Iron Sonata of World War II

After Helena introduced mathematical tools beyond the times such as "input-output method" and "simplex method" to provide a scientific basis for quantitative analysis of the "four-year plan" formulated by Germany in this plane, the following There was only one last major problem to be solved, and that was where to raise the huge amount of money needed to implement the "Four-Year Plan"?According to traditional economics, if the government wants to expand spending, it can only raise funds by increasing taxes or borrowing money from home and abroad, but Helena believes that the German government does not need to do this.

"Your Excellency, when the country becomes the issuer of legal currency, it is meaningless to pursue the so-called fiscal balance." Helena said to Mustache: "The government department and the central bank are like the left and right hands of the country controlling the economy. When the central bank holds the power to issue fiat currency, the material and government departments are still afraid to expand investment because they are afraid of being unable to repay their debts in the future. I think this embarrassment is logically absurd, and the reasons for this embarrassment It is the independence of the central bank. This independence seems to me a barbaric relic of the pioneering days of capitalism."

"Miss Helena wants to say that when the national financial department needs money, the central bank under the control of the state should directly print money for the financial department to spend, and the financial department will never need to consider repaying the money, right? ?” Hitler seemed to hesitate, and then asked Helena in a low voice: “Will this not cause inflation? After all, such currency is only produced by cheap printing, and there is no gold, foreign exchange or national debt behind it.” Come and endorse it.” Mustache’s concern about inflation is second only to unemployment. After all, the collapse of the Weimar Republic is inseparable from hyperinflation.

Helena did not answer Hitler's question directly, but asked with a smile, "Then I would like to ask Your Excellency, is there any collateral behind the labor vouchers we have issued over the years? Has the issuance of labor vouchers caused obvious inflation? Practice has proved that although this kind of bill without collateral actually increases the money supply, it does not cause serious inflation. In recent years, our German prices have been more stable than those of other industrial countries. Your Excellency, have you ever thought about this? why?"

"Because the labor vouchers we issue are used to purchase products and services directly from the whole society. If we don't use labor vouchers to purchase these products and services, industrial workers will lose their jobs at home, and production equipment will be idle and rusty, and these products and services will not Existence. That is to say, as long as there are still economic resources in the society that have not been fully utilized, the government will directly use the printed banknotes to utilize these idle economic resources and transform them into real products and services, which will not cause inflation. Because Increased money supply and increased product supply are basically matched."

"So here comes a fundamental question: What is the goal of the national finance? I think that whether it is a fiscal deficit or a fiscal surplus, or the most ideal fiscal balance considered by traditional economists, it is only the national finance to achieve its economic goals. The goal is a means rather than an end itself. And the real purpose of finance itself is only one: to realize the full use of the country's economic resources without causing serious inflation. In order to achieve this ideal goal, our finance can be You can be in deficit, you can be in balance, you can be in surplus, of course."

"I call this financial model oriented towards achieving a certain economic function 'functional finance'. In this financial model, the central bank does not need to be independent. It is similar to the fact that the central bank can be used only as a bookkeeper for the financial system. Departments exist. As long as there are unused economic resources in the society, such as labor force, production equipment, natural resources, etc., the central bank should provide unlimited funds for the accounts of the material and administrative departments. It’s just a matter of changing the numbers on the books, and those idle economic resources will be mobilized because the country purchases more products and services, and the result is that under certain technical conditions, the full potential of the economy can be realized.” Helen Na said.

"But what happens if the amount of money issued is not precisely controlled, causing the government to expand its purchases of products and services beyond the potential supply capacity of our economy? Will this lead to a general increase in prices?" Hitler asked again.

"Your Excellency has seen the crux of the problem. If the government continues to expand the purchase of products and services when the economic resources of the society have been fully utilized, it may indeed lead to a general rise in prices, because at this time the economic system has reached saturation. Provide more products and services to correspond to the additional currency.” Helena said matter-of-factly: “However, function-oriented finance can still quickly respond to this situation, we can increase taxes or reduce flexible expenditures such as public construction. , return the currency by artificially creating a fiscal surplus, and then throw the withdrawn currency directly into the shredder for destruction, and the inflation will naturally be resolved.”

"Miss Helena, please wait a moment. Are you sure what you said just now is asking the government to throw the currency from the fiscal surplus directly into the shredder and destroy it? Instead of storing the fiscal surplus in the bank?" Hitler was a little afraid Asked confidently, because what Helena said was really counter-intuitive.

"Of course!" Helena replied: "When we turn the central bank into the accountant of the Ministry of Finance, fiscal deficits and fiscal surpluses are just numbers that exist on the ledger. And bankruptcy, similarly, no amount of fiscal surplus will make the fiscal richer. The purpose of implementing fiscal deficit is to activate idle resources with newly created money and eliminate unemployment; the purpose of implementing fiscal surplus is to In order to withdraw excess currency and eliminate inflation."

"This is the essence of what I mean by functional finance. Finance is only for the realization of the predetermined economic function, and the national finance can freely choose deficit or surplus to achieve economic goals without worrying about repayment. In short, in addition to the country's economic potential Fiscal policy should not be constrained by any external factors other than the upper limit and predetermined economic goals. Therefore, in my opinion, Schacht’s constant worry that the government will not be able to repay the maturing Meifu bonds in the future is purely unfounded. Transformed into real productivity, Meifu coupons can be repaid by the central bank directly printing money."

Chapter 273 Currency Stability

The core of the solution that Helena sold to Hitler was to completely abolish the independent status of the central bank, and then transfer the dominance of currency issuance from the central bank to the financial department. It can directly control the circulation of currency in the market, and then mobilize the potential production capacity of the society when economic resources are not fully utilized, or curb inflation when social production reaches saturation.

This prescription sounds quite similar to the controversial Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) before she traveled. In the last plane, the theory is a non-mainstream economic theory that emerged in Western countries after the 90s, but this idea of ​​letting the central bank act as an accountant for the material and administrative departments is nothing new.In fact, the motherland of Helena's previous life adopted an economic management model in which finance and the central bank were not separated until the "Banking Law" was promulgated in 1995.

When mainstream economists in later generations emphasized the importance of an independent central bank, they often used the hyperinflation that occurred in history as a negative teaching material, trying to prove that without the supervision of an independent central bank, the economy would inevitably fall into the quagmire of inflation and cannot extricate itself. .However, Helena scoffed at this specious point of view, because this point of view could not withstand careful scrutiny, both in practice and logic.

