Werewolf: Please Don't Show Any More

"But the situation in front of me is like this. Player No. 2 is the Cupid Crow and can't run. 3, 5, and 7 can't run with a chain. 10, 12 You all said that 2 is the Miracle Grave Keeper. As soon as this statement came out, I I think you can't afford the single card, but you two have at most one person in the chain, who is it? Who is it that you can't tell the identity of me and 2 at this time?"

Mi Lan frowned. Before player No. 12 did not speak, she only listened to Douzi's speech. She concluded that Douzi should be a couple in a chain. The spirit wolf witch may be in the chain, and the evil spirit wolf witch may have been replaced by the magic guard. After all, she just doesn't want to call her the miracle gravekeeper. This is obviously a problem.

There is only one possibility for such a problem to occur. It is all in the chain. He must pretend to be confused, and Pan Li Yiran must be the Miracle Gravekeeper. Otherwise, the third party will collapse. , Mi Lan can understand it, but player No. 12 even said that Li Yiran is more like the Miracle Gravekeeper, she was a little dumbfounded, who is Douzi and player No. 12?

"Everyone, wake up, Evil Spirit Wolf Witch No. 8 and player No. 11 have come out of the front view. Player No. 2 can't afford the Miracle Gravekeeper at all. Don't be confused again, okay? Player No. 10, player No. 12, you guys Only one of the two can be in the chain, most likely it is player number 10, and you can go back to 12."

"Why do I say that the 10th probability is the couple in the chain? It's very simple. Player No. 12 talked about the logic of Christmas Day yesterday, and he doesn't look like a person in the chain, even if it is an identity for himself. Logic, I don't even want to try."

"In addition, player No. 2 ordered the 10-entry chain yesterday. It stands to reason that 10 should be more hostile to 2, but today he has been sitting cross-legged with the logic of the Miracle Gravekeeper. Such speech and behavior should be I don't believe it if you say it's okay."

"As I said yesterday, although player No. 2 ordered 3, 5, and 10 in the chain, it is not necessarily the opposite of the three of them. It is not ruled out the possibility of stepping on each other as identities. Now it seems that my logic is correct. 2 and 10 have a high probability of being on the same side, but at this point, 10 can’t go on any longer, and must rush up, but if player No. 2 is banished today, the third party will lose.”

"I still say that, the third party can rush, there is nothing wrong with it, but good people and wolves must not be tempted, and now it is clear that I am the miracle gravekeeper, this is the information of the evil spirit wolf witch and player No. 11 can match , you insist that we 1, 3, 5 or 1, 3, and 8 are on the same side, then it doesn't make much sense, it's purely logical."

“其实11号玩家说的非常对，在盘1、3、5或者1、3、8共边的时候，你们也不想一想这种逻辑存在的概率有多大。”

"How can there be such a coincidence, player No. 3 took 4 shots on the first night, and then shot him to death on the second night, and also scared player No. 2, what a coincidence, the magic guard is in the chain, how can there be It's such a coincidence that the Dream Master and the Magic Guard are in chains at the same time, there is a [*]% probability that you don't believe it, and you have to go to the horns, which is incomprehensible."

Mi Lan thought about it, and finally pointed the finger at Douzi. From her point of view, player No. 12 is unlikely to be a chain. After all, yesterday's speech was very good, unless he was a couple who made his identity for himself. , but this probability is still low, Mi Lan would rather believe that 12 is Hanhan who is not very clear-headed.

There is nothing wrong with this logic. 12 is indeed not in the chain, but the bean is not in the chain either. Both of them are discussing small probability events, but what they say is not unreasonable, although 1, 3, 5 or 1, 3, 8 There are some coincidences in the common side, but this is not uncommon. Are there still few coincidences in this game?

The most important thing is that some of the so-called coincidences are made by playing routines. The reason why the so-called routines are so profitable is because everyone thinks that the probability of their occurrence is too small, and they do not believe this situation. A statement, the more improbable you think it may be, the closer it is to the truth.

"Today, I don't want any single card to vote for me, except for players from third-party camps, whether or not the 10th player in the outer position is actually in the chain, or whether witches, dream masters, and magic guards Whoever kills player No. 4 with his skills will put them aside and get rid of player No. 2 first."

