The Son of Finance of the Great Age

  Chapter 260 Pulling and mobilizing the whole body

  Although the liquidity of Thai baht has disappeared in the market before, at that time, BOT will always use itself to sell US dollars and buy Thai baht, making the market liquid again. But now, Thailand has no bargaining chip to buy Thai baht, and can't find any buyers to buy Thai baht in the market, so it can only be forced to announce the depreciation.

   "We're done!" When he heard the news of Thailand's devaluation, Jim's first reaction was that their positions had exploded. In addition, I am afraid that the broker will have to recover related losses from them.

  Collins also looked pale, holding his head in his hands, unable to believe the blood-red title on the Bloomberg terminal. After a long time, he said with difficulty: "Don't get confused, and count our losses."

"The problem is not our loss. Our current average price is 26.8, which is low enough. But Thailand announced the devaluation. Only God knows what it will be like tomorrow. For God's sake, we really It’s messed up.” Jim fell to the ground, looked up at the all-night lights in the distance, and spoke without any emotional fluctuations, as if he was a walking dead that had been drained of life, leaving only a soulless shell.

  After listening to Jim's analysis, Collins couldn't stand any longer. With a slap, he also sat down on the ground covered with oak floors, repeating: "Why did you suddenly announce that you are free floating?"

   At this time, not far away, on the floor of a high-rise building, a group of people in white shirts happened to be cheering and celebrating, and they didn't know why. This scene happened to be seen by Jim, and he pointed to those celebrating figures and said to Collins: "Look, those people are cheering, they should be doing the right thing, and those who are still working at this point must be investors in the European and American markets." Those who are celebrating at this point in time are naturally the ones who are shorting the baht.”

   Speaking of this, he sighed a long sigh, even though he felt infinite unwillingness in his heart at this time, he could only swallow it. Because this is a market where the weak prey on the strong. Back then, he also cooperated with various means to crash the Japanese stock market, and now the retribution has fallen on his own head.

   "Damn hedge funds!" Jim murmured, followed by a long silence.

   Collins understood what he meant, and there was absolutely nothing wrong in blaming the baht's collapse on hedge funds, at least he thought so. It's just that he also forgot that their fund is also a hedge fund in the traditional sense, except that others are aircraft carriers that can change market trends, while they are just a wooden boat that capsizes when waves hit.

   Now, no one else is to blame, it's just that they can't see the situation clearly, or they have forgotten the usual trading methods driven by greed, which has led to the situation where the entire army is almost wiped out.

  The two of them stared at the night scene of Hong Kong for a while, and then discussed their future plans after they fully accepted the fact that the Thai baht had devalued.

"According to current estimates, as long as the Thai baht depreciates by more than 20%, plus our leverage, all the funds of all funds will be lost. Even if they don't lose all, the losses will be heavy. How should we explain to investors?" Recovery The calm Collins carefully analyzed the current situation and said very bitterly.

"Choose to liquidate!" Jim is very experienced in this kind of situation. Before that, he has also panned for gold in Tokyo, Singapore and other places. Every time he goes to a place, he is always full of confidence and is ready to copy the next Tokyo model. It was a miracle, but each time he either made little money or suffered heavy losses. After a few times, the net worth he had accumulated with great difficulty had shrunk severely.

After several downtimes, Jim became more and more gambler. Take this time as an example, if he had taken corresponding hedging measures, even if the Thai baht suddenly declared free float, because of the corresponding short position, the final loss would not be large. It will be so tragic. It's just that he was so dazzled by the abnormal fluctuations that he couldn't even care about the most basic principles.

  Originally, an investment portfolio is not suitable for occupying too much capital of the entire fund, and 10% is already a relatively large proportion. But just a few hours before the devaluation of the Thai baht was announced, the market suddenly plummeted. In order to maintain the position and imagine that they could catch the rising rebound, Jim and Collins abruptly increased this ratio to 20%.

  If there is a 20% drop in the foreign exchange market tomorrow, plus their leverage, they will lose at least 40% of the entire managed funds. In other words, overnight, 1 dollar became 60 cents, or even less.

  When this happens, the first reaction of their clients is to redeem the funds. At that time, the entire asset management company will be forced to declare liquidation, which is no different from bankruptcy.

  The two discussed for a long time, and decided to make an appointment with a lawyer in the middle of the night, planning to find a time to discuss the matter of filing for bankruptcy.

  …

The celebration scene that Jim saw was exactly what happened inside Tianyu Fund. When the news of BOT announcing the free floating of the Thai baht flashed on the Bloomberg terminal, almost everyone’s first reaction was disbelief, but then the Bloomberg terminal flashed again. There were related reports, but this time the content was much more detailed, and the BOT notification was posted on the terminal in its original form. Only now did everyone believe that the Thai baht was really defeated.

