Dong Qiangqiang's Story of Leaving Germany

Chapter 882 882. Optimists move forward forever

"Hey, I'm relieved to hear you say that," Duanmu smirked twice, "I thought you were already on the top, and I didn't listen to other opinions at all, I was only sure it would continue to rise."

"Try me?" Dong Qiangqiang suddenly realized, "Although I am still a novice in investment, I also know that as long as it is a listed company, it will be profitable. For car companies, the disadvantages mainly lie in the safety hazards of technical processes, weak sales and financial fraud. These kinds of things affect investor confidence, don’t they?”

"Don't say it first, see if my guess is right. Are you worried that the strange (service) situation in the South will affect Volkswagen's sales performance in the domestic market this year?"

"Hey, sure!" Dong Qiangqiang boasted, "It's like a roundworm in my stomach."

"It's a disgusting analogy."

"That's not poor, tell me what you think. Are you worried about its impact on mass sales?"

"If that's what you're talking about," Duanmu's tone sounded relaxed, "then I'm not worried."

"Aren't you worried at all?" Dong Qiangqiang couldn't help being curious, "If investors lower their sales expectations for the public because of the (service) situation, then don't ask, the stock price will definitely drop. You know Lao Bai's Travel agencies, right? Originally, the tour groups in the first half of the year were full, but because of the (service) situation, the tour groups were cancelled, and only business groups were left. I am worried that the same thing will happen to the public.”

"I think you made two mistakes."

"Listen carefully." Dong Qiangqiang said modestly.

“First of all, buying a car is not the same thing as traveling abroad. If I were to buy a new car or replace it, I would not see the current situation as a danger to me, but would see it as an opportunity to pick up a bargain. You think, if There are fewer people looking at cars and buying cars than last year. 4S must be under great pressure, because their sales indicators this year must be more than last year. What should they do if there are fewer people coming? They must take various promotional measures, such as reducing prices. Think about it , Volkswagen cars are cheaper and cost 10,000+. Last year, the imported car business was added. There are cars ranging from hundreds of thousands to millions. There are no poor people who can afford these cars, they are all calculating people. , if they get an opportunity for extra discounts, they must be desperate to bargain, make the most of this opportunity. So I think sales may be down for 2-3 months, not shrinking throughout the year, this is not medieval After the Black Death, when the (service) situation is completely lifted, sales will return to normal levels, and it is even possible to exceed the level.”

"There is indeed some truth in what you want to say," Dong Qiangqiang agreed, "Then what is the second mistake?"

"The most common mistake for junior investors is to shoot the arrow first and then draw the target." Duanmu sighed, "Actually, I just wanted to point out that the reason why you are optimistic about Volkswagen lies in the belief that Volkswagen will continue to make breakthroughs in the domestic auto market. ceiling, so as to ensure the growth of its global sales performance. In other words, the invisible premise for you to make Volkswagen’s global performance growth is that foreign markets will not lose the chain. Under this premise, as long as China develops rapidly, Volkswagen’s performance will undoubtedly rise. , but don’t forget that the domestic market is only an inconspicuous part of the big cake of Volkswagen’s global market, and the bulk of Volkswagen’s performance is still in overseas markets. In 2001, when the global economic development slowed down, Volkswagen’s global sales volume was 508 million units, an increase of only 2000% from 506 million units in 0.4. In 2002, as you said, sales in China increased by 43% year-on-year, but global sales were only 498.4 million units, nearly 2001 units less than in 10 .”

Hearing Duanmu's familiarity with these figures, Dong Qiangqiang immediately knew that he had done his homework, but he was still puzzled: "Since you already knew these, why did you echo what I said just now? Didn't you also say 'There is no one at present? Foreign car companies can compare with the current Volkswagen, because Volkswagen is closely following the ever-growing Chinese market, "in time, in five or six years, can you imagine Volkswagen's sales and stock price" and other words? Can you just tell me exactly what you think?"

"Because you are right. Since entering the Chinese market in 1985, Volkswagen has successively established 5 joint ventures in Shanghai, Changchun and other places, and the year-on-year growth rate of 43% proves that Volkswagen's development plan in China is pragmatic and correct. Yes, it also shows that the Chinese market is an emerging market that is growing rapidly. I also mentioned to you before that many US and German stocks are undervalued or even seriously undervalued, and it is really worth a try.”

Dong Qiangqiang understood this at once: "I understand. What you agree with is that Volkswagen can create more room for growth for itself in the domestic market. What you disagree with is my assumption, because you think there is growth in Volkswagen's international market. The data in 2002 shows the possibility of slowing down or even regressing, and the unfavorable factors in the international market are the real bad news that threatens the public, is that right?"

"Hey, your listening skills have improved very fast now." Duanmu praised, "Not bad, a child can be taught."

"Hurry up and get down to business, so I can check and make up for gaps and improve business." Dong Qiangqiang said seriously.

