The Son of Finance of the Great Age

  Chapter 461 The undercurrent is raging

   Zhong Shi and Druckenmiller closed the door, and outsiders simply had no way of knowing what they talked about behind closed doors. However, some good people in the Tianyu Fund paid special attention to Druckenmiller's expression. This well-known fund boss had an arrogant face when he came to visit, and his eyes were so high that he couldn't see anyone; When he left, he was smiling all over his face, he couldn't stop shaking hands with Zhong Shi, and he smiled so wide that anyone could see that he was in a very good mood, without the slightest arrogance from before he came here.

On August 28th, although international speculators frantically sold nearly 80 billion Hong Kong dollars of stocks in the market, Tianyu Fund was steady and steady. The index was firmly fixed at 7829.74 points, only a slight drop of 93.23 points from the previous day, a drop of only 1.18%.

   Judging from the day’s rise and fall, K-line chart and other indicators, today is undoubtedly a dull trading day. But as long as you pay attention to the trading volume, the largest number of pending orders in the market and other data, investors will be surprised to find that this day's transaction can be regarded as the largest single purchase and sale in the history of Hong Kong stocks, and the largest daily turnover. , is by no means as calm as the disk shows.

  In any case, today's past means that the August futures contract has officially come to an end, because these futures contracts will be settled in cash after today. Since the Hang Seng Index did not experience a large drop, the Hong Kong stock market was temporarily saved, while international speculators completely planted hundreds of thousands of short-selling positions on the Hang Seng Index in August. Some people have made preliminary statistics. If the settlement is based on the index at the closing price today, the vast majority of these international speculators will pay at least 50,000 Hong Kong dollars in cash for each sell order on hand, while a few people may be even more. many. For the entire short side, because they were forced into positions by bulls in August, a full 200,000 lots of sell orders were not sold out. In the end, these positions will have to pay a price of more than 10 billion Hong Kong dollars.

   In addition to being hit hard in the futures index market, speculators were also hit head-on in the Hong Kong dollar market. Of course, their opponent here is indeed the Hong Kong government. Because there is a correlation between the two markets, and their failure in the stock index market also made all their efforts in the Hong Kong dollar market come to naught.

  For speculators, they played too much this time. In the past half a month, they have dumped more than 200 billion Hong Kong dollars in cash in the Hong Kong dollar market, hoping to hit Hong Kong in an all-round way in this way. The short-term interest paid to them has accumulated into an astronomical figure, and these are just interest.

There are also losses on interest rate futures, losses on bonds, and so on. After a few estimates, some analysts believe that this action has cost international speculators at least 5 billion US dollars, and the long-term may expand to $8 billion. Among them, Quantum Fund and Tiger Fund, the leaders, estimate that the combined losses of the two are at least around US$1 billion.

  Although no one knows the real number, the market is still excited to hear the news. However, in the eyes of professionals, they do not take this news seriously. For the Quantum Fund, which has a fund management scale of up to 20 billion US dollars, a mere loss of 500 million US dollars will not shake its foundation at all.

   But for other people, it means a lot. In the past half a year, Soros and his Quantum Fund have been like the ever-victorious generals. They have been rampant in the money market in East Asia. It will be forced to announce the devaluation of the ruble. But now, Hong Kong has become the first and only place where he has failed. Of course, Indonesia is not counted, because before Soros entered the market, the Indonesian government had already announced the depreciation of the Indonesian rupiah.

   Compared with speculators, Hong Kong, the main battlefield, has suffered heavy losses. Since international speculators attacked the Hong Kong market for the first time in September 1997, the Hang Seng Index fell to a minimum of around 6600 points this time, and the entire Hang Seng Index was cut off by two-thirds. Such a tragedy cannot be described by cutting in half. Although there are factors that the bubble has been punctured, it is more due to the lack of investor confidence in Hong Kong and the Hong Kong dollar.

  Indices represent wealth to a certain extent, and the loss of wealth has caused many problems. Many listed companies have difficulty in financing due to falling stock prices, and have to lay off employees or cut salaries. What's more serious is that some companies' stocks have entered the ranks of penny stocks (junk stocks), and some have directly declared bankruptcy.

   There is also a kind of company that is rich and powerful, such as HSBC Holdings, which cannot go bankrupt easily, but it also suffered huge losses in this turmoil. In order to maintain their own stock prices, many similar companies have announced stock repurchase plans. However, although the cash has been invested, the stock prices of their own companies have not improved at all, and even fell more severely. Even if many companies finally completed the repurchase, they did not look forward to the moment when the stock price would rise.

  For ordinary wage earners, it is considered good to be able to keep their jobs in this year. Naturally, it is impossible to have unrealistic ideas such as extravagant salary increases and promotions.

   Accompanied by the stock market crash, is the real estate market collapse. Of course, it may be alarmist to say that it collapsed, but the real estate industry, which is a pillar industry in Hong Kong, has performed particularly badly in this wave of market prices. Since the beginning of the year, since Changhe Industrial announced that its real estate prices have been cut by half, Hong Kong's big real estate developers have flocked He began to lower the prices of its real estate properties, on the one hand, to clear the stock and withdraw funds, and on the other hand, it is not to resist the pressure from the stock market.

