Consumer God

Chapter 351 I Disagree!

Han Lie's refinement of the characteristics of the new round of bull market is completely different from the previous analysis logic, but it is so thought-provoking.

Can a lot of money be counted as a feature?
Under normal circumstances, it is not possible, because ample capital is a necessary condition for a bull market, and it belongs to the underlying foundation established by all bull markets.

Without the concentrated injection of external funds, how can it be possible to make a fortune relying entirely on the stock in the market?

However, after Han Lie added those attributives, the people of insight thought about it again and finally realized the difference.

Money is different from money, and there is a difference between more and more, and the current environment...

hiss~~~
There was a moment of silence in the venue, and suddenly there was a slight humming.

The professionals gasped, and the more they thought about it, the more surprised they became, and the more they thought about it, the more shocking they became.

Mr. Xu, who had always been quiet and low-key, finally couldn't bear it anymore. He raised his hand for a microphone, and asked with a serious expression on his frown: "Mr. Han, so do you think this round of bull market is a typical capital-driven bull market?"

Han Lie was slightly surprised.

Yo, can't you sit still?

Interesting hey...

Han Lie is very sure that in the original history, the chief rudder had a different view on this round of bull market.

When it was around 4000 points, Mr. Xu made it clear at a gathering: the current fundamentals do not support the stock market to continue to rise, and now it is a crazy stage of irrationality.

"I don't understand."

"Consistency in question."

"If you do it like this, how will it end in the end?"

Not only did he say that, but Zexi had indeed kept his short position until 5100 points.

When the net worth of all private placements was skyrocketing, he was out of luck.

This is one of the few moments when Xu Xiang lags behind his peers because he is "too timid".

Until the stock market crash happened, on July 7, he used more than 9 billion funds to enter the market to buy the bottom, and he exited the market in about half a month, with a profit of nearly 100%.

That was his battle to become a god, and it was also his last swan song in this arena.

In all fairness, Old Xu's sensitivity to the market may be one in a million. However, even a big bull like him was confused by the mad bulls at the time and then lost ground...

Then, advancing the time forward for a whole year, on March 2014, 3, the bull market has not yet shown any sign, and Han Lie has even predicted the biggest feature of the whole round of market in advance...

Who can not be shocked? !

The chief rudder's question not only failed to stop the discussion in the venue, but made all kinds of noises more chaotic.

"Mr. Xu disagrees?"

"Actually, I also think it's too outrageous..."

"But I don't think Mr. Han's logic is wrong, it's the fact!"

"The logic is indeed self-consistent, but it's only March! How will the overall environment change next year? Who can be sure?!"

"Monetary policy must change! It is impossible to continue to tighten!"

"Yes, interest rate cuts and RRR cuts are a high probability event, but what if the intensity is not as expected?!"

"Come on! If there is another money shortage this year, the real industry will die a lot!"

"Do you understand what a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy are?"

"What about real estate loan restrictions? At the meeting at the beginning of this year, the focus was on purchasing restrictions to cool down!"

"The question is, if the property market continues to decline, how long can the local government hold it?"

"I'm afraid it's not just the place that can't hold it?"

"What about conduction delay? Don't you think about it?!"

"Hey, think about the liberalization of interest rates that Mr. Han summed up at the beginning! Combined with the high probability that the US will end QE this year, we may really have to wait to turn..."

Professionals started from all angles and quarreled.

People who support Han Lie and those who can't believe it are almost evenly divided, and no one accepts the other.

Although Han Lie just said "a lot of money", it seems to be an understatement. In fact, it contains a whole set of comprehensive judgments based on economic principles, and the judgment target is the future direction of the entire macro economy.

The high content of knowledge is hard for non-professionals to imagine.

So the sense of participation is directly filled, everyone has their own opinions, and they can't complain.

In the middle of such a commotion, Han Lie spoke softly and responded positively to Mr. Xu.

"Yes, I think so. There are three basic logics."

