Rekindling looking back has been three lives

Chapter 36 Convinced or not?
Wu Chuzhi, who has seen the two memories of parallel time and space, including his grandfather David Svensson who is present in his mind at this time, understands very well:
Mp3 seems to have a bright future now, but it is purely a short-term transitional product with its rationality.

Its function is only to completely ignite the market of 'digital products'.

When the well-known tapes and CDs were replaced by compact digital products like Mp3, people really realized the arrival of a digital revolution.

Therefore, anything, as long as it carries the word digital, becomes synonymous with trendy, forming a natural separation from traditional objects.

Digital Camera VS Traditional SLR
Digital Video Camera VS Traditional Video Camera

Digital TV VS Traditional TV
Even mobile phones, for a certain period of time, there is a dispute between 'digital mobile phones' and 'traditional mobile phones'.

And all this is the extension brought by 'Mp3 digital music player' VS 'CD, tape, vinyl'.

Why 'Mp3'?
Because in that era, it was trendy enough.

Sufficiency has never been the concept of MAX, but the concept of 'sufficiency and surplus'.

This kind of thing, as a gift, can be handed out, and it does not fall into the clichés of the tobacco and alcohol culture, and it also shows the care of the elders for the younger generation.

Of course, compared with Mp4, digital cameras, mobile phones, digital video cameras, and notebooks, the main thing is that they are cheap.

It is not uncommon for a college entrance examination candidate to receive four or five Mp3s after the exam.

……

Looking at Chu Tianshu's gloomy face, Wu Chuzhi's heart skipped a beat, and he continued to talk, "Uncle, what advantages do you think Mp3 has?"

Chu Tianshu calmly replied, "Low power consumption, easy to download songs, and most importantly, small size, easy to carry."

In fact, there is another advantage, almost free.

But whether this is an advantage or a devil, no one can tell.

The popularity of an audio compression technology has caused the music industry to face 20 years of constant decline and frequent deterioration.

Wu Chuzhi didn't intend to worry about this little uncle's omission, so he nodded, "What if the advantage of 'small size and easy to carry' disappears?"

Chu Tianshu frowned, and Li Fugen next to him couldn't help interjecting, "No way, no matter how small an Mp3 is, it won't be too small. Could it be turned into a button?"

Wu Chuzhi shook his head, "It will be replaced, just like it replaced the CD player."

Gong Ming became puzzled, "That's not right, Chuchu, I admit that there will definitely be more advanced players to replace it in the future, but if you want to talk about 'portability', I personally think that no matter how small it is, there will be little difference .”

In their view, Mp3 is small enough as a digital player.

No matter how small it is, the operability and ease of use will be restricted, and the buttons cannot be pressed.

What's more, people don't like things that are too small and cute, even girls.

One requirement above portability is: ease of grip.

If it is too small, it will not feel good in the hand, and if it is too big, it will not be good. This is a matter of fit.

Wu Chuzhi laughed, "Well... I guess I didn't make it clear. When I said replace, I meant that the functions were integrated. Mp3, as a music player, would be integrated into something we often use now. "

He didn't hold back, and took out his Nuojiya N-GAGE, "It's a mobile phone, just like my mobile phone integrated a game console."

Li Fugen picked up the phone suspiciously, "Chuchu, are you trying to say that people will use their phones to listen to music in the future?"

Gong Ming shook his head, and said decisively, "Impossible, absolutely impossible! Mobile phones, also called mobile phones, output monophonic sound from their earphones.

So, clearly, you can see that the matching earplugs on the market are all single-ear earphones.However, the Mp3 music format output is high-fidelity stereo music. "

Wu Chuzhi laughed loudly, "Uncle Gong, think about it from another angle? It's nothing more than replacing one ear with two ears.

Since the mobile phone has built-in Mp3, how can it be possible to use a single-ear headset?Even the speaker unit inside the phone will make corresponding changes. "

It's not Gong Ming's fault, it's completely the inertial thinking in the thinking pattern: your thinking extends in a linear way ahead of your thinking, and temporarily closes the direction of other thinking.