As long as you spend a little time studying the hyperinflation events that have occurred in history, it is not difficult to find that their real commonality lies in the collapse of productivity caused by the disintegration of social organizational structures, which has nothing to do with the independence of the central bank.Otherwise, how to explain why the republic with poor central bank independence was able to successfully complete the price breakthrough in the 90s, while Russia, which started the process of central bank independence earlier than the republic, suffered a tragic currency collapse?

This is because long before Russia’s currency collapsed, its country’s social organization capacity had already disintegrated with the dissolution of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, and the disintegration of Russia’s internal social organization capacity coupled with the strong entry of Western commodities directly Destroying the social productive capacity of the nascent country, the collapse of the ruble is inevitable, regardless of whether there is an independent central bank and no matter what the Russian government does in response.Simultaneously with the collapse of the ruble is the asset price in Russia. The huge legacy left by the Soviet Union to Russia is either gradually decaying in the wind and sun, or it is collected by international hot money at an outrageously low price.

On the other hand, the Republic, although during the period from the end of the 80s to the beginning of the 90s, due to the sudden release of suppressed consumer demand in the planned economy era, social production could not adapt to the explosive growth of consumer demand in a short period of time, resulting in the Also facing severe inflationary pressures.However, because the Republic can ensure the general stability of fiscal expenditures and the financial system through a game of finance and currency, this allows the economic system to relatively calmly organize new production capacity to respond to the surge in consumer demand. As consumer demand increases, inflation will naturally be subsided gradually.

The transmission mechanism of hyperinflation in Zimbabwe, which everyone is familiar with later, is similar to that of Russia. Zimbabwe, as a traditional African agricultural country, had an absolute advantage in its agricultural economy when it became independent, and the white farmers left over from the colonial era acted as role as a key organizer in Zimbabwe's agricultural economy.However, the Zimbabwean government’s economic policy of expelling white farmers happened to destroy its own economic organizational structure, which immediately triggered a major collapse in Zimbabwe’s agricultural production. Zimbabwe has changed from a major grain exporter to a country that relies on international aid for even rations.In the case of social production plummeting, no matter whether Zimbabwe has an independent central bank, it cannot prevent the collapse of its currency purchasing power.

All in all, whether the central bank is independent and whether it is independent is not necessarily related to the stability of the purchasing power of the currency. Those hyperinflation events that occurred in history were not caused by the lack of independence of the central bank of the country where it is located.The occurrence process of all hyper-inflation must be the collapse of social organizational strength first, and the collapse of social productivity behind.As for the soaring prices caused by the proliferation of money later, it is only the inevitable result of the collapse of social production. In a country where social organizations have disintegrated, regardless of whether there is an independent central bank, the collapse of the monetary system is inevitable, because No one can reorganize production in such a country with the money in his hands, and money without the backing of social production cannot have purchasing power.

Some economists of later generations are unwilling to delve into how the social organization structure and social production capacity of the host country collapsed step by step before the occurrence of hyperinflation in history, and they are unwilling to delve into how the Republic’s fiscal and monetary Those who have survived the most difficult years of economic transformation under the national system simply and rudely regard the independence of the central bank as a prerequisite for currency stability. This approach seriously deviates from the scientific spirit of seeking truth from facts.

Therefore, whether or not the central bank should remain independent, and to what extent it should remain independent, should never have a priori standard answers, and each country should and must make choices based on its own historical traditions and realities.Although neo-liberal economists in Western countries set the establishment of an independent central bank and interest rate marketization as the basic principles of the reform of the former Soviet Union and Eastern European countries in the so-called "Washington Consensus" in 1989, the historical facts have been established beyond doubt. Proof: An independent central bank and market-oriented interest rates are not a panacea for maintaining currency stability. The only thing that can support the purchasing power of a country's currency for a long time is a stable social organization and strong social production capacity.

If we study the history of the establishment of an independent central bank, it is not difficult to find that the Bank of England was established in the 17th century and officially obtained the status of the British central bank in the 19th century, marking the establishment of an independent central bank in the modern sense.This is a historic event in the long-term struggle between the bourgeoisie and the feudal aristocracy, because it marks that the emerging financial bourgeoisie finally replaced the feudal princes and nobles in the past, and completely controlled the currency issuance power of the entire country.

In Helena's view, the establishment of an independent central bank system under the control of the bourgeoisie was of historical significance in the historical period at that time, and the concept of an independent central bank was also born in the struggle between the bourgeoisie and the feudal aristocracy However, researchers of later generations should not regard the progress of this specific historical period as the end of history, nor should they regard the independence of the central bank as a theoretical dogma that does not allow future generations to question it.

Helena is not saying that the independence of the central bank is necessarily bad, but judging from the current domestic and international situations facing Germany, temporarily depriving the Reichsbank of its independent status is indeed a more favorable option, and the current integration of finance and currency is also a good option. The strong guarantee for the successful completion of the "Four-Year Plan", Helena believes that at this time, one should no longer be bound by traditional economic thinking. Monetary policy is necessary to serve the fiscal function.

"If the directors of the Reichsbank know our plan, they will definitely jump in anger. Mr. Schacht may find it difficult to agree with this plan this time. In fact, Mr. Schacht does not agree with the government's implementation of the 'four-year plan'. , and Austrian economists who believe in free markets even greet my family in the newspapers." Mustache, who had decided to formally dissolve the board of the Reichsbank, once said half-jokingly to Helena.

"It doesn't matter, Your Excellency the Head of State, almost every economic sanction we have adopted over the years has been criticized by the so-called orthodox economists as a muddy sauce that dogs would not eat. In fact, even those adopted by Mr. Roosevelt on the other side of the Atlantic In my opinion, economic policies that can neither cure the symptoms nor the root cause are all included in their verbal criticism. In their eyes, our economic policy is even more heresy among heresies." Helena spread her hands nonchalantly Said, then Helena blinked again, and added: "But to be honest, it is precisely because we did not follow the advice of those so-called orthodox economists that Germany's current economic development momentum is still very good. "Helena used a little humor to make everyone present, including Mustache, laugh heartily.

