The Sun King's Evidence

Teresa's sudden whim caused all the knights in the tent to focus their attention on her. The sorceress held the violet staff and said seriously: "Is it possible that Chaos and the undead have reached a fragile alliance?"

"This possibility cannot be said to be impossible." Ryan first partially affirmed Teresa's opinion, which made the sorceress a little happy, but the Lake God Witch Morgiana immediately retorted: "I have no intention of targeting you. , Lady Theresa, but the undead are allied with Chaos? Does that make any sense?"

"What's the point?" Teresa took over naturally. She glanced at Ryan's expression calmly.

There was a little curiosity and interest on Ryan's face, which greatly encouraged Theresa. The sorceress ignored the displeased looks of more than a dozen Holy Grail knights and more than twenty noble knights in the tent, and took advantage of the situation directly. He continued: "Of course it is because of pressure. The huge pressure forces the undead and Chaos to unite."

After speaking, Teresa stretched out a hand wrapped in white lace gloves and clicked on the map: "You see, the Spire Palace has fallen before, and according to the news, the army of Northern Lawn has also surrounded Richard. De Castle, if I were the poisonous snake of Mousilon, then I would definitely realize at this time that the undead are in dire straits.”

"At this time, the undead have already suffered huge losses when attacking the Spire Palace, and also lost many Blood Knights and Black Holy Grail Knights. The last Horror Beast also died under Ryan's sword. So at this time, Musilon's The Viper also gave up on recapturing the Spire Palace and immediately went north to rescue Richard's Castle. He will face great pressure in terms of military strength. At this time, the Viper should be forced to seek allies, because if they cannot quickly defeat Lawn and his Chivalry army, then when our army gathers and attacks from both sides, Viper will definitely not be able to deal with it, and he will have no choice but to retreat to Mou Silon again." Teresa continued: "And if this is the case, we can be ready to besiege Mu Silon for a long time. Silon’s preparations, we are fully prepared this time.”

"Therefore, with no choice but to do so, Mathubad reached an agreement with Chaos and formed a coalition. The Chaos Demon Army destroyed the Spire Palace and relieved the pressure on Mousilon's south." This was Teresa's final summary, female After the warlock finished speaking, he looked at Ryan expectantly, waiting for his evaluation.

"Ha!" Who knew that before Ryan could speak, Morgiana sneered. The Lake God Witch's beautiful face was full of majesty and coldness. She said in a deep voice: "Ms. Theresa, yes, from logic Speaking up, there is no problem with your judgment, but I want to ask you, if this is indeed the case, what can Chaos gain? What reason do they have to help the undead? "

"For destruction and killing?" Teresa tried her best to remain elegant: "The undead must have reached an agreement with Chaos..."

"No, it's unlikely." Ryan interrupted Theresa, and he motioned to Morgiana to listen to him: "The purpose of the undead is to rule, whether it is Mahubard or the Lich King Arkhan, their The goal is to establish a kingdom of the dead, on this land given to us by the goddess, and for Chaos, all they want is..."

"...Destruction, complete destruction." Morgiana stared at Theresa: "What the undead want is conquest and dominance, while what Chaos wants is destruction. It is impossible for both parties to reach an agreement, unless it is an extreme situation, but the current situation For Mousilon's vipers, it is far from that level. There used to be dark elf pirates and northern barbarians who could form an alliance to fight against the empire and the Britannian coalition when they raided south, but the opponent was the Chaos Demonic Army."

The Chaos Demon Army is a subspace creature. Even with the full support of the evil god, the Chaos Demon Army cannot stay in the mortal world for a long time before the great guardian and the maelstrom fail.

"Well... the information we currently have is still too little." Ryan shook his head in distress. He signaled Morgiana and Teresa not to get entangled in this matter. The Earl himself said loudly: "We are temporarily in the Chalon Forest. Rest in the camp. I have written to Francois and Sir Berhemond to request support. When their army arrives, we will make another plan. Please keep in mind that the combat effectiveness of the Chaos Demonic Army is unmatched by any army in the world. You can compete, but don’t take the initiative just because you are hot-headed!”

Everyone knows how powerful the Chaos Demonic Army is. Without gathering a real army, it is impossible to defeat this Tzeentch Demonic Army led by Carlos, the Destiny Weaver, the most powerful demon under Tzeentch.

"Yes!" The meeting ended. Due to the unfavorable outcome of the war, the knights were also quite dejected. They slowly left the tent and went back to their tents to rest.

"Feedmund, Jerod, please stay for a moment." Ryan motioned to Fedmond and Jerod to stay.

Soon there were only five people left in the big tent. Ryan, Theresa, Morgiana, Fedmund, and Jerrod sat around the table and looked at the map.

