2050 superpower

Chapter 25: The Gradually Aging Europe (1)
§§§The first section aging heroes

Now for the old European powers, it is generally called Old Europe.Europe is always so brilliant in people's hearts.Looking at their history, it feels right.It can be said that before modern times, the history of mankind was the history of Europe, and it was Europe that led the progress of the world.

We go back to more than 2000 years ago. After Greece was physically disbanded, the ancient Roman Empire swept across Europe with new civilization and barbarism, and became the ruler of half of Europe.The vicissitudes of the world will not stop. Since the 3rd century AD, the Roman Empire has gradually weakened, and new forces have poured in from the Germans in Northern Europe and the Slavs in Eastern Europe. In 476 AD, this irresistible newborn Power overwhelmed the Roman Empire, and the remaining embers of the empire were completely extinguished by the Turks in 1453.

In the Middle Ages, the European kingdoms that lost their centralized rule competed for independence, and there were constant wars in the "horse staking".Today's Britain, France, Germany, Italy and many other countries gradually took shape in that era of frequent wars.As a branch of Christianity, Catholicism, has mastered the process of European civilization, and all knowledge is trapped in the monastery. The religion that originally pursued the ideal country has become a tool for oppressing progress. The Crusades under its command, during the Eastern Expedition It brought great disaster to the people of Europe.For this reason, Enlightenment scholars called this period the "Dark Ages."

In the 15th century, perhaps the land of Europe could no longer support the robust bodies of the great powers, so the great powers, especially Spain, Portugal, and the United Kingdom, began to set foot on Africa, America, and Asia, frantically plundering resources.During the same period, Europe began a cultural leap, and the Renaissance broke out.Under this wave, many countries broke away from Catholicism and converted to Protestantism.In this kind of confrontation between the old and the new, countries often cause confrontations and even religious wars because of different sects.

At the end of the 18th century, Britain began the industrial revolution of great historical significance, which then swept across the European continent and led to the rise of many nation-states.While the Industrial Revolution brought about a great increase in productivity, it also made the war in Europe more intense.Europe is the birthplace of capitalist imperialism. The emergence and development of science and technology have comprehensively improved their military power and made them more capable of plundering resources around the world.

By the early 20th century, imperialism was at its height, leading to two world wars that transcended continental boundaries.The two world wars not only decimated Europe, but also created a 60-year-long Cold War confrontation between two hostile forces in the world after World War II.During the confrontation in the Cold War, Europe dragged its sick body and leaned into the arms of the powerful United States, becoming a protected country. In 1990, the Soviet Union disintegrated, and one of the two hostile camps disappeared immediately, and the Cold War was declared over.At this time, the European countries also recovered their robust physique during the recuperation, and gradually left the arms of the United States, while other countries were in a state of leaderless, and the world political structure fell into chaos.

The United States refused to agree to Europe's divorce. Therefore, although NATO lost its meaning of existence because it had no opponents, the United States still wanted NATO to survive in the world in isolation.The goals of the United States are nothing more than three: first, NATO is the most economical military force for the United States to guarantee its hegemony; second, the existence of NATO can maintain the relationship between the United States and the European Union; , to control the European Union.

This intention of the United States can be described as Sima Zhao's heart, and everyone knows it.The decision to leave old Europe has been made, and leaving the United States has become a foregone conclusion.Although there is still a smile on the surface between the United States and Europe, the road under the feet is already divergent, and the direction is different.The European Union, which was restarted from the old Europe, absorbed many new European countries, and its momentum continued to grow.The establishment of the Eurozone, the establishment of the European Rapid Response Force, and its strong self-reliance have made the United States, which is watching through the window, sigh.

Old Europe is already old, and it is doubtful whether it can still eat.Looking at the current state of old Europe, one can really feel the taste of "strong outside but capable inside".With the continuous expansion of the European Union, the old Europe is gradually feeling powerless. Under the new world rules, it can no longer play modern games. The two world-class financial turmoil at the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century made old Europe unstable and took several steps back.The joining of new European countries, while bringing momentum, also brought troubles.The debt crisis in Greece made old Europe so distressed that bloodstains were scratched out of its already bald forehead; the subsequent warnings of the debt crisis in Spain and Portugal made the old Europe, the aging heart, almost stop beating.

While the United States is dancing solo without applause, and the European Union is busy solving its internal affairs, emerging countries have sprung up from all over the world like mushrooms, rising rapidly with audible joints accompanied by timely rain.In contrast, the two old mottled bamboos in the United States and Europe have dried up and cracked.