Immediately, the researchers who had worked hard for several months cheered for joy. Although it was already early morning and the most exhausting time of staying up all night, this news was like a booster, giving these drowsy researchers infinite vitality. The endless vitality made them yell like crazy, what's more, they tore up some research reports and waved them all over the sky, turning the originally orderly trading hall into a queuing scene.

Hearing the hoarse shouts outside, Andrew showed a disapproving expression on his face, and was about to go out to restrain the behavior of this group of people. Seeing this, Zhong Shi waved his hands and said with a smile: "Let them release the pressure, this paragraph Time has worked hard for them.”

   Several people laughed when they heard this. They were also in a good mood at this time, but it was inconvenient to express it in front of Zhong Shi. After a few people chatted and laughed, Zhong Shi's face straightened, and he said seriously: "The depreciation of the Thai baht is just the beginning. If I didn't miscalculate, the currencies of Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and other regions will be attacked in the near future. , we must build up positions before US capital enters, and this short-selling is far from over."

   "What? It's not over yet?" Several people were taken aback, and then showed different expressions. Ma Jiarui was thoughtful, Andrew was eager to try, and Ren Ruowei looked confused.

Zhong Shi had a panoramic view of the faces of several people, and after they thought for a while, he explained: "Since 1992, once a currency crisis occurs, the scope of the impact will not be limited to one country. Countries in Southeast Asia There are many similarities in the economy. They all rely on the input of foreign capital, and then stimulate growth in the form of increased export income. This is why they maintain a fixed exchange rate. Now Thailand is the first to announce the depreciation. The direct reason is that Thailand Products will be cheaper than exports from other countries, and in this case, what will the governments of other countries think and how?"

   "Actively choose to depreciate?" Ren Ruowei blurted out, but then shook his head again, "Only in this way, the inflow of foreign funds will become a problem. It is really hard to say whether it is actively choosing to depreciate or stubbornly resisting."

Zhong Shi nodded approvingly, and said, "We have to look at it differently here. If we don't rely too much on foreign capital, we may choose to depreciate, otherwise it will be the opposite. But my point of view is that even those countries or regions choose Stick to the current exchange rate regime, and you may eventually be forced to abandon it.”

   "A large-scale currency crisis?" Andrew's expression changed. According to Zhong Shi's analysis, it seems that the only possibility for these countries is currency depreciation when they are facing external worries and internal difficulties, and powerful enemies are waiting around.

Zhong Shi touched his nose, spread his hands, made a gesture of helplessness, and said, "I'm afraid it's true! However, maybe some regions can successfully resist this currency crisis." Said After finishing, he took a deep look at Ma Jiarui. Ma Jiarui had discussed this issue with him, and Zhong Shi had promised him that he would not participate when international speculative capital attacked the Hong Kong dollar.

   But at this moment, Ma Jiarui's mind was in a mess, and he didn't notice Zhong Shi's eyes at all. He was thinking about whether Hong Kong could survive the currency crisis this time. According to his judgment, it is only a matter of time before international capital will focus on Hong Kong, and Hong Kong is known as the world's freest trading port. Even if international hot money attacks the Hong Kong dollar on a large scale, the Hong Kong government is inconvenient to intervene in the foreign exchange market.

  Among the foreign exchange reserves of various countries in the world, Japan ranks first with a scale of 200 billion U.S. dollars, and the second place is the Chinese government with about 130 billion U.S. dollars. Next is Hong Kong, which has nearly US$100 billion in foreign exchange reserves, making it the third largest region in the world. This scale of funds undoubtedly exceeds that of any hedge fund, and even exceeds the sum of assets managed by the top ten hedge funds. But can this really block the impact of international capital led by hedge funds? Ma Jiarui thought for a long time, but still had no idea.

"What are you thinking so much about?" Ma Jiarui shook his head, driving these unrealistic thoughts out of his head, and then raised his head just in time to meet Zhong Shi's gaze, which was piercing and clear, which made Ma Jiarui's heart Suddenly there was an inexplicable excitement.

   "Yes, if Tianyu Fund does not short Hong Kong dollars, then it will indirectly lose a force compared to the other party. This is barely good news!" Ma Jiarui said with mixed feelings in his heart, thinking wildly.

   Thanks to book friends who worked hard to sleep, Xianjia Sanri, Shangguan Zimei, and book fans 114477 for voting monthly tickets! Thanks for the tip that made me think! The monthly votes that everyone voted for yesterday are very good. The author would like to express his gratitude. The beginning of the month has a good start again. I hope everyone will continue to support it.

  (end of this chapter)