Snowball Special Issue No. 028: A Guide to Preventing Fools in the Stock Market

Chapter 10 How Difficult to Think Independently
Linghu Buchong 25495092, individual investor, posted on Xueqiu's "Goodbye, Liar" campaign

Although I predicted that more than 3400 points would fall, I never expected it to fall so badly.That's nothing.It's no big deal if the judgment is correct.What's more, I am almost completely wrong in thinking, and half of what I make is correct?However, the most unacceptable reality is that I didn't take my judgment and feelings seriously at all. Under the influence of a master in the group, I bought Baoquan at a high position of 3400 points, and this The expert group of friends' analysis of the trading volume of Baoquan is completely opposite to mine.What a ridiculous reality, regardless of the general trend or individual stock analysis, I completely oppose him, but he is a master. He has judged correctly countless times, and has earned more than 100% of single returns on US stocks countless times.I adore him, and because I adore him, I completely relinquish my judgment.So I bought Baoquan, which he was extremely optimistic about through volume analysis, even though my understanding of volume was almost completely different from his, why?Because I adore him; because I imagine that this precious power can pull the last wave again before the end of the general trend as he said.That is to say, I am in the last stage of the skyrocketing of Fantasy Baoquan.Jesse Livermore said that there is nothing more expensive than the first and last gears, so expensive that the money lost can be used to build a concrete road across the American continent.And it's still pure "fantasy" because even the last gear is over, and I'm daydreaming to be exact.The problem is, there's more to it than that.It's like ringing the bell for the decline. As soon as my buying is over, the decline begins. At the beginning, it is just a negative decline and a small decline, so my loss is also a small loss, but I am not convinced. I still believe in Baoquan Full of hope, as Jesse Livermore said, when I should be most afraid of small losses turning into huge losses, I am full of hope. I hope that every day and even every hour will be the last day, the last hour, and every day The first time I saw a rebound, I welcomed it like an amnesty, and forgot the suffering of the decline, and rekindled my expectations for Baoquan's last surge.Later, the trend became worse and worse, falling more and more, with each new low step by step.One day when the market rebounded extremely weakly, I concluded in the group that the next day must plummet.Even so, I still didn't sell the treasure right, why?Because I no longer fantasize about the last big rise, I started to calculate, if Baoquan continues to fall, the worst result is to lose all the profits I have made since the bull market in half a year. Then sell after a big rebound. In this way, according to my calculations, if I sell after a big rebound, I should lose a little less than I sell now, although a big rebound will be after the continued plunge and huge losses.Is there anything more ridiculous than me thinking this way?Knowing that there is going to be a big drop, but patiently waiting for the big drop, and then patiently waiting for the big rebound? !Ridiculous, incomparably ridiculous.Sure enough, the market plummeted the next day, and Baoquan followed suit. I was heartbroken, but I couldn't sell it anymore. I lost too much, so I had to wait for a rebound before shipping.The most inexcusable mistake a gambler can make, Kostolany says, is setting a cap on profits while allowing losses to balloon.I really did.So, I continued to hold the precious power and let the losses expand step by step.The market and Baoquan continued to fall, and even plummeted, until one day, the market finally fell to 2950 points, which I judged, and I completely bought the whole position. Of course, everyone knows that the market continued to plummet. , I finally bought my bottom at 1700 points successfully, and lost all the profits since the bull market in half a year.I gave up, I was completely wrong, I suddenly realized that no matter whether there is a rebound or not, I will sell, I must sell.So I sold all the stocks at the market price, and the stocks rose steadily in the bull market.I should be full of hope and let my profit roll into a bigger profit, but I am afraid that my profit will not be able to really get my hands, so the short-term continues, and finally I successfully bought the bottom at 1700 points. When it reached 3400 points, the general skyrocketed When it was more than 2 times, my total profit was only 30%. In such a big downward adjustment of 3400 points, I lost everything. This is the time when I should be most afraid. Fear of turning my small loss into a big loss .And I am full of hope!I hope that every day is the last day, and I hope that I can make less losses in the rebound and ship again.It's ridiculous, a big bull market makes a small profit, and a random small drop makes a big loss.I finally lost all my profits.Of course it was still right to sell this time, because the stock continued to fall, and if I didn't sell, I would lose more.Until all the media no longer fell continuously or even plummeted, they were still extremely optimistic about the market outlook, they still strongly advocated buying more and more as they fell, and they still believed that a big rebound was just around the corner, and finally decided that the market would continue to plummet and began to be generally bearish. Finally stopped falling and rebounded.And what about Baoquan?Baoquan has never risen again, the market has rebounded, and Baoquan has not risen. Now that the market has strengthened again, has Baoquan risen?No!Why?Because of the trading volume, because the trading volume of Baoquan is completely in line with my thinking, and it is a typical target that is completely finished.However, I completely abandoned my own analysis and believed in the analysis of experts.For the price I paid, what is there to complain about?
Even so, some time ago, the same ugly drama almost happened to me again.

