The Son of Finance of the Great Age

  Chapter 817 Rumors Resurrection

   Regarding Osborn's volunteering, it is rare that no one raises objections, even though he is suspected of being a thief shouting "stop the thief."

   Everyone here is not a fool, they obviously understand this truth, but they understand the intentions of the Germans better, use this proposal to let the British choose to stand aside, and completely draw a line with the Americans on this matter.

   Knowing this truth, Osborne couldn't wait to jump out and express his attitude.

   "If this is true, how do we deal with it?"

Portugal's finance minister glanced at Osborne worriedly, then turned to Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Suuble and asked, "Will they propose more favorable conditions than Greece as a negotiation?" Chips?"

  Wolfgang Suubler is almost seventy years old, and his face is full of vertical and horizontal grooves. But no one here dared to underestimate this old man in a wheelchair, because his legendary life and tough character made Germany play a very important role in the European Union.

   "There is no need to talk about it!"

Su Ible said strongly, "At least Germany will not agree. If they are not willing to be aided, then let them fend for themselves. Or they can also consider turning to the Americans. But if they want to get from us aid, they must follow the rules we set!"

   "Not only Ireland, if other countries offer rescue, our rescue conditions will be the same!"

  He took a deep look at the Portuguese Minister of Finance, and added, "Otherwise we will not be able to account to our taxpayers!"

  Portugal's finance minister's face darkened, and he didn't say anything more.

   What he meant by saying these words was naturally to tentatively ask whether Portugal, which is very likely to fall into a debt crisis, would follow this example if Ireland opened a hole because of this. But he was easily seen through the intention by Ible, and ended up being stumped.

  The EU and IMF's rescue has high additional conditions, such as further opening up the market, raising the tax rate for small and medium-sized enterprises, reducing fiscal expenditures and agricultural subsidies, etc. In this way, it will inevitably affect certain classes in the rescued country, which is one of the reasons why Ireland has been unable to apply for rescue until now.

  After hearing the tough statement of the German Minister of Finance, the finance ministers of other countries did not speak, but they did not take seriously the statement of Ible. In fact, they are very clear that in the end, when negotiating with the Irish government, they must make certain concessions to them. It's just that these concessions will not affect their ability to repay their debts in the future, because certain principles must still be followed.

Because there is one more thing to verify the authenticity of the conditions provided by the United States, the entire European Finance Ministers meeting was extended from two days to three days. They finally softened their attitude and sent representatives to negotiate with the Irish government again.

  …

   "The news has been confirmed, the British have officially withdrawn from our plan!"

  Two days later, the United States officially sent news that the British made it clear that they would withdraw from the Irish rescue plan led by the United States. Prior to this, certain British consortiums had unilaterally notified their American partners.

   "So, everything you said has come true!"

  Paulson said with lingering fear, "Fortunately, according to your previous reminder, I have already closed 60% of the position. Even if the yield of Irish government bonds falls to 7%, I will not lose money."

"Yes!"

   Griffin also said, "Not counting my unclosed positions, my fund has earned a rate of return of 3 points so far. I am very satisfied with such a profit in such a short period of time."

   "But what about the euro?"

  As long as Ireland does not officially announce its acceptance of aid for one day, they can buy the remaining national debt shares from the market at a higher price, so they are not worried about not being able to liquidate their positions. But the euro is a problem. In the past three days, the exchange rate of the euro against the dollar has risen every day, and it has risen to a high of 1.3676 dollars per euro.

According to the current price, it is difficult for Zhongshi Group to close the position, because if the price continues to rise, it will soon approach their opening price, and the other is because if they sell at this time, they will further push up the price of the euro. exchange rate because their positions are large.

  Among those present, Delio has the highest short position in the euro, reaching an astonishing $20 billion. This includes instruments such as spot, futures and options. For every 0.1% fluctuation in the exchange rate of the euro, his gain or loss reached as much as 20 million US dollars.

  A few days ago, they discussed this issue, but the clock stone was vague and did not give an answer. And now three sessions later, the euro is up 1.41%, making the whole thing immediately urgent.

   "Fortunately, tomorrow and the day after tomorrow are rest days, so we have a lot of time to operate!"

  Zhong Shi tapped on the table, and the sound of da da sound reached everyone's ears continuously. No one spoke, they all knew that Zhong Shi was plotting, and they didn't dare to disturb each other's thinking. A few minutes later, Zhong Shi stopped the meaningless beating and said slowly, "It seems that we have to suppress the rising momentum of the euro."

   "Gentlemen, how much money do you think Europe will spend to aid Ireland this time?"

He first asked, "Perhaps some funds are needed to save Ireland's banking industry, but the funds to stabilize Ireland's financial industry and inject liquidity into their economic system to stimulate recovery are two different concepts. The latter is definitely more important than the former Much more. I think at least for European finance ministers, the latter rescue model must be chosen, because it can be done once and for all.”

"what do you mean?"

  Dairio's eyes lit up instantly, "Mr. Zhong means that this number will not be too small, but if it is too large, it will have a bad impact on the market?"

   "It's natural!"

