2050 superpower

Chapter 2 During the Warring States Period, the BRIC countries were born (1)
§§§Section 21 The [-]st Century, The Sword of the New Earth Order

With the substantial end of the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union, the US immediately opened the door to a hot war.The disintegration of the Soviet Union created a power vacuum in the world. As a result, NATO expanded eastward, the European Union was born, the Japanese Self-Defense Force went abroad, the East Asian Community was established, and the summit of the Latin American and Caribbean Union was brewing to establish a regional organization that did not include the United States and Canada. At the beginning of the 21st century, China joined the WTO and began to have its own voice in international affairs.With the rise of China, people find that in many international affairs, nothing can be accomplished without the presence of China, so they exclaim that the 21st century will be the era of China.

The rise of China has stimulated India's nerves and ignited its dream of becoming a great power.Russia, although it is a thing of the past, is still on the mend of revival.The rise of Brazil's economy made President Lula shout out the strongest voice of "looking at Europe in the 19th century, America in the 20th century, and Brazil in the 21st century".In short, there are different peaks and various states around the world, and there are many princes, and international dialogues come and go.The Summit of the Eight Western Countries, the "G8+5" Summit, the Asia-Europe Summit, and the G20 Summit have become the stage for countries to compete for the right to speak internationally.On these stages, "after you sing, I will come on stage", all parties hide their swords in their bows and smiles, and dance their swords between their lips and teeth.After several rounds, only the two camps of Europe and Asia were left to compete.As the sole hegemon in the world, the United States stands on the sidelines. With its hegemony at the height of its power, it travels among countries, rushes left and right, and catches people's eyes.

The sound of frogs in the world is not only due to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, but also because of the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact.The two worlds that originally came into being in conflict, because of the collapse of one world, caused the other world to be in jeopardy.A unipolar world is a world of chaos. On July 1991, 7, the more than 1-year confrontation between the two camps of NATO and the Warsaw Pact ended with the sudden dissolution of the Warsaw Pact.NATO, as opposed to the Warsaw Pact, did not lose its job due to the disappearance of its opponents, but instead became a tool for the United States to control Europe and the world.Facing the unrivaled hegemony of the United States in the world, the EU can only swallow its anger.Although the United States is extremely powerful and dominates the crowd, no one wants to be with it and avoid it as far as possible.With no leader among the dragons, the world order is in chaos.Due to the absence of the threat of the Soviet Union, the value of the United States to the European Union has plummeted, but facing the hegemony of the United States, the European Union can only swallow its humiliation and continue to serve the United States.Although we still have to serve the United States, the quality of service is declining, and the voice of saying "no" keeps reaching the ears of the United States.Under the world political structure of "one superpower, many powers", how the new order will be rebuilt, everyone waits and sees in doubt, hoping that there will be a surprise.

The disintegration of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact did not bring about new developments in Western countries. On the contrary, like the morning dew, it gradually lost its vitality in the past.As the world's sole hegemon, the United States hesitated to exert its power indiscriminately in the face of a scene full of heroes, so as to avoid the dilemma of being besieged on all sides.In order to keep NATO, the Western political group under its leadership, from falling, the United States fanned the flames everywhere to create a tense atmosphere, and then turned it into a hot war based on the strength of the virtualized opponent.Therefore, since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the local wars that have occurred in the world have all been engraved with the imprint of "Made in America". The United States attacked Panama at night in 1989; the United States invaded Liberia in 1990; the United States intervened in the Gulf War in 1991; the United States intervened in Somalia by force in 1992; the United States invaded Haiti in 1994; In 1998, the U.S. launched anti-terrorist attacks against Afghanistan... Now the U.S. is targeting Iran and North Korea, creating new tensions.Although the United States can act unscrupulously and exert all its coercion on weak and small countries, but it does not dare to attack big countries lightly.Despite its scruples, the United States is still unwilling to let it go.In order to strangle China, the United States continues to create the "China Threat Theory." Japan, as an eternal follower, naturally does its best to fan the flames.Some countries around China, because of territorial disputes with China, are naturally willing to go along with the United States.Some people think that the series of actions taken by the United States is a continuation of the "Cold War" mentality, which is wrong.The behavior of the United States is not out of "Cold War" thinking, but to maintain hegemony.If there is no China, another "China" will appear in the eyes of the United States, using it as a prop to maintain its hegemony.

