2050 superpower

Chapter 23: The Rising Brazil (3)
Second, despite Brazil's overall younger population, spending on social security and benefits increased by 7%.Finally, Brazil still lags behind China in education and infrastructure.These problems are not small problems. If they are not resolved properly, Brazil will probably continue to play the role of a "potential power".In addition, the United States has always regarded Latin America as its backyard, so it should be placed within its own sphere of influence and will never allow any other powerful country to get involved.This position of the United States towards Latin America was determined as early as 1823. In 1823, the United States issued the "Monroe Declaration", which aimed at Latin America. The declaration stated: "In the future, no European powers shall regard the countries that have become independent and free in the American continent as the objects of future colonization." The Monroe Doctrine did not produce much at that time Influence, because Britain's influence in Latin America is much greater than that of the United States. After the 19s, with the rise of the United States, the U.S. government brought up the Monroe Doctrine again.Since it is its own sphere of influence, the United States will naturally become the spokesperson and arbitrator of the countries in North and South America.While preventing external forces from exerting influence on Latin American countries, the United States also suppressed challenges to its hegemony from countries within the Americas.Brazil is the country with the largest area, the largest population, and the richest natural resources in Latin America. The United States did not use strong suppression methods, but adopted a policy of appeasement.For a long time, Brazil has been an ally of the United States, and Brazil has always regarded the United States as the basis of its foreign policy.In the past, Brazil followed the United States in World War I and World War II with this positioning.The United States has been Brazil's largest trader and investor since it replaced Britain in Latin America in the 40th century.If Brazil wants to really become a real powerhouse, it is very important to overcome the barrier of the United States.

Brazil may have realized that the United States will surely become an obstacle to realizing its dream of a great power. Although the friendship with the United States is still there, it has begun to say "no" to the United States.Since Labor Party leader Lula came to power, Brazil has confronted the United States almost everywhere.One of the most surprising to the world is the 2003 Cancun Conference.At this meeting, Brazil united with other developing countries to launch an attack on the United States and Europe, asking them to give up agricultural subsidies.Since then, Brazil has sued the United States to the WTO under the pretext that the United States has given US$40 billion in subsidies to cotton farmers to protect its cotton industry, and won the case.Since "9", the United States has implemented measures to record fingerprints and take photos of foreign passengers entering the United States.Brazil was very dissatisfied with this measure of the United States. It countered the United States and took the same measures against American citizens entering Brazil, becoming the only country in the world that implemented reciprocal measures against the United States.Friends from the past, treating themselves like this now, can't help but make the United States feel stuck in the throat and extremely embarrassed.Now Brazil has become a "dissident" in the backyard of the United States from a country that used to be obedient to U.S. policies.In addition to Brazilian President Lula, Argentina's Kirchner, Chile's Lagos, and Uruguay's Vazquez also began to rebel against the United States, making Latin American countries no longer follow the lead of the United States under the leadership of these left-wing forces.No wonder some Western media commented that an "anti-American axis" is emerging in Latin America, with Cuba, Venezuela, Brazil and Argentina at the core.

Brazil's "eye-catching appearance" in the world has made it more and more the center of international political activities, and it has begun to hold international influence commensurate with its status as a major country.Although Brazil is still some time away from its real rise, the pace of its rise has been heard by the world.The rise of Brazil is just a sub-shot of the rise of a series of emerging countries. This rise will change the map of international political power, which is conducive to the formation of a multi-polar world, the balance of international political power and world peace and stability. long-term interests and fundamental interests.

§§§ Section [-] Global fifth goal
On November 2009, 11, Brazilian President Lula said in an exclusive interview with the British "Financial Times" that Brazil will become the fifth largest economy in the world by 5.Goldman Sachs is more conservative. It believes that by 2020, Brazil's GDP will reach 2050 trillion to 5 trillion US dollars, becoming the fifth largest economic power in the world.

Does Brazil really have the strength to compete for the fifth largest economy in the world?May be.According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund, Brazil's nominal GDP in 2010 will continue to rank eighth in the world at US$1 trillion.This is indeed the case. Brazil's GDP in 9 reached US$2010 billion, ranking eighth in the world's GDP ranking.However, when we look back at Brazil's history, No.15719 is definitely not Brazil's best result. It once ranked seventh in 8.The reason why the world is optimistic about Brazil is to make trend predictions from a static perspective.This static condition is that in the next 2005 years, Brazil's economy will develop at an annual growth rate of 30% to 3%. At the same time, it also implies that other countries will maintain low-speed development.This static condition is difficult to guarantee.

Brazil's economy had experienced high-speed growth as early as the 20s. Since then, Brazil has ignited a dream and is determined to surpass the United States one day.But the good times didn't last long. In the 70s, global inflation shattered Brazil's dreams; then, in the late 20s, a financial crisis hit Brazil to the bottom.

On January 1999, 1, Brazil, as the largest economic power in Latin America, burst into financial crisis, and its government announced the devaluation of its currency, the real.Brazil's move scared investors away from the Latin American market, causing turbulence in the stock markets of Latin American countries and other parts of the world, and spreading the currency crisis into a full-scale financial crisis.

