The Son of Finance of the Great Age

  Chapter 473 Misfortunes never come singly (6)

On September 5, after Yu Hayami and the first-class officials went to work, the first thing they paid attention to was the trend of the yen in the foreign exchange market. At present, the exchange rate between the yen and the US dollar in the market has experienced the lowest level in three years since the exchange rate of 1 US dollar to 150 yen After that point, there was a rebound to a certain extent, and the current exchange rate hovered between 135 and 140 yen per dollar.

However, the market is not very optimistic about the prospects of the yen, and believes that there is still room for depreciation in this range. Therefore, whether it is hedge funds that have been eyeing the yen or hot money capital that did not operate much in the past, it is because of this period of time. In view of the astonishing decline of the yen, the foreign exchange market in Japan has become more concerned, especially as the regional economic situation has become clearer, the yen seems to be basically bound to fall.

Therefore, while international hot money including hedge funds bet on Russian government bonds and Hong Kong capital market, they also paid attention to Japan's foreign exchange market. Before August 28, each market contained unlimited profit possibilities, but the other two The market was completely shattered in just a few days. However, hedge funds have a lot of confidence in the yen. This is because, first of all, the Japanese government cannot rashly intervene in the market like the governments in the other two regions. In addition, they are also very aware of the plans of Japanese politicians. Their attempt to stimulate economic growth through currency depreciation has long been anticipated by hot money.

Therefore, during this period of time, the positions of international hot money betting on the yen are getting bigger and heavier, and because of the highly developed Japanese capital market, their leverage ratio is very high, and the value of the contract Also surprisingly high. Take Tiger Fund as an example. The total value of their short contracts betting on the Japanese Yen has reached 10 billion US dollars. Of course, these are only the underlying amounts of the contract. Because of the existence of leverage, Tiger Fund actually only needs hundreds of millions or a few dollars. One billion dollars of funds can hold such a huge position.

  The phenomenon of international hot money holding more and more positions is naturally monitored by BOJ, but this situation is what they want to see, and naturally they will not pay more attention to it. Although the Japanese yen foreign exchange market is an extremely large market, the target amount has reached tens of billions of dollars. It took Tiger Fund a long time to build up these positions, so this time they played a bit big.

   "Has there been any significant changes in the positions in the market?"

Looking at the report delivered by the trader, Yu Hayami asked absent-mindedly, and at the same time thought to himself, if the Hong Kong side really put themselves together, then they may have sneaked into the yen market, so during this period of time There will definitely be major changes in positions, and these will naturally not be hidden from them.

   "Not much changes!"

  The trader who delivered the report was taken aback for a moment, and then replied in puzzlement. But at the next moment, he seemed to realize that such an answer might be inappropriate, and after quickly organizing his words in his mind, he replied cautiously: "President Hayami, there has not been too much in the market in the past two days. The big market has appeared, basically not much different from before. However, according to the feedback from my colleagues, in the OTC market, there have been many forward contracts recently, but the amount of the target is not very large. Biggest change."

"The amount is not very large, so how big is it?" Originally, when he heard that the transaction situation in the market had not changed much, Yu Hayami secretly breathed a sigh of relief, but when he heard that there was a transaction of a forward contract in the off-exchange market, he thought With a move, he subconsciously continued to ask questions.

"About 500 million to 1 billion yen forward contracts, the delivery date is this month. It's a bit funny to say that the person who did the hedging three months ago lost money and wanted to sell quickly, but this Who would dare to ask for a contract in the market now? The settlement price of 135 is almost the same as the exchange rate of Japanese yen in the market. However, it is said that it was bought by someone later, probably because of trade and export, so such a forward contract is urgently needed. "

   As he spoke, even the trader himself laughed. As a BOJ trader, although there may be a gap with top traders in terms of macro research and trading skills, but because of the different status and vision, when it comes to forward contracts involving 500 million US dollars, The trader was completely nonchalant.

