Yanzi Valley of Jingcheng

Chapter 145 Path Dependencies

Guan Sha pays attention to the real estate policy every day. She thinks she understands it very well. The more she understands, the more opportunities she can see to preserve and increase the value of the house.

For example, in Xi'an some time ago, the population inflow has grown very fast since 2017.

2017至2018年两年期间，西安新增户籍人口约101万人，常住人口从961.67万人升至1000.4万人, 增加38.7万人，全国排名第三。

The large population inflow has contributed to the rise in housing prices, so the local government had to issue a notice announcing further tightening of regulation:
1. Families who come to Xi’an from other places to settle down and buy a house in a purchase-restricted area must settle for one year, or pay social security or income tax for 12 consecutive months.

2. Those who have not settled down in Xi'an are required to provide income tax and social security certificates for more than 5 years, and can only buy one house.

3. Include Lintong District in the purchase restriction scope.

Recently, housing prices in Xi’an have risen by about 20%. In Guan Sha’s view, these government purchase restriction policies are nothing to fear. With the population influx, the more the government restricts purchases, the more it will cause hunger marketing in the market. As a result, more and more people are rushing to buy a house.

Because if the policy continues to be tightened in the future, no one knows whether they are still eligible to buy, so every time the purchase restriction order comes out, the looting starts, and the house price also rises during the looting. Great news.

No matter how she looks at it, Guan Sha feels that she is right in recommending clients to buy houses in Xi’an. Indeed, many clients bought houses in Xi’an because of Guan Sha’s real estate investment group.

"Wrong." Xiao Jie directly came to a conclusion, "Didn't you find out that the data you gave just shows a problem. When the registered population increased by 101 million, the permanent population only increased by 38.7, less than [-]%."

Guan Sha blinked her eyes, "So? Isn't this all growing? The permanent population will decrease if it decreases, and it will increase anyway..."

Xiao Jie shook his head, "You have to learn to look at the indicators together. If the increase in the permanent population is less than 40% of the increase in the registered population, it means that more than 60% of the people who went to Xi'an to buy a house have left. In other words, more than 60% % of the population who settled in Xi’an settled down to buy a house.”

Guan Sha speaks eloquently, "No matter what their reason is, in short, they are willing to go to Xi'an, settle down or do other things. The final result is that the houses in Xi'an will continue to rise." Guan Sha has eloquent words.

"Yes, but this kind of motivation is not sustainable." Xiao Jie said.

The reasons given by Xiao Jie are:

It is becoming more and more difficult to stay in first-tier cities, causing some of the population to return to second-tier cities like Xi'an, so housing prices in Xi'an have risen.

The rise in housing prices in Xi'an has attracted many people to buy, especially real estate speculators.

Whether the population can flow into a city for a long time depends ultimately on the level of economic development of the city, not on housing prices.

For example, Shanghai and Qingyang have been able to attract migrants for a long time because of their very fast economic growth, not because housing prices in these two cities have risen rapidly. Therefore, the rise in housing prices in Xi’an must be short-lived and unsustainable.

The bubble will burst when it blows to a certain extent. How fast these houses are going up now will fall down when the bubble bursts. "

When Guan Sha heard this, her mouth became an O shape. She felt that she was going to be brainwashed by Xiao Jie, so she shook her head by the way, "No, no! That's not the case... I'll take a strand..."

Thinking of this, Guan Sha suddenly felt very thirsty. Seeing that there was still half a cup of green tea in the white porcelain cup on Xiao Jie's table, she picked it up and drank it without asking.

"Uh..." Xiao Jie wanted to stop Guan Sha, but Guan Sha had almost emptied her cup.

Seeing Guan Sha's bulging cheeks after putting down the cup, Xiao Jie could only swallow the words abruptly.

Guan Sha sensed the strange expression on Xiao Jie's face, and suddenly reacted, and quickly spit out the unswallowed tea in her mouth back into the cup, "Don't tell me that this tea was from yesterday..."

"...This is not..." Xiao Jie said.

After hearing this, Guan Sha breathed a sigh of relief, "I'll go wash up."

As Guan Sha said, she walked out of Xiao Jie's office quickly and went to the bathroom to wash the cups. She subconsciously wanted to escape from that office, because it seemed that all her dreams could be buried there.