Chapter 274 Controlling the Central Bank

Just as Hitler and Helena had expected, the German government's move to abolish the independence of the central bank was strongly opposed by the country's major bankers, because the German central bank, the Deutsche Reichsbank, was not in the control of the German central bank in the past. It is not in the hands of the German government, but is controlled by the independent Deutsche Reichsbank board of directors, which is composed of eight financiers from the major German banks, and the rotation of the board members of these central banks does not need to accept government appointments. Turning Germany's central bank into a de facto state within a state in the German economic system.Behind the control of the country's currency issuance rights are huge economic interests and strong political influence. The German government's deprivation of the central bank's independence means that bankers will lose this privilege.

However, the directors of the Deutsche Reichsbank soon discovered that they were powerless to stop Hitler's actions. This is because the series of reform measures adopted by Helena had in fact emptied the Deutsche Reichsbank in the German economy to a large extent. pivotal position in .On the one hand, this is because the current German government has now brought the three main production factors of land, labor, and industrial capital under its own control, and has also issued "labor vouchers" that completely bypass the central bank system. But it can still temporarily provide the market with government bills of liquidity, which means that the current German economy is no longer so dependent on the central bank. As long as Hitler is willing to pay a certain price, he even has the ability to kick the current German Reichsbank. , and then re-establish a central financial system that better suits their needs.

The members of the board of directors of the Deutsche Reichsbank have always felt that they are the masters of the lifeline of the German economy, so for a series of reform measures implemented by Hitler at the suggestion of Helena, these financiers who control the right to issue German currency are actually very happy. Disapproving, because they simply do not believe that the country's economy can continue to operate without them.However, when Hitler asked the board of directors of the Reichsbank to dissolve, these financiers couldn't even believe that the "Bohemian corporal" who had obeyed them in the past dared to have a showdown with them.However, when these directors calmed down from their shock and anger, they realized that they might not be as indispensable to the country as they thought they were.

The board of directors of the Deutsche Reichsbank was disbanded silently, and then the German government promulgated the new "Reichsbank Act" to replace the old version of the Banking Act promulgated in 1924. The absolute control of the Reichsbank, and incidentally, the complete termination of the exchange of marks with gold, liberated the mark from the curse of the "golden cross".Although Helena does not think that the sharp depreciation of the dollar against gold like Roosevelt can really save the economy, and although the central bank governor Schacht still hopes to retain the gold standard system, the international currency market that revolves around gold has collapsed, and major currencies such as the U.S. dollar and the British pound have collapsed. With international currencies leaving the gold standard one after another, if Germany continues to adhere to the gold standard system that exists in name only (marks cannot be freely converted into gold before this), apart from making itself subject to the major gold producers such as the United Kingdom and the United States, there is indeed no any substantive significance anymore.

However, in Helena's view, this does not mean that Mark's purchasing power will shrink because of this, because Helena previously hired unemployed workers by issuing "labor vouchers", and then let the workers use the "labor vouchers" to buy daily necessities, and then let the enterprises use "labor vouchers" Labor vouchers are used to deduct tax payable in a more favorable way, creating a huge off-balance sheet currency circulation system.However, the price of commodities on the German market did not rise significantly due to the injection of liquidity. This is because although the "labor voucher" was printed out of thin air by the German government, when it was transformed into actual productivity through the labor of workers Afterwards, the "labor voucher" is no longer a simple piece of color-printed paper, but is backed by real and reliable social wealth.

The successful practice of "labor vouchers" has made Helena more firm in her belief in the source of currency purchasing power, that is, the purchasing power of currency must be linked to social productivity, so even if there is more liquidity in the market, as long as social productivity is If a simultaneous increase can be obtained, it will not lead to serious inflation.On the contrary, before the Helena crossing, when the economic crisis broke out, the central banks of various countries, including the Federal Reserve, generally created base money and released liquidity by purchasing assets (mainly treasury bonds) on a large scale in the secondary market. The Federal Reserve has just started this kind of operation of printing money to buy treasury bonds.Helena believes that this method of creating money is ineffective in fighting economic crises.

Because when the central bank creates currency by purchasing assets in the secondary market, it will inevitably first push up the prices of various assets in the market through a series of transmission mechanisms, and this process itself is nothing more than a numerical change in asset prices. It is impossible to create new social productive forces.Of course, market players will raise funds in the market through various channels, so that part of the newly added currency will flow to the actual production field. However, this part of the funds that actually enter the production field is really insignificant compared with the inflation of asset prices.

Before Helena crossed, the total price of various assets in the world had reached more than 80 times the cash in circulation, which means that most of the liquidity injected into the market by the central banks of various countries has been transformed into a rise in asset prices. Compared with the huge capital market, the cash in circulation that is directly used to drive economic activities is insignificant.Such a low currency operation efficiency is unacceptable to Helena, so she chooses to use the currency creation model in which the government directly creates credit to drive productivity development, and the nationalization of the central bank can make this process smoother. With the recovery of the German economy, Helena does not want to always use temporary measures such as "Meifu vouchers" and "labor vouchers".

The process of removing the independence of the central bank in Germany went so smoothly that the members of the board of directors of the Reichsbank relented without even putting up any decent resistance.In fact, in the previous plane, Hitler also completed the nationalization process of the central bank similar to the current plane, but it was already 1939, which was too late for Germany’s war preparations. .The plane of Helena has made the German government control the central bank at a much faster pace, so that Germany's "four-year plan" has the powerful support of the integration of monetary policy and fiscal policy.

After hearing the news of the surrender of the Reichsbank board of directors from Hitler, Helena even stirred the tea in the cup a little bored, and then lazily said to Hitler: "The old foxes on the Reichsbank board of directors are really, even if they know I’m sure I’m going to lose this round, so I’d better jump a few more times in front of us, they surrendered before they hit the board like this, which makes me feel that this reform is not very technical.” Hitler, who was delighted to be able to control the central bank, heard a black line on his face.

Chapter 275 Watching the Controversy

Although in order to make the "Four-Year Plan" of Germany on this plane scientifically formulated and successfully completed, Helena not only produced many important research results in the field of operations research in the later generations in advance, but also helped Hitler dissolve the board of directors of the German Reichsbank. The process of nationalizing the central bank was completed, allowing the central bank to directly fund the state treasury in any amount required by the Four-Year Plan until Germany's full economic potential was fully developed.But at least at this stage, Helena is not prepared to implement an all-encompassing centrally commanded economic model in Germany like the Soviet Union.

