Snowball Special Issue 050: "12 Ways to Make Money"

Chapter 10 Chasing Market Trends with "Combined Punches" (1)
Heartless HK, individual investor, published time: 2014-12-29, Xueqiu APP download: http://xueqiu.com/r/2YviQn; original text link:
http://xueqiu.com/8029098291/34618723
In order to let my fans and friends better share my annual research results, I decided to publish my annual investment report two days in advance. It will be revised after the market closes on the 31st).

2014. Performance in [-]:
After a year of hard work in the market, I finally got a report card that I am quite satisfied with: as of today (December 12), the three markets of Hong Kong stock market, A-share market and US stock market in 29 have achieved a total securities investment income of 2014%, which is 136 times, and fully exceeded all the income targets set at the beginning of the year. Although the rate of return this year is far from the level of 1.36, in terms of the absolute amount of annual profit, it has created the highest record in the history of my investment in the secondary market, which is very impressive. excited.Due to the cross-investment of accounts after the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect in October, it is impossible to accurately distinguish the respective profit contributions of the Hong Kong stock market and the A-share market to the account, but it can be roughly confirmed that the order of return on investment in 2009 from high to low is: Hong Kong stocks Greater than A shares, A shares are greater than US stocks.And they all significantly surpassed all indexes including Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (annual increase of 10%), Shanghai Composite Index (2014%) and US stock Dow Jones Index (2%).

So far, I have resigned from the CEO position of a large private enterprise group in early 2009 and switched to professional securities investment for 6 years. The rate of return is:
2009: 276% (80% for the Shanghai Composite Index and 52% for the Hang Seng Index over the same period);
2010: 32% (Shanghai Composite Index -14.3% over the same period, Hang Seng Index 5.3%);
2011: -6.5% (Shanghai Composite Index -21.6% over the same period, Hang Seng Index -20%);
2012: 31.5% (3.17% for the Shanghai Composite Index and 22.9% for the Hang Seng Index over the same period);
2013: 130% (Shanghai Composite Index -6.8% over the same period, Hang Seng Index 2.88%);
2014: 136% (49% for the Shanghai Composite Index and 2% for the Hang Seng Index over the same period);
Although this result is far from some of the elites on Xueqiu who have multiple times a year, it should have greatly surpassed most fund managers.Those who are engaged in securities investment should know that it is not easy to survive in the secondary market of securities, and it is even more difficult for professional investors such as myself who rely on the secondary market to support their families for a long time.For this set of performance data in front of me, I have no reason to be dissatisfied.

[-]. Main experience:
The sustained and stable high returns in 2014 and in recent years are mainly due to the following three aspects:

1. Find wealth opportunities through "market selection".

Six years ago, I created the "6, 5, 3 theory" of securities investment (for details, please refer to the article "My Core Investment Philosophy" on the Japanese Sina blog on September 2, 2009), the core points of this theory are: For successful securities investment, 9% depends on market selection, 4% depends on timing selection, and 50% depends on individual stock selection.In my opinion, the investment master Buffett only solved 30% of the stock selection problems, and the speculation master Soros only solved 20% of the timing (opportunity) problems.In the context of global investment supported by Internet technology, the most important thing is not to choose individual stocks or timing, but to choose the right "market" (including the right sector), which accounts for at least 20% of the importance. Choosing the right market is the core of all investment, and only then can we grasp the main contradiction in the secondary market.

Friends who are familiar with me must know that in the past four or five years, I have always chosen the Hong Kong stock market as the main battlefield for investment. Why?It is to completely avoid the continuous and long bear market of A shares caused by the deformed economic structure in recent years, and the facts have fully proved that my choice is relatively successful.The biggest contribution to my profit this year is also due to the correct "market choice".Looking back at the context of my "market selection" for this year's investment: the first 8 months of this year were basically the Hong Kong stock Internet and the U.S. stock Chinese Internet; from August to October, I basically did Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect in Hong Kong stocks, focusing on H-shares and A stocks The stock with the largest "price difference"; after November, it basically attacked the blue-chip bull market of A-share brokerages in an all-round way. The successful and rapid switching of the three markets and sectors of Hong Kong, the United States, and A has achieved this year's performance.Just imagine, if it is not for quick switching among these three markets according to market changes this year, it will definitely be a complete failure.Because after August, the U.S. stock market has almost been bearish all the way; from August to October, the only bright spot in the Hong Kong stock market is the "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect" sector; completely marginalized by the market.It can be said that this year, several major turning points in these three markets have been stepped on by me fortunately.Therefore, I firmly believe that in order to achieve sustained and stable investment returns, professional investors should first strive to become a global investor. Global "market selection" to discover and look for wealth opportunities, to avoid market systemic risks.Only in this way can we avoid the problems of investors relying on the sky and the size of investment income.

