The investment era of rebirth

I saw that after yesterday's suspension of Huaguo Petrochemical's mixed-ownership reform and the suspension of trading, the peripheral market is still in good shape.

Most of the stocks in the two cities opened higher. Among them, the two main concept stocks of 'Mobile Internet' and 'Smartphone Industry Chain' in the direction of the ChiNext and the SME board rebounded strongly, leading the two markets. , except for a few small-cap stocks controlled by local state-owned assets, which have changed, the large-cap stocks have no obvious outstanding performance.

"It seems that the suspension of Huaguo Petrochemical's mixed reform will have a very limited impact on the market!"

Seeing that the initial situation of call auctions in the two cities was obviously weaker than expected, Li Meng said with emotion: "I feel that the market's sensitivity and reaction to news have begun to slow down and decrease."

Su Yu nodded slightly, and said: "The market is becoming immune to news, which is almost a characteristic of the bottom."

"The attack direction of active funds is still on the two main lines of 'mobile Internet' and 'smart phone industry chain' headed by the small and medium-sized board and the ChiNext board." Li Meng said, "It seems that the timing of market style transformation is still not clear. Maturity, we... I'm afraid we have to wait!"

"No problem!" Su Yu said, "Let's take a look after the market opens."

"Mr. Su, based on the expected logic, and the reaction of various sectors during the market's decline during this period, the main concepts of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain' in the direction of the small and medium-sized board and the gem are still the strongest. !” While the two were talking, Liu Yuan, head of the fund trading team of 'Yuhang No. 2', said, “On the way down, only these two main lines were resistive declines, and according to various data collected and investigated by the company’s research office, According to the industry research report, the industries related to these two main lines are still the fields with the most explosive growth in scale and performance, why does Mr. Su feel that...the market will definitely undergo a change in the style of the main line in the next stage?"

Seeing the doubt in Liu Yuan's eyes, Su Yu smiled and said: "Your question is very good! Then what do you think is the basic condition for the existence of opportunities in investing in the stock market? What is the fundamental logic of the rise and fall of stock prices? To obtain excess Revenue, where does the biggest opportunity come from?"

"The fundamental logic of stock price rises and falls is naturally the difference in expectations." Liu Yuan said, "The difference between investors' understanding of the company's fundamentals and the company's future development expectations leads to continuous transactions and stock price fluctuations. As for The basic conditions for the existence of opportunities...should be the changes in market information and actual events, resulting in changes in future expectations, resulting in opportunities for expected differences."

"And to obtain excess returns, the biggest source of opportunity..."

Liu Yuan thought about it for a while, but she didn't understand this question deeply, so she couldn't help but pause, and after a while, she asked, "I also ask President Su for advice."

Su Yu smiled and said, "It's still the difference in market expectations!"

"Sufficient market expectation differences can generate excess market investment opportunities."

"The two core lines of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain' you just mentioned are still the areas with the clearest investment logic and the strongest future expectations in the market. This is true."

"However, after the hype in these two fields throughout last year, as well as the comprehensive performance explosion of popular stocks in various related industries and the corresponding stock price performance, many investment institutions in the current market have focused their attention on this field. The ability to invest in research in this field.” …

"in other words……"

"The future expectations of these two fields are good. In the current market, basically everyone knows about them."

"Since everyone's expectations for the future development and performance of these two fields are very good, it means that in these two fields, everyone's expectations are quite consistent, and they are all optimistic, which means that there is currently no development in these two fields. If there is too much difference in market expectations, it will naturally be difficult to generate opportunities to obtain excess market benefits.”

"When you hold a handful of bright cards in your hand, then...it's hard to surprise people."

"Moreover, it is precisely because everyone is optimistic about the future of the two major fields of 'mobile Internet' and 'smart phone industry chain', and they all believe that there are still good investment opportunities here. Stocks, in a relatively large market correction, it is difficult to fall through, and it is difficult to fall out of obvious opportunities."

"Of course, I'm not saying that there are no investment opportunities in these two areas."