  Zhong Shi replied firmly, "If this number is too large and exceeds market expectations, then whether the EU can spend the same amount to save other countries in the future, that is, the subsequent ability will be greatly compromised."

  It must be said here that although the European rescue mechanism has gathered a total of 750 billion euros in funds. However, except for the 250 billion euros provided by the IMF, the remaining 500 billion euros cannot be achieved in one step. Even the funds of the IMF are provided in installments.

  Although the governments of various countries have promised to pay the money, the appropriation of the money still depends on the international situation. In other words, most of these funds are still sleeping in the treasury of the Ministry of Finance of various countries. They will only make disbursements when needed.

   In addition, after bailing out Greece's huge 150 billion euros, the total amount of the funds has dropped to below 600 billion euros. If the rescue of Ireland exceeds 100 billion euros, the total will quickly fall below 500 billion euros. And other countries such as Portugal, Spain and even Italy are still waiting to be fed, so whether the final 500 billion euros can really guarantee that the debt crisis will not spread in the European continent is still a question.

  The situation in Portugal is similar to the situation in Ireland, and if rescue is needed, the number may be similar to that in Ireland. But Spain is a very large economy, and if something goes wrong, the funds needed to rescue are far beyond what these two countries can compare. At that time, I am afraid that the entire European rescue mechanism will be dragged down by Spain.

   This is the crux of the problem.

"what do you mean?"

  Everyone understood at this moment, and Delio said in surprise, "In this way, even if Ireland is rescued in the end, the market still has doubts about the European rescue mechanism?"

"good!"

Zhong Shi replied firmly, "But what is certain is that there is still a lot of room for maneuver before Europe announces the amount of official aid to Ireland and Ireland accepts the rescue. And once the dust settles on the whole matter, That's when the euro officially reverses. I don't know how long it will take them, but this time is the best time for us to suppress the euro as much as possible!"

   "Tell me, what do we need to do?"

  After listening to Zhong Shi's analysis, the others realized that a new round of attacks was about to be launched, and they all geared up and expressed their opinions enthusiastically.

"so…"

  Zhong Shi lowered his voice, and began to give instructions carefully.

  …

   On the 20th, an article was published in the European edition of The Wall Street Journal, describing the current social situation in Ireland.

  The article starts with education in Ireland. The increase in tuition fees in the past six months has made many college students unable to pay tuition fees and forced to drop out. The second is the loss of population. In addition to the evacuation of the working population from Poland, 20% of Irish college students have chosen to go abroad to work, and their destination is concentrated in London. According to the data provided, in the next five years, there may be another 150,000 Irish young people who choose to go abroad for employment.

  At the same time, the article stated that not only these young people and the working class, but also the middle class in Ireland have also been severely impacted. Take the sports world as an example. In the first half of this year, more than 300 Irish football and hockey players have left Ireland to find their next job in the UK, Australia or the US.

  Because of the collapse of the construction industry, many families were troubled by housing loans, and because of the wave of layoffs, many originally middle-class families became unemployed overnight. In this case, they have to struggle.

  The article also mentioned a well-known figure, Sean Fitzpatrick, the former chairman of the board of directors of the Anglo-Irish Bank. He was originally a well-known big man, but now he has to declare bankruptcy.

The end of the last article reads: "In the most extreme terms, in the next 6 to 7 years, the income taxes paid by all the people of Ireland may be able to compensate for the loss of bad debts of the banks. This is the people of this country. The price paid for their government. Like the Titanic that crashed into an iceberg, although Ireland announced that it will cut 15 billion euros in spending in the next four years, this is only to stop the boiling water and cannot fundamentally solve the problem. According to estimates, the entire Ireland With the bad debts of the banking sector reaching 70 billion euros, cutting spending is only a futile and comforting act."

  This article intuitively exposed the current status of Irish folk to the whole world, and soon spread throughout the world. A description of the end of the day immediately added to the market's pessimism about Ireland.

  At the same time, an unverified piece of news began to circulate in the international market again. The content of the news is that even though the current domestic situation is so tense, the Irish government still does not intend to accept rescue. According to informed sources, the EU strongly demanded that the Irish government raise tax rates, but the Irish government rejected it without hesitation.

   It is well known that the use of low tax rates to attract overseas direct investment and the low tax rate reduction policy for small and medium-sized enterprises have made Ireland a bridgehead for global capital investment in Europe, thus creating the world-renowned "Irish model".

  But the policy of low tax rates has obviously affected the economies of other European countries, and they have criticized this before. Now it is understandable to take the opportunity to let Ireland adjust the tax rate. But for the Irish government, the loss of low tax rates will not only mean that it will be difficult for them to attract overseas investment, it may also lead to a large flight of existing funds.

  Although there is no way to verify the authenticity of the news, the news is very logical, so it is widely recognized by the market.

   Thanks to the book friends for reading blankly, and Shihuangtian for voting for the monthly ticket! Thanks to the book friends who passed by KLMY for their rewards! Not much else to say, I hope you don’t forget to vote for it, friends who don’t have a monthly pass must vote more recommended votes~ Thank you very much~

  (end of this chapter)