"Yesterday you thought that player No. 2 could be like the Miracle Grave Keeper, but today after the Evil Spirit Wolf and No. 11 reported the information, there is no reason for you to leave me first. You must leave player No. 2 first. That's it, I'm done."

[Player No. 2 please speak]

"Finally it's my turn to speak, don't worry, listen to me and talk to you slowly, first of all I must be the Miracle Gravekeeper, I was scared by the dream master last night, so I can't give the skills to player 11, not me No, I can't give it, I will definitely get 11 to receive skills tonight."

"It was agreed yesterday that everyone should not use skills. As a result, player No. 3 came to fear me at night. There is only one possibility. He is in the chain and doesn't want me to give skills to player No. 11. Therefore, 1, 3 Shared borders, which just matched my police suspicions."

"I don't know if player No. 8 is in the chain or not. If 8 is in the chain, he is a false report. My card is the Miracle Grave Keeper. He checked that I must be the Miracle Grave Keeper, definitely not the Cupid Crow. , but if 8 is not in the chain, it is the ghost of player No. 5, who exchanged me and player No. 1 last night, which caused the information checked out by 8 to be inconsistent with my identity."

"Actually, the third party's intention is very obvious, which is to try to make the information unfavorable to me as much as possible, including not letting me give player No. 11 skills, so that No. 11 can't believe that I am the Miracle Grave Keeper, and at the same time kill player No. 4, Let him not report the information, and then use the evil spirit wolf witch's inspection to further lower his identity."

"To be honest, the operation of the third party is very beautiful, and they use all their skills ingeniously and reasonably. It can be said to be impeccable. The living space left for me is very small, and I can only play 1, 3, 5 common sides or 1, 3 and 8 share the same edge, but I am exactly what they want, after all, when I come out with this logic, it is equivalent to pushing 1, 3, 5, and 8 to the opposite side at the same time.”

"Although I'm not sure who is in the chain between player 5 and player 8, I finally put them in the chain, and if there is no accident, their ticket will definitely hang on me, and as long as they put the ticket on me In me, the purpose of the third party is achieved."

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"I'm not afraid that I will be pushed out of the game by the resistance. What I'm afraid of is that after I'm out of the game, you believe that player No. 1 is the Miracle Gravekeeper, and the third party will go down. We have worked hard to find the chain. But in the end it fell short.”

Although Li Yiran's current situation is very critical and he is on the verge of life and death, he is still in very good condition, and he doesn't appear to be nervous or worried. Anyway, at this point, he is ready to be pushed out of the game.

However, he still wants to play the logic of the board. Now the only hope is to make 1, 3, 5 or 1, 3, and 8 a common side, and let go of all the outer positions. There is no second choice. Li Yiran originally I also wanted to play the magic guard and exchanged Xiao Ai with player No. 11, resulting in 11 not receiving the skills, but in this way, the test of the evil spirit wolf witch cannot be completed.

If there is no evil spirit wolf witch in this game, his living space will be larger, but the existence of evil spirit wolf wizard makes him have to play player No. 5 in the chain or the evil spirit wolf wizard in the chain, this is a dead end, In addition, he has no skills for player 11, and he has to kill Akai. As a result, it is really difficult for him to fight against Mi Lan.

 …  

Now it depends on whether the outside position person believes in his logic, or whether the outside position player is willing to play a small probability event. If he doesn't, just like player No. 11, he must be out. There's still a chance if you want.

"Actually, player No. 12 just talked about a very important point. If I am a Cupid crow, if I can't keep it, the witch in the chain, the dream master or the magic guard can't use their skills to reveal themselves. , what they have to do is try to distance themselves from me and try to resist pushing others to go on."

"But this is not the case. He directly used his skills to kill player No. 4. However, there is no benefit in doing so. I still have to be resisted, because all the information points to me that I am not the Miracle Grave Keeper. Once I am resisted Isn't it stupid to use his skills to push out the game?"

"Besides, the dream master No. 3 can't be on the same side with me. I put him in the chain when the police came, and he hit me with a backhand. I was a Cupid crow. The police played even more fiercely, let alone player No. 5. It's about the same as 3."