The world is not afraid of bad things, it is afraid of bad people; gossips are always there.After the end of the Cold War, the United States, the sole hegemon, did not want world peace and stability, but always wanted to show its "heroic qualities" in troubled times. In 1992, an article "The Awakening Dragon: The Real Threat in Asia Comes from China" put forward the "China Threat Theory", and the United States became excited.The major media in the United States echoed their voices and exaggerated it, making people believe that China is the chief culprit for all the turmoil in the world. In 1995, in the Taiwan area of ​​China, "Taiwan independence" elements instigated the public, created public opinion for Taiwan independence, and wanted to hold a referendum. Naturally, the Chinese central government could not let it go, so the Taiwan Strait crisis occurred.The emergence of the Taiwan Strait crisis allowed the United States to find material to maliciously hype China, and organized a major debate on China policy in the United States.During the debate, remarks such as "China poses a threat to the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait" and "Hong Kong's return means that the free and democratic world will be threatened by the authoritarian system" were heard endlessly. In 1998, the so-called "Cox Report", "Li Wenhe Case", and "Political Donation Case" in the United States were exposed, and there were "China poses a major threat to US national security" and "China stole US nuclear secrets". ", "Using Chinese scientists and students to collect intelligence extensively in the United States", "attempting to buy the US government" and other remarks made the "China threat theory" more "reasonable and well-founded".The malicious hype of the United States against China did not stop there, and then there were "China energy threat theory", "Chinese commodity threat theory", "China science and technology threat theory", "Chinese culture threat theory", "China military threat theory" and so on. , China has become a "superpower" in public opinion. 'The reason why the United States is making public opinion about China and confusing the public is to make the world chaotic.Only when the world is in chaos can the United States "justify" exercise its "duty" as the "world policeman".As the world's dominant superpower, the United States only wants to hear its own voice in the world, and the voices of others can only be echoed and cannot be "out of tune".Therefore, in the consciousness of the United States, the voices of other countries can only be an accompaniment to its discourse, and cannot become a melody.

Looking back at the history of the world, the ups and downs of the status of great powers are essentially the rise and fall of comprehensive national strength.Comprehensive national strength is divided into hard power and soft power.Hard power is "sword", while soft power is "skill".If you have a sword but no skill, you will be snatched away with your bare hands; if you have skill but no sword, you will accomplish nothing with your bare hands.Therefore, a "big guy" must have great wisdom.To be precise, hard power refers to the economic foundation of a country; soft power refers to the superstructure of a country.Regardless of whether it is the economic base or the superstructure, as long as it can maintain its vitality, then the potential of the country's comprehensive strength will be great;

Huang Shuofeng, a senior researcher at the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences, in his book "Great Power Contest—International Comparison of the Comprehensive National Power of the World's Major Countries", divides the connotation of comprehensive national power into seven parts: politics, economy, science and technology, national defense, culture and education, diplomacy, and resources. aspect.Throughout the history of the world, the facts of the ups and downs of great powers confirm Huang Shuofeng's conclusion.Take the UK as an example: Politically, the UK innovated its political system in the 19th century, which ensured the government’s ability to regulate all aspects of society; economically, the UK replaced the agricultural economy with an industrial economy, opened a precedent for modern economics, and became a The "world factory" at that time; in terms of technology, the United Kingdom has made its technological level ahead of other countries in the world through innovations in various new production tools, vehicles, steam engines, and production processes; in terms of military affairs, the United Kingdom has established the world's strongest The large naval fleet made its maritime hegemony invincible; in diplomacy, with the support of its strong economic and military strength, Britain led the establishment of the international order at that time and established the world's largest colonial empire.Therefore, with its extremely large-scale comprehensive national strength, the United Kingdom has grown from a small country in Europe to a powerful country that dominates the world.

With the development of history, the comprehensive strength of a country has been paid more and more attention, and an index evaluation system has been established for the comprehensive strength.Based on this evaluation system, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released the Yellow Paper 2006: Global Politics and Security Report.This "Report" measures the level of comprehensive national strength of various countries from the aspects of technological capabilities, human capital, capital capabilities, information capabilities, natural resources, military capabilities, GDP, diplomatic capabilities, and government regulation capabilities.According to the evaluation of this "Report", the top six in comprehensive national strength are the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, France, Germany, and China.

In fact, there have long been international evaluation systems for the comprehensive strength of countries.According to the evaluation results of the past years, we can see the comprehensive strength of each country. Here we only list the top six countries: In 1955, according to the ranking made by American experts, the top six countries in the world were the United States, the Soviet Union , Britain, France, China, and Brazil; in 1965, according to the ranking made by American experts, the top six countries in the world were the Soviet Union, the United States, France, China, the Federal Republic of Germany, and Brazil; in 1973, according to the ranking made by American experts, The top six countries in the world are the Soviet Union, the United States, the Federal Republic of Germany, China, France, and Iran; in 1976, according to the ranking made by Japanese experts, the top six countries in the world are the United States, the Soviet Union, China, the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Saudi Arabia; in 1989, according to internationally recognized rankings, the top six countries in the world were the United States, the Soviet Union, Japan, the Federal Republic of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom; in 1997, the top six countries in terms of overall national strength were the United States, Japan, Germany, and France , UK, China.

