Snowball Special Issue 050: "12 Ways to Make Money"

Chapter 11 Chasing Market Trends with "Combined Punches" (2)
In fact, most of the time, what we earn is only a big trend of money.Making money from the company is reliable, and making money from the money market is equally glorious; naturally, you can’t do a trend without value, let alone a value without trend!When selecting stocks based on fundamentals and technical aspects, no matter how good the fundamentals are, no matter how firmly optimistic a stock is, once the trend goes bad, you should decisively stay away from it.Like Coolpad Group, the current 1.3 yuan Coolpad and the 2.6 yuan Coolpad in the first quarter have not changed fundamentally. The reasons for buying that were seriously underestimated in the past have now become more sufficient. Why am I not interested in buying it now that it has fallen to 1.3 yuan? The reason is that The downward trend of its share price has not changed.

Some friends still ask me from time to time that I have no shares in my heart, are you still optimistic about Panda Electronics, AviChina, and Color Life?I fully understand the thoughts and feelings of these friends. Yes, I was very optimistic about these stocks at the beginning. To be honest, I am still optimistic about these stocks purely in terms of fundamentals. The face has changed, but the "trend" of the stock price trend has changed.As ordinary investors, we cannot predict the future trend of the market, but we can follow the changing context of the market according to the changed "trend" trajectory.Respecting the market, admitting mistakes to the market in a timely manner and quickly correcting mistakes are the basic qualities and skills that every investor must possess.To those friends who profited by following my operation, I sincerely congratulate you!As for those friends who have been trapped because of following my operation, in addition to saying "sorry" to you, I would like to remind you carefully again: my investment style is a typical "quick shooter". In addition to individual stocks, in fact, what should be paid more attention to is my trading mode and awe-inspiring attitude towards the market.

I always think that a mature investor should be fickle, instead of sticking to a certain theory and making mechanical judgments.In my opinion, in this world, except for the wife who cannot be changed, everything else can be changed. People who lack adaptability will often be passive in any situation, and the probability of suffering will increase.

[-]. Lessons from failure

1. Failed to control the sharp retracement of market value.

At the beginning of this year, the start was very smooth. Due to the successful capture of a wave of mobile Internet market, a rapid profit of 3% was achieved in less than 40 months. The short-term rapid profit fueled some unrealistic and overly optimistic expectations for this sector. He relaxed his due vigilance against the market, and as a result, he was hit hard by the next wave of corrections in Internet stocks on Wall Street. By April 4, in less than 8 days, not only were all the previous profits swallowed up, but he fell below his own set. The set account risk control stop loss line is out and the loss is 20%.During this period, the huge losses of the three stocks Hi Sun Technology, Forgame Holdings and DYNAMJAPAN HLDGS later became the three stocks with the largest losses this year.This painful lesson reminded me: first, investment should avoid blind self-optimism; Finding that the "wind" is gone, you must be out of the game unconditionally at the first time.

2. Repeating the same mistakes.

After losing money in Sanjiang Chemical last year, I made a mistake in this stock again this year. What is even more unbelievable is that after carefully reading my trading records, I found that the reasons for buying and stopping losses this year were exactly the same as last year.Last year, I found that too frequent trading was a problem, but this year, not only did not change from last year, but it became more frequent. Last year, Hong Kong stocks traded a total of 106 stocks, and this year it is 132 stocks. Last year, A-shares traded 67 stocks, and this year it is 83 stocks. Among them: the most traded single stock is Zhongzhou Securities, which has the largest profit this year, and it has traded 65 times throughout the year.At the beginning of the year, I reminded myself: Super long-term holdings seem unreliable, and super short-term (intraday trading) must be even more unreliable.Although the current transactions cannot be called super short-term, such frequent transactions are definitely not the mode I pursue.The essence behind frequent trading is that I lack confidence in the grasp of individual stocks and trading time points, and try to keep up with the rhythm of the market through "trial and error". Therefore, the most important thing is to cultivate one's own business literacy and improve one's professional level direction of efforts.

3. Impulsive trading leads to losses in individual stocks.

In addition to the three loss-making stocks mentioned above, the top 10 loss-making stocks this year include: LeTV A, Boya Interactive, Huangchao Furniture, Shanghai Electric, Sanjiang Chemical, Wangsu Technology A, Fosun Pharma There are 7 stocks such as A. Although the reasons for the losses of these individual stocks vary widely, a considerable part is due to impulsive buying caused by emotions.Originally, Jinshan Software did a good job after successfully escaping from the top near 3 yuan in late March, but after August, it did not conform to the principle of "trading on the right" and insisted on its own subjective emotional preference. Blind short-term entry and exit, trying to make short-term gains, all ended in losses in the end, such amateur trading can only show such an inexplicable psychological state: I made too much money on Kingsoft last year, so what if I return some?Hehe, with such a mentality and such an irregular transaction, it is strange not to lose money!Over the years, despite my growing age, the shortcoming of being impulsive and susceptible to market sentiment fluctuations has been following me like a devil until now, which is very painful.Securities trading is the most typical logical and rational action, and it requires the unity of knowledge and action.

