Snowball Special Issue 050: "12 Ways to Make Money"

Chapter 12 Reflections of a Technological Investor Seven Years Later

省钱炒股，个人投资者，发表时间：2014-12-30，雪球APP下载：http：//xueqiu.com/r/2YviQn；原文链接：http：//xueqiu.com/1217972329/34662355；

In the seven years since I entered the market, I have never formally written a summary. I always feel that things like stock trading do not need to be so formal.Recently, I was taught by Mr. Little Simba that "there is money in the pen", so I decided to write a summary, review the path I have traveled, reflect on the mistakes I have made, and clarify my future investment ideas.At the same time, sharing it with all golfers may help some novices who have just entered the market to avoid detours.

[-]. Investment experience

1. The stage of ignorance
It has been 2007 years since I entered the market in 7. For some investors, I have made some achievements, but I am still losing money.In the first year or two of entering the market, I didn’t understand anything, and I didn’t dare to buy randomly. I thought that ICBC was a big blue chip (in fact, I didn’t know what a blue chip was at that time), so I bought it with a small risk, but it fell all the way, for about a year. If you can't stand the suffering of losses, you will be cut out, losing 50%.I thought I bought a bad stock, I was unlucky, and the stock exchange operation would definitely make money. Later, I followed suit and bought several stocks such as Maanshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. and Zhonghai Haiji.But the strange thing is that these stocks all turned into bad stocks after they got their hands, and they fell again and again, and finally couldn't help but cut their flesh and get out.

2. Pure technical analysis learning stage

I was not convinced, and wondered why others could make money in stocks, but I couldn't? In 2009, I opened a stock account independently, decided to strengthen my studies, and made a comeback.At this time, I began to think independently about how to buy stocks.At the beginning, I studied technical indicators such as K-line charts, moving average systems, MACD golden crosses, and "main trends" of great wisdom. It seemed that I found some linkages between stock prices and these indicators, which seemed to be the case.Then I found a lot of stock books to read, and read "Earn 10000 Points", "Trend Trading Master", "Gann Wall Street 45 Years", "Hu Liyang 100 Stocks Trading" and other books.I feel that the theory of stock market technical analysis is unfathomable and wonderful, the theoretical basis of technical analysis is so rigorous, and the "three major assumptions" are so unbreakable.I also bought stocks such as China Eastern Airlines and Yangtze River Electric Power, but all of them lost money, which was terrible, and it seemed that the losses were even worse.During this period of time, I also spent a lot of time researching various technical indicators and formulas collected on the Internet, but with little success.

For a while, I almost gave up hope on the stock market, so I put the account aside and let it go.Until one day I happened to read Chen Jiangting's "The Wisdom of Stock Trading", some of which are still fresh in my memory: a mature investor must go through at least five years of learning before he can achieve anything; buying stocks is based on his own experience "trial buying" The process of trial and error is a matter of probability.It seems that I have raised my level of thinking in stocks, and rushed into the stock market again, buying stocks such as AVIC Heavy Machinery, Zoomlion, Hainan Coconut Island, etc., but "probability" has never been on my side, and I have always been defeated repeatedly. .

3. Semi-value investment stage

In 2013, I didn’t know where I saw the name O’Neil. Someone commented that “retail investors learn from O’Neil”, so I borrowed a book written by him called “Smiling Proudly in the Stock Market” and learned about the CANLISM stock selection system. In addition to the "teapot cup handle" form, it turns out that fundamentals and technical aspects can also be combined in this way to select stocks. In 2013, when the GEM was booming, I also realized that the opportunity for the GEM was coming, and I went to a securities company to open the GEM trading authority. After 1849, I bought Aofei Animation. This is the best stock I bought. The increase reached 70% in the stage.But the buying position is too light and it doesn't make much money.Later, I bought Venusstar, Pathfinder, Ruiqi, Neusoft Group, Terad and other stocks. Later, it seems that most of these stocks have become big bull stocks, but I either only made small gains, or I was chasing high buys. In the subsequent shocks, the stop loss was out (because there is an iron law in the O'Neill system that the loss should not exceed 8%), and some stocks still lost a lot.At this stage, I feel that I have touched the door frame of making money from investment, but I still feel that something is almost there. The stocks I buy make less money and stop losses more.It is often that one stock makes some money, and the other stocks make mistakes, stop losses and lose more.In 2013, under the great market conditions of the ChiNext Board and the SME Board, the annual income turned out to be negative.

I attributed the reason for my failure in 2013 to my lack of technical proficiency, and I bought a few books to improve my technical level, such as "Handicap", "Trend Tracking", "Principles of Professional Speculation", "Securities Chaos Operation Method" and so on. In the first half of 2014, I was still immersed in the confused world of trend identification, tracking, trial and error, and bottom-hunting in the technical analysis system. Of course, I also considered the fundamentals. During this period, I bought China Merchants Bank and made a little profit. In the process of rising, I wanted to make a wave band, but I lost it and didn't pick it up; I bought Guizhou Bailing, bought and sold during the repeated adjustments at the bottom, but raised the cost, and then broke through the bottom in the first wave of adjustments. Out of the game, and watched the stock double up later.