   "Hmm!" Yu Hayami was noncommittal, just snorted softly, and didn't continue to say anything. It is true that he is a dignified central bank governor who cares about this kind of transaction of tens of billions of yen. his reaction.

   "How about the Hong Kong stock market?"

Seeing Yu Hayami's reaction, the trader froze for a moment, then walked away holding his nose. It seems that his flattering behavior did not work in front of the big boss. On the contrary, it made the big boss a little unhappy, so he had to Gone in disgrace. Not long after that, Haruhiko Kuroda came over, and before he could say anything, Yu Hayami asked first.

   "Hong Kong?" Haruhiko Kuroda was taken aback, then thought of something, and quickly ordered the traders on the side to open the page of the Hang Seng Index. Others may not be clear, but Haruhiko Kuroda is indeed very clear about what is going on. Due to the time difference, the Hong Kong stock market is at eleven or two o'clock. When the trading is in full swing, when he looks carefully, he finds that The change in the Hang Seng Index is not very large. After these two days of adjustments, the index is around 7500 points. Although it has increased by hundreds of points compared with the previous trading days, anyone can imagine why this is so. So he immediately replied, "Hayami-san, the volatility of the Hong Kong stock market is not very large, and the current range is only 1%, so there is no big problem."

  Hearing what he said, the trader who opened the Hang Seng Index page glanced at the two high-ranking people a little strangely, but said nothing tactfully.

   "Closely monitor their every move, don't be caught off guard!" Hayami Yu breathed a sigh of relief, but still didn't dare to relax. After ordering Kuroda Haruhiko, he returned to his office.

Due to the one-hour time difference between Tokyo and Hong Kong, there is still one hour of trading time in Hong Kong after the Tokyo stock market and foreign exchange market close, so any disturbances in Hong Kong may not be reflected in the Tokyo stock market and foreign exchange market in a timely manner. This is why Hayami asked Haruhiko Kuroda to closely monitor the movements of the Hong Kong capital market.

  Just waited until about six o'clock in the evening, but there was still no movement in Hong Kong. After a busy day, Yu Hayami finally let go of Oishi, leaving Haruhiko Kuroda to continue monitoring in the trading room, and then went out to drink with a group of freshmen.

   Going to drink and have fun after get off work is a major feature of Japanese salarymen. In Japan, women basically start to be housewives wholeheartedly after they get married, while men are the only source of income in the family and are treated as pure money-making machines, so Japanese men are under very heavy pressure. And men who don't make friends with their bosses after get off work are also looked down upon in the family. Therefore, Japanese men will get drunk before going home after get off work, even if they don't have a party with their bosses.

Although as an important government official and in a high position, this is not necessarily necessary, but after a day of mental exhaustion, Yu Hayami felt that it was necessary for him to have a drink and have a good time, so he invited a large group of people to drink together, and To have such an opportunity to have a drink with his boss, those who are not as good as him will naturally flock to him.

  A large group of people drove to a private club in Shinjuku District, Tokyo, and after calling in a few geisha to help out, these pretentious and serious people during the day began to yell and drink. After drinking, the Japanese took off their masks of seriousness during the day, and became dissolute one by one, becoming a completely different group of people. And the few geisha were also very aware of this situation, without the slightest surprise, they just played and played on their own.

   A group of people drank for more than an hour, and when everyone was overwhelmed and groggy, Yu Hayami was about to end the party here. At this time, the wooden door of the room was suddenly pulled open from the outside, and a person wearing leather shoes walked in with a thump.

  Because in ordinary Japanese traditional restaurants, the first thing to do when entering the door is to change into clogs. Wearing leather shoes or other shoes is not allowed. So when he heard the sound of "thump thump thump", Hayami Yu's complexion sank immediately, and he shouted unhappily: "Bageyalu, where is the **** from, why don't you hurry up and get out!"

In view of his status and status, Yu Hayami enjoys more advanced rooms and services than ordinary guests in this club, so when he heard his yelling, soon there were two people wearing kimonos with shaved heads. A waiter with the appearance of a samurai walked in, surrounded the visitor from left to right, and was about to take him out.

