Lin Gao Qiming

Chapter 2553
"Mr. Ren and I began to pay attention to this matter shortly after the appearance of paper cotton. We also visited the original futures exchange, Qingyunlou Teahouse. Speaking of which, Comrade Wumu also placed a few people in it. Personally—of course, he didn’t want to prevent financial risks, he was purely worried about any conspiracy.” Chuhe said.

"Generally speaking, there is nothing special about this matter. It can only be regarded as a bizarre product of the intertwining of market changes and human greed. It is very interesting and has great research value."

Li Shan got tired of hearing it, thinking that your nonsense is over!

Chuhe said that, in fact, the beginning of the paper cotton incident was much earlier than the opening of Wanguo.The time point is at the beginning of this year.

"...In fact, the beginning is very simple. The demand for cotton cloth rises, causing the market price to rise, followed by a series of chain-reaction rises in cotton yarn and cotton."

Since the Senate restored Guangzhou, the demand for cotton cloth has been expanding year by year.With the successive occupations of Guangdong and Guangxi and the continuous establishment of political institutions, various relocations to the north and new government agencies and factories are expanding, and the naturalized civilian class is also rapidly expanding. "Uniforms" are in great demand.

Originally, this increase in demand was relatively moderate, but the appearance of Nanyang Company changed this phenomenon.

The Nanyang Company's largest project is the South Vietnam Development Program, for which the largest expeditionary operation since Operation Engine will be conducted.It is estimated that more than 1 immigrants will be sent to South Vietnam, and in the next five years, an additional [-] immigrants will be immigrated each year.

The amount of food and supplies needed by immigrants of this scale can be described as massive.Especially basic necessities cotton cloth.Although Nanyang Company has adopted the method of purchasing in small batches and multiple batches in order to avoid large-scale purchases from affecting market stability, the cotton cloth market in the market has risen in response, and it has risen from the beginning of the year to the present.

To be honest, Li and Zou are so optimistic about the cotton textile industry, which is also largely affected by this wave of market conditions.

"...This is the data from the "Business Monthly" published by the statistics department since October last year. We copied the statistics related to the cotton textile industry--here, the relevant figures are not necessarily accurate, but approximate. The situation can still be seen. The transaction volume of cotton yarn is too small to be ignored, but the price and transaction volume of flowers and cloth are rising month by month. This year the rate is even greater. Taking the average price of October last year as the benchmark price, The monthly increase in November, December and January has exceeded 5%, and it has completely become a wild horse in February. The monthly increase in cotton cloth has exceeded 7.5%, and it has reached 10% in March. If the import of cotton cloth from Songjiang hadn't been increased, the increase in cotton cloth would have been even greater—even so, the average price of cotton cloth in May this year has exceeded 50% compared with October last year. This is quite an astonishing figure.

The first reason is that Nanyang Company’s overseas development steps have been accelerated, and more clothing, tents and other cotton products need to be stocked; Take a rest.Their military uniforms have to be updated, and these military supplies alone involve more than [-] sets of military uniforms.

In addition to the army, Nanyang companies and sporadic "government procurement", there is another key element: inflation.

Since the Senate issued new coins in Guangzhou, the amount of silver dollar certificates has been continuously increased.The financial system maintains the basic credit of silver dollar certificates through various means, but inflation does not depend on human will.Social prices are quietly rising.

Fortunately, the necessities of life in this time and space are limited. Through the unique means of remote communication and transportation in this time and space, the Senate can quickly grasp the food situation in various places and quickly stabilize the price of food, so as to maintain a stable situation.

"In this way, the surge in cotton products has a lot to do with inflation..."

"Yes, one reason is the contradiction between supply and demand, and the other is inflation." Ren Youzi nodded and said, "It can be said that the current market prosperity and high prices are actually false. You only need to read the relevant reports to know that the current The largest customer in the market is the Senate itself. And this kind of bulk purchase will not last for too long. Nanyang Company has begun to reduce the purchase volume this month, and then the purchase volume of joint logistics will also be reduced. In the long run, the cotton textile market There will be a period of recession. If you want to have new growth, I am afraid that you can only find a way in the export of cotton cloth."

"Defeat Indian cloth and Songjiang cloth."

"That's right. In fact, the current plight of cotton is precisely because the two giants are still alive and well, cutting off cotton from the upstream." Chuhe said, "Let's continue to the topic."

Because the price of cotton cloth rose, so did the price of cotton.There is a tight supply situation.Originally, it was the "flower cloth shop" that supplied cotton to the market.This "flower cloth" is not calico, but "cotton, cotton cloth".The situation of "prices but no market" often occurs in the flower cloth industry, and the supply of cotton is intermittent.In order to ensure that their own machinists can have cloth weaving, some cloth shops began to pay in advance and purchase "invoices".

