The Son of Finance of the Great Age

  Chapter 432 Rumors are flying everywhere

  On the evening of the 10th, as soon as the European and American trading sessions opened, in the London and New York markets, the trend of selling Hong Kong dollars was set off again. Led by Quantum Fund and Tiger Fund, speculators once again pushed the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar closer to 7.75, but the Hong Kong Monetary Authority quickly launched a counterattack. 1 US dollar was exchanged for 7.7435, but the speculators once again stubbornly pushed the Hong Kong dollar back to the level of 7.7480, where the two sides shook hands and made peace.

  Originally, due to the two rest days, the cost of speculators’ positions has increased, so the Hong Kong dollar opened at 7.7485, which is not a small increase compared to the previous trading day. The Monetary Authority also intends to take this opportunity to attack the speculators, but the stubborn speculators did not restrain themselves. Instead, they showed a posture of perseverance, which completely defeated the wishful thinking of the Monetary Authority.

  On this day, speculators threw out a total of about 45 billion Hong Kong dollars, and the trading volume was refreshed again. From the beginning of August to the present, speculators have sold hundreds of billions of Hong Kong dollars from the market, consuming close to 20 billion US dollar reserves of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. But both offensive and defensive sides are very clear that if they want to overthrow the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate system, this is only the beginning. So far, the speculators have only consumed up to 25% of the foreign exchange reserves of the Hong Kong government, and the remaining half is still lying firmly in the account of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.

  Although the currency market is still as stable as Mount Tai, the reaction of the capital market is completely different. As soon as the market opened on the 11th, the lending rate soared by 5%, and the annual rate reached an astonishing 15%.

The bank balance released by the Monetary Authority shows that in the past day, the liquidity of the entire Hong Kong financial system has decreased by 72 billion Hong Kong dollars. Although the Monetary Authority also promised to inject funds to increase liquidity, the entire market is still shrouded in pessimism. among.

  Bad air strikes, the stock market is under pressure.

  Although yesterday's market can only be regarded as a minor disturbance, in the face of two days of bad news today, the Hang Seng Index dropped 9 points at the opening, and then the stock market fell all the way, and it fell below 7000 points very quickly. After breaking through the integer point, the index still couldn't stop the downward momentum, and continued to explore crazily, and then fell below 6900 points and 6800 points, and finally encountered a strong sniper attack at 6750 points, although it fell to 6725 points in the intraday, But under the tenacious sniping of the bulls, it finally managed to give up a little bit, closing at 6779 points.

   "The whole day fell by 254 points, a drop of 3.62%." Ma Jiarui reported a bunch of figures dully, and said worriedly, "This will not work, we will all die in it."

"Yes!" Ren Ruowei quickly echoed, "We have no way to fight against international speculators. Their funds are too strong. If there is a slight disturbance in the outside world, plus they stir up trouble in the stock market, we will be in a deep quagmire. gone."

After finishing speaking, he was still a little unsatisfied, broke his fingers, and said: "Do you know how many rumors there are today? Among other things, there are several rumors about the heavyweight HSBC, and some say that their bad capital seriously exceeds the warning. On the other hand, some say that their core capital margin has not reached the minimum required by the Basel Accords, and there are even rumors that HSBC in North America suffered a major loss in investment, which may affect three percentage points of profit in the third quarter financial statement. Each rumor is With nose and eyes, it is simply difficult for people to distinguish between true and false."

"There are also various news in the real estate industry. Leaving aside the impact of the increase in interest rates on their financing, there is a rumor today that the Hong Kong government will reduce government spending and focus on infrastructure construction. Among them, the second phase of the IFC project It may be delayed indefinitely. As soon as the news came out, the stocks of MTR and Sun Hung Kai immediately fell by more than 5 percentage points, directly dragging down the entire real estate sector!"

   Ma Jiarui also added in a timely manner. Among all Hong Kong stocks today, the real estate sector he is in charge of fell the most severely, falling by more than 6%.

   "It's so much more than that!"

Zhong Shi sighed, and said worriedly: "These can still be clarified. As long as the parties or the company make an announcement, the stock price will rise. The biggest question now is whether the RMB will depreciate? If it depreciates, the rate will increase." What is it like? This is the most important factor dragging down the entire Hong Kong stock market.”

  The current general opinion in the market is that it is difficult to guarantee the current value of the RMB under the premise that currencies in the entire Southeast Asian region are depreciating. Because the pressure from international trade will make the goods from China uncompetitive, and China, which is driven by foreign trade exports to economic growth, urgently needs to increase its export quota, so it is difficult to guarantee the continued stability of the RMB.

  Economists from investment banks have even suggested that the RMB should be devalued by 5% to 15%, which would be a reasonable price. In related research reports, the investment bank gave China's economic growth in the first two quarters, and the obvious slowdown has strongly shocked every investor's attention. In the report, these economists who speculated on the depreciation of the renminbi wrote:

"...If you want to maintain the current economic growth rate, China's import and export surplus will further increase. And this trade surplus is just one of the important pressures on the appreciation of the renminbi. But at present, China has not opened up the capital market, The regulations of the monetary system are also rigid and stubborn, but this is precisely the wisdom of the country's leaders. Using high-return investment to neutralize the surplus generated by international trade can alleviate the problems caused by currency appreciation to some extent. pressure…"

  “…If you choose to depreciate at this time, it can stimulate the development of the foreign trade industry, enhance its competitiveness, and continue to stimulate economic growth. Second, it can effectively prevent the outflow of funds and ensure the confidence of foreign investors…”

  Although shortly after taking office in March, the Zhugeguan government declared that the economic growth rate will reach 8%, inflation will be less than 3%, and the RMB will not depreciate. However, judging from the statistics of the previous two quarters, it is obviously difficult to achieve this goal, so the call for RMB depreciation is once again raging.