Of course, Gong Ming's thinking can also be related to the pike thinking.

Wu Chuzhi turned to Li Fugen, "Uncle Li, it's not about the future, but what's happening now. In fact, my mobile phone can not only play games, but also watch videos and listen to music. It's just a pair of high-fidelity headphones. thing."

"But your mobile phone costs more than 4000, and the original configuration is a 64MB MMC card. You upgraded to 1GB, and you spent more than 3000. The sum is enough to buy ten Mp3s," Chu Tianshu said angrily.

Although this kid earned it himself, his temper of not treating money as money is also a headache.

Wu Chuzhi smiled embarrassedly, he was indeed a bit of a prodigal before.

Up to now, the biggest contribution of this 1G memory card is to pull it out and insert it into MP4 for Qin Wan to watch dramas, and he will complain about eye pain after watching for a long time.

This is purely meaningless consumption behavior, just for the sake of freshness for a while.

"However, this is an irreversible trend. It is a consensus that feature phones will become cheaper and cheaper. It will be a matter of time before Mp3 is integrated, and it is not far away."

Li Fugen held his mobile phone, looked left and right, and hissed, "Although mobile phones are getting cheaper and cheaper now, I think the current main direction of various manufacturers is still developing towards business needs.

After all, a mobile phone is a communication tool, and it may not be realistic to integrate entertainment-oriented functions. "

"Uncle Li, think about the Sony Ericsson brand. Why did these two companies set up this joint venture?" Wu Chuzhi said leisurely.

Gong Ming, who is in charge of sales of digital products and is familiar with the market, was startled suddenly. He suddenly remembered the Sony Ericsson mobile phone that had not been launched in the domestic market, and unconsciously called out, "SO505i!".

The main function of the mobile phone equipped with Suoni’s own Memory Stick Duo is audio and video, and the “disc-shaped shuttle knob” on the body is a complete audio and video player design.

Wu Chuzhi opened Qiandu on the computer, searched for a bunch of pictures, and asked them to look around, "From the mobile phones currently released by Sony Ericsson, we can see that mobile phones are now transforming into entertainment.

Since the mobile phone can integrate the camera, why not integrate the Mp3, which is less difficult? "

Chu Tianshu pondered for a moment with a gloomy face, then shook his head and laughed, "There is an old saying, after all, money touches people's hearts!

Chuchu, I won’t hide it from you, I want to make Mp3, the main reason is that the other party’s transfer price is so tempting, so tempting that even after listening to your analysis, I still can’t let go. "

Li Fugen asked suspiciously, "Boss, how much did Boss Zhou call the transfer price just now?"

For this negotiation, only the bosses of the companies involved were present, and no one below knew the details of the negotiation.

Chu Tianshu rubbed his brows, "He called for 600 million, and I paid back 400 million. I packaged and purchased 8 production lines of the entire company with a one-year lease of the factory area, the company's appearance patents and licenses, and 30 production hands."

"So cheap?" Both Gong Ming and Li Fugen were surprised.

A complete production line costs hundreds of thousands, and it is indeed a good deal to buy a factory that is operating normally for 600 million.

However, Boss Chu's counter-offer was even more ruthless, no wonder Boss Zhou disagreed desperately there.

Even if it is sold at a loss, 400 million...

This is purely a real money grab.

Wu Chuzhi looked at the three of them blankly, he had no idea about this.

Looking at the two people's wide-open eyes, Chu Tianshu laughed, "Don't stare at me, they also use male models to make them, and they don't have any technical content. The so-called R&D team is just for appearance. design.

And he also made a lot of money last year. I mainly took advantage of his eagerness to transform to MP4, thinking about lowering the price. For him, time is more valuable.

Therefore, the possibility of reaching the intention in the end is very high. "

Gong Ming pondered again and again, his face was full of entanglements, "Cheap is indeed cheap, but after Chu Chu's analysis, I really don't know the bottom line."