Facing the rise of emerging countries, the United States and Europe have two concerns.The first concern is that, with the rise of China and India, the center of the world economy will shift to East Asia.China, in particular, has been hyped up by countries all over the world. It seems that China will become the world's largest economy 20 years later and there is no room for change.In this situation, all countries in the world, especially the incumbent powers, need to redefine their relationship with Asia.Among the changes in the pattern, the biggest losses must be European countries, especially the United Kingdom, Germany, France and Italy.The second worry is that if China becomes the economic leader, the rules of the game will change and the West will lose control over international affairs.Although the European Union has been established and has a "constitution" that is not fully in force, it has its own concerns and cannot form a closer political system. Whether it can win the new game will be a big question mark.In the face of the rise of China and the rebirth of Russia, the old European Union has been unable to contain it. Although the United States, the world hegemon, has a strong military power, it is not powerful in the economic field.The militarism and mass mobilization are not only against the trend of the world, but even the United States, which has a strong economy, cannot afford to fight two wars at the same time, not to mention the economically sluggish European Union, let alone the difficulties faced by China, India, and the United States. Russia, Brazil.On the contrary, if the use of force makes China, Russia, and India anxious, nuclear weapons should only be used for deterrence, and the United States and the European Union will not do something that is not worth the candle.Leaving aside military issues, as far as resources in the EU region are concerned, the EU is discouraged from emerging countries.European energy, especially natural gas, is in the hands of the Russians. One day Russia will be unhappy. Once the natural gas is cut off, Europe will really be "out of gas".

Since the "Renaissance", European culture has been leading the world, while the traditional culture of the East may be too old, so old that only "tradition" remains.During the Cold War, the United States and other Western countries imposed an Iron Curtain-like blockade on China. Even though China has undergone earth-shaking changes, the world is still looking for the "braids" behind the Chinese people's heads with the eyes of the Qing Dynasty.After the Iron Curtain was removed, the Western world discovered that China had smashed all feudal culture and became the newest country in the world.If China wants to develop its economy, it will naturally learn from established capitalist countries.However, in the process of learning, China did not learn to walk in Handan, nor did it rest on its laurels, but really embarked on the road of "controlling barbarians with barbarians".

This is the case in China, as well as in other emerging countries.India is learning, Russia is learning, Brazil is learning.For China, India and Russia, Western social and economic science is a brand new thing, which integrates into their own culture in learning and produces new life in hybridization.This life is eugenic because of the distant blood relationship.The vitality of this priority has spurred China's rapid economic growth.On the contrary, the culture of the European Union is old and has no vitality compared with emerging countries.The ancient Chinese sage Confucius said: "A student does not have to be inferior to a teacher, and a teacher does not have to be better than a student." Now the disciples of "studying in the West" in China have surpassed the "teacher", and other emerging countries, as "disciples", are also catching up." teacher".Sun Tzu, an ancient Chinese military strategist, said: "He who knows himself and the enemy can win a hundred battles." Now, European countries have taught many "disciples", but "disciples" are unfamiliar to the teachers. In the "teacher-student" duel, the European Union The wind has fallen, and "master starving to death" is nothing new.

The European Union is old, a toothless pack, nothing but gums.If you bite with your gums, it won't hurt, it will just make you feel numb.Therefore, if the European Union wants to gain new life, it should return to the "students" as teachers.In any case, China respects the old and loves the young, and will not disregard the lives of others in order to become the king and hegemony like barbaric imperialism.

§§§Section [-] A Continent Without Vitality
In the previous section, we talked about the fusion of Western modern culture and culture of emerging countries, 'to produce more dynamic life forms.In this regard, British political philosopher John Gray said: "The argument that no developing country can escape the Western model makes it difficult for us to recognize the current situation of world restructuring. As China becomes stronger, she will be more sure that its ancient civilization will continue. She will look for wisdom in history to create a new modern model." Westerners are always verbose, but what John Gray said is an old Chinese idiom - "bring forth the new through the old".

When U.S. President Nixon visited China in 1972, he said to Mao Zedong: "The chairman's writings moved the whole country and changed the world." Mao Zedong said: "It didn't change the world, but only changed a few places near Beijing." When Nixon left China , saying he changed the world this week.After the words reached Mao Zedong, Mao Zedong said: "I think the world has changed him." At that time, Nixon's words may have been just flattery, but in the 21st century, China does not have to be humble about this—China is indeed change the world.