The trend of ULU is a typical form of insider collection. It is a form of fundamental changes in the company's operations and insiders continue to buy.But I didn’t dare to buy. Just a week later, there was a good news, and the huge amount rose. In my opinion, the chips collected before have been shipped out due to this good news.As a result, the stock price also began to fall. After falling for a period of time, it rebounded again, but it was still far from the high point of the day.But its trend chart has not been completely destroyed. The group of friends I admire is extremely optimistic about him at this time, because it is a pharmaceutical stock. Once the new drug is approved, it will not be a problem to increase it by 10 times.He believes that the trend of the stock is still raising money, and I think it has been shipped.Although I insisted on my own judgment, I still couldn't stand his extreme optimism and his rigorous analysis in all aspects. I was almost tempted, but I still didn't act, I was hesitating.Even so, one day, I decided to place a low price to take over. The next day, I saw that the stock price was really approaching my price, but I quickly canceled the buy order. How wonderful, fortunately, I canceled.The stock started to fall.A few days later, the stock rose sharply again. I was extremely excited and decided to buy it.So I planned to quickly liquidate my position and buy it. As a result, I failed to liquidate my position in time, and the stock fell again, without the momentum to continue to rise.God.The closing price turned out to be very low, so it continued to fall. My group of friends has fallen by more than 50% since the first transaction.How lucky am I!I almost did it all over again.Now it seems that the stock is indeed the main force and has left the market.Independence - is it really that hard?It takes luck to save me?

Going back to Yili, melamine is involved in all domestic dairy companies. The so-called law does not blame the public, and the country must support it openly and secretly; and in terms of market structure, who has the ability to break the duopoly situation of Yili Mengniu?It seems obvious now.At that time, melamine Yili Mengniu plummeted every day, who had the courage to buy in huge quantities?Afterwards, Yili was approved as an ST, and Yili might be withdrawn from the market. Yili’s large milk powder inventory is a time bomb. No one drinks milk anymore. It’s all soy milk. All experts are bearish on Yili.hehe.Who has the courage to insist on holding Yili?I bought the first Yili from 7 yuan, and I am firmly optimistic about Yili. Now Yili is 20 yuan.I didn't earn a penny, why?It would be wrong to say that he has no faith in Yili.Most of them are expecting to make as much money as possible quickly in the short-term operation of rushing in and grabbing out, but they don't know that they should hold stocks in a bull market, and they should hold stocks patiently. No matter how slowly your Yili rises, don't To envy those stocks that daily limit.This is the price I pay for being a short-term fool. 20 yuan.From a little girl, Yili has grown into a pretty girl.Suddenly, I saw a double-bottom pattern appeared after the National Day of A shares, and the first trading day after the festival rose sharply. Before that, most people began to be generally bearish about the second half of the year. This is a signal of trend reversal. , So, I thought of Yili again, and remembered my belief in Yili again. I resolutely bought Yili heavily and planned to hold it firmly until Yili completely recovered from the melamine. decided to sell.But at this time, an even more incredible coincidence happened.The group of friends I admire also decided not to do short-term, but to do medium and long-term. He bought shares in Joyoung. Why?Because no one drinks milk anymore, they all drink soy milk. Coincidentally, my reason for medium and long-term is completely opposite to his reason for medium and long-term.Joyoung Soymilk Makers and even group friends in the United States use Joyoung Soymilk Makers because they are very popular there.At this time, I wanted to take a heavy position in the medium and long-term Yili, which was opposed by many friends and him. Even another group friend who has more than ten years of investment experience in U.S. stocks and A shares who has always cared about me specially informed me of Yili’s risks individually, and told me Unbelievable about my buy-in.However, I just bought it, and I don't intend to change my mind.Not long after I bought it, Yili released an excellent three-quarter report, and the recovery is getting better and better, and it continues to lead the dairy companies.now it's right!Now reverting.Yili has been rising continuously for a long time, and a large-scale adjustment may occur, but it has not yet given me a signal to sell.I will continue to wait.What does this matter mean?It means that I may not be easily influenced by any person no matter how powerful, experienced, and perfect in analysis in the future.

Going back to today and checking the last sentence, I have to say that although I am already very independent, I still haven't completely shaken off the influence of the so-called masters. It's just that I can recognize mistakes in a very timely manner, stop the loss and get out of the game immediately, and jump out. influences.Speculation is always groping in a dark room. Some things are unavoidable. You just need to realize that you may make mistakes in time and decisively admit the compensation.

In fact, there is no holy grail in trading, because with the advancement of time, experience and level, the demons are constantly upgrading, and my demons are also constantly updating.The reason why masters can't be obsessed is because of the existence of this point.

(End of this chapter)