Set sail1992

When Zhang Qihang hurried to Tang Changhao's office, he was a little surprised to find that besides Tang Changhao, Comrade Song Yuehua was also there.

Seeing Zhang Qihang's slightly surprised expression, Comrade Tang Changhao didn't say anything, and asked directly: "Xiao Zhang, Comrade Yuehua said that you think there will be a large-scale economic crisis caused by the real estate problem in the United States?"

It turned out to be for this matter...

Zhang Qihang understood why Tang Changhao called himself over in such a hurry. In the current era of highly globalized economy, if there is really a large-scale economic crisis starting from the American real estate market, how could Huaxia not be affected?Lu Province, as a coastal province with a very developed foreign trade economy, will inevitably suffer a lot of impact. Whether it is to effectively deal with the impact of the economic crisis or ensure the economic development of the province, Tang Changhao is doomed to pay close attention to this matter. Before that, Tang Changhao must listen to Zhang Qihang's explanation with his own ears, and carefully analyze whether what he said is right or not. After all, once he makes a decision, tens of millions of people in the province will be affected.

He said calmly: "Leader, let me explain. It is not a large-scale economic crisis caused by the real estate issue. My point of view is that this is an economic crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage market in the United States, which will eventually have a huge impact on the global economy. The impact of this economic crisis and its impact on the global economy will be unprecedented." After finishing speaking, he said seriously: "Even China will suffer a lot."

Hearing Zhang Qihang's words, Tang Changhao's expression also became serious. He glanced at Comrade Song Yuehua, and said slowly to Zhang Qihang: "How big do you think the impact of this crisis is? Well...how does it compare with the Asian financial crisis in 97?"

"In my opinion, this crisis has a much greater impact on us than the Asian financial crisis that year," Zhang Qihang said with a serious expression. "If I want to make an analogy, I think it is roughly no less than the impact of the oil crisis in the 70s on the whole world."

Zhang Qihang actually thinks that the severity of the economic crisis in the United States is not only greater than that of the Asian financial crisis, but even comparable to the oil crisis in the 70s?
Comrades Tang Changhao and Song Yuehua frowned at the same time.

The two didn't have any personal feelings about the oil crisis in the 70s. After all, they were still young at that time, and China was still blocked by developed countries in Europe and America at that time.

It was only after Tang Changhao and Song Yuehua took up leadership positions that they gradually understood the impact and impact of the oil crisis on the whole world—the entire European and American economies fell into a 10-year low-density economy.

Compared with the oil crisis in the 70s, the two had a deeper understanding and insight into the Asian financial crisis. After all, it happened around China. Looking at the heavy losses in Hong Kong Island, South Korea, Russia, the Philippines, Malaysia and other countries in the economic crisis that swept across most of Asia, which leading cadres are not highly vigilant about the economic crisis?
But now, Zhang Qihang actually said that a bigger economic crisis has emerged...

Taking a breath, Tang Changhao's expression was extremely serious: "Xiao Zhang, tell me the basis for your judgment."

Song Yuehua also pursed her lips with the same serious expression.

The two of them must attach great importance to it and treat it with caution. If Zhang Qihang hadn’t predicted that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two major American mortgage finance companies, would suffer big losses in the first half of the year, it would be fine. It would be difficult to say that Zhang Qihang was just guessing.

"Okay, two leaders, let me start from the beginning?"

Seeing Tang Changhao and Song Yuehua nodding, Zhang Qihang said: "First of all, let's start with mortgages. Mortgages are very simple. Now they have become the first choice for ordinary people to buy a house. I won't explain too much. I will focus on subprime mortgages.

Since the end of the 80s, the American economy has ushered in a wave of take-off, and housing prices in the United States have also been rising. Under such circumstances, many people want to invest in real estate and make money through the appreciation of real estate. Once encountering divorce, unemployment, etc., it is easy for individuals to lose the source of salary and fail to repay the loan on schedule, which will lead to personal bankruptcy, which also leads to a considerable number of people with poor personal credit in American society. "

"Ah."

Tang Changhao and Song Yuehua agreed together, expressing their understanding.

