Reborn in Hong Kong as a Tycoon

Chapter 528 Misjudgment, from ups to downs (two in one)

After fluctuating for a few minutes, oil prices began to turn downwards. Obviously, the bears temporarily gained the upper hand.

"Chairman, it seems that the current short positions are stronger. We can close part of the long orders first, and then take them back later."

Seeing this, Vivien Kelly immediately said that although her judgment is still bullish and oil prices are rising, since it is falling now and the short positions are stronger, then she should take advantage of the trend and take out a part of the position for short-term spreads.

"Leave [-]% of the positions unchanged, and operate the remaining [-]% of the positions as you want."

Lin Baicheng said aloud that although he knew that oil prices would rise in the future, taking out [-]% of the position and letting Vivien Kelly lead the operation would allow him to better understand Vivien Kelly's operating level.

Vivien Kelly immediately issued an order when she heard the words: "Group A and Group B, each liquidate the long position of 13.85 million US dollars, and stop selling when the oil price falls below [-] US dollars per barrel."

"Yes, manager!"

The traders of Group A and Group B sitting in front of the computer desk immediately placed an order on the computer.

At this time, Vivien Kelly said to Lin Baicheng: "Chairman, I still insist on being bullish. The short position is only temporarily strong. We can use [-]% of the position to make a short difference. If too many positions are closed, I am worried. It will be too late to pick it up later.”

"Do as you want."

Lin Baicheng nodded, Vivien Kelly's arrangement is not wrong.

Oil futures are different from the stock market. One lot is equal to 1000 barrels. If calculated at a price of US$14 per barrel, one lot is worth US$1.4.

Each group of long orders of 7000 million US dollars is not meant to sell more than [-] lots at once in one account, but to sell in multiple accounts. It's the same with selling now.

Therefore, from the perspective of the market, there are suddenly ten or twenty large orders of hundreds or even thousands of lots in the market, which makes the already downward oil price fall even faster.

At present, the daily trading volume of the oil futures market is about [-] lots per day, which is about [-] million U.S. dollars.

However, when there is short or long force, or even when there is a divergence between long and short, the daily trading volume will definitely increase.

Taking yesterday as an example, oil prices rose by 3.485%. The trading volume of the day was 7.65 lots, with a turnover of US$10 billion.

Today's trading volume is even larger than yesterday's. In the morning alone, there was a turnover of more than 6 million U.S. dollars. But even so, the 2 million U.S. dollar sell order was still very large in the market, which accelerated the decline in oil prices.

"Groups A and B pay attention, after the oil price falls below $13.7 per barrel, start to build positions slowly, and buy back as many lots as you sold before."

As oil prices fell to $13.75 a barrel, Vivien Kelly spoke again.

Regardless of how long it took to sell and buy, the price difference is only a little more than 0.2 US dollars per barrel, but the short difference is more than a percentage point, and the capital of 300 million US dollars is a profit of about [-] million US dollars.

In the futures market, it is very important to be able to make short-term trades. If you can do short-term trades correctly once a week, 52 weeks a year, 50 trading weeks after deducting special holidays, that is 50% of the profit, which is already quite Taller.

It's just that this kind of good thing is basically impossible, and there are times when you make mistakes when doing short-term trades. If you want to do short-term trades right every time, how can there be such a powerful investor.If there were such a powerful person, they would have worked on their own long ago, how could they still work for others.

The oil price did not fall below the price of US$13.7 per barrel. The closing price of oil price yesterday was US$13.66 per barrel. The closer to this price, the stronger the resistance of the bulls. There is a strong support near this price.

Oil prices ushered in a small rebound, but Vivien Kelly looked at the market with an unchanged expression, and did not let anyone take back the sell order immediately.

Over the next 15 minutes, oil prices rallied to a short-term high of $13.8 a barrel before falling, this time below $13.7 a barrel.

And when the oil price was about to fall below, Group A and Group B had already placed a small number of long orders.

With the drop of oil price, the long orders opened are constantly being traded.

When Golden Fleece sold the US$2 million and bought it back, the oil price did not rebound because of this, and was still in a fluctuating decline. It had already fallen below yesterday's closing price before the completion of the position building. Today's trend has become From up to down.