While washing, Guan Sha found a brown mark inside the cup that could not be removed after rubbing for a long time, her body trembled, and an ominous premonition arose spontaneously.

Guan Sha rushed back to Xiao Jie's office and asked loudly, "Are you sure this tea wasn't from yesterday?"

"No..." Xiao Jie denied again.

"But……"

Just as Guan Sha was about to say something, Xiao Jie said helplessly, "It was from last week."

Guan Sha: "..."

When Guan Sha ran out to wash the cups just now, Xiao Jie was still hesitating whether to tell her the truth. It seemed a bit heartless to say it, but if he didn’t, he didn’t know what the consequences would be if he drank the tea after a week .

"You have to find a way to spit it out, or you might have to wash your stomach." Xiao Jie reminded.

Guan Sha felt nauseous after realizing it, and immediately went to the toilet to find a way to induce vomiting.

Master Guan, you are really looking for trouble!
Coming to Jin Quan today is just asking for no fun, Xiao Jie scolded him for not being able to finance it, so it’s fine if you don’t come? !
If you don't come, the world is still beautiful, the company still has great development prospects, and you may still become the queen of the real estate investment industry!
Guan Sha cursed herself inwardly as she vomited.

In fact, Xiao Jie's tone was not scolding, and he was not right about the matter or the person, but Guan Sha just felt that listening to Xiao Jie's words today was like drinking green tea the next week.

After Guan Sha finished vomiting, she saw herself in the mirror in the bathroom flushed, the blood vessels on her neck were congested, and even her eyes were bloodshot. At this time, Xiao Jie's secretary walked in and saw Guan Sha like this. The son was taken aback, but he didn't dare to say anything. He found a toilet and locked the door.

She was really ashamed, Guan Sha washed her face several times, jumped on the spot, and ran back and forth in the corridor where there was no one outside, turned on the front camera of her mobile phone, and reconfirmed that her face was not congested before returning to the hospital. Go to Xiao Jie's office.

Guan Sha put the porcelain cup on Xiao Jie's table and raised her voice, "Perhaps what you said is right, this road is getting more and more difficult, but I can't stop doing it just because it is difficult. The golden decade has indeed passed, but we There is also ten years of silver. You said that everyone’s houses will fall in the future. I think this kind of thing is unlikely to happen. If house prices fall generally, it means that the assets of ordinary people will shrink, and according to what you said, 100 million will fall into At 50, the national capital will be mobilized, so it is absolutely impossible!"

At this moment, Guan Sha is like most people in front of Xiao Jie. No one is allowed to slander what she firmly believes in. They think they are right, but they don’t know that what many people are doing may be right in the short term, but in the long run It seems wrong.

Those who still hope to invest in real estate for family financial management, in fact, have formed a path dependence on the value-added of buying a house.

They have seen their relatives and friends making money by buying houses, seeing their parents making money by buying houses in the past ten years, and even seeing that the houses they bought before are making money. It is rising, so they will only invest money in real estate, resulting in path dependence, so that apart from houses, they don't know what to do to make personal or family property continue to increase in value.

Such path dependence will make many people suffer, because this path is likely to be a dead end in the future.

"Guan Sha, there are three things I must explain to you as a friend." Xiao Jie's expression became more serious than ever.

"First, I have no objection to you starting this company. You can serve some customers and earn the piece of cake that the market gives you, even if this piece of cake is getting smaller and smaller;"

"Second, you mentioned Guoben just now. You can rethink what is Guoben. Is Guoben the part of the value-added part of the houses you buy, or the people themselves? Only tens of thousands of buildings can be built. Sheltering the world and making poor people happy, I think it is a symbol of a strong country that all ordinary people can live in houses at a relatively low price, no matter whether they are buying or renting, as long as they can live relatively easily. It should not become a game that only the rich and a small part of the middle class can play."

"Third..." Xiao Jie paused at this point, "We, Jinquan, never invest in No.2 companies. If you haven't been involved in the company's daily chores, take a look outside. Recently, there have been similar companies. The company does better than you, is bigger than you, and has a wider coverage than you, called Jingyi."

(End of this chapter)