"The only possibility to share a side with me is Witch No. 7, but what did you see 7 do this round? He did nothing, just said that 4's death has nothing to do with him, think about it for yourself, if player No. 7 and I share By the way, what's the use of him poisoning player No. 4 last night."

"I talked to the single good man and the werewolf in the outer position. I can be pushed out of the game today, but you must not recognize the No. 1 player as the Miracle Grave Keeper. I will give 1 tomorrow, oh no, I will give 1 to the knife tonight, The Magic Guard can't change 1 anyway."

After listening to Li Yiran's speech, everyone feels that it's okay, at least the logic of the conversation has been discussed, but it is a pity that there is no bright speech, so it is difficult to believe that he is the miracle gravekeeper, after all, evil Linglangwu and player No. 11 verified each other's statements. More than [*]% of Li Yiran was a Cupid crow. Even if it was to be safe, he would be given out first.

This situation or the result was within Li Yiran's expectations. Originally, they took the risk and gave it a shot. It was normal for them to lose the bet. After all, the chance was really slim. It's hard, if the third party can win this round, it's no exaggeration to say it's a miracle.

Chapter [*] The situation is already very bad

[Player No. 3 please speak]

"What else is there to talk about? It's obvious that player No. 2 is Cupid's crow. Last night, player No. 4 was down. I didn't activate any skills. I didn't kill him. I didn't receive the skills, it's all because 2 can't give the skills, not me, this matter has nothing to do with me, he's just talking about me and fooling you."

"2 and 7 must be on the same side. Last night, 4 must have been poisoned by player 7. I woke up today and poured dirty water on me and player 5. The one left in the chain should be player 10 and player 8. The evil spirit wolf witch has come out of the front view, saying that the test 2 is a Cupid crow, but not only did he not believe it, but the test person who returned the 8 was replaced by the magic guard, and even said that the 8 itself was in the chain."

"Such a speech, such a mentality and logic, is already crooked. I guess he has no choice but to rush up, even if he knows that he is dealing with a low probability event and knows that his speech is full of loopholes, he must admit it. Miracle Grave Keeper, if you don't try your best to get player No. 2 out of the game at this time, their third party will lose."

"Player No. 2 will be released today, I'll say it again, the death of player No. 4 has nothing to do with me, and you don't think about it, how could it be such a coincidence, I just shot player No. 4 on the first night, what reason do I have for the first night? What about the 4th shot? The player No. 2 I shot on the first night, I wanted to shoot him to death directly, but I was afraid that it would affect your sight, so I promised not to die at night."

Akai is still implementing the policy of hitting Li Yiran. There is no way. He has already been killed by Li Yiran. In this case, he must kill Li Yiran with his backhand. The two are now absolute opposites. Today's vote, he I am afraid that he will also vote on Li Yiran. Once he votes for Mi Lan, his identity will be completely exposed.

And once his identity is exposed, the third party will have no hope at all, so he can't help Li Yiran to charge the ticket, he will lose if he charges to the third party, and there is still hope if he doesn't charge.

Now Akai not only wants to fight Li Yiran, but also focuses on sincerity. After all, from his perspective, Xiao Ai has a high probability of being a voodoo, and there is only a small probability that he was killed by a magic guard. , but it can only be mentioned a little. If you pay too much attention to this point, it will cause the vigilance of the pure heart.

"Player No. 8, don't think too much, it may not be right to give back your own test, you put your heart in your stomach, I can't guarantee anything else, but you tested 2 to be a Cupid crow, it must be right, just now 2 You have also heard the speech of player No. [*], he even put you in the chain, isn't that just trying to use you as a counter-push?"

"The same sentence, the exchange of 5 and 1 by the Magic Guard No. 2 is an extremely unlikely event. Today, let's set the logic first, and the high probability event will take out the No. 2 player, and let the wolf knife No. 1 player at night, just like Player No. 11 said that Cupid Crows must be played in 1 and 2, so they will all be eliminated, so the head office?"

"Player 6, I played you 4 and 6 in the chain yesterday, maybe I didn't think much, but think about it, if I were in the chain, both of you were single cards recognized by the audience, I would play You? Didn't that hit the gun yourself?"

