2050 superpower

Chapter 24: The Rising Brazil (4)
From the end of the 20th century to the beginning of the 2st century, several new oil fields were discovered in Brazil and put into production one after another.

As a result, Brazil's oil production increased to 205 million barrels per day, an increase of 46%. The sharp drop in world oil prices in 2008 caused some large Latin American oil companies, such as ConocoPhillips and Statoil, to start shrinking their capital.Contrary to the operations of these companies, Brazil's state-owned oil giant announced a 5% increase in the size of its 55-year investment plan to $1744 billion, placing it among the world's top five oil producers.In this regard, Goldman Sachs analysts said that Petrobras has moved against the market trend, making it most likely to become one of the world's major oil producers and benefit from the next round of oil price rise cycle.

Faced with Brazil's strong soft and hard power, President Lula encouraged Brazil to say: "The 19th century belongs to Europe, the 20th century belongs to the United States, and the 21st century belongs to Brazil." At the same time, Lula clearly declared that Brazil should lead the entire South American continent.Lula's economic advisory group believes that in the next few decades, Brazil will join hands with China, Russia and India to become the most dynamic economic regional alliance in the global economy.From Lula's rhetoric, we can know that Brazil should be the protagonist rather than the supporting role. After the failure of the Cancun Conference in September 2003, Brazil, together with China, India and other countries, put pressure on developed countries to further cut agricultural subsidies, and succeeded in the multilateral trade negotiations in August 9.This success is regarded by countries around the world as a major victory for developing countries.

In any case, Brazil has embarked on the road to becoming the fifth largest economy in the world. As for whether it will achieve this goal in 2020 or 2050, it depends on whether it can go smoothly, and it depends on where the world's ever-changing wind vane points.

§§§Section [-] Brazil - the future leader of Latin America
The current Brazilian President Lula is a very controversial figure.This controversy is about whether Lula is on the left or on the right.People call Lula the "Castro" of Brazil, and Lula also admitted that Castro is the person he respects and admires the most.The same is true.The Brazilian president, who was elected and re-elected in 2002, refused to recognize foreign debts and severely condemned "barbaric capitalism". From this point of view, they are all manifestations of traditional leftist ideas in Latin America such as Castro.As a result, people labeled Lula a "leftist".But another voice disagreed.This voice believes that Lula has inherited almost all liberal economic policies, such as privatization and tight fiscal policies, so Lula does not seem to be a leftist.

In relations with the United States, Lula is a fighter.Lula condemned the unilateralism of the United States in launching a military attack on Iraq, and together with the Venezuelan "anti-American fighter" Chavez, he set off a "left-wing" movement in Latin America.This movement allowed Bolivia, Nicaragua, Chile, and Argentina's political parties representing left-wing forces to successively take control of state power. In 2001, as the leader of the Brazilian Labor Party, Lula successfully launched the "World Social Forum".Lula said passionately at the World Social Forum: "Another world is possible!" Impact.Lula's line is very clear, which is to get Brazil out of its dependence on big powers.

If you want to get rid of your attachment to a big country, you can't do it alone.Therefore, Lula determined to establish a "united Latin America."Heroes see the same thing, and former Brazilian President Cardoso also had this idea.During his exile in France in the 20s, Cardoso realized that "it is much easier to communicate with an Argentine or Uruguayan than with a Frenchman".While communication is easy, power struggles make it extremely difficult.Before the 60s, Brazil and Argentina competed for leadership of the Latin American continent, leading to discord between the two countries.Regarding the relationship between Brazil and Argentina, German Chancellor Kohl once said to Cardoso: "In Brazil, your responsibility is to do the same thing as Argentina. You must leave your past behind. Your history The responsibility is to create a great regional union in Latin America."

However, it is not easy to establish a federation in Latin America. The key issue is the existence of American power.As long as the US power exists in Latin America, the so-called "Latin American integration" is just "Latin American integration under the Stars and Stripes."In this regard, Galeano put it more clearly: "As long as the model of underdevelopment and dependence is not broken in advance, Latin America can only integrate the respective status of servants."

The existence of the United States is an unavoidable fact.For the United States, which likes to strike first, it will not wait for the establishment of the Latin American Union. In 1994, under the impetus of the United States, at the first Summit of the Americas, the participating countries agreed to establish the Free Trade Area of ​​the Americas, and set December 2005, 12 as the deadline for the establishment of the trade area.If this goal can be achieved, Latin America's position in the world economy will be improved on the face of it.However, with the presence of the United States, countries are always wary.Therefore, until now this free trade zone has not yet been established.The United States advocates the establishment of the Free Trade Area of ​​the Americas, mainly to prevent powers outside the region from getting involved in its backyard.It is precisely based on this consideration that the United States wants to take advantage of regional economic integration to consolidate its strategic base in the Western Hemisphere and resist the influence and challenges of the European Union and Japan on a global scale.Other countries in America are worried that the United States will use this to swallow the entire America.It was originally a win-win situation, but in their respective suspicions, they have been in a state of suspension.

The economy of the Latin American region has always been an important part of the world economy in the past.In the middle of the 20th century, the per capita income of Latin America was higher than that of any developing region in the world, and the ratio of its per capita income to that of developed countries was about 1:2.But in the second half of the 20th century, the Latin American economy began to decline, and its development speed lagged behind that of East Asia.Although Latin America's economy is in recession, its economic aggregate is still ahead of other developing regions.Therefore, whoever can become the leader of the Latin American region can gain more voice in the world.

