Dong Qiangqiang's Story of Leaving Germany

Chapter 881. 881. Bullish and bearish are two sides of a coin

Facing the request of the student union relayed by Dong Qiangqiang, Lao Bai only said that there was no one on hand: he and Lele were still in BJ, while Lao Ding was busy preparing for the exam, he had organized a group with Dong Yiqing to attend the week-long 54th International Toy Fair in Nuremberg Moreover, on the day of leaving the group, we will pick up the domestic business group that went to Berlin to participate in the Jiangxi JDZ craft ceramics and mahogany furniture exhibition non-stop.Although Lei Lanting didn't have to take the exam, he disappeared, and no one could find him, even He Yangjin didn't know where he was, so he went directly to his mailbox when he called on his mobile phone.The other tour guides signed by Le Bai are also in the same situation. He is also a clever woman who can't cook without rice.Dong Qiangqiang wondered: If no one was free, why did he let him advertise in the first place?Can't help guessing that Lao Bai may want to vent his anger on him.

Lao Bai stood still, and the forum over there was already full of anger, and some people couldn't help but began to scold their mothers, saying that the student union and Dong Qiangqiang would only lie to their compatriots, and they were perfect in playing back and forth.Zheng Chunhua couldn't bear the scolding, so she could only ask Dong Qiangqiang for help again.Dong Qiangqiang discussed with Lao Bai and suggested to arrange the tour of the seven countries until the end of March. If Dong Qiangqiang did not return to China by then, Dong Qiangqiang would take it with him personally. If Le Bai had a tour guide who was free, he would take it with him. Anyway, everyone has to prepare for the exam in February and start in March. There are exams in the middle of the month, and the summer semester has not yet started in late March. The time is just right, and it is stated that this is only one time, and the next one is not an example.Lao Bai couldn't resist Dong Qiangqiang, so he had to agree. Dong Qiangqiang posted the schedule of the Seven Kingdoms Tour on the forum, which calmed down the anger.

Duanmu took the initiative to call Dong Qiangqiang either for financing or investment, but occasionally there were exceptions: opposing Dong Qiangqiang's return to China was one thing, and persuading Dong Qiangqiang to take the CFA exam as soon as possible was another.

"Did you ask about the exemption from the CFA exam at the university exam center before?" Duanmu spoke quickly, "I heard that as long as students can pass the three CFA exams from elementary to advanced, they can get the CFA certificate. The test center of the economics department students can be exempted from the final major exam, students only need to take the other two major exams, of course, the minor exams cannot be waived, does your school also have such a course exemption process?"

"We don't. At present, there is no precedent for Trier University to certify CFA scores. After all, it is a certificate created by Americans. However, the test center is studying it. It is estimated that the results will be available in 1-2 semesters. I'll ask next semester."

"If this is the case, I suggest that you don't care whether the university recognizes it or not, and start taking the exam this year. There is an opportunity to take the CFA Level 11 exam at the end of the year. You can check on the official website in November or December. The first and second exams are full-time exams. Multiple-choice questions, only the third level is multiple-choice questions plus case analysis questions. In short, you are not afraid of being stupid, as long as you stick to the sea of ​​questions tactics, you can pass the test easily. You (take the test) this year (test) level one, next year level two, and the next year level three, this is waiting for you After graduating with a master’s degree, I got my certificate and the time is right. This exam is good everywhere, but the exam fee is expensive, of course, the first level is more expensive, more than 12 Euros, and the second and third levels are about 1000 Euros. Registration is still early. Bird price, it can be cheaper."

"More than 1000 euros for an exam? So expensive?" Dong Qiangqiang couldn't help but click his tongue, "Studying finance really burns money, and I haven't made any money yet. I have to spend so much first."

"Well, expensive is really expensive, but it's really hard. Both Europe and the United States admit it, and I think China will recognize it sooner or later. After you pass the exam, you can print the three letters CFA on your business card. In the future, you will have to go to the United States sooner or later, right? When talking Once you have a German university degree and a CFA, investment institutions don’t dare to underestimate you easily, which is much better than a simple master’s degree. Besides, there are more test sites in Germany, Frankfurt, Hamburg, and Munich can all take the test. In fact, the most important thing It’s because people’s brains are the best when they go to school, so you can pass the exam easily, which saves time. I’m obviously not as efficient as before when I was studying, and I have less time to prepare. There are a lot of old things. There's plenty of time, so listen to me."

