Rekindle 2003

Chapter 817 Business Cycle (1)

'a waste of resource'?
Qing Yun smiled.

It’s enough as long as the key core is controllable, right?
He had once thought so naively.

but……

The experiences in his previous life dealt him a heavy blow.

What is the key core?
What you lack is this!

When urea can become the core, you will know what the key is!
However, Qing Yun would not curse or anything.

After all, it is rogue to discuss a character's thoughts out of the context of the times.

Just like the Cheng Jin incident, he could only defuse the bomb alone.

Good thing...

He is a scientific keyboard warrior.

Moreover, he is a scientific research keyboard warrior with market vision who was trained by a business godfather like Qin Tianchuan.

Qing Yun took a deep breath, then smiled, "Teacher, of course I want to develop peacefully.

With our country's current GDP growth rate, we can say that our future is bright, isn't that right?"

Li Guangnan nodded slightly when he heard this.

Wang Yangyuan was also trying to smooth things over, "That's right, Mr. Xiaoqing, young people like you should be optimistic."

Qing Yun laughed and said, "My dear seniors, our GDP last year was 1.47 trillion US dollars, ranking sixth in the world. One day, when we surpass Sakura and become the second in the world...

Dear seniors, please don't shake your heads. This will happen very quickly. If you don't believe me, let us calculate it.
According to our current average annual GDP growth rate of 11%, it will take less than 10 years to surpass the cherry blossoms. This data comes out at the click of a button on the calculator. "

As he spoke, he picked up the calculator on the conference table and handed it to Li Guangnan. Then he gestured on the computer and pointed at the projection screen and said,

“My dear predecessors, last year Sakura’s GDP was 4.18 trillion, in 2001 it was 4.37 trillion, in 2000 it was 4.97 trillion, and in 1995 it was 5.55 trillion. It is declining.

There are many reasons for the decline, but essentially we all understand that America doesn't want it to grow anymore.

Well, let's make an assumption that it will not decline in the future based on this current situation."

He simply operated the computer and calculated using the formula in the spreadsheet.
"Regardless of exchange rate changes, our exchange rate will definitely appreciate.

The result... is just like this!
ten years!

It only takes ten years!
Don’t talk about GDP per capita. Talking about GDP per capita at this stage is just bullying. The country with the highest GDP per capita in the last century was beaten into a mess. "

It surpassed in less than ten years, and tripled in less than eight years.

This is a turbulent and magnificent development history, but at this moment at the beginning of the century, it is unimaginable.

A big shot in the conference room stared at the numbers on the screen, stunned.

"Can we...can we really do it?" Wang Shouwu's voice trembled.

Qing Yun shrugged his shoulders. "Why not? The economic model is here, and the result is this. It only takes ten years for us to become the world's second largest company."

The little transparent Shi Guangyong beside him twitched his eyes, and wanted to jump out and yell, "How can the economic model be as simple as this kid said?!"

But at this moment he could only sit in his seat and watch his junior fellow apprentice pretend to be cool and fool this group of economically illiterate people.

After all, economists have positions too.

Yes, a bunch of economic illiterates.

In his opinion, no matter they are old men and women in their fifties and sixties such as Li Guangnan and Huang Lingyi, or white-bearded men in their seventies and eighties such as Wang Shouwu and Wang Yangyuan, or the younger ones in their thirties such as Hu Weiwu, they are undoubtedly pure scientific research staff who are respectable and worthy of taking off their hats to salute.

However, as this cheap junior brother said, semiconductors are an industry.

Industry is an economic term, and it must follow economic laws.

Scientific research is just one part of this industry.

Qing Yun stood up from the computer and spread his hands, "Dear teachers, when we become the second in the world, if we continue to develop like this...

Do you think America will hand over the world's number one throne to us?"

Everyone present could only shake their heads woodenly.

Being gentle, respectful and modest is not Yingzi's style.

“Don’t worry, Yingzi will definitely take action, just like he did to Old Bear, Hans the Cat, and Sakura.

Whoever becomes the second in the world will be Yingzi's enemy.

I don’t know how our country will develop peacefully and become the world’s number one in the future. This is not a question I should consider at this level.

All I know is that, at least in the semiconductor industry, there will be a battle between us and America!
Just like what they did to Sakura at the end of the last century, in 88, Sakura’s semiconductor chip production accounted for 91% of the world’s total, and its output value accounted for 67% of the global chip industry!”

At this point, Qing Yun stood there and said softly, "But what then?"

Then he raised his voice and yelled, "And then!"

Yundi's face was full of mockery, "Then came the first chip war in human history.

In 1989, America forced Sakura to sign the Semiconductor Security Agreement, which unconditionally opened Sakura's semiconductor industry's intellectual property and patents to America.

In 1991, America once again forced Sakura to sign the Second Semiconductor Agreement, requiring America Semiconductor to reach a 40% market share in Sakura and to establish a price monitoring mechanism to prevent Sakura Semiconductor from "dumping" to third countries.

At the same time, in order to fight against Sakura, America supported the less developed Shinra company in the semiconductor industry, and licensed technology and "guided" Shinra to obtain Toshiba's production line. "

Ordinary people may not be clear about this history, but industry insiders and scientific researchers are very clear about it.

Even many people envied Silla at that time. There was actually such a stuffed pie falling from the sky!
Silla's semiconductor industry was simply fed by the United States.