Therefore, although there are indeed a considerable proportion of planning factors in the German economic operation, the market still plays a fundamental and overall role in the allocation of resources. The factors of the planned economy are mainly concentrated in specific resources and specific industries, and these plans The existence of factors also has two very clear purposes: first, to combat the scarcity of raw materials caused by the harsh international trade environment in Germany and reduce dependence on imported resources; second, to integrate military industry and raw material industry in the shortest possible time. Developed to ensure that it can cope with the needs of large-scale wars in the future.

While Helena was busy there, the international economics community was also engaged in a famous debate in the history of the previous plane.On one side of the debate is the free-market economists headed by the Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises, and on the other is the market socialists headed by the Polish economist Oscar Lange.The focus of the debate is whether socialism can carry out effective economic accounting, or whether economic planners can achieve a reasonable allocation of economic resources under the condition of socialization of the means of production.

Among them, the free market economists headed by Mises insisted on the viewpoint of traditional economics derived from Adam Smith, and insisted that the market is the most effective means of allocating resources, and what the market means can’t do, the plan means can’t do it either.The market socialists headed by Lange put forward the famous "Langer model". In this model, there is a market for consumer goods and a labor market, but the means of production are owned by the society, so there is no market for means of production, but The planning department can adjust the price of production materials through "trial and error", so as to achieve a balance between supply and demand.

Although Helena was a mere bystander in the economic debate known in the previous plane as the "Lange Debate", her actions in German economic reforms inadvertently provided ammunition for market socialists .Although the result of this debate was that neither Mises nor Lange could convince the other, but like the previous plane, the academic circle at this time generally believed that Lange, who supported the planned economy, won the debate.However, this is not because Lange achieved an overwhelming victory over Mises in theory, but because of the general environment of the world economy. Countries such as Britain, France, and the United States, which emphasize the free market economy, are deeply mired in economic crisis, while Germany and the Soviet Union However, relying on the government's strong control over the economy, it has achieved world-renowned economic development achievements.

Among them, Germany's economic recovery and development speed are particularly amazing. This does not even require economists to go to Germany to verify it.Three years ago, German industrial production fell by as much as 40%, and the unemployed population was close to 600 million.Now, in order to alleviate the shortage of domestic labor force, Germany has to put up signboards on the streets of major cities in the United States to attract unemployed American workers to Germany.The "Bremen" and "Europa", two super cruise ships with a displacement of more than 4 tons, which have been active on the Atlantic route for these years, will be full of Americans who are going to Germany to find job opportunities every time they return from the United States.

Helena's attitude towards Ludwig Mises and Oscar Lange, the old enemies, was not in favor of any of them. One of the debates, even in the 21st century before Helena crossed, it is difficult to accurately say who is right and who is wrong.Economics is different from the natural sciences, and it is difficult to perfectly control variables for comparison.

However, in Helena's eyes, both the free market faction of Mises and the market socialist faction of Lange have a common problem. Conditions: For example, the free market school assumes that factors in the market can flow freely, and there is no monopoly, excessive competition, and information asymmetry; another example is that the market socialist school assumes that the information held by planners is completely true and reliable, and there is no unique Interest demands.Then use this to accuse the other party of the possible problems of operating in a non-ideal environment.That is to say, they are all too easy to see the problems in the actual operation of other people's theories, but it is their turn to build an idealized utopia with their own theories.

This is also the reason why Helena is unwilling to get involved in this famous economic debate. Although Oscar Lange once sent an invitation to Helena, in his opinion, Helena must be on his side, but Helena He politely declined his invitation.In the formulation of economic policies, Shanghai Lena does not actually adhere to specific ideas, and basically uses whatever feels useful.Helena also doesn't think she has the potential to be an economist, so she basically takes a stand-by attitude towards those debates in the field of economics.For example, another economic debate in this era besides the "Lange Debate": the debate between Hayek and Keynes on whether the government should intervene during the economic crisis. Helena also did not participate in it, and did not even express herself in any public places. Attitude.

What Helena is most concerned about now is: After more than a year of brewing and intricate international games, Mussolini, the ambitious and talented Italian dictator, started to fight after receiving a guarantee from France that he would not intervene in his military operations against Ethiopia. The troops originally stationed on the French-Italian border were transferred to Italy's colony in East Africa bordering Ethiopia. Now Italy has finally pieced together an expeditionary force of up to 30 people there, just waiting for Mussolini's order. Started against Ethiopia, the only independent country in Africa.

Chapter 276 Diving and Bubbling

It has been 10 months since the outbreak of the "Warwar incident", when the demarcation commission established by Ethiopia and the United Kingdom to resolve the ownership of the grasslands on the country's border with British Somalia, was escorted by Ethiopian security forces to Ethiopia The Varvar area on the eastern border of the country was surveyed.However, the Italians, who had long been eyeing the Varvar region, hoped to expand the border of Italian Somalia to this region, so they not only strongly prevented the Ethiopian army from camping here, but also had a fierce exchange of fire with the Ethiopian army. As a result, the Italian army was waiting More than 60 people were killed. Although the casualties in Ethiopia were actually greater than those in Italy, this was after all a conflict between Western industrial countries and African agricultural countries, so Italy sadly became the laughing stock of the entire Western world again.

Mussolini, who stole chickens and lost money, was naturally furious, so Italy began to increase its troops to Italian Eritrea and Italian Somalia bordering Ethiopia, and proposed harsh conditions for reconciliation to Ethiopia, including saluting the Italian flag locally The method recognized that the Varvar area was owned by Italy, handed over the "murderer" who attacked the Italian army to Italy, and compensated Italy with 20 Ethiopian silver dollars.Of course, it is impossible for Ethiopia to agree to such a request, not to mention that Italy was defeated by itself in the last Italian-Egyptian war, so when the threat was invalid, Mussolini began to firmly launch a war to annex this ancient East African country.