After entering the 21st century, the top six countries in terms of comprehensive strength in the world have not changed much. In 2002, the top six countries in comprehensive strength were the United States, Japan, France, the United Kingdom, Germany and Russia; among them, the United States scored 8530 points, which was far ahead of Japan's 4947 points, and China only had 2863 points. In 2006, the top six countries in terms of comprehensive strength were the United States, Japan, France, the United Kingdom, Germany and China; among them, the United States once again had a high score of 8639 points, which was far ahead of Japan's 4986 points.By 2010, according to the "International Situation" Yellow Paper issued by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the top six countries in terms of comprehensive strength were the United States, Japan, Germany, Canada, France, and Russia, and China ranked seventh.

China's comprehensive strength always fluctuates between the second echelon and the third echelon in the world. The reason is that China joined the WTO too late.If China had been born a century earlier on the international stage, with its profound culture and wisdom, it could have become a world superpower long ago.China's real entry into the world began with the removal of the Iron Curtain that blocked China in 1972, and was marked by 2001.After China entered the world, countries felt more and more that the world was gradually transforming into China's world.Now, the world has felt the wisdom of China. In today's financial economy, China has only used a little wisdom, and its ability to gather wealth has surpassed that of the Jews; the foreign exchange it holds in its hands has made countries around the world feel like a dangling sword. all day long.On the other hand, the United States today is like the playboys of the Eight Banners in the Qing Dynasty in China in the past. I am afraid that it is difficult to do anything new except to raise a cage and show off its strength.

Looking at the world situation, there are turbulent winds and clouds, and those who hit the water in the middle must have a strong body, and the elderly can only be swept away by the raging waves.Although the traditional world powers still govern the world, their chairs are old and loose and creaking, and they will suddenly fall apart one day.The new world needs new power, and people are watching the birth of emerging countries.In people's hope, the "BRIC countries" leaped out of the water like a dragon, making the eyes of the world suddenly bright.The United States has not been caught by the eyes. This emerging country in the 18th century, facing the emerging countries in the 21st century-the "BRICs", has anxiety in its eyes.

§§§Session [-] America——From the model of the world to the scorching sun in the afternoon

In 1492, Columbus discovered the New World in North America, and then triggered a worldwide "taobao" craze. "Colorful" people came in droves, and world powers fought fiercely in disputes, all of which were unexpected by Columbus when he discovered the New World.With its strong strength, Britain repelled other powers in the colonial battle, won the final victory, monopolized this new continent, and made it his exclusive colony.After Britain occupied this new continent, a large number of colonists flocked to it, and the invasion of "alien species" caused the local aboriginal residents to be wiped out, replaced by the pandemic of capitalism, and Indian culture was exterminated.Due to the extinction of Indian culture and the sharp reduction in the number of people, the New World has changed its dynasty.The new continent where the dynasty changed is no longer a colony in the traditional sense, but a new society.In this case, the new residents of this new continent no longer endured the oppression of Britain, launched the North American War of Independence, and rebelled against the British imperial rule. On July 1776, 7, this new continent called North America defeated the British Empire, and under the banner of the "American Declaration of Independence", a brand new country inside and outside - the United States was established.

After the founding of the People's Republic of China, different social systems were implemented in the north and south of the United States - the slave system and the capitalist system, and the Civil War broke out in the confrontation between the two systems.In the northern part of the United States where capitalism is practiced, whether it is the poor from Western Europe, the nobles, the landlords, the bourgeoisie, or those who come to escape religious persecution and war disasters, or even beggars, criminals, and black people trafficked from Africa, in short, this Some "rabble" from "all corners of the country" formed the federal army under the "union", fought bloody battles with the southern slave owners' alliance, and finally won the victory, so that the capitalist system was implemented throughout the United States.In the United States, there is only God and no monarch; there is no "original sin" but only "natural human rights"; there is no grudge but integration.America became the land of freedom in the world.

In 1876, France, an old capitalist country with a similar experience to the United States, gave the United States a special gift, a giant Statue of Liberty, to celebrate the 100th anniversary of American independence.The United States erected this statue on an island in New York Harbor to welcome visitors from all over the world with the spirit of freedom it symbolizes.Since then, the Statue of Liberty has held the torch high in her right hand and hugged the "Red Book" of the "American Declaration of Independence" in her left hand, and has persisted until now.The United States has become a model of the free world, and all people who yearn for freedom flock to the United States. On the ship, when they see the Statue of Liberty welcoming them, they all burst into tears.

The United States began the process of industrialization after independence, and it took less than 50 years to industrialize and urbanize this agricultural country.Industrialization has improved the productivity of the United States; urbanization has made the market economy of the United States highly developed.As a culture, the spirit of freedom in the United States attracts talents from all over the world, making it the second center of scientific and technological development in the world except Europe, and has produced many famous scientists.

(End of this chapter)