2050 superpower

Chapter 37 Who Will Rule the World (4)
The "Golden Four Countries" all have a past that cannot be looked back.Needless to say, China's modern history is a history of humiliation for China. It has been oppressed by world powers and its national sovereignty has been incomplete.China at that time was the common "cake" of the world powers, which could be divided and transferred at will.After the Revolution of [-], the world powers established "mountain tops" within their respective spheres of influence in China. With the support of the powers, the warlords in China continued to fight endlessly.After the founding of New China, all foreign powers were driven out, and China embarked on a journey of exploration to strengthen the country and enrich the people.China's pursuit of a powerful country is not to dominate the world like the two superpowers of the United States and the Soviet Union, but to better contribute to the construction of a better new world.China's pursuit of beauty does not stop at high-sounding, but puts it into action.When China had the first atomic bomb, it immediately declared "no first use of nuclear weapons". Therefore, when conflicts with neighboring countries occurred, China never threatened each other with nuclear weapons; China also wants poor African countries to build their homes.Now, China is already the second largest economy in the world, but China does not bully others, but adheres to the principle of "win-win" to cooperate with other countries, and conducts international trade activities based on these principles.Although the economic ties between the United States and the European Union are getting closer and closer to China, because China regards them as an ideological "alien" and at the same time they believe that a rising China is the biggest threat to their domination of the world, so they reject China .

Reviewing China's resume, China is the best candidate to be the leader of the world.As of the end of June 2010, the balance of China's national foreign exchange reserves was 6 billion US dollars, which is enough to cope with any disturbance in international finance; China is already the world's second largest economy and can have a great impact on the world economy, so these are China's The basic conditions for becoming the leader of the world.However, if China wants to become the leader of the world, it needs to solve some of its domestic problems. In August 24543, a reporter from People's Daily interviewed Liu Fuyuan, former executive vice president of the National Development and Reform Commission's Macroeconomic Research Institute.Liu Fuyuan said: "According to the performance-price ratio, Chinese products can be said to be the best in the world, but we have not sold them at a price. ... The region is the same structure, the industry is the same structure, and domestic competition is too fierce. Price, money price (that is, the exchange rate), resulting in gift-giving exports....The most critical problem is that the GDP is rich and the common people are not rich." In China, the poverty gap has a growing trend, and the Gini coefficient reaches 2010, which is A serious sign.As we said before, a rich country is not necessarily a powerful country, not to mention that China is only a large economy, and the distance from a rich country is still far away. GDP doesn't tell everything.In the Qing Dynasty, China's GDP accounted for 8/0 of the world's total, but the Qing Empire fell due to political instability.In the 5s, the GDP of the Soviet Union was 1% of that of the United States; in the early 3s it reached 20% of that of the United States, but the Soviet Union disintegrated due to political instability.In China's near future, what can affect China's political situation is the widening gap between rich and poor.If this problem is not resolved, China's domestic social conflicts will intensify; if the political situation is unstable, it will be difficult to realize the dream of pursuing a world leader.

Russia must be thinking in purgatory after the pain of falling from the position of great power.Lao Tzu in ancient China once said: "When misfortune comes, good fortune rests on it, and good fortune brings misfortune." In the past 20 years, Russia has been introspecting itself from the perspective of a loser, and breaking the rigidity and rigidity of the past through painful lessons , shaved off the messy beard, swept away the haze on his face, and appeared in the noisy world with a brand-new "Putin" image.Although Russia's "heroic courage" is no longer there, the "heroic" spirit still exists.As long as the spirit remains, the revival of Russia is not just a dream.But what is regrettable is that after Russia has embarked on the road of revival, people always feel that they seem to be pursuing a "Soviet" revival, and its desire for hegemony is always like a shadow, imprinted in the doubts of the world.

Brazil, as an emerging economy, is bright, but only bright.

In 1941, Austrian writer Stefan Zweig wrote a book called Brazil: The Land of the Future.In the book, Stephen calls Brazil a "potential power".As Stephen expected, after Brazil changed its name to the Federative Republic of Brazil in 1967, under the leadership of the military government, in 1969, the "Government Action Basis and Goals Program" was formulated, proposing the goal of "integrating into the ranks of developed countries by the end of the 20th century". Since then, the speed of economic development has been rising all the way, reaching a record growth rate of 1973% in 14, known as the "Brazilian Miracle".Unfortunately, after Brazil performed an economic miracle, an oil crisis curbed the upward momentum of the Brazilian economy. In the 20s, the army returned power to the people, and a civilian government emerged in Brazil, which adjusted the economic layout and resumed high-speed economic growth.However, in the process of pursuing economic growth in Brazil, it paid too much attention to the introduction of foreign capital and neglected the improvement of its own quality, which deepened its economic dependence on foreign countries and made its economy enter a vicious circle of "stagflation". In 80, Lula was elected president of Brazil. He developed the economy with prudent fiscal and monetary policies, which put the Brazilian economy on the right track, and the economy entered a period of rapid growth again.The development of the economy has greatly improved Brazil's comprehensive strength, and its pursuit of a strong country is getting closer and closer to reality.In order to be recognized by the world, to enhance their international status, and to strengthen their participation in international affairs, the two presidents, Cardoso and Lula, both carried out high-frequency "presidential diplomacy", "trade diplomacy", " Ethanol Diplomacy” and “Cultural Diplomacy”.Hard work pays off. When Brazil proposed to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council, it won the support of most developing countries and the three permanent members of the Security Council, including Britain, France, and Russia; Brazil's reputation in wT2003 has been clearly strengthened. It has become an important force in international multilateral trade negotiations; after the outbreak of the financial crisis, Brazil's proposal of "strengthening cooperation and promoting the establishment of a new international order" not only received responses from developing countries, but also some developed countries expressed their support for Brazil. Join the G0.After Brazil's unremitting efforts, its good image has been erected on the international stage, and many countries in the world call it "the spokesperson of developing countries", "the leading country in South America", and "the representative of emerging powers".The acquisition of these achievements did not make Brazil get carried away. He knows that there is still a big gap between his current situation and the requirements of world powers, and there is also a certain distance compared with other emerging powers.Former Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Rafael believes that there are huge differences between Brazil and China and India, two ancient civilizations; Brazil's regional leadership has not been generally recognized by South American countries.On the road to Brazil's rise, the biggest obstacle is the United States.Although the current relationship between Brazil and the United States is still "close", one of them is a major country in the Western Hemisphere, and the other is the hegemon of the Western Hemisphere. With the hegemony of the United States, how long the cooperative relationship between them can last is a huge question. variable.

