Xinshun 1730

Chapter 777 The Difficult First Step
The people below are chattering, discussing seriously how much annual interest is the bottom line in their hearts.

It's quiet above, Liu Yu really has a clear number in his heart, but he doesn't know whether these businessmen are willing to invest.

Talking about an idea that sounds magical and realistic, is it possible to let the Dutch pay for Dashun's navy and marines?

It is possible, not only possible, but very probable.

A few years ago, Liu Yu visited Europe. There is a lot of capital in Europe, but now there is no room for investment.

Otherwise, it would be impossible for two or three big bubbles to burst out in 20 years. There is really too much money to spend, but the huge economic growth point of the industrial revolution has not yet exploded.

Once the currency is over-issued and there is no new economic growth point, it is easy to have bubbles and investment mania, or hype for some weird things.Whether it is tulips, South Sea Company stock, or Mississippi gold, the same is true.

In the past 30 to [-] years, is there any new profit growth point in Europe?
It should be said that there is no such thing.

Not only did it not, it even went backwards.

According to Liu Yu's estimate, if Dashun wants to borrow national debt in the Netherlands, it only needs to pay an annual interest of about 6% to borrow.

If you repay the money on time and improve your credit rating, within ten years, it is completely possible to drop it to about 5% or 4%.

However, it is wrong to consider the idea of ​​attracting Dutch financial capital based on the interest of borrowing national debt.

The Dutch financial capital had to be given enough benefits to allow them to control the parliament, complete lobbying, and thus invest in Dashun's "East India Company."

Liu Yu believes that the annual interest rate should be above 8%.

At present, the national debt of European countries has the highest interest rate, that is, Russia.But Russia's size is really small, and it doesn't cost that much money.

There is nowhere to go for a lot of spare money, and the annual interest rate of 8% is enough for the Dutch financial capital to sell their motherland.

The Dutch East India Company created a very good foundation for Dashun in the Netherlands.

That is, the accounts are only published once every ten years, the 17-member board of directors monopolizes the power, and the differences between the provincial chambers of commerce can be temporarily shelved in the face of unified interests.

These foundations determine that Dashun can gain control of the company.

As long as Dashun promises to pay dividends with an annual interest rate of at least 8%, or even 10%.But the premise is that Dashun wants to have absolute control over the board of directors, and Dutch financial capital can agree.

10% annual interest is really quite high in the Netherlands.

Dashun has no shortage of capital. For a stall as big as Nanyang, in fact, a share capital of 3000 to 3000 million taels of silver is enough.With [-] million taels of silver, Dashun didn't need to go to the Netherlands to borrow money.

However, Dashun couldn't eat alone, so he could only bring in the Dutchman.

After adding the Dutch, this is magic realism: using Dutch money to rule the former colonies of the Netherlands.

An annual interest rate of around 8%, or a little higher, is no problem in the Netherlands.

The problem is Dashun's side.

Liu Yu doubts whether the 8% annual interest rate is enough to convince the business class in Dashun?
In the early stage, the profit will not be too high. After estimation, and the original market size of the Dutch East India Company, as well as the expenses of the Nanyang garrison, land reform, and war.

At least within three to five years, it is actually a level of 12% or 13%.

And since it is necessary to consider joining forces with the Netherlands and France in the future to abolish Britain's command of the sea and the "Navigation Regulations", warships must also be built.

At least one battleship and two cruisers have to be allocated from profits every year.

Of course, if you win the battle in the future and completely control the initiative of maritime trade, of course, the rate of return will not be as low as 12%.

The problem is that the merchant class can only look at it for three to five years at most, which is considered far-sighted.The hype is so bad, if they don't see money within three to five years, most of them will choose to withdraw their capital.

I can't say enough now, the negotiation with the Netherlands this year is definitely going to be useless, and it will have to be delayed until next year.

If you inject capital now, you will not get the annual interest until at least next year's Chinese New Year.There are also a series of military operations and political activities, which also need to be deducted from the company's capital.

I can't say enough, Liu Yu reserved some leeway, and that's basically it.