Although the conflict between Italy and Ethiopia was fully intensified after the "Varvar Incident", Mussolini's strategy for Ethiopia cannot be said to be a whim, because Ethiopia is dictatorial to this Italian who is obsessed with his dream of the Roman Empire. For others, it was an obstacle he had to overcome on the way to restore Italy to the glory of the Roman Empire.If Italy annexes Ethiopia, it will not only gain access to the rich natural resources there, but also connect Italy's two isolated colonies in East Africa: Italian Eritrea and Italian Somalia.In the past few months, Mussolini has been excited about the huge map of Africa in his office countless times, as if he has seen the rise of a brand-new Italian East Africa created by himself.

With the signing of the "French-Italian-Roman Agreement" with France in early 1935, in exchange for French Foreign Minister Laval's promise to allow Italy to "act freely" in Ethiopia, Mussolini's ambitions for Ethiopia have expanded to passers-by Everyone knows it, but Mussolini, after reaching an agreement with France, out of prudent considerations, needs to further test the attitude of the British before doing anything to Ethiopia.However, as another stakeholder in the Ethiopian issue, Britain's attitude towards Italy at this time is also out of contradictions and entanglements.

If only considering its own colonial interests in eastern Africa, Britain actually does not want to see Italy annexing Ethiopia, because if Ethiopia is annexed by Italy, the British Somalia, an important colony at the eastern end of Africa, will be separated from British Sudan and British Kenya. The land connection between them will be separated by the colonies controlled by Italy, not to mention that Ethiopia, as the East African water tower and the birthplace of the Blue Nile, also controls a considerable part of the water source in the lower reaches of the Nile.Although Britain at this time did not believe that Italy, a weak country, dared to threaten itself because of its pride in being the world's hegemon for a century, it still found it difficult for Britain to accept that Italy poached this strategic location from under its nose.

What really caused the British to be hesitant on the Ethiopian issue stemmed from the British consideration of balancing the power of the European continent for hundreds of years.Because if the United Kingdom unilaterally adopts a tough attitude towards Italy, it will inevitably force Italy to alienate its relationship with the United Kingdom and turn to seek alliances with European powers such as France or Germany.From the perspective of the United Kingdom, whether Italy unilaterally forms an alliance with France or Germany, it will make it impossible for the United Kingdom to continue to maintain its dominance over the relationship between major European countries with a relatively detached attitude. Can't really make a tough stance.

Therefore, in the history of the previous plane, although the United Kingdom clearly expressed its opposition to Italy's annexation of Ethiopia, it always expressed its synchronization with France at the League of Nations meeting to discuss sanctions against Italy. For example, the British Foreign Secretary Hall made it clear: " We do not intend to go further than the French government, and by collective action we mean full cooperation with France, and any lack of such cooperation will destroy collective action, which is the only thing we are prepared to act on Base."

Due to France's partiality to Italy, the new recruit, and the United Kingdom's unwillingness to take a tough attitude towards Italy alone, the sanctions passed are not painful to Italy at all: on the surface, even vegetables and fruits are against Italy. Italy is included in the embargo, but the coal, oil and iron ore necessary for Italy to maintain its war machine were "considerately" excluded from the embargo list by France and the United Kingdom.Facing this kind of "warm feeling" sanctions bill, Mussolini is of course impossible to be intimidated, and the Ethiopian emperor Haile Selassie I, who felt that he had been fooled by Britain and France, left He said the very famous ruthless words of later generations: "Today is our turn, but tomorrow it will be your turn."

After the "Valvar incident" in this plane, Britain also fell into a state of contradiction and entanglement like the previous plane, but this state of the British did not last long, because of a seemingly unscientific thing And confused.Since the last world war, Germany, which has been diving online for a long time in the international hotspot affairs group, actually bubbled up on the Ethiopian issue this time, and the Germans are still standing on the standpoint of supporting Ethiopia and opposing Italy !

This abrupt style of painting made the British Foreign Secretary Hall want to ask the German diplomatic representative Ribbentrop face to face, whether Germany was stimulated by the clauses to contain Germany in the "French-Italian-Roman Treaty" earlier this year. Excessive. As for the banner of the Germans’ opposition to Italy’s colonial expansion in their public statements, British Foreign Secretary Hall did not believe a word. After all, major industrial countries have been playing with colonial expansion for hundreds of years. As for opposing colonial expansion In Hall's view, the rhetoric of "ism" is nothing more than a prop for the left-wing literati to express their humanitarian brilliance. I can't find a good reason to beat Italy.

But this time anyway, British Foreign Secretary Hall and British Prime Minister Baldwin welcomed the Germans' opposition to Italy's annexation of Ethiopia, because the attitude of the Germans solved their immediate troubles.Because the Germans rushed to the front to attract firepower, Britain could finally not only have to end up fighting against Italy by itself, but also prevent Italy from harming its colonial interests in East Africa after annexing Ethiopia.

Chapter 277 Yes Prime Minister

In the most spacious office of the three-storey building with black exterior walls at 10 Downing Street, the capital of the United Kingdom, Sir Samuel Hall, then the British Foreign Secretary, was presenting to the then British Prime Minister Stanley Sir Baldwin reports on the German position on Ethiopia.Prime Minister Stanley Baldwin is 68 years old this year. He may not be the oldest in the British political circle, but he is already a veteran Conservative politician with rich experience in politics. In fact, he is already the Sir Baldwin moved into the famous Georgian mansion on Downing Street for the third time and became Prime Minister of the British Empire.

"Honorable Chancellor, the German diplomats would like to convey to the British Government their wish that in view of the growing tension between Italy and Ethiopia, the Germans hope that in the event of a future war between Italy and Ethiopia, we will continue to allow them to use the Somalia, a part of the British Empire, is sending arms and supplies to Ethiopia. Does Your Excellency the Prime Minister think that we should respond to the Germans’ request?” Facing the abnormal attitude of the Germans on the Ethiopian issue, British Foreign Secretary Sir Hall dared not answer without authorization. So I reported to Prime Minister Baldwin immediately.

"Although Germany's attitude on the Ethiopian issue this time is indeed somewhat beyond my expectations, it is undoubtedly a good thing for relieving the pressure on our British Empire, isn't it?" Prime Minister Bowind took off the smoking a porcelain pipe, with a relaxed expression rarely seen since he was Prime Minister of the United Kingdom: "It must be admitted that Herr Hitler showed great talent in dealing with Germany's economic problems, but I think he is dealing with diplomatic problems." Obviously, there is still a lack of experience at the time. For example, Germany was too reckless when dealing with the Ethiopian issue this time. Germany's intentions, but what Herr Hitler is doing now will only push Italy completely over to Germany's opponent."