Duanmu works in a financial company, since he suggested so, Dong Qiangqiang believes that there must be his reason.

"Then is the pass rate of this exam high? Can the company reimburse you if you haven't passed the exam?" Dong Qiangqiang just paid nearly a thousand euros, "It's really not cheap."

"If you pass the exam, you can apply. If you haven't passed the exam, you can pay by yourself. Otherwise, if you fail the exam every time, the company won't pay you to grandma's house?" Duanmu changed the subject, "By the way, have you read the news? There was an accident with the US space shuttle at the beginning of the month. Do you understand?"

Dong Qiangqiang knew that Duanmu was asking about the disastrous accident in which the American "Columbia" space shuttle disintegrated in the air when returning to the ground on February 2. Reminiscent of the "1" after Duanmu immediately persuaded him to buy the put option of the insurance company, Dong Qiangqiang knew that he Definitely have an idea.

"Do you want to buy put options on U.S. listed companies such as aviation, aerospace, tires, and engines? Many of these (companies) in U.S. stocks are big guys, and there are even many military-industrial complexes. Besides, this kind of accident is neither a financial fraud scandal, nor a terrorist attack like '911', but a tragedy of human spaceflight. It will not have long-term negative effects, and I am afraid it will not be very easy to do. Just like last year, it should be relatively easy to focus on listed companies that have financial problems or business problems."

"I let you guess," Duanmu said with a smile, "Yes, it seems that not only is your sense of investment sharper than last year, but you have also read some things. Wall Street (yours) also has the upper hand."

"I don't know whether the investment sense has improved, but I do have new ideas recently, and I want to hear your opinion."

"Oh, is that right? That's a coincidence, I have a few here, let me tell you first." Duanmu's voice of clicking the mouse and typing on the keyboard came from the phone.

董锵锵也不客气：“2月有两家车企发了新闻稿，一是宝马在厦门举办了BMW Z4双座敞蓬跑车的新车发布会，同时宣布跑车将于展示后第一时间在中国市场销售。二是12号大众宣布2002年大众汽车集团在中国销售量同比增长43％，共售出轿车511000辆。中国成为德国之外大众公司在全球范围内的第二大市场。”

"Then what do you think of these two things?" Duanmu asked, "Any thoughts?"

"Twenty years ago, when other overseas car companies were still looking at China across the sea, Volkswagen had already set up its first factory in China with great ambitions. At that time, although the BJ Jeep, a Sino-US joint venture, had just landed, there was almost no competition. The Volkswagen Santana sedan based on the early version of Passat soon became the image spokesperson of Volkswagen in China, and the latest model is the Santana 20."

"I also know that Santana has different interpretations in different languages, in Portuguese it is 'Virgin Mary', but I think the public is quoting its Spanish meaning, which is 'hurricane in the canyon'. " Duanmu added.

"It has to be said that this name fully reflects the urgency of Volkswagen, which has just entered China, to use this car to blow its own hurricane in China. The fact is also as it wishes. In some years, China The market contributes almost half of its revenue to the public. Today, not only Volkswagen, but BMW and Mercedes-Benz are also speeding up their entry into the Chinese market. If you ask me what I think about these two things, I think this is actually the same thing: as China After joining the WTO, the Chinese market is no longer an unattainable desert oasis for these international giants, but has become a wealth within reach. Of course, not all foreign car companies are optimistic about the Chinese market. There are more and more foreign car companies selling cars in China, but there are very few car companies that can be as bold as Volkswagen and spend so much money to invest in domestic production lines. After seeing the news, I immediately checked Volkswagen. The financial reports for several years, before 2001, were not particularly eye-catching. They can only be said to be quite satisfactory. However, the reason for the rapid growth of last year’s performance, I think, has something to do with the public becoming more and more aware of the Chinese market, and they will care about the local market. What kind of car do people like, what kind of driving experience do they like, what is their preference for power and comfort, and they are even willing to customize cars for the Chinese market. As the old saying goes, it is better to take advantage of the trend than to seek the time. Since Volkswagen is developing better and better in China, then Shouldn't we also take advantage of this shareholder style to go long on the public? Didn't you also say that stock prices are actually investors' expectations of the future development of listed companies?"

