Xinshun 1730

Chapter 627 The result of speculation

Chapter 627 The result of speculation

"reason?"

Elizabeth smiled, and asked with a smile: "What is reason?"

Hannibal recalled what Liu Yu said, and tried to translate the sentence to the original flavor as much as possible.

"Assess your opponent, scold those who are weak-mouthed, fight those who are weak, and don't provoke those who cannot be beaten. When it is time to give up, give up and pay."

This clearly explained some of the true meaning of diplomacy at this time. Elizabeth trusted Hannibal very much, so she asked, "Do you think Dashun is strong enough?"

Hannibal, who has lived in Dashun for more than ten years since he was captured, still remembers Russia when Petersburg was first built more than ten years ago.

Even though some progress has been seen in the past few days, the situation of the Russian Army has been chaotic for more than ten years, and the overall characteristics should remain unchanged.

Thinking about the tactical system and characteristics of the Dashun military reform, Hannibal didn't want to admit it, but he had to tell the truth.

"Your Majesty, Dashun's army tactical system seems to be a style chosen specifically to restrain us."

"Quick formation changes, high mobility, excellent battalion formation transformation... The imaginary enemy of this tactic is an enemy with a large number of irregular cavalry."

He smiled helplessly.

"...that is, us."

"A large number of Cossacks and Torghut cavalry archers are the characteristics of our army. The tactical system of the Dashun Army seems to be designed to restrain us."

"Their speed of change and the integration of lighter-weight field guns can enable them to maintain efficient killing and formation integrity when facing a large number of irregular cavalry on the opposite side in field battles."

"If there is a war between us and China, the scale of the war, in view of the logistical pressure, is at the level of thousands of people. In the battle of thousands of people, their high mobility, extremely fast formation speed, and light artillery coordination Wait, completely restrain us."

"Considering factors such as logistics and taxes, we are even further behind."

After all, he graduated from a formal French military academy, and he had also participated in actual combat in the Quadruple Alliance War. He could almost see the characteristics of the Dashun Army's tactical system at a glance.

This tactical system is invincible in Europe, with Dashun's size and population.

It is placed in Asia because Liu Yu is sure that in Asia, including India, there will be no large-scale field battles with a scale of more than 10 people for at least a few decades.

Although in Hannibal's view, it seems that the tactical system of the Dashun Army after the reform is to restrain opponents with a large number of irregular cavalry in Central Asia or Russia.

But in fact, this is really not tailor-made to restrain Central Asia or Russia, but to imitate some system tactics after the military reform of the law, and the "prophets" generally saw various problems in the line array in the Seven Years War, especially It is a reflection on the situation in which Prussia, which attached great importance to the rate of fire and the diagonal line, was defeated several times by the irregular cavalry of the Cossacks and Turghuts.

The entire Army tactical system revolves around three things.

Boring machine technology made field guns lighter.

Company-scale field battle formations can be completed within 3 minutes.

The front row of skirmishers cooperates with the main horizontal team behind.

This is only the direction of the future, not for the tide of irregular cavalry in Russia.

From the perspective of the tactical system, it is beyond the times, and naturally surpasses the current Russian army.

Elizabeth cast her eyes on Bestuyev and asked sincerely: "In my father's time, you participated in the signing of many treaties and dealt with the monarchs of various countries. In your opinion, what is this Chinese Marquis? What do you mean?"

She didn't care at all and told Bestuyev clearly that Liu Yu had contributed a lot in this coup, and it was even a timely help.

This is no secret, even if someone says no, no, coincidence, no one will believe it.

Moreover, the intervention of foreign powers is not considered a major event.A large number of kings in Europe who can't speak their own languages, Elizabeth can at least speak Russian.

Although Bestuyev didn't like Hannibal who studied in France very much, he was still convinced of the first-hand information Hannibal got in Dashun.

During the battle to pacify Junggar, some former special envoys also noticed the changes in Dashun's tactical system. In fact, the Russian Army has long felt the restraint of this tactic.

Otherwise, it would be impossible to make such a big concession on the boundary contract issue, because it is really impossible to win.

But the problem is, Liu Yu said "be rational", which is really a simple requirement.

Could it be that he felt that Russia might produce a tsar who was completely irrational, even mentally ill, and who didn't pay attention to Russia's interests at all?
He had never met Peter III who ordered to withdraw his troops after the collapse of Prussia, so he naturally felt that the word "rationality" that Liu Yu said was a bit nonsense.

Bestuyev thought for a long time before replying, "Your Majesty, this matter needs to be looked at separately."

"Maintaining peace between China and Russia is actually not the same thing as inciting Russia to expand westward."

"Instigating Russia's westward expansion can maintain the peace between China and Russia. But maintaining the peace between China and Russia does not require instigating Russia's westward expansion."

"In this matter, I think Liu Yu's focus is to instigate Russia to move westward, not to maintain peace between China and Russia."

"But... there is no reason? Europe is too far away from Dashun, and Russia's westward advance has no effect on Dashun. Dashun is not France, and they will not get any benefits at all."

Bestuyev vaguely felt that the reason why Liu Yu supported the coup was not for "China and Russia's mutual non-aggression", but for "letting Russia advance westward".

This seems to be the same thing, but when you think about it carefully, it is clearly two things.

If it is to support Russia's westward expansion, then it makes sense why Liu Yu is keen to overthrow the German faction in power.

But when this problem is thought through clearly, new problems also arise.