"It is rather that it is difficult to obtain excess market returns that far exceed index fluctuations when the current market expectations for these two areas are relatively consistent."

"In contrast to certain areas of motherboard direction..."

"Under the overall pessimistic low-expected valuation compression of the market, it has already reached the bottom of the market's extreme valuation. At this time...as long as the market picks up a little bit and a gust of wind blows, it will be easy for future expectations to change slightly and the superimposed valuation to rise. Obtain excess market returns."

"Of course, when the wind doesn't blow."

"Active funds in the market will naturally gather in the fields with the strongest future expectations and the highest certainty in the current market, which are the fields of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain' you mentioned just now."

"Understood!" Liu Yuan said, "The core of investment transactions is still the words 'difference in expectations'."

"Yes!" Su Yu said, "It is impossible for most people to make money in the financial trading market, so...it means that the obvious opportunity is most likely not an opportunity."

"The two core lines of 'Mobile Internet' and 'Smartphone Industry Chain'."

"When the market expectations are consistent, there are no good investment opportunities. Only when these two areas have different expectations over time and industry development, that is, the highly optimistic consensus expectations fail, and the valuation appears to be renewed. Compression, when the relevant stocks show obvious differentiation, it is a good opportunity to invest.”

"Prior to this, many main board industry sectors that have been compressed to the limit of valuation, completely abandoned by the market, and whose future expectations have been hit to the bottom are stimulated by policies. Instead, there are better opportunities for the main board industry sectors with reversal expectations, so we The focus of future investment should also be on this.”

"President Su is talking about the real estate industry chain and infrastructure-related fields?" Liu Yuan asked.

Su Yu nodded slightly, and said: "Yes, since the core driver of the macro economy, we still have to return to the development of 'urbanization' with the 'real estate economy' as the core. The real estate industry chain, urban construction and infrastructure related fields have enough reversal expectations.” …

While the three were talking, the time had reached 9:20.

I saw that after 5 minutes of call auction trading, the market pattern of individual stocks in the two cities generally opening higher has fallen back a lot. Of the nearly 2000 stocks, only 53% of the stocks are in the red market, and at the beginning of the call auction, the stocks that led the rise in the two cities 'Mobile Internet', 'smartphone industry chain' related concept sectors, and related concept stocks have all fallen sharply. On the contrary, the real estate and infrastructure related industries mentioned by Su Yu just now climbed to the top of the industry sectors in the two cities. .

Moreover, in the concept sector of the "state-owned enterprise reform of state-owned enterprises", local state-owned holding companies related to real estate and infrastructure have also entered the forefront of the concept sector's growth list driven by selling funds.

Seeing this scene, Su Yu couldn't help laughing and said: "It seems...there are still a lot of smart funds in the market, and they know how to attack in this direction."

The reform of state-owned assets of central enterprises is superimposed on the concepts of real estate and infrastructure industries that have the conditions for recovery.

Su Yu guessed that this should be the area with the most investment opportunities and the most expected differences in the market.

"But on the whole, buying is still insufficient." Li Meng said, "What's more, the funds are attacking large-cap stocks of central enterprises such as Gemdale, Poly, Kevan, Huatie, Huajian, and Huaye. The overall strength of the market, I am afraid that it will not be able to pull these things out, the concept of "reform of state-owned assets of central enterprises" is too big, and there should not be much opportunity until the market fully recovers."

Su Yu said: "Based on the current market volume, it must be difficult to pull these things up suddenly, but there is no doubt... This is a signal that proves that the market style is indeed slowly changing, and that there are smart investments Institutions are already actively adjusting positions and making orders in this regard."

"For us, as long as we're going in the right direction, that's fine."

"Be patient, we have plenty."

"Then we..." Liu Yuan asked, "Can we take advantage of the opportunity to aggressively follow up positions and stir up the market?"

Su Yu thought for a while, and said: "Don't worry, although the index is currently at the bottom of the range between 2000 and 2200, and the market has indeed shrunk to the limit, the panic in the market has not been released quickly. The index... is still short of the last drop!"