As soon as the voice fell, the noisy venue suddenly fell silent, and more than 600 customers listened attentively.

"First, the top management has made it clear that the policy of restricting loans and purchases will not be reversed in a short period of time. After the shift, it will take some time to restore market confidence. Therefore, we judge that the downturn in the property market is unlikely to be effectively alleviated until the end of the year.

Therefore, the property market's reservoir function is temporarily locked, and there will be a large amount of funds with nowhere to go.

Second, due to the influence of international and domestic environments, the central bank's monetary policy will follow a clear curve from prudence to prudence to prudence and flexibility.

Coupled with the exploration of interest rate liberalization reforms, monetary easing is irreversibly on the way.

This part of the content is limited by the time factor, and I can't expand more. After you go back, you can feel the direction of the wind by yourself, and review the policy interpretation of Teacher Chu Hongfang.

Third, the explosive growth of Internet finance is combined with traditional private lending, and a large amount of small private capital is gathering into a sea.

Whether it is the emerging P2P industry, or the online consumer finance that has just emerged, or even commercial banks with a strong desire to export under the pressure of loan restrictions, too many funds that did not have the urge to enter the market before are just around the corner.

The three factors exert pressure together, and this year's bull market is bound to happen.

In the early stage, it will come out of a form that is no different from the previous bull market. Then, when the money-making effect spreads to a wider class, the influence of massive idle funds will appear in a very short time.

Therefore, the explosive power of this round of market will obviously exceed that of 07.

And it is not a structured market, but a general rise.

However, due to the continuous expansion of the market, the current total market value far exceeds that of that year, and the final top point is unlikely to exceed the 07 bull market.

Here, I would like to make a purely intuitive guess without any data basis for everyone-the high point of this round of bull market is difficult to break through 5200 points.

You can remember the numbers I mentioned and verify them by yourself when the time comes.

Of course, this number will not serve as any guide for my operation. I will constantly adjust my operation thinking according to the actual market trend.

At the same time, the third question I want to talk about: When will this round of bull market last?
The answer is self-explanatory.

Explosive power corresponds to a relatively short duration. This cannot be a round of slow bulls or long bulls. The duration is about equal to the closed period of my [Supernova No. [-]], within one and a half years.

The above are all my judgments and reasons for this round of bull market.

Mr. Xu, are you satisfied with my answer? "

"I am very satisfied."

Xu Xiang's expression was still serious, but he didn't say much. Instead, he handed over the microphone and quietly rested his chin in thought.

This seriousness is not anger or disapproval.

On the contrary, Xu Xiang feels that he has benefited a lot and got a lot of inspiration.

At the same time, there were many professionals who fell into thinking, and the venue gradually became quiet.

However, Han Lie didn't care at all how much time they needed to understand, and suddenly sped up the tempo.

"Then, based on the judgment of the general rise, my second fixed investment plan strikes a balance between income and safety. The investment targets are several large-cap indexes such as the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF and the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300ETF.

If you are willing to believe in my judgment and agree that the bull market is coming, but you don't know how to choose stocks, or you don't have time to pay attention to the stock market at all, then you can make fixed investment.

In view of the fact that quite a few of the VIPs who came to the scene do not have professional knowledge and long-term investment experience, I will not talk about technical terms in this part, but tell you about the real industry return rate.

As of today, there are more than 1600 private equity funds in the industry, multiple public offerings and trust products.

Among them, less than 8% of managers can outperform the market for a long time.

What does that mean?

In 2000, if you bought an index fund and held it with your eyes closed until the end of this year, your income would exceed 92% of all institutions.

Some may find it unbelievable, but it is the truth.

why?
Because outperforming the market itself is a very difficult thing, and various private equity and public equity also charge subscription fees, management fees, handling fees, and profit dividends.

They are often affected by non-market factors when conducting market operations.

In the final calculation, there are only a few products and institutions that can achieve a real compound annualized rate of return of more than 10%.