Duanmu cleared his throat: "You're right. As the largest car manufacturer in Europe, Volkswagen has faced a rare critical moment in its history since the first half of 2002. You can see this from the stock price of its common stock. Come out. After April 2002, the stock price has been falling all the way. By this month, it has fallen to almost 4 euros per share. The decline in delivery volume seems to continue unabated. Investors believe that this may be related to the lack of orders in the international market, while Insufficient orders are closely related to the international pricing and technological process of Volkswagen’s different models. Second, the United States is the main overseas market for all European automakers. 35% to 20% of Germany’s cars are sold to the United States every year. Volkswagen ranks in the top three, and the bulk of corporate profits will naturally come from there. As the exchange rate of the US dollar against the euro continues to fall, the price of Volkswagen's exported cars will be raised, and profits will decrease, and the company converts the earned US dollars into When the euro is used, profits will shrink sharply. This is the profit loss caused by exchange rate fluctuations to export companies. This loss may be hundreds of millions or billions of euros. Of course, not only Volkswagen, but also other European automakers have the same In addition, the rise in international crude oil prices you just mentioned will also bring fluctuations in its profits. Of course, the parameter of oil prices is really difficult to evaluate. In addition, it has not disclosed its full-year profit target for 40. It’s not bad, but for investors, there is indeed a high risk of going long at this time.”

"I understand when you say that. It's no wonder that in the analysis articles I read before, German investment institutions did not have a particularly optimistic attitude towards Volkswagen's performance in the past two years. It turns out that is the case." Dong Qiangqiang suddenly realized, "I used to I feel that exchange rate fluctuation is a macro issue that is only considered at the national level, and has nothing to do with small people like us. I didn’t expect it to have such a close relationship with investment, so I learned.”

"That's why I agree with what you said. It was really not easy for Volkswagen to achieve such excellent results in the domestic market last year. It may have found the golden key."

"Then let me summarize your point of view: In addition to sluggish market demand and exchange rate fluctuations, the factors that you think may affect the sales performance of VW in the international market also include the risk of rising international crude oil prices. If we are long VW, we actually have to What is judged is whether Volkswagen’s sales in the Chinese market in 2003 will be better than last year, and at the same time, the performance growth rate (in the Chinese market) can make up for the possible decrease in sales revenue in the international market, that is, the number of cars it sells in the international market will be reduced. Only by crushing the number of cars sold in the Chinese market can a substantial increase in global sales and a rise in stock prices be achieved.”

"Yes."

"Then can you tell me that you are more inclined to be bullish or bearish now? I feel that you are not optimistic about the public." Dong Qiangqiang suddenly had a strong idea of ​​finding out.

"If you read too much information, you may fall into a pessimistic or overly calm mood. This may not necessarily be a good thing for investment, and you may ignore or avoid some valuable information, so we We all need to listen to different ideas, and diverse voices will help us improve our investment logic, and if our views on anything are exactly the same before we have fully discussed it, it is actually not good.”

"I have a question. What you can get is always historical data. If you predict the future based on historical data, it is still a brainstorming. The person who shoots is optimistic, and the prediction result is positive. The person who shoots is pessimistic, and the forecast is conservative. No matter how logical and data-supported any prediction is, it is still dominated by the subjective desire of the predictor." Dong Qiangqiang said, "It feels similar to buying a lottery ticket, but I have never heard of a lottery winner who used historical data to predict future winning numbers. of."

"Of course, no matter how rigorous the prediction is, it's not a natural science, it's just a methodology. I don't reject and resist being a public, but we all need to collect more data. Fully demonstrate, make bold predictions, and leave the rest to fate .Now, since we’ve all come to this point, why don’t we take out all the goods we have, keep the good ones, and sell the bad ones, and then calculate last year’s accounts, if there is a profit, then Dividends, I also want to get out the investment plan as soon as possible, and if I really invest in the public, there will be no delay. You enter the account now, and we will go through it one by one."

"You forgot that I don't have internet here," Dong Qiangqiang said with a wry smile, "But I can send you the stock codes of those bullish options by SMS."

"It's a waste of time for you to have no internet. Doesn't the old lady let you install the net?" Duanmu complained. It’s all right to pay her some money, or give her delicious food every day to make her happy, and the Germans are the same.”

"Let's talk about the Internet thing later, why do you think about dividends?"

Duanmu did mention dividends with Dong Qiangqiang before, and Dong Qiangqiang thought it was a joke made by Duanmu.

Duanmu laughed, and replied: "I always said that I want to pay dividends. I was under a lot of pressure before, and I was always worried that I would not be able to complete the gambling with Anderson. Later, the gambling agreement was cancelled, and the company's income was not bad. Then we both worked hard for a year. Yes, it’s only natural to improve our lives, after all, we didn’t get a penny of salary last year, and of course we still don’t get paid this year.”

　Note: Public stock is divided into common stock and preferred stock. The dual-share system is a tradition of many large German companies. The stock prices and rights of the two are different.Generally speaking, preferred stock is cheap, has no voting rights, and pays a large dividend.Common shares are more expensive, have voting rights, and pay less dividends.German companies generally control the management of the company by holding more common shares, but the dual-share structure has flaws. After investors from other countries took advantage of the flaws for arbitrage many times, some large German companies abolished preferred shares and only retained common stock.

　　
　
(End of this chapter)