Any financial crisis will not happen without a reason. On January 1996, 1, a serious incident occurred between the state and the federal government in Brazil: the newly installed governor of Minas Gerais, Itabal Franco, announced that the state owed $6 billion to the federal government. The 154-day delay in the repayment of the debt of the United States caused a chain reaction immediately, and 90 other states also made the same request.The incident involved not only a debt issue but also a political issue, which caused a credit crisis in Brazil and made the already shaken foreign investors even more shaken.These foreign investors were caught off guard and began to sell stocks and securities and withdraw their capital in large quantities.Due to the withdrawal of foreign capital, the outflow of US dollars from Brazil's reserves continued to accelerate, and the real depreciated by nearly 11%. On January 10, the Central Bank of Brazil was forced to abandon the peg and let the real float freely.This release caused the real to depreciate by 1%.Since then, the legendary "butterfly effect" has appeared. The panic caused by the sharp depreciation of the Brazilian real soon spread to the stock trading markets outside Latin America.According to reports, major stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region, such as Hong Kong, Singapore and Australia, fell by 15%, 23% and O. 4%, London, New York, Paris, Zurich, Frankfurt, Spain and other world-renowned stock markets also fell across the board. Among them, the Spanish stock market fell by 09%, setting a historical record for the decline of the broader market.

The root cause of this financial crisis is very strange to say, using a Chinese saying: "Success is Xiao He, and failure is Xiao He." In 1994, in order to curb hyperinflation that lasted for several years, Brazil launched a "crawling peg The "real plan" with the core of "living in the dollar".As soon as this plan came out, it paid off. Inflation dropped from a high of 1994% in 2100 to around 1998% in 4.While inflation has been contained, the deficit in the public sector has not been effectively addressed. In 1998, the balance of government debt reached 3500 billion US dollars, and the balance of government debt and national debt accounted for 6% and 8% of 160DP respectively.In such a bad situation, "a leaky house coincides with continuous rain, and a broken ship meets headwinds." In August 1998, the financial crisis broke out in Russia again, which made the international market lose confidence in developing countries. The cost of borrowing foreign debt by the Brazilian government It was increased, and a large amount of funds flowed out. From August to October, Brazil lost nearly 8 billion US dollars of foreign exchange reserves.In short, a string of bad luck has lined up Brazil's ass in a double whammy.

Fortune and misfortune depend on each other. When Brazil's misfortune reaches its extreme, whether it will be prosperous or not.In nature, after wildfire, there must be a piece of green prosperity.This law of nature also luckily fell on the head of the Brazilians.First of all, after several months of rectification of the financial system by the Brazilian government, the financial order and situation have improved, and the real exchange rate against the US dollar has stabilized and has risen steadily.After several interest rate cuts, the national debt interest burden has been eased.After implementing a floating exchange rate, Brazil no longer consumes a large amount of foreign exchange reserves to guarantee the exchange rate of the real.At the same time, the reduction of loan interest has promoted the development of Brazilian enterprises.

Through the efforts of the Brazilian government, foreign investors have regained their confidence in Brazil and returned to the Brazilian market again.The US$10 billion investment plan of the French Renault Automobile Company in Brazil continued, and the US Coca-Cola Company announced a 1999% increase in investment in 10.As a result, Brazil has retained its position as the largest emerging market country in Latin America, and remains attractive to foreign capital.

此后，由于雷亚尔的贬值，刺激了巴西的出口。2000年2月，巴西对外贸易在过去8个月中第一次出现2．19亿美元的顺差。巴西也因此将当年的出口目标定为1000亿美元。其中汽车出口将增加10％，达到55亿美元。

As the Brazilian economy stabilizes and investment increases, employment opportunities in some industries continue to increase.

According to the survey of 47 different industrial sectors by the relevant government departments, 15 sectors have increased jobs, and the employment situation of 3 sectors is relatively stable, reversing the general decline in employment opportunities.

The depreciation of the real also ushered in a good harvest for Brazil's tourism industry.According to relevant media reports, tourist charter flights arriving in Brazil tripled year-on-year, with 664 charter flights from Argentina to Brazil alone.Foreign tourists to Bahia increased by 47% year-on-year, and those to Santa Catalina increased by 72% year-on-year.The substantial increase in tourists has made full use of various tourist facilities in some tourist cities in Brazil that have not been fully utilized in the past, and the economic benefits have been significantly improved. The consumption of tourists has promoted the growth of the local economy.

We can see from the above situation that Brazil's ability to deal with risks has been greatly improved. The improvement of this ability is of great significance to the balanced and stable development of Brazil's economy in the future.

If Brazil wants to pursue the fifth largest economy in the world, its hard power is very important.Many of Brazil's hard power rank among the top in the world.First of all, with a land area of ​​85 million square kilometers, Brazil is the fifth largest territorial country in the world.With a population of 1 million, Brazil is the fifth most populous country in the world.Brazil's agriculture and livestock industry ranks first not only in South America, but also in the world.Among them, coffee production and export volume rank first in the world ranking list, sugarcane, cocoa, soybean production, etc. are second to none in the world, the number of cattle herds ranks second in the world, and the number of pigs and poultry herds ranks third in the world bit.

In terms of industry, Brazil has the ninth largest automobile manufacturer in the world and the fourth largest aircraft manufacturing company in the world. Even European developed countries such as the United Kingdom and Germany use aircraft made in Brazil as training aircraft.Brazil is the first developing country in the world to jointly launch a satellite with China.

In terms of minerals, Brazil's Vale Corporation is the world's largest iron ore producer and exporter. Vale's iron ore production accounts for 80% of Brazil's total production. The iron ore reserves of Ma Iron Mine and Carajas Iron Mine are about 40 billion tons, and the main minerals can be mined for nearly 400 years.In addition to ferrous metal deposits, Brazil is also rich in rare and non-ferrous metals such as gold, manganese, and aluminum.Although Brazil's oil resources are not dominant, its oil production continues to grow as Brazil's investment in the oil industry increases. In contrast, the dominance of Venezuela and Mexico in Latin America is rapidly declining.When world oil demand grows again, Brazil can use this advantage to get additional economic benefits from rising oil prices.

(End of this chapter)