The Son of Finance of the Great Age

  Chapter 427 Continue to fight

   "The market seems to be different from what we imagined!"

   After shaking his head, Julian Robertson picked up a piece of steak and chewed casually, "George, I'm really worried. This time we invested too much in the position, which is not appropriate."

  Different from Soros, Julian Robertson and his Tiger Fund gained fame from the stock market, and then gradually turned to the macro market. Inside Tiger Fund, the fundamentals of stocks, technical aspects, policy research and other fields even exceed the professional investment bank research team, and their researchers are far better than most researchers on Wall Street.

   Here comes the problem. For the research on a single stock or a certain industry, Tiger Fund can be said to be the industry leader. Correspondingly, research on the international macroeconomic situation and economic trends is relatively weak. Of course, this weakness is compared to other professional macro hedge funds, and the gap is only a few centimeters away.

   In addition to the slight gap in research, Tiger Fund’s contacts and intelligence collection in Southeast Asia are also much inferior to other hedge funds. For example, Quantum Fund set up an office in the Far East a long time ago, and Rodney Jones, managing director of its global research department, is responsible for the Asian region and is based in Hong Kong. Tiger Fund, on the other hand, has an office in Japan, but does not pay any attention to Hong Kong, which is not far away.

   Now if you want to understand the dynamics of the Hong Kong market in detail, you must rely on local investment banks. Therefore, in the past few months, Tiger Fund has frequently invited prestigious investment bank economists in Hong Kong to provide air tickets from Hong Kong to New York, allowing them to travel halfway around the world to New York to explain Hong Kong's economy to researchers; Locally send its own researchers to conduct research in all areas that may have close ties with Hong Kong's economy, including the Mainland.

   But even so, Julian Robertson felt uneasy. The reason was not that he thought the research this time was insufficient, but that the bet made by Tiger Fund this time was really too big.

  5 billion US dollars, equivalent to more than 38 billion Hong Kong dollars, is facing an unfamiliar market. It may not be accurate to say that it is unfamiliar, because Tiger Fund has plundered here twice, but before that, it was only equivalent to one billion US dollars, which was only one-fifteenth of the total assets of Tiger Fund.

   But this time it was a third, which can be called a big gamble of taking out the family fortune. Therefore, even though he had Australia's top rib-eye steak in his mouth, Julian Robertson still had no appetite at all.

"Relax, my friend!" Soros chomped, the taste was not affected at all, "I understand what you think, but you should also be aware that the Hong Kong market is different from others, and the economic fundamentals Good. What we have to do is to take advantage of the current momentum and destroy investors’ confidence. According to previous experience, this time we can at least destroy their index by 30%, or even more.”

"My personal estimate is that after our shock this time, the Hong Kong stock market is very likely to drop below 6,000 points. Don't forget, after the last two blows, we have a lot of heavyweight stocks that were absorbed at low prices , as long as we sell out violently at a certain point in time, I’m afraid we won’t even be able to keep 5,000 points at that time. Do the math, the futures that we absorb now are about 8,000 points, and by then we will not earn about $20,000 for each futures .”

As he spoke, Soros actually snapped his fingers, "A piece of 20,000 US dollars, based on my current position, 150,000 contracts, is 3 billion US dollars. Of course, this does not include the profit from shorting stocks." .Also, those stocks can continue to be held. But if we can smash the Hong Kong dollar, our benefits will be far more than that.”

  Like Julian Robertson, Soros also invested up to 5 billion US dollars in several markets such as Hong Kong stocks, Hong Kong dollars, Hang Seng Index futures, and interest rate futures. Like the last few times, the Hong Kong dollar market is a feint, while the Hong Kong stock and futures markets are the main force.

In the expectation of Soros and others, if the Hong Kong stock market is sluggish for a long time, it will inevitably put huge pressure on the Hong Kong dollar fixed exchange rate system that the Hong Kong government is defending to the death. At that time, the Hong Kong government will have to face even greater challenges: Hedge funds hijacked funds from the Hong Kong stock and futures markets to attack the currency market more violently and frequently, and finally succeeded in defeating it.

  If the Hong Kong stock market collapses, coupled with the loss of the monetary system, then the entire Hong Kong will be reduced to a place beyond redemption.

  Soros spoke very seriously, and Julian Robertson listened carefully, not realizing any absurdity. This confidence comes from previous experience. In fact, they have fully considered various possibilities, such as the Hong Kong government's rescue of the market. However, under the analysis of Rodney Jones and others, both parties agreed that the Hong Kong government will not risk the name of destroying the free port to intervene in the market.

  And in the deduction, Soros and Julian Robertson discovered that even if the Hong Kong government intends to rescue the market, as long as they shift their attack targets and attack Hong Kong's currency market with all their strength, they are likely to realize their intentions in the end.

This time, international hedge funds, including Quantum Fund and Tiger Fund, have assembled a total of about 30 billion U.S. dollars. Of course, these are only preliminary numbers. After the momentum is built, more and more funds will join Come in.

   "I finally feel relieved!"

Julian Robertson shook his head, and after trying to expel the uneasiness in his heart, he finally got some appetite, "By the way, George, what do you think of Russia's national debt? It is said that they are not very stable now, and there are already them. There are rumors that you can't make ends meet!"

