Countercurrent 1982

Chapter 1843 Looking Ahead
Those in the real estate business, except for small speculative retail investors, basically have a keen sense of policy as long as they can gain a foothold in this industry.

Cheng Qingyan and Duan Yun started their business in Shenzhen very early, so she naturally understands a truth, that is, to do a good job in the mainland, it is inseparable from the support of the local government. It is precisely because of this that Tianyin Group and SZ City have The relationship between the government has always been very close, and it has never been vague at all.

As for the real estate business, the dependence on policies is particularly strong. Although more and more domestic private enterprises have begun to enter the real estate market in recent years, in the early years, except Tianyin Group, the companies involved in real estate basically They all have state-owned enterprise backgrounds, including Wang Shi's Vanke, Shum Yip Group, and China Merchants Real Estate.

It is precisely because of this that when some private enterprises with no background and little capital invest in the real estate market, they must learn to "follow the trend", and those state-owned enterprises of big dealers are the vane. It is precisely because of this that Hainan and today's The real estate market in Beihai, Guangxi has developed so rapidly. The most important reason is that the banks and state-owned enterprises personally "end up". Without their strong support, this market cannot collapse.

Therefore, in Cheng Qingyan's view, there are four major state-owned banks and many well-known domestic securities companies, which have multiple insurances for the market. Even if the market fluctuates, it is absolutely impossible for the market to collapse. Large state-owned banks, so many state-owned enterprises, and securities companies that have fallen into huge losses will have to go through a process even if they want to leave the market. And if there is any trouble, Cheng Qingyan will definitely have enough time to get out of the whole body.

However, Cheng Qingyan never expected that there would be someone who would forcefully burst this bubble regardless of the life and death of the four major state-owned banks.

In March this year, the First Session of the Eighth National People's Congress was held in BJ
In 1992, more than 10 real estate companies emerged in this small town with only 1000 people. The price of grass stationed in Beihai all over the country reached more than 50. The land that is released can be speculated to more than 100 million yuan per mu, and the land approved by the local government has reached 80 square kilometers a year.

During the survival of the bubble, bank funds led by the four major state-owned banks, state-owned township enterprises and private enterprises' capital poured into Hainan continuously through various channels, with a total of no less than [-] billion.

Almost all developers have become debtors of the bank. Shrewd developers put the money earned from reselling land and off-plan properties into their own pockets, and mortgage the houses that are still on the blueprint to the bank at high prices. Due to speculative demand It has already accounted for more than 70% of the market, and some houses have been sold for several hands even at the blueprint stage. Every player wants to pass the flower in his hand to the next person before the game is over.

And the continuation of this fast-growing real estate bubble will have dire consequences.

First of all, in it, people only see the quick money-making effect brought about by the recording bubble, but not the bubble itself. Once this money-making effect is formed, it will have a huge demonstration effect, not only in Hainan, Beihai, but also in many more places. Local frenzy poured into the field, blowing more bubbles.

From an economic point of view, this demonstration effect also means that credit resources and human resources are rapidly concentrated in the real estate sector.

In 1992, although the People's Bank of China adopted a macro-control policy to strengthen the control of money supply, the investment in various places was rapid, and it was very difficult to control the loan scale. In that year, M0, M1 and M2 increased by 36.4%, 35.9% and 31.1% respectively. , Retail prices increased by 5%, and GDP increased by 14%. The same is true for the whole country. In 1992, fixed asset investment increased by 37% month-on-month, and in the first half of 1993, it was as high as 50.6%.

The biggest evil result of this kind of investment to make huge profits is that it strongly distorts the values ​​of the Chinese people, and they can get something for nothing through opportunism. They can earn more money than hard work, which creates a distorted incentive mechanism in society. Encourage people to invest in the field of speculation with greater enthusiasm, and those who obtain violence do not have a sense of gratitude because they do not come from their own hard work. role is also closely related to this.

If China does not curb the real estate investment boom as soon as possible at this time, the consequences will be disastrous.

But in the face of the bubble and the rapidly growing numbers, vested interest groups enjoy it very much, and local officials also enjoy it very much. Under layers of resistance, to burst the bubble requires not only great wisdom, but also great courage.

Fortunately, the first meeting of the 8th National People's Congress curbed the investment bubble. This move completely exceeded the expectations of most people, including Cheng Qingyan, who has always been in the domestic real estate market with ease.

It can be said that Cheng Qingyan was right in response to the old saying that people are not as good as heaven is. Just when she was full of confidence, the crisis quickly swept across.

Just a few days ago, at this crucial meeting, he focused on the current domestic real estate investment.

What I have to say is, "Many domestic enterprises do not seriously deepen reforms, focus on the transformation of enterprise mechanisms, and focus on management and technological progress. Instead, they expand their investment scale, invest in infrastructure projects, and engage in real estate development. , It will cause heavy losses to the country's economy, and it is difficult for the country to afford such an enterprise.

These remarks contained concerns about the local government's eagerness for quick success and quick benefits in favor of real estate and the development of the real economy. Even in the eyes of later generations, it can be said that it is still full of far-sighted insight and determination to resolutely curb speculation.

It was also after this speech that Wanxin Real Estate Company, the leader in the Beihai real estate market, began to sell the company's high-quality asset projects at low prices, and extended an "olive branch" to its competitor Cheng Qingyan.

However, Cheng Qingyan's strong self-confidence made her lose her keen sense of smell, and she didn't detect the major crisis hidden in it at the first time...

(End of this chapter)