"Wait patiently, the market's panic-cutting plate will not be released in a concentrated manner."

"Pull up at this position, the pressure cannot be reduced, and even if there is a rebound, there is not much room. Only when the meat is cleared and the pressure in the field is reduced, there will be enough room for a rebound. We... can make a good market move .”

"Okay!" Liu Yuan nodded and stopped talking.

At this time, the time has come to 9:25, and the call auction of the two cities is over.

I saw that although the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index, and the ChiNext Index all opened higher, the margin was only between 0.11% and 0.15%, which was still lower than the expectations of market investors, and the concept of "state-owned enterprise reform of state-owned enterprises" detonated by Huaguo Petrochemical The sector also only rose by 0.35%. In the sector, only a few stocks such as 'Shenzhen Technology, SDIC Capital, and Huajiao Real Estate', which are not very big, have an increase of more than 5%.

Subsequently, when the time entered 9:30, the two cities officially opened for trading.

More than 100 stocks in the concept sector of the "state-owned enterprises and state-owned assets reform" began to fall after a short period of time. The undertaking was weak and the sell-offs increased sharply. Suspension' is a sign of positive signs of accelerating escape from the market. …

As for the SME board and the GEM, the two main lines are 'mobile Internet' and 'smart phone industry chain'.

Many popular stocks that were continuously speculated last year have also come out of the form of rising and falling with the passage of trading time, and there is no sign of the end of the adjustment at all.

Overall……

Even if there is a corresponding positive market, the money-making effect is still sluggish.

After the concept of "state-owned assets reform of central enterprises" on the main board, and the concepts of "mobile Internet" and "smart phone industry chain" on the small and medium-sized board and gem, neither can produce a sustained market, nor can they attract large-scale funds to follow suit and hype. The market trading time is 10:[-] After [-] minutes, the active hot money in various markets began to focus on the low-level "Shanghai Free Trade Zone" concept to hype, pulling "Waigaoqiao, Shanghai Sanmao, Shanghai Steel Union, Shibei High-tech" and other pure The concept stocks of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, in order to stir up the market and drive up market sentiment.

However, after a short period of capital gathering.

When the Sanmao in the Shanghai stock market was pulled up, it was smashed from the daily limit board.

This move by the hot money was a complete failure, and the market returned to a downward trend.

In the afternoon, in the midst of the market's continuous negative decline, when the time-sharing volume was able to shrink to the limit, the trapped hot money again promoted the concept of "secondary new shares" in order to save market sentiment.

In the end, facing a really depressed market sentiment, facing a market that has no follow-up effect.

This kind of behavior of hot money from all walks of life ended in failure.

Finally, when the market closed at 3 o'clock, the stock index fell again by 0.75%, reaching 2018.19 points, and the limit was close to the 2000 point mark. Shock support platform.

Facing such a weak market performance...

After several attacks and repeated failures, the active hot money was desperate; under the benefit of the "Hua Guo Petrochemical Mixed Reform and Suspension", the institutions that followed the concept theme of "state-owned enterprise reform" were also full of grievances, and felt that the market was really not good enough. It makes sense; many retail investors who have been buried continuously and have been cut off to the extent that they dare not look at their accounts are even more heartbroken, feeling that the stock market is really hopeless.

And due to the continued downturn in the market after the Spring Festival.

After several major indexes closed consecutive negative lines in December and January last year, now they closed a solid negative line again, destroying the upward trend that was hard to recover in the second half of last year and pulling the market back into a deep bear market. It also brought market confidence and investment sentiment to the bottom again.

"Look at this form, next... 2000 points must be broken!"

After the monthly line closed, some people in the market, among the vast group of retail investors who had collapsed and despaired, made assertions.

"Hey, to the bottom of the box, there is no rebound, just like this, it's strange to be able to hold 2000 points."

"What the hell, the year before last, we were screaming about the 2000-point defense war, and last year we were screaming about the 2000-point defense war, and now we are still screaming... I am really speechless. Looking back ten years, the Shanghai stock index is still swinging around 2000 points. Looking at the global market, there is no I've seen something so outrageous."