The main thing is the early stage. The trade between Britain, France, Switzerland, Portugal and other countries cannot be stopped.Porcelain, silk, etc., cannot be monopolized exclusively, which also prevents profits from being so high.

Although there are various difficulties, there are also good aspects.That is, although the Portuguese took away the spice seeds and planted them in Brazil, the labor cost and the environment there are not enough to shake the spice status in Southeast Asia for the time being.

If you want to fight a monopoly price war, you can put it aside for a while and talk about it later.

As for India, Liu Yu persuaded the emperor to be Di Dingyin from India.

Sending troops in the direction of India is about 5000 people, so there is no rush and the cost is not very high.The emperor also didn't want India's diding silver to let the merchant class intervene, so the cost can be ignored.

For the time being, what Dashun can take over is actually the entire legacy of the Dutch East India Company.Basically, as much as the annual profit of the Dutch East India Company, Dashun will only get that much for the time being.

Of course, a bond with 800 million taels of silver capital and 12 times leverage, such a large company, still has considerable profits.In addition, Dashun can abolish some of the original Dutch company's wonderful system, and there is no need to worry about the lack of silver currency to buy Dashun's goods. As long as it survives the first few years with the lowest profit, it will definitely make a lot of money in the future.

This is the exact opposite of the Dutch East India Company.

The Dutch East India Company, in the first few years, easily returned 50%.Thus, the habit of investing in the Netherlands has been formed.

However, this mission of changing social consciousness has been accomplished many years ago by the Japan-trading monopoly.The wealthy businessmen of Songjiang Mansion are now also willing to invest their money in bonds.

The scale of the Japan-trading company is not very large, but it has a huge impact.What Liu Yu wants mainly is this kind of influence to change social consciousness.

As a foreshadowing, now it seems that it is very meaningful.

It is impossible for Dashun to adopt the model of the Anglo-Dutch East India Company, and the imperial court has to control the board of directors, which also involves the imperial court's credibility.

So Liu Yu can neither say anything that is absolutely correct such as "willing to gamble and admit defeat, and there is no way to make a profit without losing money in business".

It is also not possible to give a rate of return that is too high, enough to lure everyone and make everyone invest one after another.

France set up a Mississippi company, which promised a high rate of return.But after the bubble burst, the credibility of the French government fell for 20 years, and it is not easy to borrow money now.

Based on the reputation Liu Yu has accumulated in the merchant class over the years, in fact, if he wants to play tricks such as beating drums to spread flowers and lure with high returns, he can still get 8000 to [-] million taels.If you really want to learn from John Law, be ruthless, create a Nanyang myth similar to the Mississippi myth, engage in fraudulent fundraising, and get one or two billion taels.

However, as a feudal imperial country, Dashun, the inertia accumulated in 2000, the trust of businessmen, and the reputation among the emerging classes cultivated in nearly 20 years, Liu Yu thinks it is worth more than 8000 to [-] million taels.

So he can only be cautious, even if he feels in his heart that if he does it well, he may not be unable to achieve 15% annual interest.

But he dared not say it.

Because I can't be very sure, I dare not say 100% sure.

When the court is over, some things can't be said nonsense.

Now I can only give a minimum value, and then those who wish to take the bait.

The minimum value is basically guaranteed, and there is no problem with this.

The annual interest rate in Europe is enough to make financiers and bankers crazily inject capital. The main reason why Liu Yu has no idea on Dashun's side is the land value on Dashun's side.

Tenants generally pay 50% of the land rent, and Dashun has a damn poll tax apportioned into the land tax. Abolishing the poll tax means that it must be apportioned according to the land.

Dashun’s tax rate is really not high. With nearly one billion mu of land, the tax rate is 2000 million a year.

But no one has counted how much the bottom layer was charged.

The poll tax is abolished, and the grassroots negotiations do not assign land according to the head.

Land prices have dropped in recent years.

It is normal for small farmers to go bankrupt.

The land price has been lowered, and the standard rent rate for tenants is 50%. Dashun never has to worry about sheep cannibalizing people, because the British landlords took back the land because the rent was too low. Too likely sheep cannibalism.

The feudal traditional land rent in the UK is indeed not high.

Capitalist land rent is indeed high.