"Your Excellency is right." Foreign Minister Hall quickly echoed: "In fact, after the end of the war, Germany lost its status as the main arbiter in international political relations. The reason why it appears so reckless is to declare to the German people that Germany has re-emerged on the stage of major power relations. But Hitler may not have thought that their high-profile intervention in Ethiopian affairs just helped us solve our troubles. Mr. Hitler wanted to achieve Your Excellency, the Prime Minister, is currently very sophisticated, and may need at least ten years of political experience." Foreign Secretary Hall was obviously infected by the Prime Minister's optimism, and seized the opportunity to offer a compliment to Prime Minister Bowind.

"In addition to announcing Germany's return to the stage of great powers at home, Mr. Hitler may also have plans to gain some economic benefits from Ethiopia. You must know that although Ethiopia's finances are not rich, it has been very willing to buy weapons these years. It costs money, and Ethiopia is fairly rich in natural resources, many of which are very important lubricants for Germany's economic engine." The foreign minister's echo made Prime Minister Bowind feel that he has completely understood the Germans' thinking , So he said with a smile: "Although I don't think that the economic benefits that Germany gained from Ethiopia can offset the deterioration of the security environment caused by the intensification of conflicts with Italy, but if the Germans can really prevent the Italian team from annexing Ethiopia, we will There is no need to worry about the expansion of Italian colonial power in East Africa, which will pose a potential threat to the interests of the British Empire in the region."

"And Germany is different from Italy. We don't have to worry about threats to us after Germany and Ethiopia warm up. On the contrary, after Germany and Italy have turned against each other, their trade links with Ethiopia must be realized through our control area, that is to say Whether the trade relationship between Germany and Ethiopia can go on smoothly depends on the face and mood of our British Empire. In other words, after Germany intervened in the Ethiopian issue, Britain's right to speak in eastern Africa was not weakened, but It has been further strengthened!" Speaking of this, Foreign Secretary Hall is almost elated, and if this is done, it will be the biggest achievement capital he has obtained in his political career.

"Now you can inform the Germans, Sir Hall." Prime Minister Bowind picked up his pipe again: "Just say that I will persuade the parliamentarians to approve their request as soon as possible. As for Italy, please tell Mexico Solini, as long as Italy submits relevant applications, we can also consider allowing their supplies to pass through the territories of the British Empire in East Africa, although I think the Italians may not need it." Prime Minister Bowind suddenly laughed when he said this, After all, Italy already intends to belong to the two seaside colonies of Eritrea and Italian Somalia in East Africa. If it wants to transport supplies, there is no need to look far away. To create a little obstacle, the most important thing is that Italy has no position to accuse Britain of favoring Germany and Ethiopia.

Prime Minister Bowind finally told Foreign Secretary Hall: "If Italy really wants to go to war against Ethiopia in the near future, the British Empire can be quite tougher than the French in terms of diplomatic terms towards Italy, but in terms of actual actions, our best It is best not to go over France and act alone, especially not to impose economic and military sanctions on Italy alone, which will only make Italy completely fall to France. Since Hitler likes to show off so much, let Germany rush to the front and help us carry it " Prime Minister Bowind lit the new cut tobacco in his pipe, looked at the rising smoke and said leisurely: "When Germany finds itself about to fall into the encirclement woven by France in the future, they will extend a helping hand to us."

"Do you know, Sir Hall. The current policy of the UK in continental Europe is to neither allow France to fully form an encirclement of Germany, nor allow Germany to be easily freed from France's encirclement, let alone excessive oppression with France. Germany, which led Germany to move directly to the Soviet Union in the east! Only when our British Empire grasps the delicate balance of power among the three European powers, France, Germany, and the Soviet Union, can we sit firmly in the position of referee of European affairs for a long time. World Wars and The economic crisis has brought our relative strength to an unprecedented low, but the sun that has shone on the British Empire for hundreds of years cannot fall in the hands of our generation of politicians!" Bowen said as he bid farewell to Foreign Secretary Hall as he walked out of the prime minister's residence. The German Prime Minister whispered worriedly again.

"Yes, Prime Minister." Sir Hall firmly held Prime Minister Bowende's hand and replied firmly, but then he asked with some hesitation: "Then after our generation of politicians retires, what should Britain do?" What should we do? The dullest of the colleagues in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs felt that the empire’s bargaining chips in diplomatic situations were dwindling, and the threat of the Ethiopian issue to the empire was temporarily eased. The continuous decline of strength will one day..." Diplomats are the most sensitive to the rise and fall of national power, Sir Hall suddenly looked up at Prime Minister Bowind, but only saw the sadness on the smiling face just now.

"Go back, Sir Hall, at least the empire can hold on now." Prime Minister Bowende patted the shoulder of Foreign Secretary Hall, and then Hall heard Prime Minister Bowende's sigh floating in the autumn sky In the cold wind: "From ancient times to the present, there has been no empire that can last forever, but if the sun of the British Empire really falls, who would know who was living in the prime minister's mansion behind me at that time, what kind of bad luck would it be?" Where are the eggs?"

Chapter 278 Dig a Pit First

Germany received diplomacy from Downing Street that even in the event of war between Italy and Ethiopia, Germany would still be allowed to supply arms and other war supplies to landlocked Ethiopia through British colonies on the African coast After the guarantee, while continuing to conduct diplomatic condemnation of Italy's colonial expansion activities internationally, it began to gradually strengthen military cooperation with Ethiopia.

Haile Selassie I, the last emperor of the Ethiopian Empire in the last plane, caused widespread dissatisfaction among the citizens because he still lived a life of extravagance with dignitaries despite the severe famine that broke out in the country in his later years. Deposed by the "Supreme Coordination Council" in the turmoil of 1974, he died alone in his palace under house arrest two years later in 1975 (many suspect the murder of former Ethiopian President Mengistu who led the coup. him).But at least until the end of the Second World War in the last plane, the Emperor Haile Selassie was still an enlightened monarch who worked hard to govern, and he was also the banner of the colonial people's resistance to colonialism at that time.