"We are both wolves and real teammates. I hope you can trust me once. Today's vote is the No. 2 player, and No. 1 is the Miracle Grave Keeper. If you doubt my identity, even if the third party is out , we can't win, and tomorrow, the good people will even force you to give me first priority, if you don't believe me anymore and push me away, you will be taken advantage of by the good people."

“反正该说的我都说了，第三方也都找出来了，就是2、7、10或者2、5、10，总归2、10是定死的，5号玩家和7号玩家出一个容错率，我个人觉得4号玩家就是被7给毒死的，但为了逻辑的严谨性，我把5号玩家换死4的可能也盘进来。”

"But I hope you 5 don't be hostile to me. My purpose is not to hit you, but to be logical and careful. If I don't challenge you, someone from the outside will definitely say that we have 1, 3, and 5 together. On the side, in the same way, you can also challenge me, I can understand."

Akai chatted very seriously, giving the impression that he was determined to get out of Li Yiran. For this reason, he also talked to Charming Heart with a police badge, and also talked to No. 8 Evil Spirit Wolf Witch. but who would have thought that two and three of them would share the same side?

Therefore, some seemingly impossible things do not mean that they do not exist. There must be some people in the logic field of 2 and 3 stepping on each other as identities, but when they think about it, the probability of such a thing is too small, and no one is willing Believe it, just like Li Yiran's 1, 3, 5 or 1, 3, and 8 co-editions, they are all low-probability events. One is indeed a strong logic, but the other is the truth.

To put it bluntly, as long as the logic makes sense, there is no right or wrong. Even if the probability is small, it depends on how you choose. Sometimes your choice is right, and sometimes your choice is wrong. If you can accurately distinguish the lie and the truth between the false and the real, you are a god.

[Player No. 5 please speak]

"Oh, you beat me for a round yesterday, and today you pressed me to the ground and rubbed me. The most interesting thing is that whether you think 1 is the Miracle Grave Keeper or 2 is the Miracle Grave Keeper, they are all trying to beat me. In the chain, who am I, a magic guard, to provoke? Do you think I am easy to bully? They all want to use me as a resistance."

"Let's talk about it first, I didn't perform any operations last night, because the operation is of little significance, and it may disturb everyone's sight and increase the amount of thinking in vain."

"There are only two possibilities for player No. 4 to die, either by being poisoned or being shot to death. I am definitely inclined to be poisoned by 4 now. After all, witches can poison 4 at any time. But the dream master needs to capture player No. 4 on the first night, so this probability is very small."

"From my point of view, player No. 2 should be a Cupid crow, unless the evil spirit wolf witch No. 8 is in the chain and deliberately reported false information about the identity of Dirty 2, but this possibility is too small, I don't really think about it. And 2 from the police to the police, they have always been in the chain of me, he and I were originally opposites, and it is even more impossible to believe him this round."

"No matter what, let's throw player No. 2 out of the game today. Didn't player No. 7 say that he has poison in his hand and it's useless? I'll see if he can open the poison tomorrow, and then check the information with Langdao, don't you know 4 Was the player number one shot to death or poisoned to death?"

"You don't want to play player No. 4 after taking the skill of 1 and poisoning player No. 2, and then exchanged by me for 2 and 4. Why do you play it for such a small probability event, first play the witch and the dream master. To be clear, to be honest, I'm not that good at killing player number 4..."

This point of pure heart is modest, that is, he is not in the chain in this game. If he is really in the chain, he will definitely exchange 2 and 4. After all, he has opened the perspective, knowing that Xiao Ai will definitely receive skills, and After receiving the skill, Xiao Ai has two choices. One is to stabilize and do not use the poison first, so as not to increase the suspicion of the outside players, and the other is to directly poison Li Yiran.

Both possibilities exist, and it depends on the individual's choice. The aggressive one will directly prescribe the drug, the conservative one will wait a while, and the pure heart will bet that Xiao Ai will directly prescribe the drug. Did it die?

Therefore, it is pure nonsense to say that he is not that good, and he can accurately replace Xiao Ai to death. If he does not even have the ability to predict, he is not worthy of playing games on this field.