Now I realize firsthand that if professional investors want to survive in the secondary market for a long time, their biggest enemy is not the uncertainty of the market, but themselves.For securities investment, "impulse must be the devil!" Therefore, we must remember: securities trading must be the unity of knowledge and action, and you must let your own research and thinking determine actions, and you cannot let your confidence and emotions determine transactions , Trading with confidence and emotion is like "suicide"!
2015. Objectives and operational strategies for [-]:

Profit target: 20%, strive for 30%.

Basic judgment on the market in 2015:

First of all, in the next 2-3 years, although there are still variables in China's macro economy, I am convinced that the "Lehman moment" that was previously expected to buy the bottom in China has become impossible. The stock is the only right direction. In 2015, the key opportunities in the market are A-shares, so we must unconditionally put the main funds, positions, and the main energy of our own research on A-shares.

Secondly, in 2015, at least 3800 points can be seen in the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and a breakthrough of 4200 points cannot be ruled out.

Thirdly, the value return market of securities companies, insurance companies, banks, and central enterprise sectors with the Chinese prefix is ​​far from over; the reform of state-owned enterprises, Internet finance, and the "One Belt, One Belt" will be hot spots for deep mining and repeated speculation in the market; after this round of adjustments, emerging industries The high-growth leading stocks in some subdivided industries will go out of a bigger super bull market. As far as the medium and long term is concerned, the real sustainable big opportunities in the stock market must be growth stocks!
Specific strategies for 2015:

Continue to firmly implement the strategy of "maintaining the principal, making steady profits, and not forgetting sudden profits".

([-]) Keep the principal:
1. Never forget that "preserving principal is the first priority of securities investment".Four factors, such as the rapid dissemination of mobile Internet information, stock index futures, margin financing and securities lending, and tiered funds, are the driving forces behind this wave of A-share supermarkets.But "water can carry a boat and overturn it." Once the stock index undergoes an intermediate adjustment, these levers can also quickly play a role in helping the decline.Therefore, while maintaining cautious optimism about the market outlook, we must maintain a kind of vigilance at all times.Because if you accidentally adjust the weekly level, you will easily lose 20% or more of your principal.

2. Unconditionally avoid stocks with certain defects in known fundamentals, and prohibit high-risk derivative products such as old thousand shares, suspected old thousand shares, warrants, and warrants.

3. Under normal circumstances, the number of individual stocks held shall not be less than 5, and the market value of a single holding shall not exceed 35%.

4. When financing is really needed to buy stocks, the maximum amount of financing shall not exceed 3%.

5. When there is a substantial fundamental reversal (bearish) or a black swan for individual stocks, the position should be cleared or at least 6% of the position should be eliminated as soon as possible.

6. When the market confirms a bear market or systemic risks (such as coups, social crises, wars, etc.), at least 5% of the positions should be withdrawn as early as possible.

7. If you really need to buy "cigarette stocks" with good fundamentals but not much trading volume, the position should not exceed 20%.

8. Considering the risk of the expansion of the amount of funds, it was decided to implement the "cash machine model" again after three years, that is, the vast majority of annual profits should be transferred out in time to avoid market risks.

When there is a sharp retracement in the market value, you must silently read 1-8 at least 3 times a day.

([-]) Steady profit

9. Continue to adhere to the operating strategy of "using combined punches to deal with the market", be a firm follower of the market, and not blindly judge the market subjectively and buy and sell stocks accordingly.

10. Be particularly vigilant against yourself becoming a reverse indicator of the market unknowingly in a good investment situation.

11. 2% to 3% of the middle line of the position should be held in first-class companies in high-growth industries or white horse stocks with good fundamentals but seriously undervalued in cross-border transaction comparisons.At the same time, we must insist on looking for diamonds in the gold pile, not copper mines in the garbage pile.

12. Choosing the right industry is more important than choosing the right stock.The key to the industry is long-term prospects, business models, major technology and policy drivers, and subversion.If you choose the right industry, you will choose the mainstream of the market, just like choosing a cash machine.The mission of investment is to constantly look for stocks that meet "good business, good company, and good price".

13. To learn to be lonely, always remind yourself: successful people are always a minority, investment is a lonely thing, and the essence of investment is patience in the right direction.

14. Efforts should be made to reduce the frequency of operations and the number of individual stocks traded, reduce "trial and error costs" and increase the success rate. In 2015, operations will be reduced by at least 3%.

([-]) Do not forget huge profits

15.任何情况下都不可放弃每一次可能扩大盈利的机会，同时，要设法挖掘1至2只像2012年长城汽车、2013年金山软件、2014年中州证券这种级别的超级大牛股。

16. When you understand the opportunity, you must make a heavy hand at the first time, otherwise it will be a waste of time.

17. In principle, only the mainstream sectors and mainstream leading stocks in the general trend should be traded.

18. The mobile Internet is the greatest technological revolution that has affected human life and the way of existence so far. Seizing the first-class enterprises in this era and holding them properly will be one of the best investment methods at the moment. Technology is still an investment The rich mine is the driving force driving society forward, and it is also a concentration camp for bull stocks. Don’t talk about the Internet bubble lightly. The Internet financial sector such as Oriental Fortune A will be the most anticipated and extremely subversive super bull sector, which must be highly concerned and sustained. focus of tracking.

Thanks to all the online and offline friends who have cared, helped, and supported me this year. I wish myself and all my friends all the best in the New Year, good health, and a prosperous New Year!
(End of this chapter)