2. Use combination mode to respond to market trend changes.

Successfully discovering a few dark horses can maintain temporary high returns, but sustained and stable high returns must be guaranteed by trading models.This year, many investors in A-shares have experienced such strange phenomena as "fulfilling their positions and emptying their positions" and "losing money earned in the bear market in the bull market".In my opinion, these investor problems lie in the limitations of the trading model.Everyone should remember that a few months ago, there was a heated debate on the snowball about the trading style (or trading model), that is, the GT week of growth stocks and the "old stockholders" of blue chip stocks. .Some investors buy bank stocks with low price-earnings ratios and hold them for a long time, thinking that this is Buffett’s value investment; Pursuing unpopular targets whose stock price is seriously lower than the company's value, I think Lynch's "cigarette butt stock" investment model is the best.In my opinion, this kind of thinking is completely a manifestation of rigid investment thinking.There is no difference between good and bad trading models. The market is constantly changing. Investors should not have a pre-set fixed trading model to passively respond to changes in market trends. Only a trading model that adapts to market trends is the best Mode, the trading mode should constantly change with the change of the market rhythm.

How to adapt?My experience is: use "combined punches" to deal with market trend changes (for details, please refer to my article "The Market Needs Combined Punches to Respond" a year ago).That is, as the market trend continues to change, switch between multiple modes in time.Because the market will not always be popular with a style, a sector, or a trend.There will definitely be "feng shui" turns. When the market "feng shui" turns to the trading style you are familiar with, of course you must attack in an all-round way to try to win the maximum profit; when the market feng shui turns to someone else's doorstep, you should not wait passively , Instead, you should immediately take out your prepared combination punches and run to other people's doors to compete with the market.

"The Prophet of Plumbing Ducks in the Spring River", as a professional investor, it is no exaggeration to say that I am one of the few investors who first perceived this wave of A-share bull market.On July 7 this year, I published "The Bull Market Is Really Coming, Are You Ready?" "Bowen; On August 31th, I sighed for the first time in my WeChat: "This is a bull market with 8-5 big opportunities in my life"; in October, I had a premonition that the A-share market was about to change dramatically Put forward the view that "brokers are the only ones in the bull market" and strongly optimistic about the market of brokerage stocks; in late November, I published a blog post "This is a Super Bull Market", in which I once again emphasized that brokerages, insurance, banks and venture capital are the continuous mainstream of this wave of bull market plate.In the following month, almost like Mrs. Xianglin, I kept reminding on many occasions on the Internet to lock up CITIC Securities, China Life, hold Zhongzhou Securities, and be optimistic about Galaxy Securities!Now these stocks have risen sharply. Although there have been callbacks, and there will be repetitions in the future, I am still optimistic about the market outlook.In fact, these tips of mine are not for others to see, but mainly for myself. The purpose is to constantly remind myself that the recovery of the valuation of the A-share blue chip sector is a historic opportunity. The blue-chip model in the warehouse "combination boxing" should deal with the A-share market to the end. Only in this way can profits be maximized.Interested friends should actually know that in my annual report a year ago, I had already prepared in advance the "combination punch" of the A-share market for this wave of blue chip stocks, including CITIC Securities, China Life, and Ping An of China. Bull market resources prepared in advance in the report.

In fact, it doesn't matter how people are, what is the trend is the most important thing. People can't beat the trend, they can only adapt to the trend.What makes me incomprehensible is that in this round of super bull market of A-share large-cap stocks, some investors have ignored the existence of blue-chip bull market for a long time. It seems that they have natural enemies with securities companies, insurance, banks and other sectors. Do not participate in large-cap stocks", clinging to small-cap growth stocks, why?The market is changing, and there is no reason for us to use a single model to win all over the world!
3. Use band operations to maximize profits.

The top 10 profitable stocks this year are: Zhongzhou Securities, Color Life, Coolpad Group, Beijing Urban Construction A, CITIC Securities A Shares, AviChina, Pacific A, Yueyun Transportation, among these stocks are Coolpad Group, AviChina, etc. In fact, the annual K-line does not have much increase, like Coolpad or even the annual big bear stock, but this has not affected my profit on these stocks at all. There is only one reason, and I am pursuing the swing trend.

(End of this chapter)