Germany's weapons are very timely for Haile Selassie at this time, because most countries are unwilling to help this backward East African country and fight against Italy, which can barely rank among the world's powers, so Ethiopia Most of the arms order contracts signed with Western countries after the "Warvar incident" came to naught with the escalation of tensions between Ethiopia and Italy.For example, the United States announced the so-called "Neutrality Act" on August 1935, 8, prohibiting the export of weapons and equipment to belligerent countries. However, Italy is an industrialized country that can produce its own weapons after all, and the need for imported weapons is not so urgent, so this bill In fact, Ethiopia was unilaterally restricted.

The attitudes of other European countries towards arms exports to Ethiopia are also similar to those of the United States. Not only are France and the United Kingdom unwilling to provide weapons and equipment to Ethiopia, but even arms exporting countries such as Denmark and the Czech Republic have terminated their original arms purchase contracts with Ethiopia. .Belgium said that the artillery orders that have been signed will not be affected, but Haile Selassie also knows that the promise of a small country like Belgium is unreliable, because small countries lack independent action capabilities in the international political system, that is to say, international As the situation changes, Belgium may change its arms export policy at any time.

Therefore, after weighing the pros and cons, Haile Selassie listed German weapons as the main purchase target with little hesitation. The first order included more than 10 Mauser rifles, plus at least 1000 machine guns and more than 200 artillery pieces. .The new rifle/squad machine family designed by Schmeisser has gradually matured in recent years, and has begun to enter the German combat troops in batches, so those Mauser Gew.98 series rifles, MG08 series heavy machine guns, MG15. nA light machine guns and other equipment have all been stuffed into Ethiopia's procurement list.Although a considerable proportion of these weapons are used second-hand goods, the Ethiopian side doesn't care about these. What they want is cheap prices and sufficient quantities.

Although some self-conscious officials think that the price set for Ethiopia's arms exports is too low, there are even some voices who joke that the government's disposal of old weapons is only more expensive than scrap steel.In response to such remarks, Helena once complained to Hitler in this way: "This group of people may be limited by poverty. Although we are indeed planning to gain economic benefits by intervening in the Ethiopian issue this time, this benefit does not have to come from Ethiopia. You can’t get it on your own. With Ethiopia’s current level of economic development, even if we emptied their treasury, we can’t actually make much money. Therefore, we sell weapons to Ethiopia at a relatively low price not for making money, but for us. A step-by-step plan to accumulate chips. In fact, our real target is not the arms trade market of Ethiopia, but the fragile currency system of Italy!"

In order for Hitler to cooperate with his plan by performing more vigorously internationally, Helena revealed to Hitler the framework of her operation very early:

At this time, the Italian government’s debt burden was very heavy, exceeding 110% of its GDP. Coupled with the relatively poor industrial production capacity of Italy itself, the international exchange rate of the Italian currency, the lira, was always in an unstable state. .If Italy's war in Ethiopia is protracted in the future, Mussolini will almost certainly need to maintain government spending through further international financing activities, and Italy's already insufficient foreign exchange reserves will also be due to the need to import the resources necessary for the war And further to dry up, which will make the Italian lira's exchange rate more vulnerable.

If the capital market expects Italy to win the war against Ethiopia at this time, the fragility of the Italian currency will not be immediately manifested in the exchange rate market, and it may even rise against the trend under the rendering of optimism, because if Italy Being able to swallow Ethiopia, the expected benefits are enough to offset the unfavorable factors in the early stage.But this kind of optimism is undoubtedly pinned on an expectation that does not necessarily happen, and the exchange rate formed based on this optimistic expectation is like a skyscraper built on the beach, which cannot withstand strong winds and shocks at all. The test of the waves.

That is to say, once Italy's expectation of winning the war is suddenly reversed, the flamboyant international exchange rate of the Italian lira will collapse instantly. This is the real opportunity to make money in Helena's eyes.As for the money of the Ethiopians, Helena said that as long as Ethiopia wins a victory on the battlefield and ignites the fuse that is bearish on the Italian lira in the international currency market, Germany will give weapons free of charge to China even under the banner of supporting the anti-colonial struggle. Ethiopia can still make a lot of money, and by the way, it can also win a good reputation for fighting violence and being good.

As for whether Ethiopia can teach Italy an unforgettable lesson on the battlefield, Helena said that this is not an issue that she needs to care about at all. It is not as vulnerable as the previous legends, but because the battlefield information transmission mechanism of this era is very inefficient and easily distorted.

Thanks to Germany's good cooperation with Jewish capital in helping Jews return to Palestine, it also benefited from the strong dissatisfaction caused by Mussolini's long-term anti-Semitic policies among the Jewish community in the world.This time, in order to ensure that the Italian lira can be killed with one blow, the "Peace Fund" under the control of Germany has formed an alliance with a considerable part of Jewish capital on Wall Street on the issue of shorting Italy under Helena's matchmaking.This alliance between the two parties is not just a joint advance and retreat in the capital market. Germany also needs to be responsible for helping Ethiopia win a "major victory" at the right time, and international Jews need to use the media under their control to spread the news. "Major victory" was declared to the whole world in a short time.

As for whether this victory in Ethiopia annihilated a few Italian companies or a few divisions, it doesn’t really matter, even if Italy actually encountered a small setback on the battlefield, through the short-term information overload created by the media controlled by Jewish capital, It can still cause the whole world to be annihilated because of the Italian Afrika Korps. At this time, German and Jewish capital will join hands to short Italy, which will create an amazing avalanche effect. At this time, even if there are still investors in the capital market who doubt Italy The authenticity of the defeat can only escape with the large army.

At this time, Helena only needs to ask the "Peace Fund" and Jewish capital to ambush the empty bills of lira in advance, and then she can lie at home and count the money until she is soft.And when the exchange rate of the Italian lira was defeated, even if Italy had not completely failed militarily, Helena did not believe that Mussolini would still be able to continue this colonial war after losing its ability to finance internationally.

At that time, the German government came forward to clean up the mess again, and announced with Ethiopia that with the side-by-side efforts of the people of Germany and Ethiopia, this great anti-colonial struggle finally won a phased victory.At that time, Germany will have economic interests and international prestige, and the boys in the flying club will also be able to gain practical experience from Italian pilots. This kind of head given away by Mussolini for nothing, Helena is simply not worth it. There is no reason not to laugh at it.

