Reboot 2003

Chapter 80 080: Gray Rhino and Black Swan

Chen Qin certainly has his reasons for being terrified and watching the news over and over again every day—it’s not just unfounded worries, and it’s not just a crisis intuition. For entrepreneurs, this concept can be called “risk control”, just like the Heinrich law describes—when a major safety accident occurs in a company, it is likely to have [-] safety accidents that have not been taken seriously, and accompanied by [-] hidden dangers that may lead to safety accidents.

These hidden dangers will not necessarily lead to accidents, but if risk control is not carried out, they will almost certainly lead to accidents... Of course, in the more confrontational financial field, risk control is more difficult, and the actual situation is often more complicated——

Simple risks are always the best solutions, such as the confidentiality risks of the 'Manjun Group', or the negotiation risks caused by disagreements within the company. These risks can be resolved in a timely manner as long as they are aware of.

What Chen Qin was worried about before was another risk, which is usually called the 'grey rhinoceros'——

From the noun point of view, the gray rhinoceros is a huge, docile, group of animals. They are usually harmless to humans and animals. As long as they are not provoked, they are as non-existent as the background board on the grassland.

But once they get mad, they will cause great danger. They are obviously the source of risk, and it is difficult for people to eliminate them all in order to control risk.

As for the way to deal with it, it is also very simple, that is to coexist with it to a certain extent. On the one hand, more resources can be freed up and invested in more effective financial competition.

Chen Qin was worried about this before. What he was worried about was a 'grey rhinoceros'. He thought that this risk was probably well documented, maybe some policy adjustments, or some destructive measures from competitors...

In short, these 'gray rhinos' obviously exist, and they have not made trouble before, but this does not mean that they will remain silent.

However, in the financial market, 'grey rhinoceros' is not the only source of external risk. In addition to 'grey rhinoceros', there is another more famous term in the financial field——

That is the 'black swan'.

Everyone believes that swans are white, and never thought that there is a black swan, but one day it appeared..."Black swan" refers to a kind of accident that occurs infrequently or even unpredictable, but can cause subversive results.

Compared with the "grey rhino", its characteristic may be that most people can't even think of it-although the gray rhino is easy to be ignored, it is often foreseeable to a certain extent, such as the subprime mortgage crisis and the housing bubble. These problems have always existed, but no one will take the initiative to solve them.

'Black Swan' was different.

The black swan is a completely unplanned change, and it is difficult for anyone to directly grasp it. It just happened to affect the financial field and brought completely unplanned chaos to the accident...

From this point of view, the black swan may be completely unavoidable; in fact, Wall Street in this era has little awareness of controlling off-market risks, even the obvious financial bomb of the subprime mortgage crisis, not many people care about it, let alone other more unpredictable risks.

But for entrepreneurs in 2023, awareness of the management of external risks has already begun to take root in the hearts of the people - at this moment, Chen Qin had this premonition.

Maybe...not the Gray Rhino.

It's a black swan.

Although the black swan is called the black swan because it is so special, it is almost impossible to predict it.

But Chen Qin has this kind of experience——

'Grey rhinos' usually take place in the debt and justice arena, while 'black swans', although involving a meteorite razing a company to the ground, in practice tend to take place in policy and public relations.

If we only look at the policy field, there shouldn't be too much risk in Kuaikan Media now. As a reborn person, Chen Qin is quite sure about this matter.

But the two-way interaction between business behavior and social culture is undoubtedly well documented.Reporters, interviews, advertising companies, and a fight in the capital...Although these things have nothing to do with ordinary people, they will enter ordinary life sooner or later. In this era when Internet media is not yet developed, who will it pose a threat to?
The answer seems to be very clear, this is neither Kuaikan Media, nor is it likely to be an ordinary person like Lao Xu.

It is Chen Qin himself who is protected by secrets. If the media is a woodpecker that preys on public relations, then Santiago is like a diseased tree with obvious moths...

Thinking of this, Chen Qin felt confident.

Perhaps this kind of thing is unavoidable, but the public relations crisis is not completely without countermeasures. On the one hand, its influence itself is not as great as it seems. On the other hand, as long as the decline in public opinion does not occur so completely, its impact can always be bridged by time.

So Chen Qin pondered, looking at the composition text in his hand.

Finally picked up the pen and started to write the first paragraph of text on it...

Early the next morning, the black swan came.

"Follow-up to the 126 Beating Incident: The perpetrator was actually the manager of Kuaikan Media's parent company!" "

A conspicuous report appeared on the homepage of Sina. Although everyone did not know what the 126 incident was, the report said that during the China Internet Conference, a manager of an Internet company beat a private entrepreneur near the Imperial Hotel. His face was covered in blood, and he was sent to the hospital by 120.

As for the perpetrator, everyone was very curious before... Although because of this incident, they had never seen the newspaper before, and they didn't know who they were referring to, but it didn't matter.

In short, it was the manager of Kuaikan Media's parent company who beat him. This company is Waiguo, the largest shareholder of Kuaikan Media at present. Now he dares to beat people in the imperial capital. It's really against the sky!
After the report appeared, it did not immediately trigger a huge response. After all, it takes time for everyone to click on the webpage, read the news, and then discuss with each other. If there is a news platform now, there will definitely be many discussions below, and public opinion will quickly ferment during the discussion. But even so, the public relations party still has "golden 72 hours" to respond to public opinion.

It is still in the era of paper media, and Sina, as the most "media" platform among the three major portals, also adopts the paper media model.

After the report appeared, the first to be alarmed were the executives of Kuaikan Media.

Early in the morning, Gu Wenjie answered the phone in the office, and frowned upon hearing this.

Recently, I took a quick look at the important nodes of the second round of financing. The influence of public relations on the negotiations obviously exists. In fact, this news did have a lot of influence. After all, the person who called to tell him about this matter was the opponent of this negotiation. This sudden change made Gu Wenjie a little annoyed.

He hurriedly called his partner 'Chen Aotian', but 'Chen Aotian' was usually not there in the morning on weekdays, he was used to this habit, but it was a bit maddening not to be able to contact anyone at critical moments.

Gu Wenjie had to be patient, and asked the new secretary to send an email through the mailbox. Chen Aotian replied quickly, but the content only had three words 'understand'.

(End of this chapter)