Since the 20s, Latin America has experienced four crises that shook the world, namely the regional debt crisis in the early 80s, the Mexican financial crisis in 80, the Brazilian financial crisis in 1994 and the Argentine crisis in 1999.These crises have dealt heavy blows to relevant countries and even the entire Latin American region, and greatly affected people's lives.The root causes of these four crises are all related to excessive reliance on foreign capital.Afterwards, the Asian financial crisis that occurred in the 2001s caused the deterioration of the world economic situation. This series of crises provided more favorable opportunities and development space for the leftists in Latin America, and the leftist movement showed a boom in full swing.If the Latin American left wants to achieve further development, it still has to face many challenges and is also restricted by various international and domestic factors.In recent years, the United States has been strengthening its military and political control over Latin American countries in the name of anti-terrorism and anti-drugs.For example, the United States has strengthened its embargo against Cuba and used various means to interfere in Venezuela's internal affairs to curb the development of left-wing social movements in Latin America and prevent left-wing forces from taking power.

Facing the changing situation and crisis in Latin America, leftist leaders have not found economic theories and models that can replace the current development model, and can only make moderate adjustments to neoliberal policies.It is precisely for this reason that since Lula took office as President of Brazil, due to the lack of a clear national development strategy, he can only continue the reform route of neoliberalism in the past.However, how to revise, improve and continue to implement the economic and social reforms that have been carried out for more than 10 years, and get out of the repeated vicious circle of "development-crisis", I am afraid that Brazil is still in the "blind man feeling the elephant", which is the helplessness of the left.

In leftist organizations in Latin America, a variety of ideological trends coexist, including Marxism-Leninism and populism, as well as anarchism, Trotskyism, and extreme leftism. It is difficult to establish a unified ideology.Although there are many difficulties, there are challenges and opportunities.Participation and governance by leftists has become a broad political choice for the Latin American people.After the setback and low tide period from the late 20s to the mid-80s, the Latin American left began to mature through introspection, and Latin American social movements with the themes of anti-poverty, anti-inequality and globalization continued to develop.

In this tumultuous political situation, Brazil is becoming the giant of South America, playing a growing leadership role.According to the US "Newsweek" report, Brazilian President Lula's popularity is heating up, especially in the world's political and economic fields.At the London "G[-]" summit, Lula shared the podium with British Prime Minister Brown and French President Sarkozy.In the eyes of the bankers, Lula received great attention and became the object of competition.Some international analysts say that Lula is promoting Brazil's world influence and establishing the image of a "superpower" in South America.Brazil does not advocate force, but only the economy, and the superpower it wants to pursue is not an American-style superpower.Brazil wants to use its own economic advantages to become a giant that is completely different from other existing powers.

There is a hint of bitterness in Brazil's ambitions.In the past, Brazil, as a regional power, has always wanted to play a greater role in international affairs, but many attempts have ended in failure.Even during World War II, Brazil, as the only Latin American country sending troops to Europe, did not have its own seat around the "round table" of postwar negotiations until the 20s.After Brazilian President Cardoso successfully curbed inflation, Brazil's national status began to improve.Under Lula's term as president, Brazil began to seek opportunities to enter the UN Security Council and received support from some major powers. At the same time, Brazil launched the South American Free Trade Movement, formed alliances with developing countries, and continued to expand its influence in the world.After the "Dongfeng" was established, Lula began a series of actions: In 90, with the support of the World Trade Organization, Brazil forced the United States to reduce subsidies to domestic cotton farmers, and at the same time ended the trade protection policy of the European sugar industry; Since 2004, Lula has invited 2007 countries to visit Brazil every five months, uniting with other developing countries to force rich countries to remove trade barriers; ", saying that "no one can claim that democracy does not exist in Venezuela."These actions by Brazil have greatly shaken the influence of the United States in South America, while at the same time continuously improving its position in Latin America.

Brazil's rise is not due to force, but its huge reserves of natural resources, including oil, natural gas, metals, and superior agriculture. Brazil has become a major supplier of soybeans and beef to neighboring countries and Asian markets."Transforming natural resources into value-added commodities has greatly increased Brazil's international weight," said David Rosoff, a former U.S. Department of Commerce official.

Since the independence of the United States, the "Monroe Doctrine" has become the ideological basis for the division of power between the United States, Europe and Japan.Under the "authorization" of the "Monroe Doctrine", the United States interferes in the internal affairs of Latin American countries and regards Latin American countries as its own dependent countries, so people call Latin America the "backyard" of the United States.However, now this "backyard" is "on fire", and all the "dependent countries" are ready to break away from the shackles of the United States, which makes the United States restless.Not only Brazil, but the entire Latin American region is getting rid of the control of the United States and is developing towards independence. It has to wave goodbye to the history of dependence on foreign forces and isolation among Latin American countries since the Spanish conquest.The President of Venezuela took over the banner of anti-Americanism from Castro and insulted Bush as much as possible in his speech at the United Nations, but the United States could not help him.

Brazil is no longer a "potential power". In Latin America, it has played the role that a regional power should play, making Latin America no longer the exclusive domain of the United States.At the same time, Brazil has led and promoted the integration process of Latin America, which has improved the international status of Latin America.Although Brazil is not yet the leader of Latin America in a complete sense, once he ascends to this throne, he will gain a more favorable position and strength than the other three countries of the "BRIC".

(End of this chapter)