   "It's me, Hayami-san!" It was Kuroda Haruhiko who came. Because he was in a hurry, he didn't have time to take off his shoes. After entering the room, he realized that something was wrong. When he was about to find a place to change his shoes, Yu Hayami, who had turned into another person, started yelling. up.

"So it's you, Kuroda-san!" Hayami Yu shook his head, opened his eyes hard to look at Kuroda Haruhiko, and then waved his hand to let the two "samurai" go out, and put a bottle of sake in front of him There was a heavy meal on the table, and he yelled dissatisfiedly, "Kuroda-san, you are very wrong, come on, dry this bottle of wine first, and then come to drink with us, remember, you have to change your shoes!"

  Haruhiko Kuroda didn't know whether to laugh or cry, so he had to exit first and change his shoes before re-entering, holding Yu Hayami who was already crumbling, and whispering something in his ear.

"What's the situation? Isn't it just a multi-billion dollar yen transaction? What is it!" At this time, Yu Hayami was a little confused about the scene, and he didn't have the slightest awareness not to tell outsiders about Haruhiko Kuroda's whispering, and directly He yelled loudly, "Not to mention, even if the Hong Kong government comes in person, I can deal with them!"

   As soon as he finished speaking, the scene suddenly fell silent. Although it is common for the Japanese to get drunk, it is precisely because they drink too much alcohol that they are generally immune. After hearing Yu Hayamizu's words, these people immediately realized what was still noisy The scene also fell silent.

"What's the matter with you?" Sensing that the scene had quieted down, Hayami Yu was not used to it for a while, picked up the wine glass and poured a sip of wine into his mouth, then suddenly woke up, and his face suddenly changed, "You What do you say? A multi-billion-dollar buy-in scale?"

  Because the foreign exchange market in Japan has been closed now, but there is no foreign exchange market for the yen. There are yen transactions in foreign exchange markets all over the world, so buying yen at this time must be in other foreign exchange markets.

Although Japan's foreign exchange market has the largest foreign exchange trading volume of the yen and has sufficient pricing power, it is precisely because of the large trading volume that small-cap funds cannot easily promote the yen. On the contrary, overseas markets do Can be a good place to move the Yen.

Naturally, even if it can be promoted, the exchange rate difference between the yen in overseas markets and the Japanese yen in Japan will not be much different. After all, there are arbitrage opportunities, and arbitrage funds will enter, and these funds will soon be smoothed out. profits between these different markets.

  But all of this is not worth mentioning in the face of major positive and negative news.

  Yu Hayami quickly thought of a possibility, so his expression changed on the spot, he hurriedly put down the wine glass in his hand, asked someone to turn on the TV in the room, and quickly switched the channel to Hong Kong International Channel.

"The Hong Kong government held a press conference and announced that after half a month of struggle with international speculators, today it can be said that it has finally defeated the international speculators. It is currently a joint reception issued by the Financial Secretary and the Monetary Authority. We I will connect with the reporter in front and invite him to introduce the situation at the venue. At the same time, the government will introduce the details of this attack on international speculators and future plans..."

Although the English proficiency of the Japanese is generally poor, and because of the accent problem, speaking English is often a disaster compared to Indians, but as a staff member of the central bank, they are naturally familiar with English, so Yu Hayami and others are very familiar with it. He clearly and unmistakably understood what the female anchor on TV wanted to express.

  Hong Kong announced that it has won the battle with international speculators!

   "Just now, the purchase of yen just now..." Soon, a quick-witted trader noticed the connection between these two things, and immediately shouted out loudly.

   Thanks to the book friends who took the knife and broke the oil, and the hero Hu Wang who voted for the monthly ticket! Thanks also to Shuyoushu for the awesome red envelopes and niuyutu's review votes! PS: Sorry, there are too many things to do recently, I will make up later when I have time.

  (end of this chapter)