Chapter 279 A Small Trial

In the last few months before the outbreak of the war, in addition to purchasing weapons from the Germans and intensifying the training of the army, under the advice of the military advisers sent by Germany, the Ethiopian Emperor Haile Selassie also did a very important thing, That is to declare the total abolition of slavery throughout Ethiopia.In fact, as a staunch supporter of reformists, Haile Selassie was also very supportive of the abolition of slavery. As early as when Haile Selassie was still serving as the regent of Queen Zoditu, the future "King Solomon and Queen of Sheba The 225th generation successor of the Queen's "has already begun to promote the abolition of slavery, and also used force to suppress the counterattack of the conservative forces supported by the Queen at that time.

After Queen Zoditu died of illness, Haile Selassie, who ascended the throne and proclaimed himself emperor, took another step forward on the abolition of slavery.He outlawed the slave trade in Ethiopia in 1931, with severe penalties for violators, and announced that if the slave owner died, the slaves owned by the slave owner would be automatically emancipated.This was originally a relatively moderate and steady reform measure that could slowly eliminate the remnants of slavery in decades, but the pressure of the war forced Ethiopia to speed up the pace of abolition.

Because Haile Selassie had just received word from his German advisers that General Emilio de Bono, who had just taken over as commander in chief of the Italian Army of East Africa, was preparing to present himself as the leader of Ethiopia's oppressed efforts under the banner of the abolition of slavery. Liberators to relieve international pressure.Helena admitted that she provided this information indirectly, because General Bono did it in the last plane of Italy.In Helena's view, to make the Ethiopian issue develop in a direction favorable to Germany, the importance of political games and economic games is far higher than the outcome on the battlefield.

Although everyone knows that Italy does not really want to liberate the Ethiopian people, Ethiopia took the initiative to completely abolish slavery in advance before Italy launched a war, which is very conducive to gaining political initiative.Moreover, after decades of economic reforms, the current slavery system has long since faded in the Ethiopian economy. Haile Selassie did not want to leave the Italians with aggression in order to protect the interests of those declining slave owners, and the Germans also I also don't want to give Italy any chance to turn around in international public opinion.

就在埃塞俄比亚全力准备迎接意大利的入侵的同时，意大利的东非军团经过也基本完成了兵力部署。吸取了上次意埃战争准备做得太过潦草导致惨败的教训，这次意大利人的备战工作做得还算比较周到。他们在埃塞俄比亚北翼的意属厄立特里亚集结了126架飞机、112辆坦克、580多门火炮、4200多挺机枪、3700多辆汽车以及35000多匹骡马，共计16.4万兵力担任主攻任务；在埃塞俄比亚南翼的意属索马里集结了38架飞机、45辆坦克、117门火炮、1600多挺机枪、1850辆汽车以及7900多匹骡马，共5.3万兵力担任辅攻任务。

Among them, the main offensive force on the north wing was led by General Emilio de Bono, commander-in-chief of the Italian East African Army, and the auxiliary offensive force on the south wing was led by General Rudolfo Graziani.In fact, according to the combat plan formulated by General Bono before the war, Italy should first stabilize its base in Eritrea, and then rely on its equipment advantages to gradually encroach and weaken Ethiopia to the south, instead of trying to accomplish all its achievements in one battle.However, Mussolini didn't like this safe but slow battle plan, because if he fought steadily as General Bono planned, Mussolini's dream of rebuilding the Roman Empire might not be realized until the year of the monkey.Under Mussolini's repeated urging, General Bono, unable to withstand the pressure, finally led his Italian East African Army to attack Ethiopia in the early morning of October 10 without declaring war.

At the beginning, the Italians' operations were relatively smooth. From October 10th to October 6th, they captured the northern border towns of Adwa and Axum in Ethiopia, but when the Italian army continued to attack the border towns of Tigray When attacking the hinterland, they were attacked by a reinforcement force of 10 people led by the Ethiopian Minister of Defense, Duke Murugieta. The Italian army was caught off guard and killed and injured thousands of people.

Although this casualty is not enough to hurt the Italian army, General Bono, who is cautious by nature, also realized that Ethiopia is not as vulnerable as ordinary African indigenous armed forces, so General Bono believed that he could fight against a single blow. The previously formulated strategy of steady and gradual encroachment was correct. In addition, the Ethiopian armed forces always used various methods to destroy the Italian army's logistics supply line, so General Bono ordered the Italian army to station in Adwa and Axum.

However, Mussolini, who was in Rome, didn't seem to understand the old general's difficulties, and kept urging General Bono to attack Makare, the capital of Tigray State, as soon as possible through telegrams. The true biography of that bald Jiang from the east.Of course, there is a reason why Mussolini urged his generals so eagerly. Taking advantage of Italy's frustrated offensive in Ethiopia, Helena launched a tentative attack on the lira, which caused the exchange rate of the lira to plummet for a time. Italy had to The exchange rate was barely stabilized by using foreign exchange reserves to buy lira internationally, but this also made Italy's foreign exchange reserves further decline.

Since the coal, oil, iron ore and other resources needed for Italy to launch a war are all highly dependent on imports, although the United Kingdom and France paddled water on the issue of sanctioning Italy, they did not directly cut off Italy's import channels, but the foreign exchange reserves Insufficiency coupled with not hoarding enough war resources made it difficult for Italy's fragile economy to cope with the long-term consumption of the war.Although purely from a military point of view, General Bono's approach is the safest.However, Mussolini knew that long-term wars were unacceptable both politically and economically. If domestic economic problems were transmitted to the people's livelihood and caused a significant decline in the living standards of residents, whether he could continue to hold the highest power in Italy would be an issue. problem, so a quick solution has become Mussolini's inevitable choice.

Although Helena and her allies lost a little money in this tentative attack on the Italian lira, she didn't care about it.Through this tentative attack, Helena not only caused Italy's foreign exchange reserves to further decline, but also tested that the international capital market's confidence in the Italian lira is not very sufficient, otherwise the exchange rate of the lira would not be due to such small-scale short-selling activities. There were violent fluctuations, so that Italy had to use its insufficient foreign exchange reserves to stabilize the lira, which made Helena more confident in the next plan, but this time the war between Italy and Ethiopia did not last for more than half a year. Time is endless, so there is no need for Germany to make a strong appearance in a short time.

2 Chapter Eighty