Dong Qiangqiang talked eloquently, but Duanmu on the other end of the phone was silent for a long time. Dong Qiangqiang thought he had dropped the line, and after two "hello", Duanmu on the other end of the phone said with emotion: "I didn't expect that we would like to go together this time." Well, in fact, what I wanted to mention to you just now is Volkswagen. I agree with your point of view, and I also think that there is no foreign car company that can compare with the current Volkswagen, because Volkswagen is closely following the ever-growing Chinese market. You I think it’s only been a year and three months since we joined the WTO, and VW can achieve such a performance. Given time, in another five or six years, can you imagine VW’s sales and stock price? I can’t think of it, and I don’t dare to think about it.”

After Duanmu finished expressing his thoughts, Dong Qiangqiang continued: "When I have the idea of ​​going long, I will look for all the information I can find. Volkswagen is really famous, it is a listed company, and it is also a DAX index stock. , industry reports, or special reports, you can find a lot of information, and even many analysis articles written by regulatory agencies for it. But what is interesting is that ordinary Germans do not seem to be particularly optimistic about the development of Volkswagen in China The attitude is far less far-reaching than the investment banks on Wall Street. Of course, I also understand why the Germans are so rational. After all, Volkswagen has entered China since the 80s, and it has been almost 20 years. If you say that Volkswagen will immediately Absolutely no one believes in getting rich. The Germans pay more attention to gradual and steady development. So I think, if the public has no financial fraud, it is definitely worth your investment. Lao Bai and Tong Lele have been in BJ during this time, and I asked them to help I counted them in different locations. Basically, half of the ten cars running on the road are Volkswagen. In addition to Santana, there are also Audi, Passat, Bora, Golf, and POLO. I heard that the Beetle will also start selling in China this year. Yes... Judging from this situation, I believe the data they released is true. Of course, you may also care about indicators such as working capital, inventory, and inventory turnover rate. These are all in the financial report and can be seen by all investors, but What I want to say is that not all investors will have the same understanding and confidence in the public as you and I do, because the public will be closely related to the Chinese market in the next 5 years, 10 years or even longer."

"You reminded me of this. I will look for the company in a while to see if there are any short or long positions in the public. I will tell you after the chat. Do you have any other ideas and discoveries? Tell me."

"In addition to studying Volkswagen's previous history, financial indicators and industry development, I also roughly checked all the bullish options on the market. In comparison, although the prices of Deutsche Bank's options are moderate, they have a short option period. There are only three types: 3 months, 6 months and 9 months. Several cycles of Commerzbank are suitable, the longest is 2 years, but the price is high, and there are few American options, mainly European options. Deutsche Post Banks and KfW have few products in this area, so I haven’t studied them too much. In summary, Citibank has the highest cost performance and a long cycle. In addition, they sell several turbo warrants that are also good. You can take a look when you have time. It’s not a problem for the old man to keep his money. It’s better to take part of it to buy public stocks, another part to buy long options, and use the rest of the money as working capital to cover positions. If you are worried about risks, you can add some put options When hedging, if you don’t get it, you will lose too much instead of going up. You can calculate the specific ratio, aren’t you a math major? This question will definitely not trouble you.”

"That's no problem. I'll calculate the ratio later, and we'll vote on a few proposals." After Duanmu finished speaking, he fell silent again. Just when Dong Qiangqiang thought he had other matters to take the initiative to end the conversation, Duanmu spoke again, with a tone There was a rare vibrato, and Dong Qiangqiang could hear his excitement even through the mobile phone, "Old Dong, we might be able to enjoy the dividends of the times this time, you know that there may be one or two opportunities in a lifetime, seize it Once you achieve financial freedom, you can change your destiny.”

"Giving financial freedom and changing destiny, how can it be as exaggerated as you said?" Dong Qiangqiang said seriously, "Don't get excited, listen to me to continue, what I just said is good for the public, but it is not No profit."

(End of this chapter)