"It's been zero for ten years, do you think it's nonsense?"

"Tired, tired! Holding expectations again and again, but every time I am disappointed."

"The market was so good in the second half of last year. I really didn't expect that the market would fall back to the original point in three months." …

"The index has returned to its original point, but many individual stocks have hit record lows again!"

"Hey, I can't hold on to 2000 points, I really don't know, where is the bottom? It will be sold next week, what the hell... I won't play in this market."

"It's really miserable. It's not just our retail investors who are miserable. Recently, the hot money who sold out has also suffered a lot of losses!"

"Today's hot money, on the attack path, they have changed again and again, and they have never brought up emotions. Let's see... next week is a new month, and all the hot money that went in today will have to cut their flesh."

"Hey, the bear market doesn't talk about the bottom line. It's really a desperate fall."

"It has been falling for more than 3 years. The bear market from 02 to 05 didn't feel so difficult."

"What's outrageous is that today's major brokerage institutions and securities media are still shouting that the future is promising, bull market, 2000 points are not guaranteed, how can they be bullish?"

"Look at the K line backwards, isn't the bull coming?"

"Hey, these institutions and the media may really be looking at K-line backwards."

"Hey, it feels like there are fewer people on the forum, and the number of hot topics has almost doubled compared to the beginning of December last year!"

"It's so bad that I don't even want to open the account. How can I still be in the mood to chat, watch the stock market, and read forum news? I feel that the market will fall again, and I will have to go back to the trend of collective weaving with more than 1000 stocks in the two cities."

"It's almost the same now. There is a stock I bought. The daily turnover is only 136 million. Can you believe it? It is the turnover, not the turnover. I feel that 100 million can raise the limit. Unfortunately... just can enter It can’t be sold, this kind of turnover, the big players in the market can’t sell it at all.”

"The liquidity crisis is getting closer."

"Hey, there is no profit-making effect. Off-market funds will not come in at all. Without incremental funds, no matter how big the benefits are, it will be useless."

"The effect of making money also needs real money to pull the market. The national team can't start at this time, who will pull it? Is it counting on hot money, relying on institutions? After a few waves of hot money, they are all covered. Institutions... I heard that the market 90% of the public offering institutions can’t release their products, and the redemption wave of existing products is also one after another. In this way, it’s good for the institutions to deal with the redemption without smashing the market, how can they have the money to pull the market?”

"Public equity institutions can't do it, let alone private equity institutions."

"In the past three months, the market has continued to fall unilaterally. In the Lujiazui area, at least 500 private equity investment companies have closed down."

"I can only count on President Su..."

"Yes, Mr. Su now has nearly 100 billion in cash in his hands, and the 'Wealth Road' has great appeal to the market. If Mr. Su enters the market on a large scale and goes long, can the emotions be stirred up? As long as emotions and making money If the effect can be raised, incremental funds can be attracted, and with incremental funds, are you afraid that there will be no market?"

"But President Su's seat has disappeared for three months since the position was cleared at the beginning of December last year."

"Hey, the flowers are all gone."

"Looking forward, when will the 'Fortune Road' return?"

"The key 'Yuhang No. 1' fund and 'Yuhang No. 2' fund haven't announced their net worth and holdings data recently, and they don't know what President Su is doing at all!"

"Wait! Wait patiently. If you don't see 'Wealth Road', no matter how the index or market changes, I won't enter the market."

In the pessimistic discussion of the majority of retail investors, everyone is also looking forward to Su Yu and the seat of "Wealth Road"...

At this moment, the entire trading department of the 'Yuhang Investment' company.

In terms of macro trading strategies, we still keep avoiding the dragon and tiger rankings, build positions gradually, patiently wait for the opportunity of further market expectations and market resonance, and still maintain external silence.

And at this moment, Su Yu, after finishing the company's affairs, was already accompanied by Dai Lingna.

Came to the place agreed with Yang Hao, and further discussed about the other party's desire to acquire the "Jiangjiang East Suburb Riverside Land" in his hand.