It seemed to be raining lightly outside the tent. The night in early spring was very cold. Even though there was a fire pit in the tent, the cold wind was still blowing.

The five people in the tent are not afraid of the cold. After sitting down, Ryan first arranged for everyone to have dinner together. Today’s dinner is grilled steak and lamb chops, stewed broccoli and corn soup. The staple food is good butter bread, served with The wine is low-alcohol sweet sparkling cider.

Affected by the defeat, several people were a little silent. Morgiana and Teresa didn't eat much meat, but just ate some vegetables and thick soup to deal with it. Ryan, Fedmund, and Jerrod didn't care so much. , eating and drinking.

Historically, if the Cavaliers can eat, this is a sign of their ability to fight.

It wasn't until he was almost done eating that Ryan said, "Actually, I also agree with Theresa's point of view."

The sorceress's expression suddenly brightened up. She put down the spoon, her face a little excited and a little complaining: "Then why didn't you just..."

"Ms. Teresa." Jerod stretched out his hand to signal the sorceress to calm down. The paladin whispered: "Because it was not the right time. This defeat has damaged the morale of the army... If Ryan comes back at this time, The undead must have united with Chaos..."

"It will cause a huge blow to the morale of the army." Fedmund added, and the Holy Grail Knight also frowned: "Those of us who have participated in the Holy Grail expedition all know how powerful the Chaos Demon is, unless it is Perhemon. No one like Mr. De, Mr. Francois, or Mr. Ryan, the Holy Grail Knight of the Holy Realm, can deal with the Chaos Demon, not even ordinary Holy Grail Knights."

The sorceress had a sullen look on her face, and she lowered her head unwillingly.

"It's not your fault, Theresa." Ryan reached out and patted the sorceress's hand gently, indicating that she didn't mind: "You are my courtier, all you have to do is express your views, and I’m the one who has to consider all the implications.”

"I still question the alliance between the undead and Chaos." Morgiana shook her head, and the Lake God Witch said to Ryan: "Lian, why do you think Mathubad will form an alliance with Chaos?"

"The reason is very simple." Ryan nodded and smiled: "In short, this is called behavioral economics."

"Behavioral economics?" The Lake God Witch motioned for Ryan to continue.

"For example." Ryan nodded, and he took out ten gold crowns and placed them on the table.

"Suppose I am an imperial merchant and I want to transport a batch of grain to Kurona for sale."

"Now I have two choices. First, I can take the Axbite Pass in Montfort. Since I have a strong escort, I can almost guarantee safety by taking the Axbite Pass. However, due to the high tariff, I can't go This time I can only make a thousand gold crowns.”

"Alternatively, I can choose to take the Gray Lady's Road in Palavon. This road is quite dangerous. I only have a 50% chance of being able to pass it safely. But if I successfully pass it, I only need to pay a low tariff, so I can earn three thousand gold. crown or even four thousand gold crowns.”

"In this case, what would you choose?"

As soon as Ryan finished speaking, both Gerold and Fedmund said without hesitation: "Of course it is a safe and safe choice to choose to take the ax and bite the pass."

Teresa also agreed to take the axe-biting pass, but Morgiana said disdainfully: "If it were me, I would take the path of the Gray Lady. I don't believe any enemy can hurt me."

"Morgiana, you are willing to walk the Gray Lady Mountains because you have great strength." Ryan shook his head with a wry smile: "And for you to go with me, let alone two thousand gold crowns, it would be good if the merchants can earn five hundred gold crowns. "

"So what exactly do you want to say?" Morgiana's golden eyebrows wrinkled.

"Listen to me first." Ryan shook his head and continued: "Now let's assume that if we take the path of the gray lady, we encounter the greenskin tribe and half of the food is robbed. Now we face two more A choice.”

"First of all, we can choose to return immediately. Obviously half of the goods we lose will definitely not be able to come back, but at least half of the goods and people will survive."

"Alternatively, we can take people to pursue the greenskin tribe deep in the mountains. Assume that we have a 50% chance of recovering our goods, and a 50% chance that not only will we not be able to recover the goods, but we will also have to keep the remaining half of the goods. Even our lives are involved. In this case, what choice will you make?"

At this time, both Fedmund and Jerrod realized something. Fedmund pondered for a while, and then said to me: "I think I will still choose to chase the greenskin tribe."

"Me too." Both Gerald and Morgiana believed that the goods must be recovered. At this time, only the sorceress chose to give up: "My life is the most important, and I will not risk my life again."

"Very good." Ryan smiled. He collected the ten gold crowns and said with a smile, "This is called behavioral economics."

