Snowball Special Issue No. 028: A Guide to Preventing Fools in the Stock Market

Chapter 9 Must-read Investment Knowledge for Beginners

Liang Jian, the founder of i Stocks, the original link: http://xueqiu.com/8186325164/29790496
A stockholder who claims to be a certain genre buys stocks that he thinks meet his standards and has been locked in for a long time. We cannot judge from this that this genre or this type of stock has no money; vice versa, the success of a single transaction can show What's the problem.

Because there are several logical flaws here: Can he represent the genre?His rank?Whether his operation itself followed the philosophy of his genre and so on.

In the real capital market, there is no precise and unified definition of various genres; there is no authoritative organization that certifies each person who claims to be a convert, examines whether the investment target and its price have entered the range, and checks the value of each order. trade.

Therefore, in the disputes among the great gods from all walks of life, the rookie can look at it from three levels from a practical point of view:
[-]. Whether there is a logical relationship between the operation of the great god and the theory it promotes;

[-]. Can the operation of the great god be repeated by himself;

[-]. Can I repeat the operation of the Great God?

Suppose, I burn a stick of incense and bet on Chile to beat Spain.Then I shared my money-making secrets eloquently: before going out, you must use a Philips electric razor to clean your face (the razor must be rechargeable with a wide voltage range of 110V to 250V), avoid red underwear, put an end to CK, and never squint at beautiful women on the road. In case you are asked for a phone number, just report 300017, then go to the left side of the entrance of Chenghuang Temple, the stall opened by Blind C, pick up a handful of Buddhist incense produced in Tieling, a big city, wash your hands with 5100 mineral water, and enter the temple through the back door , avoid all Rinpoche, go directly to Master Xing Xing, let the master consecrate, light incense, the master revealed, "only fast is not broken".Because the English of Chile is similar to chilly, and the latter is reminiscent of the fastest knife written by Gu Long.Therefore, Chile has to bet.

The results prove that this method is feasible?I guess not many golfers agree.There is no necessary connection between betting on Chile and the long preparation work of the previous piece of cloth; it cannot be repeated in the next estimate; it is of no reference value to others.

But the diversity of the world is far beyond the scope of our experience.In my hometown, the industrial chain of the underground lottery is very developed.I was a junior high school classmate, so I made a small fortune.He is neither a banker nor a winner.He runs a Mark Six lottery "newspaper" with a circulation of nearly 2 yuan, priced at [-] yuan. The main content of the "newspaper" is to predict the results of the next issue, and there are columns such as "Miss Bai" and "Huang Daxian".

Can they also predict the Mark Six lottery in Hong Kong?If you have the ability, why not make a big bet yourself?These contents, which seem to seriously violate common sense, have not affected their sales in the slightest.On the one hand, "newspapers" never lack inspirational stories of impoverished lottery players relying on a special code to achieve fortune reversal; in addition, more importantly, "newspapers" are full of immortals who predict various results from time to time. Monty for one.

How many "Miss Bai" and "Huang Daxian" are there in the stock market?

Here is the old article:
Why do all the masters I see return double and double?

It is indeed possible that some people, in a certain period of time, in a certain stock, have several times or even higher returns.But this is definitely not a ubiquitous, sustainably replicable event.The reasons for the illusion that people around you generally have high returns are:

1. Tend to disclose or even exaggerate their own profits, while hiding or downplaying their losses.

2. They also have wrong judgments and huge losses, but they may not have disclosed them; or they have disclosed them, but we have not noticed them; or we have noticed them, but they are not more inspirational than the stories of doubling returns.

3. When a group of people repeat the above things intermittently, what we mainly see is the high returns of others.

4. If you can persist in the annual rate of return of 20% compound interest for a long time, you will have the opportunity to become a world-renowned stock god.But common sense tells us that there are not many stock gods in this world, which means that it is rare in the world to be able to achieve this 20% continuously.

Why are their estimates accurate?
First of all, the concept of "accurate" itself is relatively vague, just like we predict that someone will die eventually, which is 100% accurate, but it has no meaning for his life decision-making, just like the prediction and operation suggestions of some panacea. "There may be a market, buy on lows, reduce positions on highs, control positions, and pay attention to risks."

Secondly, the illusion of "very accurate" may come from selective memory similar to the previous two misunderstandings.When he said something wrong, perhaps more often, he was only right occasionally.

All in all, trust common sense and forget about miracles—even if there were miracles, they have no reproducible meaning for us.

(End of this chapter)