Chu Tianshu turned his head and looked at Wu Chuzhi, "What do you think? Can this business be done?"

Wu Chuzhi was speechless.

He only dared to roll his eyes in his heart, what the fuck, here he is again.

They said I'm not Yuan Fang anymore!
Wu Chuzhi thought for a while, then laughed, "This business can be done."

Li Fugen frowned, "Chuchu, didn't you just say that this industry has no future, and entering now is a dead end?"

Gong Ming also said beside him, "Chuchu, you're really contradicting yourself. Although the price is indeed cheap, it's actually not that expensive to build a new factory from scratch. It's all a model design, with no technical content. "

Wu Chuzhi shook his head, "Uncle Li, Uncle Gong, doing business is actually a process of seeking profit from capital. I don't think there is any industry that must die as long as it can be settled."

Seeing that the three elders all looked like they had seen a ghost, he could only shrug helplessly. After all, his words were indeed too contradictory.

"Whether the transaction price is cheap or not, we can't look at it separately. At this point in time, if it is a ready-made production line and skilled workers, we have won at least half a year compared to building a factory.

And the time of this half year is very critical.

Mp3 is indeed a sunset industry, and my view of the industry has not changed.But in the process of the decline of the sunset industry, it is not impossible to make money.

My uncle returned a low price of 400 million yuan, but the other party didn't reject it outright and let it go, but continued to talk painfully over there, which shows that my uncle has reached his pain point.

I estimate that 400 million is the minimum profit that Boss Zhou thinks is the minimum profit to continue production.And when we buy it, as long as the sales gross profit is greater than 400 million, it is profitable.

Everything comes back to one point, the four words 'seeking profit from capital'.In my opinion, to do or not to do it depends on the score. "

After that, he took a pen and paper from Chu Tianshu's desk, "What is their current net profit per unit? It should be there."

Chu Tianshu smiled, "It said it was 137 yuan, I checked it, and it was 102 yuan."

Wu Chuzhi pondered for a moment, wrote down a 30 yuan on the paper, and then explained, "I said that this year the entire Mp3 market must be reshuffled, and the dive of high-end products will definitely swallow up the profits of low-end products. Be conservative and discount the net profit by [-]%."

"Is it too harsh? It's not that serious right now." Looking at the numbers on the paper, Gong Ming's mouth twitched.

Wu Chuzhi shook his head, "Uncle Gong, this should be a flat number, I guess it should be a negative number in the later stage, when the group flees.

We are small in size, and a small boat has the advantage of turning around quickly, but unlike a big boat, we can see far, and our perception of wind and waves is not enough.

And when the wave comes is determined by the big ship, so we will definitely lose in the future, it's just the difference between more and less. "

He turned his head to look at Chu Tianshu, "Uncle, we are the general agent of HY Electronics, so we should have an advantage over Boss Zhou when it comes to his flash memory?"

Chu Tianshu nodded, "I've also asked about this, and we are 18 yuan cheaper than them if we count the rebates. If we work hard, we can get more, but it's not much more."

Wu Chuzhi recorded a 12 yuan on the paper, then picked up the calculator, immersed himself in the calculation.

After a while, he raised his head, "We use the most stringent standard of 42 yuan for a single unit to calculate, and we need to sell 95238 units to pay back the cost.

如果我们按照净利每增加10元为刻度去测算，到82元时，分别需要76923、64516、55555、48780台才能回本。

So now we need Uncle Gong to estimate which sales figure we can achieve. "

Gong Ming closed his eyes and remained silent for a while, "According to our agent's experience, as long as we are willing to run, 8 units is not a big problem."

Wu Chuzhi looked up the IDC's three-year industry forecast report based on the data in the first quarter of this year on the computer. The forecast for the entire industry this year is 3 million units.

This kind of industry forecast report is based on the forecast of the previous data of this year. The number of this year is relatively reliable.