What is the benefit of Russia's westward advance to Dashun?
After jumping out of the "seemingly reasonable" trap of thinking that going west is for the sake of peace in the East, this matter has become more complicated and confusing.

At the beginning of the Sino-French alliance, everyone believed that it was Dashun's attempt to form an anti-Russian alliance of China, France, Turkey, and Switzerland with France as the axis.

But thinking about it now, this seems a little unreasonable.Although Dashun has opened up a lot on the issue of the boundary agreement, it is just some old land of the Junggar tribe, and it doesn't even involve the fur area that the Russians value.

Sweden has gone to war against Russia. Normally, if Dashun wants to help Sweden and weaken Russia, it should support the coup.

Create chaos with a coup d'état.

But the problem is that the direction of Dashun's coup d'etat is very strange, and it is not aimed at creating chaos at all.

It was because I was afraid that there would be chaos in Russia. From detainment, surveillance to enthronement ceremony, one-stop service. For Russia, the whole coup not only did not cause chaos, but even smoothed out the previous chaos.

The marquis of Dashun even thought of one-stop service. Didn’t he know that the coup d’état was “messy” and even a civil war between the new party, the old party, the German party, and the Russian orthodox faction would be considered to weaken Russia?
This coup itself also showed that Dashun didn't care about Russia at all, and didn't even think Russia was a threat.

Bestuyev thought hard for a long time, but he still couldn't figure out what benefits Dashun wanted a "strong, westward, stable, and rational" Russia.
Simply to help France?
Or, was the coup a request from the Palace of Versailles?

After mentioning this possibility, Hannibal immediately denied it.

"Your Majesty, in fact, not long after I was captured, more than ten years ago, he was already thinking about this coup. At that time, there was no official ambassador between France and China."

"At that time, he mentioned your safety, His Majesty, and used the possibility of you being imprisoned in the monastery to force me to cooperate. He seemed to have been planning for this coup for a long time, and even... even I suspect that in Austell When Earl Man went to the capital to negotiate, he was thinking about visiting Europe and the coup."

"This matter has absolutely nothing to do with the Palace of Versailles. Moreover, you can't understand China's pride, how could they choose to listen to the Palace of Versailles? It is even more impossible for Liu Yu himself to have any private contact with the Palace of Versailles."

After denying that this was a French conspiracy, things got even weirder.

Bestuyev thought hard and couldn't figure it out.

Elizabeth also frowned. She believed what Hannibal said, that is to say, as early as more than ten years ago, Liu Yu guessed that the Russian political situation might fall into chaos?It is conceivable to fall into chaos, but if the coup d'etat was considered at that time, it would be a bit too scary.

Moreover, if the coup d'état and the smooth flow of the coup d'état were taken into consideration at that time, wouldn't that just prove Bestuyev's conjecture?Liu Yu never regarded Russia as a threat from the very beginning, so his high-sounding reason of "for the sake of peace between China and Russia" is completely untenable.

If it is for peace, it should be to let Russia continue to be chaotic and rotten. One is strong and the other is weak. The strong have peace at any time, and they have the right to not want peace at any time.

Westward advance... Russia's westward advance, what good is it for Dashun?
Bestuyev reviewed the known information about China in his mind, considered Liu Yu's diplomatic style, and vaguely grasped some key points.

"Your Majesty, if this matter has nothing to do with the Palace of Versailles, or if, as Lieutenant General Hannibal said, the Chinese side considered the issue of Russia's westward advance more than ten years ago, it is a bit delicate."

"Let's recall. The time of the first Sino-Russian war was the eve of the outbreak of the War of Polish Succession and the opportunity of Peter the Great's death. Dashun took advantage of Russia's internal chaos and the issue of Polish succession to resolve the Eastern Front through the war." boundary."

"Afterwards, taking advantage of the war of Polish succession and the forthcoming outbreak of the Fourth Russo-Turkish War, the division of the Mongols in Junggar was pacified."

"Then, against the backdrop of the height of the fourth Russo-Turkish war, the imminence of the Swedes, and the apparent war of the Austrian succession, we were forced to accept the Western Front."

"Actually, the only war we really broke out with China was the one more than ten years ago. The troops invested by both sides were at the level of thousands of people. And the rest, China relied on diplomatic means and took advantage of the chaos in Europe to force We agreed to their bounds request."

"That is to say, when there is a war in Europe, Dashun will also take advantage of the situation to expand. After the war in Europe is over, Dashun will stop."

"Can we think that China will have a large-scale military operation in its other strategic directions? Therefore, we hope to resolve the contradictions and differences between China and Russia as soon as possible, so that we can enter the European battlefield without any worries, And they take the opportunity to launch a large-scale war in the remaining strategic directions?"

"Moreover, the enemy in this strategic direction may use us to pose threats and pressures to China? For example, through financial aid and gold coin contracts for us."

"After all, only we have the ability to pose a substantial threat to China's surrounding areas."

"Then, combined with his move to come to Petersburg to plan a coup this time, we can clear up the fog and draw the following conclusions."

"First, the enemy country in his next strategic direction is a European country and has money. They can use financial support to make China feel threatened by us."

"Two, this country is now our ally."

"Third, this country is the enemy of France, because our foreign policy is likely to turn pro-French, which will cause us to break our alliance with the country that is about to go to war and become an enemy."

"Fourth, this country has a conflict of interest with Dashun, and at least to some extent is a neighboring country."

(End of this chapter)

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