Lin Gao Qiming

Chapter 2554 follow-up questions

"My personal suggestion, for this paper cotton incident, the best way to deal with it is to pretend not to see it." Chuhe said.

"?" Now Li Shan and Zou Biao's eyes widened in surprise, such a big speculative event, financial turmoil, actually say "pretend not to see"? !

"This..." Li Shan said in surprise, "It's such a big deal."

"I'm not alarmist, in fact, this is also the common view of our financial circle." Chuhe said, Ren Youzi also nodded slightly.

"Cotton is a commodity for people's livelihood. This kind of behavior can be regarded as hoarding and disrupting the market. It can be regarded as an economic crime..."

"There is no problem with economic crimes, but hoarding is not really a problem." Chu He said, "And the risk is relatively less than you think."

Paper cotton is not hoarded, which is different from the "two whites and one black" campaign in Shanghai in the early days of liberation.There is no problem with the spot circulation of cotton on the market, but the price is expensive and cotton is scarce, but there is no stockpiling. The main problem of paper cotton is disorderly hype.

"Secondly, the most important thing about the high risk of futures is not selling the delivery certificate, but the delivery certificate is a margin transaction, that is, it can pull extremely high leverage in the trading center; the current Guangzhou Paper Co., Ltd. does not engage in margin trading. It adopts the full cash trading stack order model, so there is no high-risk leverage trading problem; thirdly, the general contemporary futures operation actually allows risk hedging, you can’t just buy high, you have to allow short buying .You have to have both longs and shorts to hedge..."

Seeing that the two people on the opposite side looked inexplicable, Chuhe gave up further explanation, and directly concluded: "Anyway, you just need to know that this paper cotton will not cause a serious financial crisis. Many people's It is certain that wealth will be washed, but it is only limited to themselves and the people around them. It will not have a great impact on the financial market as a whole. In this regard, it has to be said that the traditional strict borrowing system also limits widened the crisis."

"You mean, it won't cause turmoil this time?"

"There must be turbulence, but it will not be big. It will not affect social stability. You can rest assured about this." Chuhe said, "According to our estimates, the amount involved in this paper cotton speculation will not exceed 15 yuan." Yuan. According to the overall size of the entire cotton textile market, it is not very large."

"15 yuan, which is amazing!" Zou Biao said, "Many people in this city only earn two yuan a month!"

"People who earn two yuan a month have no capital to join this kind of game. Those who can participate are at least those who can take out hundreds of yuan at any time at home-especially in the last month, a stack rarely has a low income. It’s less than 50 yuan.”

Not to mention ordinary citizens and villagers in Guangzhou, 50 yuan is not a small sum of money for middle-level naturalized cadres.The scale of this hype is actually quite impressive.

"Although this is the case, the scale of the hype this time is not small. I think we should have a state reserve system in the city to reduce the risk of such things happening in the future..." Zou Biao said that in the 18th century, cotton cloth was definitely considered a Strategic materials may be second only to food, but not inferior to coal and iron resources.For the abnormal price fluctuations of this strategic substance, the country's establishment of strategic reserves is the most effective means.On the one hand, the country itself has sufficient demand for strategic resources, which can even out the storage, labor, and management costs of establishing the national reserve.Secondly, maintaining stable prices of strategic materials is also an objective requirement for maintaining social stability.

"...The establishment of the National Reserve is very reasonable, whether it is a political account or an economic account. Let's talk about the paper cotton crisis. When the market collapses, the State Reserve will make large-scale acquisitions. Economically, it will not be a loss, because in the long run Cotton will still rise, and the State Reserve will be able to release it to the market at a small premium or at a par price."

Li Shan looked at the expressions of Chuhe and Ren Youzi, both of them listened intently and nodded slightly from time to time, but judging from their subtle expressions, they completely "disapproved" of Zou Biao's statement.

"The state reserve system for important materials is of course very reasonable, but to be honest, it is not necessary now, and it can't solve any problems." Chuhe said, "It may even cause other problems."

"why?!"

"First of all, this paper cotton crisis does not affect the supply. We have already said this: it is just a crude futures, and hoarding is not a thing. Of course, the establishment of a national reserve is an effective means of regulating market order. But the premise is that We must have a supply of goods. If the supply of goods is just enough for production, how can we store it. Therefore, expanding the supply of cotton is more important than storing cotton at the moment. After a stable supply of cotton, the amount of cotton remaining in the market can support the reserve, and then the country will Reserves can be discussed. At present, the shipping capacity in Southeast Asia, India, and Northeast Asia is limited. In the strict sense, there is no professional cotton planting in these places. The cotton planting area and output are unknown, and there is no stable cotton supplier. , so it is difficult for the State Reserve to take shape in the short term. Moreover, once the State Reserve is established, it will be a huge team. Behind the storage, there will inevitably be huge losses, and a complete set of inventory checking system must be established—forgive me To put it bluntly, the current state-owned grain reserve system of the Senate is beyond its capabilities. Not to mention adding another cotton. I am afraid that in cotton and many bulk commodities, we can only follow the market. After all, there was no big market in the 17th century, and there was also a lack of Cash crop plantations and mining at scale.”