"I'm not very clear about this!" Soros took a sip of red wine and wiped his mouth with a tablecloth. "This is the top secret of the Kremlin. I don't know what these polar bears are thinking. I have asked my advisory group After studying this issue, they are all retired politicians, and their thinking and angles of thinking about issues are quite different from ours."

"Anyway, the yield on Russia's national debt is too high, which is not a good thing." Julian Robertson said vaguely with his mouth full of beef, "But as a big country that can compete with the United States, if This point of credit is lost, and future financing may become a problem. What should we do next, I'm talking about Hong Kong."

"Continue to attack, we must cause panic in the market and cause a herd effect." Soros put down his knife and fork, raised his wrist and looked at his watch, "Sorry, Julian, I have an appointment, so I won't accompany you, take your time." Enjoy your food slowly."

   After finishing speaking, Soros nodded slightly, removed the tablecloth from his neck, and walked away calmly.

"God, this **** guy, isn't he going on a date with some Miss Universe again?" Julian Robertson watched all this speechlessly, and waited until Soros' figure completely disappeared in the restaurant, then angrily swung his fork He suddenly forked into the remaining half of the steak, and said in a muffled voice, "The guy who can't control his lower body."

It turns out that Soros is old-hearted, and he often dates beauty pageants by virtue of his name, and the young and beautiful girls do not reject this old guy with huge wealth. In the past few years, Soros has frequently changed his female partner like a revolving lantern, and everyone in the circle knows this.

Of course, for those beauty pageant ladies with **** and no brains, most of them are just temporary playmates of Soros, and they will be kicked away when they get bored, and what they get is only hundreds of thousands to multi-million dollar breakup fees. And even a woman who can successfully lock Soros' heart will be forced to sign a prenuptial property agreement before marrying Soros.

  …

  “The situation is acceptable, but various news have begun to spread like wildfire. Among them, the most lethal one is the rumor that the central government is considering devaluing the renminbi.”

  On the morning of August 6, before the market opened, Ma Jiarui, Ren Ruowei and others were reporting all the information on the market from the end of yesterday's trading to the current market in Zhongshi's office of Tianyu Fund.

"In addition to these, there is another piece of news!" Ren Ruowei took over Ma Jiarui's words and continued, "The Hong Kong government may raise the lending rate today and tighten monetary policy to deal with the impact from international speculators. It is said that yesterday In the evening, they sold tens of billions of Hong Kong dollars in the market, and both the spot and futures markets were attacked to varying degrees. In the previous attacks, such a continuous high-intensity impact has never happened.”

"In addition, there is another rumor that may have an impact on today's market. Some people say that HSBC Holdings illegally lends money and prints Hong Kong dollar banknotes privately without going through the procedures of the HKMA. No matter what the real situation is, I am afraid that today HSBC Holdings The stock price will plummet!"

  Hong Kong's note-issuing system is that the three major note-issuing banks directly print banknotes, and then hand over the corresponding US dollars to the Monetary Authority through a fixed exchange rate system, and then these Hong Kong dollars can be issued. And if this procedure is bypassed, the note-issuing bank can issue Hong Kong dollars without restraint, and the final result can only be disastrous.

  Of course, the veracity of this rumor is questionable, but when it is released at this time, it will undoubtedly have a severe impact on Hong Kong stocks.

   "Let's take a look at today's market first!"

  After collecting all kinds of news, Zhong Shi didn't say much, just sighed slightly, and said lightly.

   Soon, the Hong Kong stock market opened. Compared with yesterday’s closing price, it opened at 7476 points, a slight increase. Then a small amount of funds entered the market to buy heavyweight stocks, pushing the market index to 7522 points. But soon, the strength of selling orders overwhelmed buying orders, and Hong Kong stocks began to decline, but the range was not very large. Many stock critics were advocating "buying bottoms" during the session, but the inflow of funds was still very cautious, and the selling side did not want to make more entanglements. It fell 212 points, or 2.84%, to 7,254 points throughout the day.

   "What the **** do they mean?"

  After the market closed, several people gathered in Zhong Shi's office again, chatting about today's market. Ma Jiarui first asked, "Although there was an increase in the first two trading days, the range was not very large. With the frequent spread of various external news and the depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate, it should be said that this is a great opportunity for them to short." Opportunity, why did the expected violent attack not appear?"

"Maybe they think this has reached their strategic goal? Shipment while slowing down the decline?" Ren Ruowei also frowned and asked, "However, in terms of Hong Kong stock futures, the latest closing number is 7200, which shows that Hong Kong stocks are expected to fall further , it seems that they have no intention of stopping, could it be that they are not satisfied with the current figures?"

According to the analysis of Tianyu Fund, international speculators should have initially completed building positions in July. At that time, the Hong Kong stock index was around 8,500, and then the Hong Kong stock market began to fall continuously. So far, it has been around 7,200. It was enough to keep them satisfied.

   After all, there should be a limit to the decline of the Hang Seng Index! Both Ma Jiarui and Ren Ruowei agreed that this number should be around 7000 points, which is the so-called lowest point!

  (end of this chapter)