For example, Mr. Xu's Zexi is the number one in the industry.

everybody knows.

But who can name the third company and product name in the private equity industry?
Can't call out?
So there is really no need for you to be too superstitious about the so-called professionals. They are indeed more professional than you, but now that I have disclosed the specific points, where is the gap between you?
In this round of bull market, if the institutions do not do a good job of swapping positions, they may not be able to outperform the market.

However, ETF index funds have steadily outperformed the market.

At least the cost is low, and there are no fees.

Although I am also doing private equity, but you paid a lot of money to listen to my lectures, then I have to tell the truth.

I am not afraid of offending my colleagues, let alone settle accounts with everyone.

Take my [Supernova No. 5] as an example. I am indeed sure to make high profits in this bull market, but I have to receive [-]% of my management fee, and my profit sharing terms are also very strict.

In the end, the index may only have risen by 2.5 times, and my [Supernova No. 6] has made a profit of [-] times. But after deducting dividends and so on, the money I finally made from buying my fund is not necessarily better than buying ETFs. more money.

This is the truth, and my work ethic dictates that I be clear with you.

Therefore, my fund is only suitable for a few groups of people-

For example, entrepreneurs who are extremely busy with their daily work and have no time or energy to waste in the stock market.

For example, a pure newcomer with no investment foundation at all.

For example, rich and idle people who don’t want to operate by themselves, don’t want to affect their emotions every day because of market fluctuations, and pay more attention to the quality of life than making money.

For this group of people, you entrust me with your spare money, and then work and live freely, waiting for the final settlement. This is spending money to buy experience.

As for other friends who are able to operate on their own, I suggest that you should do fixed investment by yourself, and you don’t need to share with anyone if you earn more or less.

Regular investment is very simple. When the stock index reaches around 2000 points, you can directly buy ETF index funds according to your preferences, such as SSE 50 and CSI 300.

I have 500 million spare cash today, buy it.

After two months, there will be another 500 million spare cash, and the index will not rise much, so I will buy it again.

You can invest at any time before the bull market begins.

Then hold until the end of the bull market, easily doubling your investment.

It took one and a half years, and the profit was about 1.5 times without leverage, and 3 to 5 times with leverage.

The risk is almost equal to zero - enter the market at more than 1900 points, where can it fall?
In my dreams, I want to see ICBC fall below 3 yuan, and then buy it for 200 billion, but this is unrealistic.

If there is no accident, my [Sky One] will buy a considerable portion of ETF index funds with a leverage of about twice as ballast.

I am not afraid to disclose my operation ideas to you, do you dare to follow?
200 million tickets, and you talk to such a degree, not a loss, right? "

As soon as Han Lie finished speaking, the applause broke out again.

Quite a few laymen who just came to join in the fun were aroused, ready to move, enthusiastic, and wished to slap their hands into pieces.

"Teacher Han is so grand!"

People who are not familiar with Han Lie expressed their sincere emotion.

So frank, so kind, so real, he really...I cried to death!

"This is a fund manager with ability, morality, pursuit, height, and mind..."

Guys, vote for him!

And those private equity peers are going to be fucked up.

Damn, you don't want to make money yourself, so don't drag us to die together!
No... You fucking two funds are going to sell out, make a lot of money, and then turn our backs and tear us down? !
These gangsters stared at Han Lie, their teeth itching with hatred.

But it's useless.

The private equity industry is too independent and too technical.

A few so-called bigwigs can join forces to make black money, but they can't affect other colleagues.

The kind of things that often happen in other industries, where the big brothers work together to encircle the little brothers, does not exist in the private equity circle.

How to encircle and suppress?

Get together and pour in the same check, and you don't know who will carry the sedan chair for whom!

Gou Lie sacrificed his colleagues and established his image and reputation, which is a real blood profit.

Among the more than 600 people present, how many colleagues are there?

Most of them are new and old leeks. Their recognition and admiration are the most important wealth.