Vivien Kelly's complexion has turned ugly, because the current trend is different from what she judged. It looks like it has risen and retreated, and the momentum of many parties is insufficient, so there is still a lot of room for decline.

"Chairman, judging from the current trend, the short side may be stronger, and there will be a lot of room for decline in the future. Do we want to close the long order?"

If the Golden Fleece Company closes its long orders now, it will still make a profit. Therefore, although it has not met the judgment's expectations, Vivien Kelly still has the idea of ​​pocketing it.

"What is our average cost price?"

Lin Baicheng didn't answer, but asked instead.

Vivien Kelly heard this and looked at her assistant next to her.

The assistant said: "Counting the short-term difference just made, it is now $13.21 per barrel!"

Lin Baicheng said aloud: "So there is an increase of more than two points, so let's continue to watch, don't operate for now, and see how it will go in the future."

The trend of oil prices that day was ugly, rising first and then falling, closing at $13.38 a barrel, a drop of 2.05%.If someone bought it at $14 a barrel in the morning, they would lose about 4.5% today.

It just so happens that US$13.38 per barrel is not the lowest price today, but US$13.3 per barrel. If there are funds chasing higher and using [-] times leverage, then the position will be liquidated and the position will be forcibly closed by the financing institution.

This is the funds using 100 times leverage, and the funds using more leverage multiples have long been liquidated.Oil futures can use a leverage of up to 1 times, that is, if you lose [-]%, you will lose all your principal. Basically, no one dares to play like this.

After the market closed, Lin Baicheng called Vivien Kelly to the office of Haruko Mori, who was also there.

"What do you think about the future of oil prices? Or stick to the bulls?"

"Oil prices have risen and fallen back today, and the bears have the upper hand. It is more likely to continue to adjust downwards later. It is not impossible to return to the price of US$13 per barrel in the short term, or even fall below this price."

"Chairman, although I am still bullish on oil prices in the long run, since it will be adjusted downward in the short term, we should close our long positions first."

Vivien Kelly said her opinion aloud. In the futures market, you must know how to admit defeat. If you don’t admit defeat, you just feel that your judgment is correct. You will be taught by the market to be a man. There was no loss, but not much profit.

"There is no need to close long orders, and I am also optimistic about the long-term trend of oil prices."

Lin Baicheng couldn't help waving his hands when he heard the words, and asked Vivien Kelly to take the lead in the operation to observe her ability, but she had to make money, and let a lot of opportunities to make money fly away.

Vivien Kelly couldn't help but said: "But if we don't close our long orders, the oil price will fall, and we may suffer losses later, and the specific loss ratio is still uncertain."

"It's okay to lose money in the short term, just keep holding it if you lose money."

Lin Baicheng smiled and said: "The cost is 13.21 US dollars per barrel, and the leverage is about five times. As long as the oil price ratio falls below 11 US dollars per barrel, then our funds are safe. Vivien, do you think the oil price may fall below 11 US dollars per barrel?" $[-] a barrel?"

Vivien Kelly said immediately: "Although anything can happen in the futures market, it is basically impossible for us to lose 20% of our funds."

"That's it."

Lin Baicheng nodded: "Besides, even if the oil price falls below $11 a barrel, we don't have the funds to cover our positions. No matter how the oil price falls, as long as the long-term oil price rises, we will be able to make a profit sooner or later."

Vivien Kelly couldn't help reminding: "Chairman, although I think my judgment is correct, if the trend of oil prices shows a downward trend, then we should stop losses when we should stop losses, and we must know how to admit defeat, otherwise We will not only lose all our principal, but even more money. As long as we have funds, we can look for opportunities in the future and keep hope."

"I understand what you mean, and I have my own judgment on this."

Lin Baicheng knew Vivien Kelly's kindness, but he believed in the memory before rebirth. If the butterfly effect really happened, it would be bad luck for him.

Lin Baicheng has said so, and Vivien Kelly will naturally not say anything more.

Lin Baicheng: "In the case of insisting on going long and holding long orders, before closing the position, if you see a suitable opportunity to make a short difference, then you can take out a part of the position to make a short difference. By the way, don't sell short positions Come and do short-term trades, don’t do that kind of hedging-style short-term trades.”