"2500 million units, take a discount, 2000 million units, we have 8 units, a market share of [-]/[-], it should be reasonable.

Uncle, what is the previous data of Boss Zhou and the others? "

Chu Tianshu took out the folder and looked through it, "Last year it was 1.31%, and in the first quarter of this year it was 1.02%."

Hearing this number, Wu Chuzhi felt confident, "Then I think this business can be done. There are two different ways to play it."

After his deduction, Chu Tianshu and the other three were not fools, so they naturally understood that the business would be a good deal with the time difference between fast forward and fast exit.

After all, Wu Chuzhi discounted too much when calculating the net profit. They estimated that the net profit of a single unit should be at least 80 yuan, that is, 48000 units can cover the cost, and the excess is profit.

According to Gong Ming's forecasted sales, with an investment cost of 400 million, he can earn about 250 million in half a year, which is quite astonishingly efficient.

But Wu Chuzhi said that there are two ways to play, which made them unable to understand.

Looking at their puzzled eyes, Wu Chuzhi laughed, "One is fast in and fast out, needless to say, you all know it in the three old lives.

The other is to play bigger.Since you want to use Mp3 as a future cash flow pillar, uncle, we will play it intensively. "

Chu Tianshu hissed, "Chu Chu, don't talk big, tell me what you think carefully."

Wu Chuzhi turned on the kettle again, and said calmly after boiling the water, "It's actually very simple. From the perspective of the Mp3 player industry, the trend of future decline is unchangeable.

However, like traditional CDs and vinyl records, professionalism will lead to the existence of high-end products that still have a certain market space.When I say high-end, I mean the real high-end technology.

Just like the sound card on our computer, the current motherboard has integrated the sound card, and most users no longer need to purchase an additional sound card as before.

But for users who have a professional pursuit of sound, professional sound cards will still exist.Even, because of the scarcity problem, the price of professional sound cards has skyrocketed.

The number of sales is indeed small, but the profit margin of a single unit is very large, and the life is actually very nourishing. "

"This... is very difficult to realize..." Chu Tianshu was a little dumbfounded.

Wu Chuzhi shrugged his shoulders, "It's difficult to say, easy to say, and it's just a waste of money. Mp3 players are actually composed of LCD screens, microprocessors, digital signal processor (DSP) chips, input and output controllers, and amplifiers. and some buttons.

The current high-end and low-end points are nothing more than the difference in components.And when I talk about high-end, besides materials, it is more about algorithms. This belongs to the software category, and it is a matter of a research institute. "

Chu Tianshu rolled his eyes, "It's easy to say! How can a small company like the Research Institute afford it!"

Wu Chuzhi laughed straight, "Uncle, this is really not difficult. The current manufacturers are basically playing with hardware. In fact, everyone is an assembler. For the deep research of decoding algorithms, everyone is on the same starting line.

We don't need to be very professional at the beginning. The early stage is the same as fast in and fast out. We will do low-end first, and then maintain the brand all the time, even if it is not profitable.

As long as you don't die, the winner is king. If you keep the brand in the market and concentrate on research and development, it will naturally produce results in the later stage.

And in terms of sales, Uncle Gong should have only estimated sales over the counter, and didn't think about online shopping, right?Now online shopping is very popular in the college student market, and it may be more than counter sales.

So this business, in fact, has great potential, I really want to play, there are too many ways to play.

But there is a premise that this business must be won for 400 million!There is a profit bottom line in it, and there is room for imagination behind it. If we make a mistake, we will not lose money. "

Chu Tianshu was silent for a while, then smiled suddenly and raised his brows at Gong Ming and Li Fugen, "Are you convinced? Don't worry?"

Gong Ming shook his hands again and again, "I said earlier that Chuchu is a natural fit for business."

Li Fugen sighed, "As long as he does it seriously, I have no problem at all."

Such a conversation made Wu Chuzhi's heart beat, and he asked tentatively, "Uncle, what are you talking about? Why do I feel that you are all acting weird today."

……

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