Yanzi Valley of Jingcheng

Chapter 41 The Paradox of Inspection
Guan Sha was originally very repulsive of being a live broadcast anchor by herself, but when she stepped on the pit in the live broadcast room of the twin sisters and was in a dilemma on whether to cooperate with Ni Die, her heart was not completely shaken.

In the Internet age, it seems that whoever dares to expose himself can gain traffic, and whoever has traffic can gain the right to speak and unlimited business opportunities.

Since the start-up funds are so limited, shouldn’t we play cards according to the conventional routine and give full play to our own advantages?
Through unremitting efforts, Ni Die has his own company, his own factory, and several houses in Jingcheng District of Qingyang; and Yun Xiabai's life trajectory is even more inspirational, from a fishmonger's son in a small mountain village to As a top Internet celebrity anchor with tens of millions of fans, the price of his mountain view villa even Guan Sha's father had to hesitate before buying it.

Just when Guan Sha's prejudice against live broadcasters began to be wiped out by the huge benefits, Xiao Jie's "no" made her vigilant.

"Let me give you an example." Xiao Jie said, "A long time ago, there was a computer scientist in the United States named Alan Downey. He conducted an experiment, which was to find out the average number of students in each class of a school through surveys.

He found a very interesting thing. The conclusions drawn by different investigation methods are not only different, but also very different.

The school Alan Downey investigated at the time was Purdue University in the United States. He went to the Academic Affairs Office to ask for data directly. This data was naturally obtained by dividing the total number of students in the school by the total number of classes. There are 35 people in the class.

Logically speaking, this number is accurate, but when Alan Downey randomly interviewed students on campus and asked them how many people were in their class, the result was that there were 90 students in each class on average. Think about it, Why is there such a big difference? "

At this time, the waiters began to put refreshments on the table one after another, but no one moved their chopsticks, and everyone's attention was on Xiao Jie.

Xiao Jie didn't expect Guan Sha or Du Jing to answer, he gave the answer directly, "Because randomly interviewing students at school is actually a random check. In other words, because there are more students in a class of 90 students, the possibility of being drawn by you is higher than that of a class of 35 students, so the results of random checks are often higher than the actual results Much bigger."

After hearing this, Du Jing looked at Guan Sha and then at Jiang Yifan, not knowing what Xiao Jie wanted to express.

"Yifan, you should also remember this example?" Xiao Jie asked Jiang Yifan.

Jiang Yifan nodded, saying that the statistics professor who once taught Xiao Jie changed jobs and went to Jiang Yifan's school, so Xiao Jie and Jiang Yifan got to know each other at an academic event held by this professor.

Jiang Yifan explained to Guan Sha and Du Jing, "In fact, the point of view to be discussed in this investigation is the paradox of inspection, that is, the phenomenon we usually observe by chance and the essence of this matter are often quite different."

Jiang Yifan then gave another similar example.

An example of this is the "Prisoner's Sentence".

If we randomly check prisoners in prisons and ask them how long they have served, many prisoners will give a very large number, such as 20 years, 70 years, or even [-] to [-] years.

But if we ask the warden for the average number of years served by all prisoners in this prison, the accurate number given by the warden after checking the historical files of all prisoners is only 3.6 years.

Why is there such a big difference between the two?

This is the paradox of the inspection, because many prisoners who served short sentences may have been released from prison during our spot check, so the proportion of those who are still in prison with long sentences has become larger. If it gets bigger, we randomly investigate it, and the result will naturally be too big.

"Let's talk a little closer to life." Xiao Jie took Jiang Yifan's words, "Usually you think that when you fly by plane, there are many passengers and the plane is very crowded. It should be lowered."

Guan Sha agrees with what Xiao Jie said. She usually flies, and there are people in the front, back, left, and right sides, and there are really few empty seats.

"But in fact, the airlines may be losing money." Xiao Jie continued, "Because it is easier for us to board those flights with many people. If there are many people, the chance of including us is greater. We have little chance to take the flight with few people. Therefore, if we go to the terminal to randomly survey passengers, many people may say that the flight is very crowded, but the real data from the airline may be that there are not many people per plane on average. If the company does not maintain high ticket prices, it will loss."

"There is no chance to get on a flight with few people..." Du Jing scratched his head and repeated the argument unconsciously. Xiao Jie concluded later that she understood, but some of the words in the middle seemed to be incomprehensible. Da is a scumbag, and the ranking has to be counted from the back to the front.

"Or let me change another example." Xiao Jie was very patient, "If you are a traffic light, for you, the time of the red light and the time of the green light are the same for you, each accounting for 50%, but if you go to the street Randomly interview drivers, most of them will give you the answer that the red light is longer than the green light, because they don’t need to stop for the green light, but they have to stop and wait for the red light. In hindsight, it seems like every intersection was always red for a long time, and it seemed like they were always at red lights."

Guan Sha continued, "Mr. Xiao, do you want to say that when we watch the anchors, it is easier to see those anchors who have many fans and are very successful, while those anchors with very few fans and few people watch? , so we will think that being an anchor seems to be easy to succeed, and you can make a lot of money."

"Yes." Xiao Jie nodded in satisfaction, while Du Jing grabbed a piece of rice rolls because she was so hungry.

"Come on, eat first." Jiang Yifan said hastily.

Seeing everyone moving their chopsticks, Guan Sha took a piece of ribs as a symbol.

She put the ribs in the bowl, turned them back and forth, and didn't eat them.

After Xiao Jie had almost finished eating, Guan Sha asked, "Mr. Xiao, we have learned about this situation when we went to the live broadcast base before. There are indeed countless small and medium-sized anchors who are difficult to make money, but I think Well, now is the Internet age, although there is a lot of competition, as long as you have real skills, you can succeed, right? For example, it is very likely that tomorrow a new anchor will surpass Ni Die and Yun Xiabai."

Xiao Jie put down his chopsticks and admitted, "Statistically, this is a small probability event, and it is almost impossible to happen. Of course, if you extend the time dimension long enough and experiment enough times, the small probability event will definitely happen. , that is to say, there will definitely be someone who surpasses Ni Die and Yun Xiabai, but I'm afraid your start-up capital and the time limit for starting your business... won't last until then."

"Brother Xiao! Don't say that, look at our Guan Sha's face, maybe it will become popular right after the broadcast, and she will be the next super anchor!"

Xiao Jie smiled and took a sip of tea, shaking his head slightly.

It has to be said that Guan Sha was very dissatisfied with Xiao Jie's shaking his head.

She may not want to do this subjectively, but if someone denies her ability and thinks that she must not be able to do this well, she will be a million times unconvinced.

"Mr. Xiao, why don't you encourage the younger generation? I haven't started yet. How do you know I can't do it?" Guan Sha looked very gentle, but she wanted to hang Xiao Jie up and beat her.

"According to the current situation, don't start." Xiao Jie said.

(End of this chapter)