Ren Youzi went on to say: "Why do we need state reserves for everything? If factories directly sign long-term or forward contracts with plantations, the fluctuations in the market should have little effect. During the economic upswing, some small businesses will have no effect. , someone will take over the order soon. If you must give everyone a means of speculation and hedging, then you still have to take the road of formal futures contracts. To be honest, in the current situation, even the futures market cannot be said to be very big. Necessity."

Chu He added: "At the current stage, if we want to engage in futures, the main direction should be the forward transaction price agreement for the purpose of physical delivery, instead of going to the futures trading market in one step. Leverage is a thing that is not recognized by the relatives, and it is easy to get involved if it is too big. egg."

Li Shan and Zou Biao were completely confused by their eloquent talk, but they couldn't think of any specific rebuttals.After all, they're not here to argue.

"Okay, you've said so much. So what exactly is the law of non-intervention?"

"The first is to prohibit the trading of paper cotton. Then check the inventory on the current market. There is no store entity or it is not in the calico industry at all. It is purely a false inventory. This is an economic fraud and should be treated as an economic fraud. I bought this The receipt belongs to the victim, and the criminals will recover the stolen goods after they are caught, and the amount will be refunded in proportion. Of course, it is unlikely that all of them will be refunded, and it can only be regarded as a lesson for them.”

Needless to say, regardless of whether the criminal can be caught or not, it is even more illusory to recover the stolen money in full.Li Shan smiled wryly: "The tuition is expensive enough!"

"How can it be a lesson if it is not expensive?" Ren Youzi continued, "It is indeed the inventory issued by the flower cloth shop, no matter what the final market price is. They are the final acceptance subjects. They must accept it when it expires. If it cannot be honored, It is treated as bankruptcy. This is an economic dispute. It is enough to hear and judge according to the corresponding laws. Of course, we will give them a chance, that is, to negotiate with the holder of the warehouse receipt and recover the warehouse receipt at a certain price-this is Let's see how the two sides negotiate."

"It was nothing in the end," Li Shan continued, "It's another tuition fee."

"Of course, speculation is inherently risky." Chu He said, "In fact, paper cotton has neither a compliant issuer nor a deposit system to guarantee delivery. It can be determined as a fraud. It's just that this problem is not A problem with futures is actually a problem with the entire corporate governance system and financial system that lacks relevant laws and regulations.”

He had been thinking about this question for a long time, but now he brought his words out.

"For example, the company registration that is going on now. In fact, the contemporary limited liability company system has been introduced, but there are no relevant corporate governance requirements. There are issues of agency, shareholder rights, bona fide third parties, and equity transactions. All big pit.

"In fact, it has nothing to do with the paper cotton itself. The main reason is that after the financial risks here began to rise, I suddenly felt that it was time to reflect on the current corporatization reform in Guangzhou.

"The current corporatization reform, the so-called limited liability companies and religious corporations, are actually very dangerous reforms in the current time and space.

"There are several fundamental issues that create enormous risks.

"The first one is after the legalization of a large number of commercial subjects, especially the introduction of "limited liability", where is the matching bankruptcy liquidation system? After multiple shareholdings, without perfect commercial registration and data accumulation, How to penetrate the equity and how to find the actual controller. The related risks of money laundering, tax avoidance, and violation of laws and regulations will rise sharply, especially if the bureaucrats have a few layers of white gloves, through insider trading or simply turning left and right, public funds are converted into private interests , it will become very difficult to verify. Is it all relying on the Steamed Bun Bureau to conduct internal investigations?

"The second is that in the time and space when the credit system is not perfect, the loan risk is nothing if there is a mortgage to repay. Then what should we do if the companies guarantee each other and engage in loan fraud.

"The third is that it is impossible to exchange commercial registration data. Basically, you can't find it out of Guangzhou. What about the identity of the commercial contract? How to solve the agency problem? You say that the official seal and the signature are recognized. The dynasty is equal to being able to be copied at will, how to solve it. In ancient times, people were recognized in business, but now after the legalization, how do you recognize the clerk and the account manager?"

(End of this chapter)