Due to the high housing prices, Hong Kong people generally use mortgage loans to purchase properties, and the housing prices suddenly plummeted by half or more, which greatly reduced the value of the properties they had in hand, and even the new properties were even cheaper than the original ones. In this case, there are many people who stop the loan supply and let the bank take back the house, and this way of giving up the loan supply has in turn accelerated the decline of Hong Kong's real estate industry.

  With the decline of the real estate industry, related industries will naturally be affected, which will soon affect all aspects of the entire society. Therefore, although the Secretary for Administration of Hong Kong set the growth rate of Hong Kong's economy at around 4.5% at the beginning of the year, it was soon forced to adjust it and dropped it to 2.1%. Now, the next adjustment may be expected.

  Although the neon lights are flashing outside the window and the lights of thousands of houses are shining, behind these dazzling lights is the economic downturn and people's growing anxiety. Of course, these are things that the Hong Kong government needs to solve urgently.

   "Will they come again?"

Although the speculators came back disheartened this time, the professionals are very clear that the crisis is far from resolved. As long as the "bug" in the linkage between the Hong Kong stock market and the Hong Kong dollar market is still there, these greedy capitals will covet it, maybe one day At some point it will come back.

Seeing Zhong Shi staring out of the window blankly, Ma Jiarui sighed in his heart, the young man in front of him had reached an unprecedented level, but at this moment he didn't seem so proud, but in the brow between his eyes , there is still a faint melancholy that never dissipates, what is he thinking?

  In all fairness, even his most die-hard supporters were shocked after Zhong Shi proposed to replace the Hong Kong government in bailing out the market. Although Zhong Shi photographed the plan as a dictator on the surface, Ma Jiarui also did a lot of work in private, which made many people change their minds. Although he was very puzzled, Ma Jiarui still stood firmly on Zhongshi's side, and at the moment of the final victory, he couldn't believe that Tianyu Fund and himself really defeated the international speculators.

  After the ecstasy, all that remains is deep worry, so Ma Jiarui asked Zhong Shi, who was also frowning.

For international speculators, especially big players at the level of Quantum Fund, the loss of hundreds of millions of dollars is simply dispensable. The benefits gained in the first attack on Hong Kong are more than enough to make up for the loss this time.

   And if they really make a comeback, can Tianyu Fund play the role of savior again?

  The answer is obviously, this is impossible!

   "Don't worry, they won't come again!"

Although Zhong Shi's words were inexplicable and did not give convincing reasons, it was just a simple conclusion, but it was enough to cheer Ma Jiarui, "I set a trap for them this time, and I believe they will do it in the short term. The insiders will focus on internal fighting, and have no time to care about the changes in Hong Kong's market."

"These are still minor details. Soon there will be a wave of greater changes in the international financial market. This time, not only our Hong Kong government, but also other governments will also get involved. Behaviors have long been tolerated to the critical point, and they will definitely be taught a harsh lesson."

If Ma Jiarui's spirit was lifted by what he said just now, Ma Jiarui was greatly shocked by what he said now, because according to common sense, these things cannot be touched by Zhong Shi, even the high-level officials of the Hong Kong government. It was impossible to capture such a dynamic.

"How much money do we have in our account now?" Just as Ma Jiarui was still thinking wildly, Zhong Shi turned his head and ordered with an unusually serious face, "No matter how much money we have, immediately buy me the September yen call option And futures, buy as much as you can, I estimate that the Japanese government will make big moves in the near future, so we must act first.”

  Due to the effect of leverage, derivatives are increasingly becoming the favorite of investors, and the trading volume of options is growing rapidly. Some people predict that in the near future, the trading volume of options in the market will exceed that of futures. Because for investors, the biggest loss of options is just the option premium, while the income is unlimited.

   "Yen? Bullish?"

   Ma Jiarui's heart trembled, and he was about to say something, but when he saw Zhong Shi's crystal clear eyes, he swallowed what he wanted to say involuntarily. During this period, the yen has fallen sharply. Because of regional economic factors, the yen has been significantly impacted, so many investors choose to short the yen. Although he is busy with the Hong Kong market during this period, he still maintains enough interest in the Japanese economy. Attention.

But at this time, Zhong Shi has already sublimated into a **** in everyone's mind. Even Ma Jiarui dare not dismiss his opinion lightly. Fortunately, the funds in Tianyu Fund's books are not much at present, and it is only 1 billion yuan. US dollars, so Ma Jiarui thought and thought, and finally gave up the idea of ​​persuasion.

   "What the **** did you tell him?"

   Walking to the door, Ma Jiarui suddenly stopped and scratched his head. Finally, he couldn't hold back the curiosity in his heart and asked Zhong Shi, "How could they fight each other? This is too unexpected!"

   "Actually, it's nothing, I just told him a fact!" Zhong Shi knew who "he" was, and after a slight smile, he waved his hand, indicating that Ma Jiarui could leave.

   Thanks to book friends 130810233301087 and cpower for voting monthly! I'm sorry I didn't write it until very late yesterday... I'm sorry everyone... The author will continue to work hard~ Thank you for your understanding and support!

  (end of this chapter)