4. Value-based stage

After learning from the pain, I had to review what went wrong with my investment philosophy.I faintly feel that I paid too much attention to technical aspects before, and did not have a deep understanding of the intrinsic value of stocks.In fact, I have also learned about stock selection based on fundamentals before. In 2013, I bought Gujing tribute wine and highland barley wine based on indicators such as the ROE of the financial statement. Unfortunately, I was caught as soon as I bought it.

So I didn’t dare to buy stocks indiscriminately anymore, and my thinking became extremely conservative. I planned to adopt a bottom-hunting strategy, exclusively buying stocks that were recognized as good stocks after ABC’s three waves fell sharply, and combined with technical aspects to try to buy at the bottom.On April 4 this year, I saw that Tasly, the former white horse stock, experienced a decline for more than half a year, with a price-earnings ratio of less than 3 times. It has experienced three waves of decline in both large and small cycles, and the price reached the previous bottom of 30 yuan. It was nearby, so I rushed in and bought a lot for 36 yuan (lack of funds, don't laugh if you are a master).Sure enough, it rebounded sharply by 37.5% the next day. I naively thought that this white horse stock was about to start again. In the next two days, I couldn't help buying an additional lot, and the cost spread to 7 yuan.Unexpectedly, the decline did not end there. After a short one-week rebound, the stock price fell in a waterfall, and the lowest fell to around 40 yuan, with a loss of more than 35%.But this time I didn't sell it, and I didn't dare to cover my position, so I simply became an ostrich.After a long four-month lock-up, the stock price returned to 10 yuan, but it did not rise sharply. Until now, the stock price has always fluctuated around 40 yuan.It has been more than 40 months, and it has not produced obvious benefits. It is embarrassing to say.To make matters worse, the Dong'e Ejiao and Yunnan Baiyao bought during the same period also fluctuated up and down. Although they did not lose money, they did not make much money.This kind of income can be comforted in a bear market, but in the context of the bullish market in the second half of this year, it makes people dumbfounded.

Since the end of last year, I have paid attention to the platform of Xueqiu, and also learned that there are big Vs such as Little Simba, Crystal Fly Swatter, and Thunder Capital on Xueqiu, but I only read some articles piecemeal, and did not pay attention to their actual operation .It's a pity in retrospect. If I had paid attention to it earlier, my stock performance would not have been so miserable.In fact, I have been paying attention to several financial blogs of Sina before. Although I think their level is also very high, I just didn't make money in the stock market.

Since the end of October, I have focused on the operation of Teacher Little Simba.At the beginning, I didn't understand the logic behind the teacher's operation, and I still looked at the market from the perspective of previous technical analysis and bear market thinking.For example, Mr. Simba bought Jilin Aodong at around 10 yuan at the end of October. I looked at the K-line chart and thought that the adjustment was not in place. As a result, Aodong rose sharply the next day; Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical, China Xidian, The same is true for Ping An, BOE, etc. They always think that the technical point is inappropriate and miss it.This experience made me admire Teacher Simba from the bottom of my heart, and wonder why the teacher is so accurate in stock selection?I began to systematically read the articles published by the teacher before, especially the "five-level buying method", and then I understood the rigorous investment system, amazing strategies and tactics and the overall situation of the teacher.

So I adjusted my position according to the teacher's thinking.Mr. Simba said that "buy brokers in a bull market", and he also thinks that the logic of brokerage's later rise is very obvious.Therefore, taking advantage of the market adjustment in the near future, it has built positions in Guoyuan Securities, Jilin Aodong, BOE, and China Heavy Industry.The price recommended by the teacher is relatively high, but if the logic is correct, I am not afraid of chasing higher prices (it seems to violate the teacher's idea of ​​a very low margin of safety, and I am smart), and I have reserved enough cash in case there is a deep adjustment (I plan to be more than 20%), just increase the position.Tasly and Yunnan Baiyao are not sold either, so I think I will save them as cash and use them as cash, and exchange them with securities companies at an appropriate time.

Two, seven years of reflection

1. How to lose money
Stock selection based on technical aspects is actually to choose an intervention point that you think is suitable, without in-depth analysis of the value of the stock itself.And the choice of any technical point is actually a probabilistic event. Once the market outlook does not develop according to the expected market, it is easy to trigger stop loss in market fluctuations (stop loss is an iron law of the technical school), and several stop losses will make you lose money. The previous profit is wiped out; even if the loss is not stopped, because there is no in-depth research on the stock and no confidence, it will be unable to bear the loss and throw it out.Relying on technical stock selection, good stocks do not dare to take heavy positions, even if they are bought correctly, there is not much profit; in the process of rising, sell as soon as you see the top shape (often a stage top or a false top), and it is easy to miss the later more. Big Quotes.