Then, taking advantage of this wave of mood swings, Gou Lietu started the most important operation today.

"Okay, let's stop, let's hurry up and finish all three plans for today."

Han Lie smiled and waved his hands, turning the PPT to the last two pages.

"As for the first two plans, you can operate them yourself, and they pay more attention to safety, low-risk operations that do not earn excess returns.

If you are an aggressive investor who insists on high risks and high returns, and then ask me for specific stocks, to be honest, I don't have any.

I don't know how the market will go, which sectors and which individual stocks will become kings.

I'm not a fortune teller, so I can't talk irresponsibly. I can only do my best to catch it when the market comes out.

So the third plan is the [Sky No. [-] Hybrid Steady Grading Fund] to be issued by our company.

And it is the inferior part of it.

I will personally control and operate this fund. About 50% of the position is used to buy ETF index funds, and the other 50% is to operate specific stocks to obtain high-risk excess returns.

The total amount of the inferior part is 25 billion, and 10 billion has been sold so far. Then our company will contribute 5 million by itself, and the balance will be 10 billion.

Once the income is not as expected, the priority principal and interest will be allocated from our own funds.

Since it is a high-risk product without any guarantee, please buy it carefully..."

Han Lie hadn't finished speaking before the bottom exploded.

cautious?

Be careful ass!

"Mr. Han, how do I sign up?"

Fatty Chen raised his hands vigorously, for fear that Han Lie would not see him.

Da Jinya jumped up, blushing with excitement: "Mr. Han, I'll buy [-] million!"

The craziest one was the old man from the village, who opened his mouth and said, "Mr. Han, don't sell it anymore, our fellow villager will wrap it up for you!"

Pan Shaohang swallowed, and quietly asked his father, "Dad, can we buy some?"

Pan Dajun took a sympathetic look at the fellow local tyrants, and shook his head at his son.

I would like to join in the fun, but the question is... will it be our turn?
The venue became restless due to the restlessness of the local tyrants in Dream City, and many people were loudly asking about registration matters.

Teacher Han personally operates the fund, just close your eyes and buy it!
We don't care about what is inferior and not inferior!

Some impatient people even stood up from their seats.

Before he was reborn, Han Lie had only heard from his colleagues that some of the roadshows of Niubi’s public offerings were as noisy as a vegetable market.

Now, he saw it with his own eyes.

Not only did he see it, but this scene was caused by him.

A great sense of accomplishment and satisfaction flooded into my mind crazily, making me intoxicated, comfortable and ecstatic.

Han Lie took two deep breaths to calm down the surging emotions, smiled and waved, and called Lan Xin to the podium.

Turning off the microphone, he ordered in a soft voice: "Priority is given to the registration of the local tyrants in Dream City, but the fund share will be distributed to them at the end. If it is full quickly, then each person will give you 200 million... Do you know what I mean?"

Lan Xin nodded, indicating that she knew what to do.

But she was dumbfounded.

what happened?

Were all the coal bosses invited by the boss?
It's not like... Tens of millions of ticket money have actually entered the account...

She didn't understand, but was shocked.

And Han Lie, with a smile on his face, waved to the fellow local tyrants, even nodded and bowed slightly, and kept saying "thank you" and "thank you for your love", and his attitude was so friendly and cordial.

Who said our Teacher Han was young and frivolous and arrogant?

Look, how humble!

However, Pan Dajun, who had seen through everything long ago, understood...

If you don't buy Han Lie's house, you still want to grab his share of the fund?

Go dream!

Da Jinya, you have the most money, right?

Come on, [-] per square meter of Mengyuan Daping, you can make a sample for everyone!

In the next hour, the employees in the sales department were extremely busy, and quickly registered 28 billion purchase intentions.

Brother Lie glanced at the amount, smiled slightly, and silently crossed out 12.3 billion of it in his heart.

Don't mess around!
These are your house purchase funds. What kind of fund do you buy? !

I disagree!

(End of this chapter)