market is too big, and it is impossible for him to prevent other funds from entering this market that is about to collapse.

   Just in his mind, there is still a question, how did this fund know that Thailand's foreign exchange reserves are running out, or is the BOT's statement purely bluffing fake news? It must be known that the Tiger Fund realized that the statement of the Thai side might be misleading only by chance, and after their analysis and investigation, they confirmed the authenticity of this guess.

  However, there is not much time left for them. Thinking of this, Julian Robertson shook his head, drove these thoughts out of his mind, and then issued an order: "Short the Thai baht with all your strength, regardless of the cost!"

  …

As for the Quantum Fund, Druckenmiller put down the phone and said to Soros who was thinking about it: "The guess is correct, it really is the Tiger Fund that launched the offensive, and they also know that there is a problem with the statement of the BOT. "

   "But the selling orders in the market are so turbulent, shouldn't they do it? As far as I know, their position is not that big!" Soros frowned and thought for a while, then pointed out the abnormal situation in the market.

"That's right!" Druckenmiller nodded, and after thinking for a while, he said: "He called to ask about this situation, I believe they didn't do it." Then he said: "Should we also do something? Now, if we join again, I believe that the baht will not last long, according to my estimation, the baht will completely collapse within three days at most.”

   When he said this, an extremely confident look flashed in Druckenmiller's eyes. He is right. If Quantum Fund starts selling Thai baht in the market again, traders in the entire foreign exchange market will immediately choose to follow suit. This is the status of the quack.

"Very good!" Soros replied immediately without hesitation for a second, "Also, let Jones publish that article in tomorrow's newspaper, and we will give Thailand three days to make a decision." , I believe it should be enough!"

  At this time, he still has not given up the idea of ​​letting Thailand take the lead in announcing the abolition of the fixed exchange rate system.

But the problem is that even Julian Robertson, Druckenmiller, and Soros himself can't completely control the entire market. After the news spread that they started a large-scale attack on the Thai baht, sellers in the entire foreign exchange market were mobilized Short sell Thai baht together. The baht is collapsing much faster than they thought, much faster.

   A large part of the credit is due to the actions of Tianyu Fund in the previous two trading days. Most of BOT's foreign exchange reserves have been consumed. Only a few people know how long the remaining can last. Not even Chung-shik himself knows.

  …

   Hong Kong.

  The activity of short-selling Thai baht lasted for a whole day. Tianyu Fund sold a total of 31 billion baht in the market, equivalent to about 1.2 billion U.S. dollars. Before the Singapore futures market was closed, the baht previously borrowed by Zhongshi was almost polished, and the remaining baht was already out of scale.

"Do you know how much we lost?" Ren Ruowei walked to Ma Jiarui, shook his head slightly, and said with some emotion, "I did a little calculation just now, even if it is calculated based on the Thai baht borrowed at the original exchange rate of 25.5 If so, we have lost at least 100 million U.S. dollars as of today, not including the interest to be paid during this period.”

Borrowing Thai baht requires paying interest, and the capital converted into U.S. dollars is only lying on the books, so the interest is also lost. Although the time is not too long, but due to the large scale of funds, the interest on the two sides is added. an astronomical figure.

  Ren Ruowei's loss of 100 million US dollars was entirely due to fluctuations in the exchange rate, and this part of the loss was the largest, so he was so emotional.

   "If the baht depreciates, then all our losses will be made up, and we will earn more." Ma Jiarui gave him a cold look, and replied blankly.

  Ren Ruowei was just expressing emotion at first, but who would have thought that Ma Jiarui's words would make him a little bit embarrassed, so he retorted with a stiff neck, "What if it doesn't depreciate?"

   Ma Jiarui suddenly showed disdain on his face, and said, "This is impossible!"

   Thanks for the monthly ticket from the venture capitalists who are waiting for the mooring! It is not easy to add a chapter, I hope everyone can understand the hard work of the author, a lot of support, thank you~

  (end of this chapter)