At first, this method of prepayment was just a commercial "deposit". The buyer paid the deposit and how many loads of cotton he bought.After the arrival of the goods, the deposit will be deducted according to the market price, and then the balance payment will be settled and the goods can be picked up.It is nothing more than a promise made by buyers to ensure their own supply.

Gradually, some people saw the speculative nature of it.As a result, the first full pre-order inventory was released.The pre-purchase warehouse order does not settle the balance payment according to the price at the time of delivery, but directly prepays the full amount according to the current market price, and then delivers the goods after the goods arrive.

This approach is essentially to avoid the risk of future price increases or supply cuts, and is a common practice in business.Not only did the Dutch do this, but silkworm farmers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang also did similar operations.

"It stands to reason that this is not a new thing. It is nothing more than a bet on the expected price fluctuations in the future. But I don't know which smart person came up with a routine that can be endorsed and transferred." Chuhe laughed, "This person I I really want to get to know him and ask him how he came up with it."

Once transferable, this stack has the attributes of hype and speculation.In particular, the cotton market continues unabated, and in a state of rising steadily, buy a stack order and resell it at a higher price.Earn money right away.

Once such a short, flat and quick means of making money is discovered, it immediately becomes the focus of speculation.All of a sudden, all the calico shops began to sell stack slips.

"At the beginning, the inventory was very standardized. It had a clear issue name, delivery date, quantity and grade of the delivered cotton. Moreover, when each flower cloth store discovered it, it still had some 'estimates'. I have a good idea of ​​how much goods can be delivered, and the number of warehouse receipts issued is still limited. But then everyone is jealous of this costless transaction..."

Then it became more and more chaotic.Originally, only flower cloth shops issued warehouse receipts. As the speculative trend intensified, cloth shops, silk and satin shops, embroidery shops... as long as shops related to textiles all competed to issue cotton warehouse receipts, and later cotton yarn warehouses appeared. one.

"... Now some people even make a name directly, without even a physical store, so they call it XX store or XX line, and they send out the store list by themselves-it can be sold in this way. It reminds me of Hainan Island in the 90s. The real estate bubble. At that time, a piece of land transfer contract made hundreds of thousands of dollars..."

"Let's talk about this later!" Li Shan began to lose his composure. These two people have such a clear grasp of the situation, how could they sit on the sidelines until now?It is inconvenient for him to criticize them, "What should we do now?"

"Well, in short, the situation is getting worse," Chuhe said, "by this time, all the participants actually know that the cotton they trade not only has nothing to do with cotton, but also has nothing to do with fabrics. It’s a speculative game, playing drums to pass flowers. But everyone feels that they are not the last one.”

"The closure of Qingyun Building means that the bubble has burst."

"It is indeed very possible," Ren Youzi nodded, "Although I don't know whether the owner of Qingyun Tower will open for business tomorrow or what the market for paper cotton will be, but its rupture is indeed imminent."

The first reason is that the spot arrival of three shipments of Indian cotton has directly contributed to the drop in cotton spot prices; the second is that the new local cotton will be on the market in two or three months; the third is that the cotton harvest in the north, especially in Jianghuai cotton-producing areas, is expected to be poor.Under the double blow of military disasters and natural disasters, no one knows how to grow cotton.

"It is reasonable to say that the expected large reduction in the output of cotton-producing areas in the north will further stimulate the rise of the futures market. But everyone knows that most of the cotton that can be delivered by the indigenous cloth shops in the Guangzhou market comes from the Jianghuai cotton-producing areas. If the local production decreases, It also means that the calico shop can’t deliver the goods at all—this is the last straw that broke the camel’s back.” Ren Youzi said, “Although the speculators know that what they trade is just a piece of paper, But after the illusory guarantee of 'future cotton' also completely collapsed, market confidence was tantamount to a complete collapse."

Chu He continued: "The boss of Qingyun Building has made a lot of money in speculation. The sudden closure of the door may be due to the realization that the game is about to end. But the specifics of this will depend on Comrade Wumu's investigation. result."

"so……"

"Yes, it's a little unnecessary for you to ask Mu Min to send you the police. Guangzhou Zhengbao has been paying attention to Qingyun Tower for a long time. He can't escape."

"That's good. What I'm most worried about is causing turmoil in the financial order." Li Shan breathed a sigh of relief, "However, whether it's the police or political security, after all, they can't control the financial order. You think this crisis should How to fix it?"

(End of this chapter)