2. Failure to establish correct investment concepts

It is a commonplace thing to establish the correct concept of value investment from entering the market, but it is not easy to truly understand it, and I made such a mistake at the beginning.When I entered the stock market and began to think about how to trade, as an engineering student, I was unconsciously attracted by the beautiful stock trend graphics and technical analysis theories like mathematics. I spent five years exploring, thinking that I could find a He used a set of methods to beat the market and obtain excess returns, but encountered a seven-year bear market and lost money every year.At first, he also blamed his failure on the bad market environment, thinking that it is normal to lose a little in a bear market.But in the second half of 2014, the bull market started, why not make money or even lose money?I finally realized the limitations of technical analysis.The stock price is the reflection of the market's value and value expectations. It is normal to fluctuate by 20% - 30% under the influence of market news, emotions and other factors. If you think you have some level of technical analysis, you can get a relatively large winning rate , In fact, it is often chasing ups and downs, or buying bottoms and escaping tops, cutting meat and stopping losses repeatedly, and the result is more losses and less gains.On the other hand, some rookies in the stock market who don't understand anything, hear the rumors that they bought stocks and put them in their accounts without paying attention, but they rose sharply.Short-term price fluctuations in the market cannot be accurately predicted, but the fundamentals of enterprises can remain stable or even predictable for a relatively long period of time, and stock investment is to find opportunities with relative certainty on the basis of correct logical analysis Investment targets.To buy and sell stocks through technical aspects, first of all, you dare not take heavy positions, and second, every stop loss is a loss, and it is difficult to hold bullish stocks, and it is easy to fluctuate and get out.Through the understanding of some big Vs in Xueqiu, I found that they must first go through in-depth fundamental research when buying and selling stocks, and technical analysis is only used as a reference for trading.When I first entered the stock market, I had no idea what the value of a stock was.Although I have occasionally used fundamental analysis before, but the level of analysis is limited, and value analysis has not been placed at the core of the investment system at all.

3. Not having a good teacher
It is true that stock market investment ultimately depends on one's own understanding, but if you can have a good teacher as your guide, you should be able to avoid detours.My investment experience in the past seven years is basically a process of working behind closed doors and groping alone.Although there are some experienced stockholders around me, but due to insufficient communication, I have never been able to find a good teacher.Until I met Teacher Simba on Xueqiu, read the teacher’s articles, learned the teacher’s operation, and finally understood why I have been in failure for so many years: It turns out that I have been fighting in and out of the ebb and flow of the market, delusional Defeated the market, but was repeatedly taught by the market.

4. Reflect on your mistakes
Everyone in the stock market makes mistakes, including some big Vs.People in the stock market like to talk about making money and how clever they are. They are unwilling to admit mistakes they make, and they are even more embarrassed to talk about losing money.But I think you have to dare to admit your mistakes, think about why you lost money, and learn from your mistakes in order to really improve yourself.

[-]. The direction of travel

Adhere to the road of value investing, and study stock value in depth before stock selection (this still needs to be learned).Technical analysis may not be completely abandoned, but it should be placed in a secondary position, only for reference and assistance, such as the selection of short-term buying and selling points.

Continue to learn from various masters and big Vs through the Xueqiu platform, and find the works of value masters to study carefully, including Graham, Peter Lynch, Karaman, Munger, Fisher, Little Simba, etc.

Insist on recording your own operations and ideas, reflect more, summarize more, and communicate more.

[-]. Thanks

Thank you Mr. Simba, you are my good teacher on the investment path, you are the one who made me wake up from the wrong investment path and lead me to the right path in the future.Although Mr. Simba has always said that he is not a "value investor" but a "long-term investor", I think this is because he does not want everyone to think that he is a narrow and rigidly endorsed "value school".Mr. Simba’s analysis skills on the intrinsic value of stocks are obvious to all. In fact, I think he is a master who flexibly applies the classic value investment theory in the Chinese market. When choosing stocks, he considers both the asset value of stocks and The so-called "speculative" value such as A-share market preference.For example, Simba recently published "Four Idiots in the Bull Market", which has a vivid analysis of the domestic market's low-priced stocks and concept stocks with the prefix "Zhong".

Thanks to the Xueqiu platform, small investors like me have a platform to learn and communicate with masters and masters.

This is the first long article I posted on Xueqiu, the writing is clumsy, and the reader smiles.I believe that there are still many small investors like me who have been unable to find the right investment path. If you can enlighten everyone, it will not be in vain to spend a few days of typing (I have written for several days and found that writing articles is really tiring. Teacher Ba is indeed a role model).If I get advice from an expert, I will regard it as good advice and appreciate it from the bottom of my heart.

(End of this chapter)