Of course, landowners are willing to charge capitalist land rent for their land and give up the feudal "ancestral law".

In the feudal tradition of the United Kingdom, the lease period is often three generations.

A minimum of 21 years and a maximum of 99 years are basically permanent tenancy.And the land rent is much lower than that of Dashun.

In 99, four or five hundred years ago, nothing seemed to have changed.But in this day and age, no one knows how the prices rose in 500. According to the land rent standard before 99, landowners can no longer maintain the dignity of nobles.

The average rent for an acre of land in this year and month is 20pence.

An acre is about 6 acres of land.

240 pence is one pound, three taels of silver, that is, the rent of an acre of land is about three taels of silver.

The average rent for two mu of land is only one penny.

Dashun definitely doesn't have such a low land rent. You want to rent an acre of land for half a penny?Added a zero, it's almost the same.

Judging from the land deeds in the Qianlong period of the Qing Dynasty, the price of one mu of land in the richest Suzhou Prefecture was 12 taels of silver per mu when rice prices were high; when rice prices were normal, it was 4 taels of silver.

Land rent is eight or nine.

That is to say, the land rent of this land is guaranteed to receive eight Dou, and the land price is 12 taels of silver per mu in the few years when the price of rice has skyrocketed.But then it dropped to 4 taels of silver.

The normal price of rice is one tael of silver per stone of rice, but Badou would have to have six or seven taels of silver.

This was when the price of rice was soaring, but in fact, the land in Shanghai County was only two or three taels of silver in a normal year, because the rent collector could only collect five dou.

History has proved that the land price will drop if the land is divided into acres, because labor, corvee, and apportionment are not based on head-to-head land, then small farmers are more likely to go bankrupt and land prices will also fall.

The land that can receive five buckets of rent is two taels of silver per mu.

To say the least, you can only rent for five dollars, and you can only sell it for four renminbi.

What is the rate of return this year?

40%.

It is possible to catch up with the disaster year a little bit, and the price of rice will rise, and the rate of return may be as high as 100% per annum.

Now the question is, Dashun's national conditions, its inertia, and the degree of land value preservation...

I have 1 taels of silver. Is it to buy land?
Or invest in risky LLC volatile stocks?

This is a choice that any fool knows.

Therefore, whether it is Dashun or Ming Dynasty, the reason why it is impossible to borrow national debts in the country, and cannot follow the model of Western European banks and national debts is very simple.

Your court is incompetent, neither can you give 50% annual interest, nor can you let the tillers have their land and let the rent drop.

If the imperial court can give a 50% annual interest rate and double the national debt in two years, do you think anyone will buy it?
But the imperial court can't pull gold and silver, how can it be possible to give a high interest rate of 50% annual interest?

Or even according to the utopian ideas of the ancient Confucianism, if everyone has a land, ten taxes, and a well field system, even if the annual interest rate of the national debt is 10%, do you think anyone will buy it?
However, according to Yan Li’s ancient Confucian school, after 30 years of lease, the land will be owned by the tenants, which is similar to the 30-year installment redemption system, and a peaceful transition... It’s not even a dream, it’s just a delusion.

The same is true for trade and investment.

In the Netherlands, with an annual interest rate of 5%, you can get a loan as long as you have enough credit; an annual interest rate of 8% can allow capital to overwhelm the threshold for stock offerings; an annual interest rate of 15% can allow you to directly distribute the company’s assets 20 times bonds.

In Dashun, the capital tilted its head to look, then turned around and went to stockpile land.

The 5% annual interest is also worthy of the capital investment of the Celestial Dynasty?

So what is the cancer that hinders Dashun?

It has nothing to do with personal morality, nothing to do with landowners being good or bad.

What is it that compels Liu Yu to cooperate with the Dutch who slaughtered Taiwan and Penghu, to find a foreign market, and to despair of the narrowness of the domestic market?What is it that compels Liu Yu to dare not report the minimum annual interest rate to these businessmen, but to report an extra one or two percentage points at the risk of losing their reputation?
Liu Yu was very clear in his heart.

But he couldn't solve it, and he didn't dare to solve it.

(End of this chapter)