Zhang Qihang went on to explain: "These people with poor personal credit are usually low-income earners, with unstable income or even no income at all. Their debt repayment ability is relatively low, and their personal credit rating is not high. They are defined as subprime credit borrowers in the personal credit evaluation system of the United States.

As I said earlier, the American economy has experienced more than 10 years of prosperity, and real estate has also increased in value all the way. It is an excellent channel for personal investment. As a result, in addition to regular personal housing mortgage loans for high-quality customers, banks have also launched subprime housing mortgage loans specifically for these subprime credit borrowers.

The bank knows and understands the personal credit status of these subprime credit borrowers, so although the subprime housing mortgage loan is launched for this group, the interest is much higher than the conventional personal housing mortgage loan..."

"Wait a minute," Song Yuehua suddenly interrupted Zhang Qihang, and said, "Xiao Zhang, since you said that these people are low-income, unstable or even no-income low-personal credit groups, why do American banks still provide them with loans? The banks are not afraid that the money lent to them will not be recovered?

According to normal logic, the risk of lending money to such a group is much greater than the risk of lending to a group with good credit. They can easily break the loan. Isn't this a bad debt for the bank? "

Tang Changhao nodded slightly, with anticipation in his eyes. Obviously, he was also very curious about this question.

"Banks are really not afraid, there are two reasons," Zhang Qihang said with a smile: "First, as I said just now, housing prices in the United States have been rising for more than a decade. Many Americans are willing to invest in real estate. The real estate industry in the United States is booming. For banks, even if they lend money to these subprime credit borrowers, the risk is a bit high, but the interest is high. The most important thing is that housing prices as a whole are constantly rising. Sell it again. In this way, the bank will not only be able to recover the previously borrowed loans, but also make a fortune following the rise in housing prices.

Therefore, after risk assessment, those banks in the United States believe that as long as the risk is within the controllable range, there will be no problems. After the income offsets part of the loss, the overall profit is still a lot, and the profit is still quite a lot. What’s more, those subprime credit loan borrowers have more or less been able to repay their loans for several installments or even years before. Banks have earned a lot of high interest.So in general, banks only make profits but not losses. "

Hearing what Zhang Qihang said, Song Yuehua also understood the logic, and couldn't help but sigh while nodding: "This is the old saying, what you buy is not what you sell."

Tang Changhao also nodded, and asked at the same time: "You just said that there are two reasons why the bank is not afraid, so what is the second reason?"

"The second reason is that mortgage-backed securities, or MBS for short..."

After all, Song Yuehua presided over and led the economic work of Lu Province. When Zhang Qihang heard about the MBS, he immediately slapped his head: "So it's this! Why didn't I think of it?"

After finishing speaking, seeing Tang Changhao's puzzled look, Song Yuehua took the initiative to explain to Tang Changhao: "This mortgage-backed security was invented by an American economist named Lewis in the 60s.

To put it simply, mortgage-backed securities means that banks package customers’ loans into securities asset packages, and sell them in other financial channels such as the stock market and funds at a price lower than the mortgage interest rate but higher than the principal. In this way, the principal and joint interest repaid by those home buyers in the future will belong to the bondholders, which means that the bond subscribers indirectly lend money to the home buyers. , While withdrawing funds quickly, he also passed on the risk of repayment to the holders of the bond asset package, and even ate a wave of spreads from it, making several waves inside and out.

The most wonderful thing is that this game can continue to play, after the new housing mortgage loan is approved, the bank can repackage the MBS sale again to withdraw funds, and then make loans, and repeat the cycle..."

Speaking of this, Song Yuehua looked at Zhang Qihang and said excitedly: "Personal housing mortgages are the highest-quality assets in MBS, and even subprime mortgages are relatively high-quality assets. Given the greedy eyes of those American bankers who don't see money, they must have packaged subprime mortgages into asset packages and sold them, right?"

Zhang Qihang smiled and nodded: "That's it."

Tang Changhao has been thinking about what Zhang Qihang and Song Yuehua said, but at this moment, he frowned: "I don't know much about economics, but why do I always feel that something is wrong?"