The reason why Vivien Kelly was not allowed to make a short difference by shorting is because he was not sure when the oil price would rise sharply. Some of the funds did not earn the rising profits, but instead lost the short-selling declines, which is equivalent to twice the loss, which is a bit risky.

Knowing that oil prices will show an upward trend, there is no need to carry out more risky short positions.

"I've made a note, Chairman."

Vivien Kelly responded and nodded in understanding.

Lin Baicheng said in relief: "Don't put too much pressure on it. At least our funds are still profitable at the moment, and I'm going to give you the bottom line, so what you have to do is watch the market analysis with a calm mind."

"Thank you, Chairman!"

Vivien Kelly sincerely thanked her. If she were in Merrill Lynch or other investment banks, if she made a mistake in her judgment, then all the responsibilities would be on her, and waiting for her ending would be to leave.

However, if she was still working at Merrill Lynch, Vivien Kelly would not be able to operate so much money at all, and she would be more cautious. When the oil price fell below $14 a barrel, she would start closing positions and selling to lock in profits .

Vivien Kelly would not risk her career, she would rather earn less, which would be more stable.

Lin Baicheng waved his hand: "You go out first and have a good rest at night."

"Chairman, then I'll go out first."

Vivien Kelly stood up to pay her respects and left the office.

After Vivien Kelly left, Haruko Mori said to Lin Baicheng: "Chairman, we have invested a principal of 3.8 million US dollars in oil futures. If we lose all of this, the loss will be too much." .”

"Don't worry, even if you don't believe Vivien's judgment, you should trust mine."

Lin Baicheng knew what Haruko Mori was worried about, and specifically reminded: "Don't forget the current gold price. I invest more in gold futures. Doesn't the rise in gold prices prove that my vision is correct?"

"That is to say, but no one can be sure what kind of fluctuations the futures market will have. Once there is a downward adjustment, the existing profits will be greatly withdrawn."

In view of her relationship with Lin Baicheng, Mouri Haruko was more courageous, and she was indeed worried about Lin Baicheng's investment. It was really too much investment here, which made people shudder.

"It's okay. Even if there is an adjustment, it's nothing more than making less money. Anyway, our cost price is relatively low."

Lin Baicheng didn't explain too much to Haruko Mori, saying that it was unnecessary for the price of gold to rise to 800 US dollars per ounce, and it would be difficult to explain after talking too much.

All Haruko Mori can do is to remind her that after all the money belongs to Lin Baicheng, and with Lin Baicheng's resolute attitude, she can't say any more, after all, saying too many unpleasant words can easily annoy people, and she doesn't want to be dismissed by Lin Baicheng.

"Let's go back together."

Lin Baicheng and Mori Haruko left the company after get off work together.

However, that night, Lin Baicheng did not stay in Haruko Mori's apartment for the night. He went to the high-end apartment on Fifth Avenue, and Guan Zhilin stayed here. come once.

In the following trading days, oil prices continued to fall, but not too much, only half a point.

However, although the daily decline was not much, the decline for several trading days in a row, with only occasional small rebounds, the oil price gradually fell below the price of 13 US dollars per barrel, and the Golden Fleece Company naturally suffered a loss of funds.

During this period, although Vivien Kelly made two short-term trades according to what Lin Baicheng said, the profit each time was only about 200 million U.S. dollars, and the sum of the two times was only 400 million U.S. dollars. Poor profits are nothing at all.

Vivien Kelly was a little worried, and kept in touch with Lin Baicheng who had left New York and returned to Los Angeles. Lin Baicheng reassured her, and at the same time let her insist on holding long positions, and at most occasionally take part of the position for short positions.

Since the position in oil futures will not be liquidated in a short time, there is no need for Lin Baicheng to stay in New York every day. He has more companies in Los Angeles than in New York.

However, Lin Baicheng, who took Guan Zhilin away from New York, was not busy with work immediately, but took Guan Zhilin to play in Los Angeles, and even took Guan Zhilin to the big farm in Fresno to play, which made Guan Zhilin very happy. for a few days.

(End of this chapter)