Martin Jacques, an expert on China studies in the UK, said: "Globalization is far from a one-way process. It is actually quite complicated: the United States may be the most influential 'player' in the global arena, capable of controlling several rounds of global trade. Negotiations exert great pressure, but the ultimate winner is East Asia, and the biggest beneficiary is China."

It is not only China that is changing the world now, but also many emerging countries.However, those old world powers have done nothing to change the world. They still continue the thinking of the past, immersed in the glory of the "Renaissance", and become the main body of disharmony in the world today.Compared with the United States, the EU is still somewhat restrained.However, this kind of restraint also robs it of its vitality.

Many people in the world believe that after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the US's global dominance has further strengthened, and this view has become the mainstream, and everyone agrees.In fact, this judgment is wrong.A strong player without an opponent can only get weaker and weaker, not stronger.This logic has been confirmed in the real world.First of all, more and more countries are saying "no" to the United States; second, in order to maintain its status as the world's hegemon, the United States is eager to find an ideal opponent in the world and rebuild a bipolar world.

Therefore, in reality, the reactions of various countries and the current behavior of the United States all show that the United States is in decline.

The decline of Europe was an era earlier than that of the United States. After the end of the "World War I", the status of Europe began to decline. After the end of the "World War II", the status of Europe declined rapidly, and it became a de facto subsidiary of the United States.It is undeniable that Europe is the birthplace of the modern world. As they invaded and plundered Asia and the Americas, their ideas, systems, values, religions, languages, ideologies, and customs spread.In the 18th century, Europe and modernity were "synonymous", and various backward countries, especially the backward big countries, began the "human" version of "Western Paradise" to learn from scriptures.It can be said that until the middle of the 20th century, Europe was still the center of world politics, economy and culture.Speaking of it makes people cry, except for the "antiques" that people are familiar with, there are few new things in Europe now.

The rise of Asia requires a fundamental repositioning of the world's continents, especially Europe.The United States has long shifted its focus from the transatlantic region to the Asia-Pacific region, while Europe is still falteringly taking tentative steps.Thus, while Asia's economic importance to Europe has grown rapidly, Europe's influence on Asia has declined.Europe has maintained the arrogance of the nobles in the past in hesitation, but it does not know that the influence of all European nation-states is just a small playmate compared with the big Asian countries.

If Europe wants to reproduce its vitality in the world, it must speak with China and Asia with one voice and cannot be swayed by the United States. Don't forget that the United States will always be a shackle around Europe's neck.

After the European debt crisis eased in September 2010, Spanish Prime Minister Zapatero breathed a sigh of relief and said: "A few months ago, especially in May and June, our economic situation did encounter a conflagration. Greater than fire; and now, I may say, the fire is out." Has it really gone out?I hope so.Let's first take a look at how the fire was ignited and how it was extinguished.

When the financial crisis just passed, the credit crisis of European countries followed. In October 2008, the sovereign debt problem of Iceland, a small Nordic country, began to emerge. Afterwards, similar problems also appeared in Central and Eastern European countries.Because of the small size of these countries' economies, the EU can easily cope.Unexpectedly, "the mouse dragged the shovel, with the big head behind". In December 10, the world's three major rating companies, Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch respectively downgraded Greece's sovereign debt rating.Until then, Europeans thought that Greece was just an exception, and did not seriously conduct comprehensive medical examinations for EU members.Since then, the debt crisis has spread like a cancer cell, and the credit ratings of Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain, the five EU members, have also been downgraded.Due to the economic downturn and high debt, deficits and debts are like two mountains weighing on these countries.Misfortunes never come singly. With the exposure of the debt crisis, the euro also began to fall sharply, and the international community's confidence in the euro was greatly reduced.

Among countries in debt crisis, Greece is the most affected.Greece's economy has been doing well in the past, growing at an average annual rate of 2003% between 2007 and 4.It is inconceivable that a country like this would have a debt crisis.Through the analysis of the composition of Greece's economic development, we found that this high growth mainly comes from the twin deficits of fiscal and current accounts, and also because it is easier for Greece to obtain cheap loans after joining the euro zone.Through twin deficits and cheap loans, Greece's infrastructure construction and credit consumption have been stimulated.However, Greece is not the United States, and it can develop itself by borrowing.Without strong economic support, Greece can only drink poison to quench its thirst, and has to rely on a large amount of investment and consumption to drive the economy, causing the deficit to continue to accumulate.

(End of this chapter)