Qing Yun looked at the old men and women in the office and said sincerely,

“My dear seniors, perhaps one day in the future, a military war will not break out due to various factors.

But in terms of technology, at least high-intensity competition and confrontation is inevitable.

How to compete and confront? Where is the carrier of competition and confrontation? "

At this point, he pointed to himself and said, "Companies like ours are the leading enterprises in the industrial chains of each country.

Competition in the modern economy is competition within the entire industrial chain, and competition within the industrial chain depends on competition among the chain-leading companies.

It’s a competition where one industry chain defeats another industry chain!”

Qing Yun sighed, "So, I don't want to discuss the route issues of 'technology, industry and trade, trade, industry and technology' or 'administration and market'. I urge all teachers to listen to the semiconductor industry from a business perspective today."

Li Guangnan, Xu Duanyi, Huang Lingyi, and the other experts sitting in the conference room looked at each other, and then sat up straight.

Huang Lingyi smiled slightly, "Okay, Xiaoqing, let's listen to your perspective as well."

Qing Yun pulled over the whiteboard in the conference room and wrote four words neatly on it:

Business cycle.

“Human commerce has four basic material circulation systems.

Production end—transportation end—sales end—recycling end.

This is the original model from ancient times to the present day, with an architecture built entirely between 'land and sky'.

Among these four major terminals, among them:

On the production side, it carries all the material and spiritual production and creation in society;
The transport end is responsible for the spatial displacement of the produced materials and spirits;
The sales side is responsible for distributing these products to people in need in the market;

The recycling end is responsible for recycling discarded products on the market, breaking them down into raw materials, and ultimately recycling useful materials.

This original business cycle is completely affected by "the sky, weather, land geology, and space size".

This is commonly known as the cycle of "depending on the weather for your livelihood", so the ancients always respected nature.

As for us, such as scientific research institutions, research organizations, and manufacturers, the commercial interest community we have formed is the production end of the entire semiconductor industry.

It is also the most important port in the semiconductor industry's business cycle.

As long as the production end is gone, all subsequent cycles will be out of the question.

Emmm...

Let’s take traditional industries as an example. In reality, the production end exists in the form of raw material companies such as agricultural machinery and agricultural supplies manufacturers, xxx construction companies, XXXX training institutions, xxx schools, metal, stone, plant and crop companies. Is this easy to understand?

They are at the absolute top of the industry in business.

Among listed companies, upstream enterprises are usually very expensive and valuable, which also proves their importance in the society.

They are not in an exposed position in society, so they are not easily seen by people. Therefore, they make all manufacturing companies prone to business problems such as "overweight assets", "overstocking", "high capital costs", "long payment period", and "extremely high sales speed requirements". "

The bigwigs in the conference room listened attentively, but Shi Guangyong, who was sitting in the back of the third faction, had a huge wave in his heart.

Good guy!
This kid...

Every sentence is about the major factors on the supply side.

A natural supply-side economist?

Shi Guangyong slapped his forehead and suddenly realized.

What is natural?!
But in the domestic PC market, which is a red ocean, and the international semiconductor industry market, which is a red ocean, the supply-side reform theory of "three cuts, one reduction and one supplement" represented by his teacher Zeng Huixian is most in line with the interests of this little bastard!

He is born with the need to reduce overcapacity, reduce inventory, deleverage, reduce costs, and make up for shortcomings!

Therefore, as an entrepreneur, Qing Yun will continue to ponder his own production and operation theory in order to better stand on the name of "righteousness"!
No wonder even those who are so shameless are willing to become the teacher's disciples!

He is indeed a businessman!
Qing Yun over there was getting more and more into the mood, pointing at the PPT that Xiao Ya had put out, and making bold statements.
“If we think of the business cycle as ‘a river’, then in this river it is clear that the ‘production end’, the source of this river, is the atmospheric precipitation layer;

The carrying end is the flowing water of the river, which determines the length and speed of the river;
The sales end is the lakes and ocean reservoirs downstream of the rivers;

The recycling end is the very end of the river, or the atmospheric rain layer.

Through such visualization, we can clearly see that the entire business cycle,
In fact, it is a cyclic process like the weather system.

It is constantly producing the states of 'nothingness' and 'something'.
These states transform into each other and finally form the composition, transfer and disappearance of matter.

The entire business cycle is actually a cycle of iteration and renewal of all biological substances, a cycle of alternation between new and old substances.

The fundamental reason is that everything that exists must have a life cycle. Within its cycle, there is an invisible force (natural order) that controls the energy consumption of all things.

It is this loss that leads to people's need for the replacement of old and new materials, the need for material transactions, the need to establish a business system, and fundamentally leads to the "generation of demand", which ultimately forms all the business activities we see in our daily lives.

So people in society are both consumers and producers.

Everyone must solve the problem of infinite "loss" caused by the rules of the natural environment by purchasing and consuming goods, and finally return to the melting pot of society by recycling goods and returning them to the factory.

The production side determines the price of raw materials and the quality characteristics of the product itself;
The handling end is the longest, which determines the commercial production efficiency and turnover time;

The sales side controls the most traffic, which determines the industry's competitiveness (blue ocean, red ocean) and the industry's overall profits;
The recycling end controls a large amount of social raw materials, which determines the industry's circulation speed and industry costs, and ultimately determines the industry's overall cost efficiency."

……

(End of this chapter)