"There is a nature in mortal man which prevents him from being completely rational in dealing with gains and losses."

"When faced with returns, mortals are risk-averse, and they prefer guaranteed returns. Even if the returns are lower, mortals can accept them."

"When faced with losses, mortals always prefer to take risks. At this time, they will in turn hate the losses that have been determined, but hope to recover their losses by taking risks, even if they may suffer more as a result. If we think about the big losses, we will know that it is unlikely to actually pursue the green-skinned tribe and regain the goods, but many people will still choose this way."

"Because mortals are more sensitive to losses, more sensitive than gains." Ryan crossed his hands, pressed the back of his hands on his nose, and supported his elbows on the table: "When given a choice, most mortals place their hope on taking risks. Take risks to 'make money'."

"Of course, there will be a small number of people who choose to stop their losses. I'm talking about the majority of people here, not everyone."

Everyone was thoughtful after hearing this.

This problem is actually very similar to a problem that Ryan often faced in his previous life, that is, the choice of "100% to get one million, 50% to get five million, and 50% to get nothing", even everyone knows the second option. The expected return is greater than the first choice, and most people will still choose the first choice because they will get one million steadily.

But if you change it to "100% loss of one million and 50% loss of five million, 50% no loss", most people will choose the second one. They know that they expect to lose more by choosing the second one, but they still like it. Choose the second one, because what if the bet wins and there is no loss?

It should be emphasized here that Ryan here refers to most people but not everyone, except for those who are powerful and sensible enough.

"Are you saying that Mahhubard would choose to compromise with Chaos because he also wants to make a comeback, and the loss of the Spire Palace is a confirmed loss?" Morgiana reluctantly accepted Ryan's opinion, the Lake God Witch said He nodded in understanding: "Compromise to Chaos, or you can regain the Spire Palace, or the situation is worse, but he is willing to take risks."

"That's right." Ryan nodded: "Moreover, the benefits are not only to regain the Spire Palace, the Chaos Demon Army can resist our offensive, allowing Mahhubard to concentrate on dealing with Raun and his army, which means that regardless of the treacherous Whether the Qi Demon Army succeeds, at least they all help Mahhubard fight against us, which is a stable profit."

"So, to sum up, it is not surprising that the undead will compromise to Chaos in difficult situations." Ryan concluded: "So this problem is half solved. I am sure that the undead will compromise to Chaos."

After Ryan's analysis, the four remaining people in the tent were convinced. Jerod and Fedmund nodded in agreement. Even Morgiana, who had a firm attitude towards this, was shaken: "If according to Ryan, It is indeed possible that the undead have compromised."

"Then the question is, the undead can compromise with Chaos, why would Chaos be willing to help the undead?" Teresa was very happy to see that her point of view was recognized by Ryan. The sorceress ignored Morgiana's warning look. , and immediately continued: "First of all, we can be sure that Chaos is not here to destroy, so there is only one possibility left."

"The undead can bring greater benefits to Chaos than destroying this place."

"The Great Daemon of Tzeentch must have received some kind of promise."

After listening to Ryan's words, everyone fell into deep thought.

At this moment, several bats suddenly flew into the tent from outside the tent, and a vampire lord suddenly appeared at the door of the tent! He has a big bald head, deep-set eye sockets, and a pale face without a trace of blood: "It's looking for holy objects!"

"Who?" Everyone present immediately drew their weapons and pointed directly at the vampire lord.

Unexpectedly, the vampire lord sneered. He threw his weapon on the ground, then knelt down and raised his hands to express surrender: "Dear Lord Ryan Macado, I am the vampire baron, Hal Harry. Si, from the von Carstein family, I come here to surrender to you, hoping that you can forgive my sins!"

"The tree world is coming!!" Morgiana's beautiful green eyes were filled with hatred. The Lake God Witch raised her head to cast a spell, and the thick branches immediately tied the vampire baron tightly: "Undead! What conspiracy do you have? !”

Hal Harris allowed himself to be sealed. The vampire baron stared at Ryan with his dark eyes: "I said, I am here to surrender. For some forced reasons, I can only surrender to you, Ryan Macado." , I have no choice.”

"You know I never forgive vampires." Ryan stood up: "Why do you think I will accept your surrender?"

"Yes, I know." Hal Harris still knelt down: "But I have no choice."

After saying that, the vampire of the von Carstein family raised his head: "Because I discovered an amazing secret! The great blood ancestor Vlad von Carstein is here! Damn Mashuba Virtue, he gave up the glory of the Midnight Nobles and surrendered to Chaos!"

"He is no longer worthy of being our leader!"

"Only you can defeat him! Ryan Macado!"

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