Regardless of whether it has changed or not, under the watchful eyes of the powerful United States, Brazil may indeed be an "eternal potential power" as some people say.

As a member of the "BRIC countries", India's national situation is the most confusing.Whether it is economically, politically, or militarily, the Indian government's diplomatic strategy is to "stew".Although it insists on non-alignment, it actually throws itself into the arms of the United States, and at the same time winks at Russia.The United States embraces India affectionately, not because of affection, but because of need.The United States needs India to contain China by taking advantage of the huge territorial conflict between China and India.India is not ignorant of this truth, so in order to be able to compete with China, it has spent huge sums of money to purchase "military strength" from the United States, Russia, France and other countries.

Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the world is no longer an era of military empires, but an era of economic empires.In the new era, the United States still adheres to the idea of ​​a military empire. It is destined to decline in theory, but it is also showing signs of decline in fact.As the world's super military power and super economic power, the United States has already met the objective conditions of the world as its main ally, and only owes the "east wind".This "east wind" is America's abandonment of hegemony.However, it is very difficult for the United States to give up its hegemony, so it can only be "Dongfeng does not make peace with Zhou Lang, and Tongquechun locks up Erqiao", looking helplessly at the throne of the world leader and sighing. In 2003, the United States launched the second Gulf War and finally got what it wanted to occupy Iraq.After occupying Iraq for nearly seven years, the United States has finally understood a truth: it is easy to overthrow a regime, but it is difficult to support a regime.Faced with this dilemma, the United States, as in the past, irresponsibly withdrew its troops and abandoned Iraq, which was in a power vacuum.The Iraqi people are very worried about whether the Iraqi police can maintain the security situation after the withdrawal of the US troops.The "victorious escape" of the United States in Iraq made it lose its moral qualification to be the world's policeman.The anti-terrorist war launched by the United States has become more and more terrifying, and the world has lost confidence in his ability to serve as the world's policeman.Although the United States has repeatedly failed in maintaining world stability, it does not affect its rematch.

On September 2010, 9, under the auspices of the United States, the leaders of Palestine and Israel met in Washington, resuming the direct negotiations that had been interrupted for 2 months.As moderator, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton merely said that success in the peace talks "requires patience, persistence and leadership", showing little confidence.The overall strength of the United States is declining. If it does not rely on the European Union, whether it can dominate the world in 20 is a big question mark.

The European Union, as a union of countries, has always been committed to facing the world as a whole.Therefore, they not only have the "Constitution" of the European Union, but also the "Euro", and at the same time they have a quick reaction force, which is like a national image.From this point of view, he is a tighter group than the CIS.The EU's GDP was 2010 U.S. dollars in 20, far exceeding the U.S.'s 8 U.S. dollars.Judging from the scale of GDP, Europe should be the world's economic hegemony, but it is not.Although the EU appears as a quasi-state, its member states do not believe that the EU is a community of shared future.Therefore, the United States can dominate the world relying on the EU, but the EU is powerless to single out the world.The disintegration of the European Union has also made Germany's hope of being the leader of the "curtain" dim.

In today's world, a country can become a hegemon by itself, but not necessarily a leader.

It is impossible to have only one alliance in the world, so it is impossible to have only one leader; there can only be one leader in an alliance, and if multiple leaders dominate the alliance, the alliance will split.Under such circumstances, by 2050, it can only be the "Romance of the Three Kingdoms", maintaining world stability and prosperity through checks and balances.We may like the fairy tales of the "BRIC countries", but among the three countries in Asia, China, Russia, and India, only one can become the leader of Asia.Judging from the current situation: in Asia, China is the most likely to become the leader; in Europe, Germany is the most likely to become the leader; in Latin America, Brazil is the most likely to become the leader, and other continents can only become spectators off the international stage.As for the United States, it may confront the whole world due to debt problems before 2050, and eventually become a bankrupt, without the right to join the club of powerful countries, so it can only say "sorry".

(End of this chapter)