The reason why Qing Xin said this is to clear the relationship with Xiao Ai. As long as everyone doesn't fight Xiao Ai and was killed in exchange, it doesn't matter whether Xin Cheng is in the chain or Akai is in the chain, he can't hide it. Especially Xincheng, he can be released directly tomorrow. After all, 2 and 3 are really not like a common side relationship, and it is temporarily impossible to step on each other as identities.

“2号玩家是丘比特乌鸦，3、7当中开一个链子，剩下的那个链子就是10号玩家了吧？昨天2号玩家点了我们3、5、10进链子，现在看来应该是为了掩人耳目，给10做身份，这一点1号玩家确实有先见之明，毕竟她昨天就盘到了我们3、5、10当中或许有链子。”

"As for player No. 12, although I also said that 2 is more like the Miracle Gravekeeper, I think he was just on the point of a bull's horn and didn't turn the corner. Yesterday he could talk about how to play on Christmas Day, but he couldn't afford it. It's a couple card, and today, although the conversation is not good and there are problems with logic, I still think he is a good single person."

"The safest way to play is to play player No. 2 today, and player No. 1 in the evening. When you get up tomorrow, you can see if player No. 7 is poisonous. If not, play 7 directly, and the chain will die. If there is, play it directly. Player No. 3, the chain has also died in love, there is no need to worry about who is in the chain of 10 and 12, anyway, as long as you find one, the other will not be able to escape."

"Okay, that's it, that's all I can talk about today, I'll say it again for the last time, I'm not in the chain, I didn't do anything last night, I believe 1 is the Miracle Grave Keeper, and it must be the 2nd vote today. Player, it's over."

After listening to Qing Xin's speech, Li Yi Ran couldn't help sighing. Although he had expected this attitude, he still held a bit of luck, wondering if Qing Xin would have a brainstorm and started Pan Mi Lan as a Cupid crow. Prove that he thinks too much.

Qingxin's thinking is very clear. First, clear the relationship between himself and Xiao Ai's death, focus on Akai and Xincheng, and then express his attitude. Li Yiran, there is no problem with the overall speech, but the outside positioner should be in the chain, and he will still be able to do it.

After all, what Qingxin said was from his own point of view, just like Xincheng pushed the problem to Akai and Qingxin, and Akai pushed the problem to Xincheng and Qingxin, everyone said Xiao Ai's death It has nothing to do with him, but someone is always lying not.

Chapter [*] I curse myself

[Player No. 6 please speak]

"It's my turn to return the ticket again. To be honest, this ticket is not easy to return. On the surface, player No. 2 can't afford the Miracle Grave Keeper. After all, the information of the evil spirit wolf witch and player No. 11 is mutual. It is confirmed that there is more than 2% certainty that [*] is Cupid's crow, but what about the remaining [*]%? Should we consider it?"

“1、3、5或者1、3、8共边，理论上是完全成立的，尤其是1、3、5这个狼坑，我觉得在预料之中，甚至可以说符合我的心理预期。”

"At the time of the police, player No. 3's speech was a bit like being in a chain, and 2 just suspected that 1 and 3 might be on the same side. As a result, 3 got up and beat 2 to death without giving any chance. At that time, many people thought his behavior and speech were bad, right?"

"When the police came off, he still beat player No. 2 as a Cupid crow, and suggested that player No. 4 and I might be a couple who made their own identity. The logic and perspective were completely different from the normal single card. I felt at the time. 4% of him is a couple who didn’t run away, plus the down card of player No. 1 may also be related to him, so I can accept the logic of 3, 5, and [*] sharing sides.”

Meixin is very entangled right now. She prefers Li Yiran psychologically, because she recognized Li Yiran as the Miracle Grave Keeper yesterday, and the 1st and 3rd sets are on the same side. It is not so coincidental that the witches did it, but what if it was such a coincidence that he shot Xiaoai on the first night, and then shot Xiaoai to death for two consecutive nights?

The most important thing is to eliminate these probabilities and listen to the speeches of Li Yiran and Akai alone. Meixin thinks that Li Yiran's speech is like a miracle tomb keeper, while Akai's speech is like a couple in a chain. Li Yiran is a Cupid crow, so she has to recognize Akai, but she doesn't want to recognize Akai, even though Akai is a wolf like her.