  Of course, apart from those calling for the devaluation of the renminbi, there is another voice that the renminbi will not depreciate. This voice is headed by Andy Xie, the new chief economist of Stanley Hong Kong.

   Andy Xie graduated from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the United States. He first worked at the International Monetary Fund, and then moved to McQuarry Bank in Singapore. He was hired by Stanley Hong Kong as the chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region last year.

  Different from the chief economists of most foreign investment banks, Xie Andi is a very upright and outspoken person who is not controlled by foreign capital at all. Therefore, the financial circles in Hong Kong and even China attach great importance to his opinions.

  In an economic situation report released in July, Andy Xie bluntly stated that the Huaxia government should not consider currency devaluation at this time. In the article, he pointedly pointed out that the so-called proposed currency devaluation is essentially a conspiracy. Because once the depreciation is announced, there will be a chain reaction immediately, not only the capital originally invested in the mainland of China will accelerate the flight, even the currencies of Southeast Asian countries will continue to depreciate.

   Once caught in this vicious circle, the final result is that everyone competes to depreciate, and the prices of exported products will only get lower and lower. And once importing countries launch a trade war, the consequences will be disastrous. At that time, not only will it not stimulate economic growth, but it will also cause a major impact on the export industry. Bankruptcy, unemployment, deflation and other problems will follow one after another.

   Not to mention the impact on the overall situation, the Hong Kong market alone will have a huge impact on whether the RMB depreciates in the end. This kind of impact is not only aimed at companies listed in Hong Kong, but also affects the Hong Kong dollar and even the entire Hong Kong economy. According to Andy Xie's point of view, it is exactly "under the collapse of the nest, there will be no eggs."

  This is also one of the important reasons why the Hong Kong stock market has been sluggish in the past few months.

After quickly going through these viewpoints in his head, Zhong Shi let out a long sigh and said: "Now there is another viewpoint in the market, that is, 'Hong Kong dollar dollarization', canceling the issuance of Hong Kong dollars, and replacing all the currency in circulation with U.S. dollars , because if this is the case, there will be no reason for international speculators to attack Hong Kong. Hey, it really makes people speechless!"

"Hong Kong dollar dollarization?" Ma Jiarui chuckled and said disdainfully, "Giving the power of currency issuance to others? No! Seigniorage falls into the hands of others, and no sovereign country in the world would do that!"

"You're right!" Zhong Shi nodded approvingly, and then explained, "I'm just making an analogy. There are different opinions on the news in the market, and it's hard to tell whether it's true or not, but they all affect investors' decision-making to a certain extent. So, this point can also be used by us, and we can also release news, news that is beneficial to us!"

"Us?" The expressions of Ma Jiarui and Ren Ruowei were astonished. After a while, Ma Jiarui showed a thoughtful expression on his face, while Ren Ruowei pointed at the TV on the wall and said sarcastically, " Is it just relying on him? This is too childish!"

  The TV on the wall is playing a financial program. Andrew is sitting there in a suit and leather shoes, accepting an interview from the host, and seems to be explaining today's stock market in a clear and logical manner.

  Although Andrew is well-known in the financial circle, this fame is limited to a certain circle. Compared with the overall situation, the role he can play is extremely limited.

  After all, today is different from the past, and many people have no idea if they want to sing against the international speculators. Although in the past two days, Andrew trumpeted on TV programs that the Hong Kong stock market had bottomed out, but the consecutive two-day decline has seriously damaged his credibility. So wanting to use him to distribute news and affect the overall situation, in Ren Ruowei's view, is a bit of a dream.

   Ma Jiarui didn't speak. He looked at Andrew on TV, and then at Zhong Shi with a confident face. Suddenly, he seemed to realize something. His eyes kept changing between the two scenes, and he didn't know what he was thinking.

"Not bad!" Looking at Ren Ruowei who couldn't believe it, Zhong Shi smiled disapprovingly and said, "The Hong Kong stock market has fallen so sharply today, and there should be a slight rebound tomorrow. But the news I've been waiting for hasn't come yet. Before, I will not tell you my specific plan. You just wait and see, and I will definitely surprise you when the time comes!"

"I hope so!" Ren Ruowei muttered dissatisfiedly, and then reminded, "Today we have spent another 500 million yuan. Although we have only used a small part of the funds so far, if we follow the If this momentum continues, it is possible for the Hong Kong stock market to fall to 5,000 points, so you must be mentally prepared.”

  Since most of the funds in the Tianyu Fund belong to Zhong Shi, even if Ren Ruowei wants to object, he can only hint at Zhong Shi by insinuating.

   "In addition, if the Hong Kong dollar is really unable to hold, it will not only be you, but even us will suffer!" After thinking for a while, Ren Ruowei added.

  Zhong Shi didn't speak, but frowned and looked at Ren Ruowei, and suddenly a thought couldn't stop popping up in his mind, "This guy is very pitiful!"

   Thank you book friend Gambling Ghost is not me, handsome guy 007 for voting monthly! Recently, I have started to be very busy again. No matter what, I still have to keep writing the book, and try my best to keep writing ~ Thank you for your continuous support ~ Although the future is very difficult, I believe that as long as you persevere patiently, all unsatisfactory things will eventually pass …

  (end of this chapter)