In fact, this is the preconceived notion that influences Meixin's judgment. If Meixin does not speak on the first day, and let Meixin come to the second day, based on the current information, she will naturally feel that Mi Lan is a miracle guardian. Tomb Man, but because her speech on the first day made her subconsciously hostile to Mi Lan and Akai, she didn't want Pan Li Yiran to be a Cupid crow, so she was so entangled.

"I think so, didn't player 2 say that he was scared last night and couldn't give skills, but tonight your skills will definitely be available, right? You still give skills to player 11, and 11 received them. Skills, you are the Miracle Grave Keeper, 11 If you don't receive the skills, you are the Cupid Crow."

"Also, talk to player No. 11. If you receive a skill, directly poison player No. 3 or player 5, or even player No. 8. After all, you have to look at the ticket type. , then it depends on your mood, if there is no 5 in one, you poison the other."

"Anyway, you have received the skill, and you need to use the poison to prove that you have received the skill, because you cannot guarantee that you will live to the next day. Similarly, player No. 8 can test player No. 2 again tonight. There is a magic guard substitution."

"Today I want to play player No. 1 first, but I don't force my vote. After all, my vote is not necessarily correct, and even if I go to player No. 1, it is not in line with most people's ideas. Playing No. 1 is just my personal behavior, you guys If you also think that 1, 3, and 5 are more like common sides, then you will play 1. If you think that the low probability event does not want to play, then you will play No. 2 player, I can understand."

"If player No. 2 is not out of the game, just follow what I said just now and continue to give skills to player No. 11. If you are resisted and pushed out of the game, then forget it. Player No. 7, you said that the down card of 4 has nothing to do with you, your hand There is still a bottle of poison in it, right? Tonight you will poison player No. 3, or player No. 5. In your eyes, 3 and 5 must be chained, right?"

"We wolves still don't kill people at night, so as not to affect the line of sight, but if 2 is voted out, we will kill 1 in the evening. Well, that's it, I've talked about everything that should be talked about. I don't vote today, everyone is free. It's very simple, don't have any psychological pressure, anyway, when we get up tomorrow, we will be able to clear all the third parties out of the game."

Although Meixin tends to believe that Li Yiran is the Miracle Gravekeeper, she is still a little empty in her heart. What if her logic is wrong?So she did not force the vote.

In fact, Meixin thinks that Li Yiran is the Miracle Grave Keeper. A large part of the reason is because Akai, chatting too much seems to be in a chain. It happens that player No. 4 is down, and it may be related to Akai, so she can't bear it. I want to live on the same side of the 1, 3, and 5 plates.

Regardless of whether the logic is right or not, Meixin came up with Mi Lan today, and asked Li Yiran to give her skills at night. If she can't give it, it's not too late to play Li Yiran tomorrow. It's not too late. She can blow herself up and take away Li Yiran and one of the chains at any time. , which is equivalent to cleaning up the third party in one round.

Therefore, even if Mei Xin admits the wrong person, it is not a big problem. As long as she finds the chain and Cupid Crow, she can solve the whole third party by herself, and will not give the third party any chance, even if the good person wins.

"After everyone has finished speaking, they will start voting for exile."

After Mei Xin finished chatting, Judge Lan Lan's voice rang immediately.

All of a sudden, everyone's eyes turned to Li Yiran and Mi Lan. It's hard to say who the two are Cupid Crow. On the surface, it must be Mi Lan's Miracle Grave Keeper who is bigger, but I believe 1, 3 , 5, or 1, 3, and 8 share the same side. Even the sheriff, Mei Xin, tends to the logic of 1, 3, and 5 sharing the same side. You must know that Akai is still her wolf teammate.

But even so, Li Yiran and the others are still a bit difficult to fight against Mi Lan, because Akai must not vote for Mi Lan. He is already tied to Mi Lan. At this time, voting for Mi Lan is equivalent to selling the team. I have to vote for Li Yiran.

And once Akai is forced to vote for Li Yiran, how many outsiders can help Li Yiran vote for Mi Lan?Counting Douzi and player No. 12, plus Xincheng and Charm, plus his own vote, the total is a vote, but there are eleven living people on the field.